Carlos Ochoa
P
DSL Marlins
Age 19
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 18 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%23.3%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP18
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 10 | 2 | 30 | 129 | 39 | 22 | 0 | 20% | 3.0 | 20.6% | 21.3% | -0.8% | 0.0% | 4.15 | 4.06 | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 10 | 2 | 30 | 129 | 39 | 22 | 0 | 20% | 3.0 | 30.2% | 17.1% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 4.15 | 2.70 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | DSL Miami | 9 | 9 | 19 | 82 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 2.1 | — | — | — | — | 4.66 | — | — |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | MIA | 3 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.3% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.36 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 37 | 158 | 44 | 15 | 5 | — | — | 27.7% | 9.7% | 17.9% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 2.10 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | MIA | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | MIA | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 3.86 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 43 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 4.6 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 19 | 11 | 50 | 211 | 53 | 36 | 3 | 58% | 2.6 | 24.9% | 16.8% | 8.1% | 1.4% | 4.35 | 3.91 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 44 | 200 | 850 | 211 | 143 | 12 | 58% | 2.6 | 24.9% | 16.8% | 8.1% | 1.4% | 4.35 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carlos Ochoa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.24 | 23.7% | 14.4% | 20 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Sheng-En Lin R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.58 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 2.1% | .223 | 4.19 | 17.8% | 3.4% | 61 | +0.61 | 3.58 | 108 | 82 |
| Caleb Sampen R 2029 · 3.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.46 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .358 | 3.46 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 139 | +0.00 | 3.03 | 213 | 80 |
| Clarke Schmidt R 2029 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.53 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 13.1% | 108 | -0.30 | 2.76 | 537 | 80 |
| Edwin Jimenez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.12 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.67 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 277 | +0.55 | 4.12 | 386 | 80 |
| Miguel Díaz R 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .365 | 4.50 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 233 | +1.10 | 2.22 | 573 | 79 |
| Amilcar Chirinos R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.26 | 25.6% | 12.3% | 1.4% | .349 | 4.01 | 19.3% | 6.3% | 147 | +0.75 | 2.86 | 212 | 78 |
| Ryan Fernandez R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .357 | 3.52 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 53 | -0.92 | 2.97 | 335 | 78 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.32 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.07 | 3.96 | 247 | 77 |
| Luis Arejula R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.46 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.0% | .318 | 4.42 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.96 | 3.46 | 115 | 77 |
| Fraynel Nova R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.00 | 16.4% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .296 | 4.17 | 14.9% | 4.9% | 110 | +0.17 | 3.49 | 129 | 77 |
| Reny Artiles R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.91 | 24.2% | 12.4% | 2.3% | .419 | 5.75 | 14.8% | -6.5% | 109 | +1.84 | 3.91 | 165 | 77 |
| Grant Holman R 2028 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.18 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 4.8% | .308 | 3.75 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 133 | -1.43 | 3.08 | 184 | 77 |
| Chad Donato R 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 76 |
| Moises Castillo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 19.4% | 5.0% | 65 | -0.50 | 3.77 | 101 | 76 |
| Carlos Jimenez R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.11 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 2.0% | .274 | 5.12 | 20.4% | -0.0% | 141 | +1.01 | 4.07 | 257 | 76 |
| Juan Bello R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.83 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .256 | 3.93 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 155 | +0.10 | 3.83 | 187 | 75 |
| Marco Raya R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.77 | 21.4% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .250 | 4.47 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 254 | -0.30 | 3.83 | 358 | 75 |
| Carson Rudd R 2029 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 75 |
| Carson Fulmer R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .259 | 4.87 | 17.1% | 4.0% | 364 | +0.83 | 3.84 | 879 | 75 |
| Daniel Espino R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.31 | 20.5% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .194 | 3.49 | 32.5% | 21.4% | 110 | -0.82 | 3.35 | 145 | 74 |