Elvin Garcia

SS Delmarva Shorebirds
Age 20 S/R 6'2" / 165 lbs A HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP35OGV rank#890ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKDSL Orioles B…139.294/.442/.50511273—.172/.304/.276
202518ROKBAL115.234/.368/.3301124—.149/.246/.218
202619A/ROKBAL294.235/.334/.3183036—.174/.256/.231
2027PROJMLE20MLBBAL404.196/.268/.2966660-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBBAL81.206/.278/.3282169-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB22MLBBAL168.214/.286/.3535277-0.0
Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$4M2034Arb-2$7M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
BB%44
Z-Con%37
wRC+28
ISO26
wOBA24
Chase%15
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%
CompsAgustín Ramírez (age 20) · Esmerlyn Valdez (age 20) · Alejandro Flores (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 178 proj PA
wRC+†60
AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .266 / .294
PA178
HR3
K%31
BB%8
ISO101
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -8.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-8BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -1.7 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-2FLDPOS: +1.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +3.9 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
0.00.81.60.20.60.80.90.90.827282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.6$2M+$1M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.8$2M+$2M
2033Arb-1$4M+0.9$2M+$0.2M
2034Arb-2$7M+0.9$2M+$0.0M (cut)
2035Arb-3$9M+0.8$2M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $7M $11M +$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Orioles Black — 139109 321051 27252 121 294442505947 211369 1819 416 73 — — — — — —
202518 ROKFCL Orioles — 11594 22411 17423 12 234368330698 96404 3715 325 24 — — — — — —
202619 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 252217 46813 29965 02 212319300618 88364 3812 289 30 — — — — — —
202619 ROKFCL Orioles — 4238 14200 391 00 368429421850 53483 217 387 70 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Black — 139116 20630 20312 121 172304276580 103232 2214 276 73 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 115101 15211 10623 12 149246218463 69331 549 204 24 — — — — — —
202619 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 252225 36612 211315 02 160247222469 62354 528 212 30 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 4239 10100 2131 00 256310282592 26392 315 272 70 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Black — 139116 20630 20312 121 172304276580 103233 2214 276 73 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Orioles Black — 139109 321051 27252 121 294442505947 211369 1819 416 73 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 115101 15211 10623 12 149246218463 69359 549 204 24 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWFCL Orioles — 11594 22411 17423 12 234368330698 96404 3715 325 24 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 294264 46712 231446 02 174256231487 57373 498 221 35 — — — — — —
202619 A RAW2 teams — 294255 601013 321056 02 235334318652 82388 3611 303 35 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Black — 139116 20630 20312 121 172304276580 103232 2214 276 73 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 115101 15211 10623 12 149246218463 69331 549 204 24 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 294263 46712 231446 02 175256232488 57359 498 221 35 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Black — 139116 20630 20312 121 172304276580 103232 2214 276 73 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 115101 15211 10623 12 149246218463 69331 549 204 24 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 294263 46712 231446 02 175256232488 57359 498 221 35 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLEBAL 0% 404365 711326 311265 62 196268296564 101276 318 257 60 -19 +0 -4 +4 +9 -0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLEBAL 34% 237214 43815 18733 31 203275321596 118279 318 270 69 -9 +0 -2 +3 +5 -0.3
202922 MLB MLEBAL 48% 346311 661229 271045 52 210282345627 135281 308 282 77 -9 +0 -3 +4 +7 -0.1
203023 MLB MLEBAL 54% 417376 8114213 331235 62 217290369659 152283 298 294 85 -7 +0 -2 +4 +9 0.5
203124 MLB MLEBAL 55% 461415 9216216 371346 62 223295387682 165285 298 303 92 -5 +0 -1 +5 +10 1.0
203225 MLB MLEBAL 56% 486438 9917318 391406 72 227299401699 174286 298 310 96 -2 +1 +0 +5 +11 1.5
203326 MLB MLEBAL 56% 499450 10317320 401446 62 228301409710 181286 298 314 99 -1 +0 +0 +5 +11 1.6
