Elvin Garcia — OGILVIE

Elvin GarciaSS Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 19 S/R 6'2" / 165 lbs A HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION189 act + 126 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .264 / .265

PA126

HR1

K%36

BB%8

BABIP294

ISO80

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-3	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.1M
Totals		$12M		$12M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	139	118	22	7	3	1	18	38	2	12	1	186	304	322	626	136	263	27	13	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	139	109	32	10	5	1	27	25	2	12	1	294	442	505	947	211	369	18	19	416	176	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	115	101	14	2	0	1	10	63	3	1	2	139	237	188	425	50	342	55	9	194	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	115	94	22	4	1	1	17	42	3	1	2	234	368	330	698	96	404	37	15	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	A	BAL	—	189	169	32	5	1	1	13	87	6	0	1	189	271	249	520	59	383	46	7	238	40	-13	-0	+0	+2	+5	-0.6
YTD	19	A	BAL	—	189	161	43	7	1	2	21	61	6	0	1	267	372	360	733	93	418	32	11	337	116	+3	-0	+0	+2	+5	1.1
ROS	19	A	BAL	0%	126	113	21	4	1	1	10	45	2	2	1	186	264	265	529	80	296	36	8	249	49	-7	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
ROS	19	MLB	BAL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		300	—	—	239	41	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	A	BAL	—	189	170	32	5	1	1	13	87	6	0	1	188	271	247	518	59	378	46	7	238	40	-13	-0	+0	+2	+5	-0.6
TOT	19	A	BAL	—	315	282	53	9	2	2	23	132	8	2	2	188	268	255	524	67	342	42	7	243	44	-20	-0	+0	+3	+9	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	BAL	34%	315	280	57	10	2	5	26	106	6	5	2	204	285	307	592	104	297	34	8	264	60	-14	+0	+0	+3	+9	-0.2
2028	21	MLB	BAL	48%	420	375	77	14	2	7	35	137	7	7	3	205	285	309	595	104	298	33	8	274	68	-15	+0	+0	+4	+12	0.1
2029	22	MLB	BAL	54%	491	438	91	16	3	9	41	156	9	9	3	208	289	320	609	112	298	32	8	280	72	-15	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.5
2030	23	MLB	BAL	57%	534	475	101	18	3	11	45	167	9	10	4	213	293	333	626	120	299	31	8	283	75	-15	+0	+0	+6	+15	0.6
2031	24	MLB	BAL	57%	562	499	107	19	3	12	48	176	10	11	4	214	296	337	633	122	300	31	9	285	76	-15	+1	+0	+6	+16	0.8
2032	25	MLB	BAL	57%	576	512	110	20	3	12	49	180	10	12	4	215	296	336	632	121	300	31	9	286	77	-15	+1	+0	+6	+16	0.9
2033	26	MLB	BAL	56%	583	518	110	20	3	12	50	182	10	12	4	212	294	332	626	120	300	31	9	287	77	-15	+1	+0	+6	+17	0.9
2034	27	MLB	BAL	55%	582	516	110	20	3	12	51	182	10	12	4	213	296	333	630	120	300	31	9	287	78	-15	+1	+0	+6	+16	0.9
2035	28	MLB	BAL	59%	577	511	108	19	3	12	51	181	10	12	4	211	295	331	626	119	299	31	9	286	77	-15	+1	-1	+6	+16	0.8
2036	29	MLB	BAL	61%	567	502	107	19	3	12	50	179	10	11	4	213	297	335	632	122	299	32	9	284	76	-16	+1	-1	+6	+16	0.6
2037	30	MLB	BAL	62%	556	492	103	18	3	11	49	177	10	10	4	209	294	325	619	116	298	32	9	281	74	-17	+0	-2	+6	+16	0.3
2038	31	MLB	BAL	63%	542	480	99	17	3	10	48	174	9	10	4	206	291	317	607	110	295	32	9	278	71	-18	+0	-3	+6	+15	0.1
2027	20	MLB	BAL	34%	108	96	21	4	1	2	9	36	2	2	1	219	299	344	643	125	302	33	8	255	53	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.2
