Luis Espinoza — OGILVIE

Luis Espinoza P FCL Orioles

Age 19 RHP 6'2" / 194 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%17.9%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	10	43	180	34	13	2	91%	3.9	12.8%	9.0%	3.8%	1.6%	3.77	4.02	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	10	43	180	34	13	2	91%	3.9	12.8%	9.0%	3.8%	1.6%	3.77	4.02	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	11	10	43	180	34	13	2	91%	3.9	18.9%	7.2%	11.7%	1.1%	3.77	3.03	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	10	10	39	164	30	15	0	100%	3.9	12.4%	11.4%	1.0%	0.0%	2.33	3.50	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	10	10	39	164	30	15	0	100%	3.9	12.4%	11.4%	1.0%	0.0%	2.33	3.50	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	10	10	39	164	30	15	0	100%	3.9	18.3%	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	2.33	2.71	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	4	0	3	17	3	2	0	0%	0.8	—	—	—	—	12.00	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	4	0	3	17	3	2	0	0%	0.8	—	—	—	—	12.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	BAL	4	0	3	17	3	2	0	0%	0.8	17.6%	11.8%	5.9%	0.0%	12.00	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	41	171	33	17	5	100%	4.5	19.4%	9.7%	9.6%	2.8%	4.68	4.61	+0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	20	84	16	8	2	100%	5.0	19.4%	9.7%	9.6%	2.8%	4.68	4.61	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	20	84	16	8	2	100%	5.0	19.4%	9.7%	9.6%	2.8%	4.68	4.23	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	160	80	20	100%	4.6	19.4%	9.7%	9.6%	2.8%	4.68	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		25	20	85	361	47	37	3	80%	3.4	12.9%	10.2%	2.6%	0.8%	3.40	3.74	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	47	200	853	110	87	7	80%	3.4	12.9%	10.2%	2.6%	0.8%	3.40	3.74	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Espinoza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	17.9%	10.4%	2.8%	—	4.61	19.4%	9.6%	41	-0.22	—	—	—
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	88
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	86
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	86
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	86
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	84
Xiomer Guacache R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	16.3%	10.5%	2.5%	.255	5.09	13.0%	0.3%	120	+0.67	4.42	186	84
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	83
Richard Fernandez R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	19	SP	5.10	15.1%	9.3%	3.8%	.309	4.25	16.5%	-0.2%	85	-0.85	3.66	137	83
Fraynel Nova R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP-	3.83	16.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.296	4.17	14.9%	4.9%	110	+0.34	3.38	129	83
Donny Troconis R 2023 · 5.31 FIP	17	SP-	5.31	16.0%	9.4%	4.3%	.293	5.06	14.9%	2.2%	180	-0.25	3.15	224	83
Wuilliams Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	19	SP-	4.21	17.7%	10.6%	2.3%	.363	5.79	21.2%	5.9%	70	+1.58	3.69	135	83
Eric Prado R 2023 · 4.15 FIP	17	SP-	4.15	16.6%	11.5%	1.8%	.222	7.05	14.8%	-0.5%	90	+2.90	4.15	131	82
Regi Grace R 2019 · 3.92 FIP	19	SP	3.92	16.3%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	4.23	20.5%	8.8%	86	+0.31	3.44	224	82
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	82
Manuel Perez R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	17	SP-	4.04	17.5%	11.8%	1.7%	.366	5.09	13.7%	-1.1%	117	+1.05	3.40	188	81
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	81
Alejandro Manzano R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP-	4.89	14.8%	8.6%	3.5%	.347	4.81	15.6%	6.5%	199	-0.08	4.28	273	81
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	18.8%	10.0%	1.09	4.74
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58