Donny Troconis — OGILVIE

Donny Troconis P Stockton Ports

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.7 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 33 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%14.2%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%2.3%

ROS IP33

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	12	8	44	187	44	14	6	67%	3.7	16.0%	9.4%	6.6%	4.3%	4.09	5.31	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	12	8	44	187	44	14	6	67%	3.7	16.0%	9.4%	6.6%	4.3%	4.09	5.31	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	12	8	44	187	44	14	6	67%	3.7	23.5%	7.5%	16.0%	3.2%	4.09	3.83	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	12	8	42	212	45	19	5	67%	3.5	14.4%	11.2%	3.2%	3.9%	6.80	5.43	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	12	8	42	212	45	19	5	67%	3.5	14.4%	11.2%	3.2%	3.9%	6.80	5.43	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	12	8	42	212	45	19	5	67%	3.5	21.2%	9.0%	12.3%	2.4%	6.80	3.86	—
2025	19	A MLE	Stockton Ports	11	9	51	196	39	17	0	82%	4.6	14.7%	10.2%	4.5%	0.0%	1.24	3.15	—
2025	19	A MLE	Stockton Ports	11	9	51	196	39	17	0	82%	4.6	14.7%	10.2%	4.5%	0.0%	1.24	3.15	—
2025	19	A RAW	Stockton Ports	11	9	51	196	39	17	0	82%	4.6	19.9%	8.7%	11.2%	0.0%	1.24	2.57	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	23	16	87	405	83	51	13	70%	3.8	15.2%	14.9%	0.3%	4.2%	6.21	5.99	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	23	16	87	405	83	51	13	70%	3.8	15.2%	14.9%	0.3%	4.2%	6.21	5.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	OAK	23	16	87	405	83	51	13	70%	3.8	20.5%	12.6%	7.9%	3.2%	6.21	4.73	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	90	378	60	42	10	100%	5.6	15.9%	11.2%	4.8%	2.7%	5.10	5.03	-0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	94	397	70	42	11	100%	5.5	17.6%	10.5%	7.1%	2.7%	4.89	4.79	+0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	98	412	76	41	11	100%	5.4	18.6%	10.0%	8.5%	2.6%	4.72	4.63	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	100	422	81	41	11	100%	5.6	19.2%	9.7%	9.4%	2.6%	4.60	4.53	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	101	427	83	41	11	100%	5.9	19.6%	9.6%	9.9%	2.6%	4.52	4.47	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	101	427	84	41	11	100%	5.9	19.8%	9.6%	10.2%	2.6%	4.48	4.45	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	100	421	83	41	11	100%	5.9	19.8%	9.6%	10.1%	2.7%	4.49	4.49	+0.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	97	408	80	40	11	100%	6.0	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	2.8%	4.54	4.58	+0.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	92	390	76	39	11	100%	6.2	19.4%	10.0%	9.4%	2.9%	4.64	4.71	+0.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	87	366	70	38	11	100%	6.2	19.0%	10.3%	8.7%	3.1%	4.79	4.88	+0.0
2037	31	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	81	342	64	36	11	100%	6.2	18.6%	10.7%	8.0%	3.3%	4.97	5.09	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	44	186	30	21	5	100%	5.5	15.9%	11.2%	4.8%	2.6%	5.06	4.99	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	69	291	51	31	8	100%	5.3	17.6%	10.5%	7.1%	2.6%	4.85	4.75	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	82	346	64	35	9	100%	5.5	18.6%	10.0%	8.5%	2.6%	4.68	4.59	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	89	376	72	37	10	100%	5.6	19.2%	9.7%	9.4%	2.6%	4.56	4.49	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	93	393	77	38	10	100%	5.8	19.6%	9.6%	9.9%	2.5%	4.48	4.43	+0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	94	397	78	38	10	100%	5.9	19.8%	9.6%	10.2%	2.5%	4.44	4.41	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	OAK	16	16	95	401	79	39	10	100%	5.9	19.8%	9.6%	10.1%	2.6%	4.45	4.45	+0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	92	388	76	38	10	100%	6.1	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	2.7%	4.50	4.54	+0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	88	372	72	37	11	100%	5.9	19.4%	10.0%	9.4%	2.8%	4.60	4.67	+0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	82	346	66	36	10	100%	5.9	19.0%	10.3%	8.7%	3.0%	4.75	4.84	+0.0
2037	31	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	77	325	61	35	11	100%	5.9	18.6%	10.7%	8.0%	3.2%	4.92	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		155	155	904	3818	726	382	103	100%	5.8	19.0%	10.0%	9.0%	2.7%	4.63	4.25	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	161	84	23	100%	5.8	19.0%	10.0%	9.0%	2.7%	4.63	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		58	41	224	1000	151	121	33	71%	3.9	15.1%	12.1%	2.9%	3.3%	4.78	5.19	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	893	135	108	30	71%	3.9	15.1%	12.1%	2.9%	3.3%	4.78	5.19	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Donny Troconis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	14.2%	11.9%	2.7%	—	4.81	17.4%	6.8%	281	-0.49	—	—	—
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	89
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	89
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	86
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	86
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	85
Osman Gutierrez R 2015 · 4.23 FIP	20	SP-	4.23	13.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.322	5.15	14.6%	1.7%	143	+0.92	4.23	189	85
Yondrei Rojas R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	20	SP-	4.59	14.0%	11.2%	2.3%	.312	4.10	20.9%	10.2%	123	-0.49	2.60	240	85
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	85
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	85
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	85
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	84
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	84
Alejandro Manzano R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP-	4.89	14.8%	8.6%	3.5%	.347	4.81	15.6%	6.5%	199	-0.08	4.28	273	84
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	84
Yovanny Cabrera R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP	5.18	14.5%	13.7%	2.9%	.238	5.21	18.5%	1.6%	149	+0.03	4.39	243	84
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	84
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	83
Erik Manoah Jr. R 2015 · 5.67 FIP	19	SP-	5.67	12.9%	13.1%	3.7%	.269	5.64	14.5%	-0.3%	220	-0.03	3.47	322	83
Luis Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	19	SP-	4.96	12.8%	12.5%	2.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	111	83
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.4	89	18.7%	10.1%	1.07	4.71
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88