203427 MLB MLEBAL 55% 501450 10217319 401456 62 227300406706 179286 298 313 98 -1 +0 +0 +5 +11 1.6
203528 MLB MLEBAL 55% 498449 10017219 401456 52 226298402700 176285 298 310 96 -2 +0 -0 +5 +11 1.4
203629 MLB MLEBAL 53% 487439 9817218 391436 52 223295396691 173284 298 307 94 -4 +0 -1 +5 +11 1.1
203730 MLB MLEBAL 53% 475429 9416217 381415 43 220292389680 168282 308 302 91 -5 -0 -2 +5 +10 0.8
203831 MLB MLEBAL 52% 459415 9015216 361385 37 217287379666 163279 308 297 87 -7 -2 -2 +5 +10 0.3
203932 MLB MLEBAL 56% 438396 8414215 341345 48 212281367648 156275 318 289 82 -9 -2 -3 +5 +9 -0.1
202821 MLB CTXBAL 34% 8174 15302 6251 10 206278328606 122283 317 274 69 -3 +0 -1 +1 +2 -0.1
202922 MLB CTXBAL 48% 168151 33615 13512 21 214286353639 140285 308 287 77 -5 +0 -1 +2 +4 -0.0
203023 MLB CTXBAL 54% 226203 45817 18673 31 221293379672 158288 308 299 85 -4 +0 -1 +2 +5 0.2
203124 MLB CTXBAL 55% 256231 52919 20753 41 227299398697 171290 298 309 92 -3 +0 -1 +3 +6 0.6
203225 MLB CTXBAL 56% 272245 5710111 22783 41 231303411714 181291 298 316 96 -1 +0 +0 +3 +6 0.8
203326 MLB CTXBAL 56% 281252 5810111 23814 41 233305420725 188291 298 320 99 -0 +0 +0 +3 +6 0.9
203427 MLB CTXBAL 55% 277250 5710111 22803 31 232304418722 186291 298 319 98 -1 +0 +0 +3 +6 0.9
203528 MLB CTXBAL 55% 273246 5710111 22803 31 230302413715 183290 298 316 96 -1 +0 -0 +3 +6 0.8
203629 MLB CTXBAL 53% 260234 539110 21763 31 228299407706 179288 298 312 94 -2 +0 -1 +3 +6 0.6
203730 MLB CTXBAL 53% 250225 519110 20743 22 225296399695 175287 308 308 91 -3 -0 -1 +3 +5 0.4
203831 MLB CTXBAL 52% 239215 48819 19723 13 221291390681 169284 308 302 87 -4 -1 -1 +3 +5 0.2
203932 MLB CTXBAL 56% 246222 48819 19753 25 216285377662 162280 308 295 82 -5 -2 -2 +3 +5 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 28292548 57410011105 22583434 3218 225297397694 172290 298 308 85 -32 -1 -8 +30 +61 5.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650585 13223324 521928 74 226298398696 173290 308 308 85 -7 -0 -2 +7 +14 1.2
Career— MLE — 60305424 116520132191 487185777 7541 215289369658 154286 318 294 85 -71 -2 -17 +59 +119 8.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650585 12622321 522008 84 215288371659 156286 318 294 85 -8 -0 -2 +7 +14 1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 252 PAwOBA .282 → .212 (−70)K% 38.1% → 51.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA38.10%÷1.000×1.360——51.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.51%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0458.30%
HBP% /PA1.98%—×0.780—×1.0451.62%
Singles /BIP28.10%÷1.000×0.920×1.033×1.04527.91%
Doubles /BIP6.61%÷1.000×0.830×1.033×1.0455.92%
Triples /BIP0.83%÷1.000×0.910×1.033×1.0450.81%
Home runs /BIP2.48%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0452.07%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .282 → .212; ISO .088 → .061; BABIP .364 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Orioles · 42 PAwOBA .377 → .272 (−105)K% 21.4% → 30.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.43%÷1.000×1.440——30.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.14%÷1.000×0.620—×1.0084.46%
HBP% /PA2.38%—×0.720—×1.0081.73%
Singles /BIP41.38%÷1.000×0.820—×1.00834.19%
Doubles /BIP6.90%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0085.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .377 → .272; ISO .053 → .035; BABIP .483 → .392. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Orioles · 115 PAwOBA .317 → .204 (−113)K% 36.5% → 53.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA36.52%÷0.980×1.440——53.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.91%÷1.020×0.620—×1.0228.64%
HBP% /PA2.61%—×0.720—×1.0221.92%
Singles /BIP30.77%÷0.997×0.820×1.026×1.02226.54%
Doubles /BIP7.69%÷1.033×0.720×1.026×1.0225.63%
Triples /BIP1.92%÷1.150×0.720×1.026×1.0221.26%
Home runs /BIP1.92%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0221.53%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .317 → .204; ISO .096 → .056; BABIP .404 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Orioles Black · 139 PAwOBA .409 → .276 (−133)K% 18.0% → 22.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.99%÷0.977×1.220——22.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA19.42%÷0.964×0.700—×1.02214.42%
HBP% /PA1.44%—×0.700—×1.0221.03%
Singles /BIP19.05%÷1.067×0.680×0.994×1.02212.35%
Doubles /BIP11.90%÷0.988×0.600×0.994×1.0227.35%
Triples /BIP5.95%÷1.000×0.600×0.994×1.0223.63%
Home runs /BIP1.19%÷0.988×0.470—×1.0220.58%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 113, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .409 → .276; ISO .211 → .129; BABIP .369 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).