2028	21	MLB	BAL	48%	204	181	38	7	1	4	17	66	4	4	1	210	292	326	618	116	302	32	8	264	60	-9	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.1
2029	22	MLB	BAL	54%	266	237	50	9	1	5	22	85	5	5	2	211	292	321	612	110	303	32	8	271	65	-10	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.0
2030	23	MLB	BAL	57%	302	268	58	11	2	6	26	95	5	6	2	216	298	340	637	123	303	31	9	275	68	-11	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.1
2031	24	MLB	BAL	57%	318	282	62	11	2	7	27	99	6	6	2	220	302	348	649	128	304	31	8	276	70	-11	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.2
2032	25	MLB	BAL	57%	325	288	63	11	2	7	28	101	6	7	2	219	301	344	645	125	304	31	9	277	70	-11	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.2
2033	26	MLB	BAL	56%	329	292	63	11	2	7	28	103	6	7	2	216	298	339	637	123	304	31	9	278	71	-11	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.3
2034	27	MLB	BAL	55%	323	286	62	11	2	7	28	101	6	7	2	217	300	343	643	126	304	31	9	278	71	-11	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.3
2035	28	MLB	BAL	59%	341	302	65	12	2	7	30	107	6	7	2	215	299	338	637	123	304	31	9	277	70	-12	+1	-0	+4	+10	0.2
2036	29	MLB	BAL	61%	346	306	66	12	2	7	31	109	6	7	2	216	300	337	637	121	303	32	9	275	69	-12	+1	-1	+4	+10	0.1
2037	30	MLB	BAL	62%	346	306	66	12	2	7	31	110	6	6	2	216	300	337	637	121	302	32	9	273	67	-13	+0	-1	+4	+10	-0.0
2038	31	MLB	BAL	63%	342	303	64	11	2	7	30	110	6	6	2	211	295	330	625	119	300	32	9	269	64	-14	+0	-2	+4	+10	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3550	3148	678	122	21	73	307	1122	64	70	22	215	298	337	635	122	306	32	9	274	68	-130	+5	-4	+38	+101	0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	124	22	4	13	56	205	12	13	4	215	298	335	633	120	307	32	9	274	68	-24	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	6685	5930	1237	223	38	128	581	2143	117	136	48	209	292	324	616	115	300	32	9	280	73	-208	+8	-7	+72	+189	5.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	120	22	4	12	56	208	11	13	5	208	290	322	613	114	299	32	9	280	73	-20	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	139	109	32	10	5	1	27	25	2	12	1	294	442	505	947	211	369	18	19	416	176	+12	+2	—	—	+4	1.8
2025	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	115	94	22	4	1	1	17	42	3	1	2	234	368	330	698	96	404	37	15	325	107	+1	-1	—	—	+3	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,714	73	71	211	290	327	+40	+24	3.4	3.3
	/162	664	13	13	211	290	327	+7.1	+4.3	0.6	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Elvin Garcia (OGILVIE)	19	20→25	33→38	48→53	60	188/268/255	67	342	2	2	42%	7%	44	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Acosta 2019 · A	19	39	37→45	53→55	47	185/259/257	72	250	4	14	26%	8%	42	-2.3	225/287/323	98	318	6	19	29%	7%	70	-0.3	201/262/323	122	304	12	21	36%	6%	57	-0.6
✕Juan Mosquera 2007 · A	19	38	35→30	49→55	44	180/246/238	57	263	3	15	31%	8%	30	-3.1	201/290/246	45	281	1	14	26%	10%	53	-1.5	210/308/237	27	280	0	17	22%	11%	56	-0.4
✕Adrian Placencia 2022 · A	19	36→37	40→45	48→50	44	172/262/264	92	283	8	7	39%	10%	46	-2.0	186/278/306	120	309	13	12	40%	10%	63	-0.8	178/272/297	119	295	14	13	41%	10%	56	-1.1
