Luis Espinoza
P
FCL Orioles
Age 19
RHP
6'2" / 194 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION2 act + 24 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%21.8%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | 11 | 10 | 43 | 180 | 34 | 13 | 2 | 91% | 3.9 | 12.8% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 3.77 | 4.03 | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | 11 | 10 | 43 | 180 | 34 | 13 | 2 | 91% | 3.9 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 11.7% | 1.1% | 3.77 | 3.03 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | 10 | 10 | 39 | 164 | 30 | 15 | 0 | 100% | 3.9 | 12.4% | 11.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 2.33 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | 10 | 10 | 39 | 164 | 30 | 15 | 0 | 100% | 3.9 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 2.33 | 2.71 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | — | — | — | — | 18.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.8% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.38 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 26 | 114 | 24 | 11 | 3 | — | — | 21.1% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 2.5% | 5.43 | 4.04 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | BAL | 5 | 5 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | BAL | 3 | 3 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 4.0 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.27 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 12 | 52 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 4.1 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 3.89 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 43 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 81 | 16 | 100% | 4.6 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 24 | 20 | 84 | 357 | 46 | 37 | 3 | 83% | 3.5 | 12.8% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 3.44 | 3.77 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 48 | 200 | 853 | 109 | 88 | 7 | 83% | 3.5 | 12.8% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 3.44 | 3.77 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Espinoza (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.27 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 25 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Luis Arejula R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.46 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.0% | .318 | 4.42 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.96 | 3.46 | 115 | 88 |
| Edwin Jimenez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.12 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.67 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 277 | +0.55 | 4.12 | 386 | 88 |
| Sheng-En Lin R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.58 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 2.1% | .223 | 4.19 | 17.8% | 3.4% | 61 | +0.61 | 3.58 | 108 | 86 |
| Kyle Glogoski R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.46 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .277 | 3.92 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 93 | +0.46 | 3.43 | 206 | 86 |
| Ramon Marquez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.98 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .331 | 3.00 | 30.4% | 19.8% | 49 | -0.98 | 3.00 | 104 | 83 |
| Juan Bello R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.83 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .256 | 3.93 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 155 | +0.10 | 3.83 | 187 | 83 |
| Moises Castillo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 19.4% | 5.0% | 65 | -0.50 | 3.77 | 101 | 83 |
| Carlos Jimenez R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.11 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 2.0% | .274 | 5.12 | 20.4% | -0.0% | 141 | +1.01 | 4.07 | 257 | 82 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 82 |
| Jose Montero R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.77 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .377 | 3.97 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 234 | +0.20 | 3.77 | 342 | 82 |
| Alejandro Rivera R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.30 | 24.1% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 116 | 82 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2028 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 82 |
| Andry Rondon R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.46 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.98 | 15.6% | 1.1% | 49 | +0.52 | 3.26 | 105 | 82 |
| Chad Donato R 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 82 |
| Miguel Díaz R 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .365 | 4.50 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 233 | +1.10 | 2.22 | 573 | 82 |
| Porter Hodge R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.18 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | .336 | 3.40 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 249 | -0.78 | 2.98 | 349 | 81 |
| Marco Raya R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.77 | 21.4% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .250 | 4.47 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 254 | -0.30 | 3.83 | 358 | 81 |
| Dario Gardea R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.46 | 18.6% | 8.7% | 1.5% | .250 | 3.51 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 50 | +0.05 | 3.12 | 205 | 81 |
| Logan Gragg R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.02 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .343 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 412 | 79 |
| Yorman Gómez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.47 | 18.7% | 6.2% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.93 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 346 | +0.46 | 3.19 | 451 | 79 |