Esmeiquel Arrieche

C DSL Blue Jays Blue

Age 20 R/R 5'7" / 152 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1255ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	17	ROKTOR	90	.156/.393/.156	0	0	29	—	.111/.281/.111
2025	18	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	125	.188/.371/.240	0	0	21	—	.115/.258/.154
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBTOR	235	.205/.294/.273	1	2	65	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBTOR	25	.211/.300/.291	0	0	70	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBTOR	79	.215/.303/.305	1	1	75	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

BB%90

Whiff%89

Chase%87

Z-Con%73

K%54

wRC+38

CompsCarlos Rodriguez (age 20) · Chris Suero (age 19) · Eddys Leonard (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj PA

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .292 / .271

PA41

HR0

K%27

BB%10

ISO68

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.1M
2037	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	90	64	10	0	0	0	25	23	0	0	0	156	393	156	550		244	26	28	294	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	125	96	18	3	1	0	26	26	2	0	0	188	371	240	611	52	254	21	21	302	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	90	72	8	0	0	0	17	29	0	0	0	111	281	111	392		182	32	19	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	125	104	12	2	1	0	18	33	2	0	0	115	258	154	412	38	153	26	14	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	90	72	8	0	0	0	17	29	0	0	0	111	281	111	392		186	32	19	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	90	64	10	0	0	0	25	23	0	0	0	156	393	156	550		244	26	28	294	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	125	104	12	2	1	0	18	33	2	0	0	115	258	154	412	38	167	26	14	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	125	96	18	3	1	0	26	26	2	0	0	188	371	240	611	52	254	21	21	302	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	90	73	8	0	0	0	17	29	0	0	0	110	281	110	390		182	32	19	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	125	104	12	2	1	0	18	33	2	0	0	115	258	154	412	38	153	26	14	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	90	73	8	0	0	0	17	29	0	0	0	110	281	110	390		182	32	19	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	125	104	12	2	1	0	18	33	2	0	0	115	258	154	412	38	153	26	14	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	TOR	0%	235	207	42	6	2	1	24	64	2	2	1	205	294	273	567	68	286	27	10	264	65	-10	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	TOR	34%	74	65	14	2	1	1	8	20	1	1	0	210	299	289	588	79	287	27	11	272	70	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	TOR	48%	164	145	31	5	1	2	17	43	1	2	1	214	302	303	605	89	289	26	10	278	75	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	TOR	54%	259	229	51	8	2	4	26	68	2	3	1	218	305	315	620	97	290	26	10	284	78	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	TOR	55%	348	307	67	10	2	6	35	90	3	4	2	221	307	325	633	105	291	26	10	289	81	-8	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.6
2032	25	MLB MLE	TOR	56%	398	351	78	12	3	7	40	103	4	5	2	223	309	334	642	111	291	26	10	292	84	-8	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	TOR	56%	430	380	85	13	3	8	43	111	4	5	2	223	309	336	646	113	291	26	10	293	85	-8	+0	+0	+8	+9	1.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	TOR	60%	443	391	86	13	3	8	45	115	4	5	3	222	308	334	642	111	290	26	10	292	84	-9	-0	+0	+8	+10	0.9
2035	28	MLB MLE	TOR	62%	445	393	87	13	3	8	45	116	4	5	3	220	306	329	635	108	289	26	10	289	82	-10	-0	-1	+8	+10	0.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	TOR	63%	440	389	85	13	3	7	44	116	4	4	4	218	303	322	625	104	288	26	10	285	79	-11	-1	-1	+8	+10	0.4