✕Jose Perez 2023 · A	19	41	36→40	44→45	51	193/275/258	65	253	3	8	24%	9%	50	-1.8	200/306/292	92	270	5	6	25%	12%	72	-0.2	182/303/271	88	244	5	5	24%	13%	64	-0.3
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	50	-1.7	214/303/312	98	272	7	8	22%	10%	76	+0.0	196/299/311	116	258	12	6	27%	12%	71	-0.1
✕Alejandro Flores 2015 · A	19	40	41→50	48→40	43	199/259/294	95	265	9	5	28%	7%	51	-1.7	195/256/288	93	291	8	6	33%	7%	48	-1.9	202/257/342	140	271	13	4	30%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Logan Wagner 2023 · A	19	43→31	36→60	48→50	42	203/264/271	68	294	4	8	31%	7%	47	-1.9	193/285/298	105	300	9	9	35%	10%	65	-0.7	173/266/319	146	258	17	10	37%	9%	60	-0.5
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→36	40→45	47→50	42	190/245/284	93	260	7	9	29%	6%	43	-2.2	187/246/287	100	286	9	8	36%	7%	43	-2.2	205/268/331	127	286	15	12	32%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Junior Valera 2013 · A	20	42	36→40	51→60	45	196/266/265	69	275	2	10	28%	8%	46	-2.0	226/289/310	84	293	3	18	22%	8%	67	-0.5	245/308/338	94	307	3	28	20%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Kleiber Rodriguez 2018 · A	19	37	35→30	46→40	46	175/250/234	59	244	2	5	27%	8%	33	-2.9	219/280/288	69	282	3	5	21%	7%	58	-1.2	240/298/301	61	284	2	4	15%	8%	67	-0.2
✕Allan Castro 2022 · A	19	38→43	38→45	51→55	41	184/252/273	90	271	4	6	32%	7%	43	-2.2	192/261/299	107	277	8	11	31%	8%	54	-1.4	198/272/305	108	273	9	14	29%	9%	57	-1.0
✕Robel García 2012 · A	19	37	43→50	53→40	43	183/255/301	118	276	9	9	35%	8%	52	-1.6	184/251/272	88	280	5	5	33%	8%	42	-2.3	192/262/383	192	272	27	2	39%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Nerwilian Cedeño 2021 · A	19	39→32	35→45	49→50	49	184/269/244	60	270	2	7	30%	10%	43	-2.2	193/268/302	109	302	10	11	36%	9%	58	-1.2	173/244/282	109	262	12	12	37%	8%	40	-1.4
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	41→42	39→45	53→50	42	196/255/285	89	270	5	13	28%	7%	46	-2.0	211/283/320	109	300	10	13	30%	9%	69	-0.4	209/285/321	112	292	12	14	30%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Ghordy Santos 2019 · A	19	37	38→40	51→50	53	176/275/255	79	250	5	16	29%	11%	50	-1.8	207/278/291	84	314	6	15	33%	8%	58	-1.2	179/234/283	104	312	10	11	44%	6%	35	-1.1
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→46	38→30	53→60	41	203/260/286	83	285	4	12	29%	6%	49	-1.8	223/283/291	68	291	2	11	22%	7%	59	-1.1	217/330/261	45	297	1	34	24%	14%	71	-0.2
✕Nomar Fana 2022 · A	19	40	38→50	48→50	41	192/248/270	78	285	5	9	33%	7%	40	-2.4	191/260/292	101	307	9	11	38%	8%	52	-1.6	175/255/295	120	271	14	14	38%	9%	48	-0.6
✕Milkar Perez 2021 · A	19	43	39→40	45→40	44	205/274/289	84	285	6	8	29%	8%	56	-1.3	203/295/261	58	310	2	4	31%	11%	59	-1.1	211/289/292	82	309	5	2	31%	9%	61	-0.6
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	39	36→30	48→50	45	186/255/247	61	260	3	12	28%	8%	37	-2.6	210/266/251	41	261	1	14	19%	7%	42	-2.3	233/291/254	20	278	0	16	15%	7%	50	-0.6
✕Victor Acosta 2023 · A	19	41	40	50	44	196/275/291	95	281	6	15	30%	8%	58	-1.2	186/272/258	72	273	3	11	30%	7%	49	-1.8	173/260/240	67	252	3	12	30%	7%	36	-1.4