Carlos Ochoa — OGILVIE

Carlos Ochoa P DSL Marlins

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 15 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%21.6%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	10	2	30	129	39	22	0	20%	3.0	20.6%	21.3%	-0.8%	0.0%	4.15	4.06	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	10	2	30	129	39	22	0	20%	3.0	20.6%	21.3%	-0.8%	0.0%	4.15	4.06	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	10	2	30	129	39	22	0	20%	3.0	30.2%	17.1%	13.2%	0.0%	4.15	2.70	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	10	10	25	111	29	11	2	100%	2.5	17.8%	12.4%	5.4%	2.5%	5.84	4.55	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	10	10	25	111	29	11	2	100%	2.5	17.8%	12.4%	5.4%	2.5%	5.84	4.55	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	10	10	25	111	29	11	2	100%	2.5	26.1%	9.9%	16.2%	1.8%	5.84	3.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	MIA	3	3	15	63	14	8	2	100%	5.0	21.6%	12.6%	9.0%	3.0%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIA	4	4	23	98	22	11	3	100%	5.8	22.2%	11.4%	10.8%	2.9%	4.72	4.65	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIA	2	2	11	46	10	5	1	100%	5.5	22.2%	11.4%	10.8%	2.9%	4.72	4.65	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	11	48	11	6	1	100%	5.7	22.2%	11.4%	10.8%	2.9%	4.72	4.27	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	192	105	17	100%	4.9	22.2%	11.4%	10.8%	2.9%	4.72	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		20	12	55	240	46	41	3	60%	2.8	19.3%	17.2%	2.1%	1.2%	4.91	4.29	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	44	200	873	168	150	10	60%	2.8	19.3%	17.2%	2.1%	1.2%	4.91	4.29	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Ochoa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	21.6%	12.6%	3.0%	—	4.65	22.2%	10.8%	23	-0.23	—	—	—
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	83
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	82
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	81
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	80
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	79
Tahnaj Thomas R 2018 · 5.06 FIP	19	SP-	5.06	23.0%	15.6%	3.5%	.268	6.04	17.0%	2.7%	61	+0.98	3.81	214	79
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	79
Gilberto Batista R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	19	SP-	4.00	16.9%	11.4%	1.6%	.308	5.86	14.7%	4.9%	172	+1.86	3.63	250	79
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	79
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	78
Jonawel Valdez R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	20	SP-	4.13	17.5%	13.8%	1.4%	.309	5.20	12.5%	0.2%	81	+1.07	4.04	141	78
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	77
Fraynel Nova R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP-	3.83	16.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.296	4.17	14.9%	4.9%	110	+0.34	3.38	129	77
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	77
Cristian Aray R 2024 · 4.99 FIP	17	SP-	4.99	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	.272	4.48	13.0%	-2.3%	72	-0.51	4.44	104	77
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.6%	11.6%	249	-0.34	4.54	318	77
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	77
Aidan Curry R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	21.7%	13.5%	3.5%	.384	4.73	21.5%	9.5%	260	-0.18	3.34	410	77
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	77