2037	30	MLB MLE	TOR	63%	431	382	82	12	3	7	43	115	3	4	5	215	299	314	614	100	286	27	10	281	76	-12	-1	-2	+8	+9	0.1
2038	31	MLB MLE	TOR	65%	397	352	74	11	2	6	39	108	3	3	10	210	294	304	599	94	283	27	10	275	72	-13	-3	-3	+7	+9	-0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	TOR	34%	25	22	5	1	0	0	3	7	0	0	0	211	300	291	590	80	289	28	12	273	70	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	TOR	48%	79	70	15	2	1	1	8	21	1	1	0	215	303	305	608	90	290	27	10	279	75	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	TOR	54%	140	124	27	4	1	2	14	37	1	2	1	219	306	317	622	98	291	26	10	285	78	-4	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	TOR	55%	193	170	37	6	1	3	19	50	2	2	1	222	308	327	635	105	293	26	10	290	81	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	TOR	56%	223	197	45	7	2	4	22	58	2	3	1	224	310	335	645	111	293	26	10	293	84	-4	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2033	26	MLB CTX	TOR	56%	242	214	47	7	2	4	24	62	2	3	1	224	310	338	648	113	293	26	10	294	85	-4	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	TOR	60%	264	233	52	8	2	5	27	68	2	3	2	223	309	335	644	112	292	26	10	293	84	-5	-0	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2035	28	MLB CTX	TOR	62%	274	243	54	8	2	5	27	72	2	3	2	221	307	330	637	109	291	26	10	290	82	-6	-0	-0	+5	+6	0.4
2036	29	MLB CTX	TOR	63%	276	244	54	8	2	5	28	73	2	3	2	219	304	324	628	105	289	26	10	286	79	-7	-0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2037	30	MLB CTX	TOR	63%	273	242	52	8	2	4	27	73	2	3	3	216	300	316	616	100	287	27	10	281	76	-8	-1	-1	+5	+6	0.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	TOR	65%	258	229	49	7	2	4	25	70	2	2	7	211	295	305	601	94	284	27	10	275	72	-9	-2	-2	+5	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2247	1988	437	66	17	37	224	591	18	25	20	220	304	326	630	106	292	26	10	287	77	-54	-3	-4	+40	+49	2.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	127	19	5	11	65	171	5	7	6	221	305	329	634	108	293	26	10	287	77	-16	-1	-1	+12	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4085	3597	767	115	27	64	424	1078	35	41	33	213	302	314	616	100	284	26	10	282	77	-94	-5	-7	+69	+84	4.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	121	18	4	10	67	172	6	7	5	212	301	309	610	98	282	26	10	282	77	-16	-1	-1	+12	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Blue Jays Blue · 125 PAwOBA .298 → .199 (−99)K% 20.8% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.80%	÷0.968	×1.220	—	—	26.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.80%	÷0.988	×0.700	—	×0.995	14.66%
HBP% /PA	1.60%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	1.11%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.086	×0.680	×0.978	×0.995	12.18%
Doubles /BIP	4.29%	÷1.023	×0.600	×0.978	×0.995	2.45%
Triples /BIP	1.43%	÷0.900	×0.600	×0.978	×0.995	0.93%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.836	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 117, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .298 → .199; ISO .052 → .032; BABIP .254 → .153. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Blue Jays · 90 PAwOBA .289 → .211 (−78)K% 25.6% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.56%	÷0.973	×1.220	—	—	32.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	27.78%	÷1.015	×0.700	—	×1.008	19.30%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.39%	÷0.958	×0.680	×1.045	×1.008	18.23%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.964	×0.600	×1.045	×1.008	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.600	×1.045	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.892	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 92, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.

Result: wOBA .289 → .211; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .244 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#5Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.4	2,290	37	24	219	302	323	+41	+28	4.4	4.2
/162	664	11	7	+11.9	+8.1	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Esmeiquel Arrieche (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	203/292/271	67	286	0	0	27%	10%	65	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	37	39→45	47→45	49	178/272/261	83	262	6	6	32%	10%	55	-1.9	190/264/264	74	295	5	6	34%	9%	52	-2.2	178/256/266	88	258	7	2	31%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Chris Suero 2023 · A	19	40→38	37→45	47→55	52	185/290/259	74	266	4	8	29%	11%	62	-1.4	194/289/297	103	280	10	14	31%	10%	70	-0.8	181/287/307	126	264	14	27	34%	10%	70	-0.7
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→47	39→50	45→50	45	198/273/287	89	286	6	8	31%	8%	61	-1.5	229/297/377	148	305	16	5	29%	7%	91	+0.6	227/295/375	148	296	16	4	28%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Andrés Nolaya 2024 · A	19	39	36→45	47→50	46	183/256/246	64	263	3	12	30%	8%	45	-2.7	196/270/269	73	284	4	17	30%	8%	55	-1.9	201/281/282	81	280	7	21	28%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	36→44	40→50	47→50	46	175/264/271	96	263	7	8	34%	10%	55	-2.0	204/267/339	135	290	14	10	33%	7%	70	-0.8	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Frank Rodriguez 2022 · A	20	40	36→45	48→30	44	190/262/257	67	265	4	4	28%	7%	50	-2.3	183/239/269	86	267	8	4	33%	5%	43	-2.8	183/244/267	84	241	9	1	27%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	39	37→50	47→45	46	188/260/261	73	250	5	9	26%	8%	50	-2.3	207/250/323	116	289	11	6	31%	5%	60	-1.6	192/240/305	113	271	11	8	32%	6%	50	-1.0
✕Andres Melendez 2021 · A	20	43	37→50	46→40	46	206/267/283	78	262	4	5	22%	7%	57	-1.8	213/291/333	120	335	11	5	36%	9%	78	-0.3	196/288/335	139	309	13	2	37%	11%	76	-0.2
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	38	36→50	50→45	44	181/261/246	65	268	3	13	31%	8%	47	-2.5	202/271/300	98	303	9	5	34%	6%	63	-1.3	206/275/350	144	296	17	5	34%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Christian Cerda 2023 · A	20	40	39→45	50→40	53	189/279/278	88	244	6	9	23%	10%	61	-1.5	198/297/302	104	263	10	4	26%	12%	74	-0.5	187/288/292	105	240	12	2	26%	12%	67	-0.7
✕Christian Cairo 2021 · A	20	39→49	35→40	48→60	44	184/266/243	59	279	2	9	32%	8%	49	-2.4	191/294/274	83	293	6	15	33%	11%	68	-1.0	219/314/286	67	298	3	31	25%	10%	75	-0.4
✕Darrien Miller 2021 · A	20	42	36→45	47→45	43	198/274/269	70	273	3	8	27%	6%	57	-1.8	204/306/321	117	276	13	6	29%	9%	82	+0.0	179/320/285	107	245	9	4	27%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	41	37→40	47→45	46	194/269/265	72	268	4	7	28%	8%	55	-2.0	194/292/269	75	320	6	5	37%	9%	65	-1.2	160/270/224	63	280	5	3	40%	10%	47	-1.1
✕Onil Perez 2023 · A	20	43	36→40	46→55	49	200/268/272	73	258	3	7	22%	8%	55	-1.9	220/284/292	72	276	3	17	20%	7%	65	-1.2	222/294/289	67	273	3	21	18%	8%	67	-0.6
✕Jose D. Hernandez 2023 · A	20	39	36→45	45	51	183/272/252	69	247	3	8	25%	10%	53	-2.1	198/273/303	105	258	9	9	25%	7%	65	-1.2	165/257/278	113	213	12	7	27%	9%	52	-0.7
✕Oswaldo Linares 2023 · A	20	39	38→40	48→40	56	186/292/260	74	232	6	6	21%	11%	63	-1.3	186/285/262	76	274	6	4	31%	11%	61	-1.5	167/269/232	65	254	5	2	33%	11%	47	-0.9
✕Carlos Cauro 2024 · A	19	40	40	46→45	49	193/286/282	89	274	7	4	30%	10%	65	-1.2	204/280/311	107	300	11	5	33%	8%	70	-0.9	198/280/293	95	285	12	5	32%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Marco Guzman 2015 · A	20	38	37→50	44→50	51	181/256/254	72	222	4	7	20%	8%	47	-2.6	202/251/280	78	244	4	7	18%	6%	50	-2.3	218/259/314	97	279	5	8	23%	5%	59	-0.6
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	41→44	36→50	48→45	43	194/262/264	70	258	3	9	25%	6%	51	-2.2	218/281/363	145	322	16	4	35%	7%	81	-0.1	210/279/360	150	310	18	4	36%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Andres Regnault 2018 · A	19	36	36→45	46→45	43	175/246/237	62	253	4	6	31%	7%	39	-3.1	208/272/308	100	260	8	7	22%	6%	65	-1.2	204/273/325	121	234	12	6	18%	6%	69	-0.4

Esmeiquel Arrieche

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps