Esmeiquel ArriecheC DSL Blue Jays Blue
Age 19 R/R 5'7" / 152 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 105 proj PA
wRC+†50
AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .278 / .253
PA105
HR1
K%29
BB%11
ISO69
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -5.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +3.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.30.60.81.01.01.01.00.9+$48M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 33
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT30
scouting grade only
POWER33
scouting grade only
EYE77
scouting grade only
SPEED47
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.0$5M+$5M
2033Pre-Arb$1.0M+1.0$5M+$4M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+1.0$4M+$4M
2035Arb-1$2M+0.9$2M+$1M
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $4M $16M +$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202417 ROKDSL Blue Jays — 9074 9000 15350 00 122270122391 231 3917 204 14 — — — — — —
202417 ROKDSL Blue Jays — 9064 10000 25230 00 156393156550 244 2628 294 83 — — — — — —
202518 ROKDSL Blue Jays Blue — 125106 12210 16402 00 113242151393 38179 3213 195 7 — — — — — —
202518 ROKDSL Blue Jays Blue — 12596 18310 26262 00 188371240611 52254 2121 302 89 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season
202619 MLBTOR — 10592 18311 11311 10 196288283571 87268 3010 251 50 -6 +0 +0 +2 +3 -0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202720 MLBTOR 34% 194170 33512 20552 31 194286271557 76272 2810 263 60 -9 +0 +0 +3 +5 0.0
202821 MLBTOR 48% 328287 57924 34914 52 199292286578 87275 2810 272 66 -13 +0 +0 +6 +9 0.3
202922 MLBTOR 54% 425373 771336 441165 73 206299306604 99277 2710 277 70 -14 +0 +0 +8 +12 0.6
203023 MLBTOR 57% 490432 901538 501335 83 208298312610 104278 2710 280 73 -15 +0 +0 +9 +14 0.8
203124 MLBTOR 57% 520455 961639 541416 93 211303319622 108279 2710 282 74 -15 +1 +0 +9 +15 1.0
203225 MLBTOR 57% 520455 961639 541406 93 211303319622 108279 2710 283 75 -15 +1 +0 +9 +15 1.0
203326 MLBTOR 56% 520455 961639 541406 93 211303319622 108279 2710 284 75 -15 +1 +0 +9 +15 1.0
203427 MLBTOR 55% 520455 961639 541416 93 211303319622 108279 2710 284 75 -15 +1 +0 +9 +15 1.0
203528 MLBTOR 59% 520454 941539 551416 93 207301313614 106278 2711 283 74 -15 +1 -1 +9 +15 0.9
202720 MLBTOR 34% 6759 12201 7191 10 203299288587 85274 2810 257 55 -3 +0 +0 +1 +2 -0.0
202821 MLBTOR 48% 159140 29512 16442 31 207297300597 93277 2810 265 61 -7 +0 +0 +3 +5 0.1
202922 MLBTOR 54% 230201 42723 24633 41 209303308611 100279 2710 270 65 -9 +0 +0 +4 +7 0.2
203023 MLBTOR 57% 277244 51825 28753 52 209298320618 111280 2710 273 67 -10 +0 +0 +5 +8 0.3
203124 MLBTOR 57% 294259 55925 30803 52 212301320622 108281 2710 275 69 -10 +0 +0 +5 +8 0.3
203225 MLBTOR 57% 294259 55925 30793 52 212301320622 108281 2710 276 69 -10 +0 +0 +5 +8 0.4
203326 MLBTOR 56% 294259 55925 30793 52 212301320622 108281 2710 276 70 -10 +0 +0 +5 +8 0.4
203427 MLBTOR 55% 288253 54925 30783 52 213304324628 111280 2710 276 70 -10 +0 +0 +5 +8 0.4
203528 MLBTOR 59% 307269 56925 32843 52 208299312612 104280 2710 275 69 -11 +0 -0 +5 +9 0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 22101943 409671536 22760124 3814 210301316617 106284 2710 274 68 -81 +2 -0 +39 +63 2.3
/ 162G— — 650571 12120411 671777 114 212302319621 107285 2710 274 68 -24 +1 -0 +12 +18 0.7
Career— — 43573808 7741262666 461120449 6924 203297302599 99276 2811 275 69 -153 +4 -1 +78 +123 5.3
/ 162G— — 650568 11619410 691807 104 204298305603 100277 2811 275 69 -23 +0 -0 +12 +18 0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202417 ROKDSL Blue Jays — 9064 10000 25230 00 156393156550 244 2628 294 83 -2 +0 — — +3 0.1
202518 ROKDSL Blue Jays Blue — 12596 18310 26262 00 188371240611 52254 2121 302 89 -2 +0 — — +4 0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10
career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA
72,8326234238305374+28+3311.611.6
/162664158+6.7+7.72.7pk7: 12
#2Brendan Ryanlast yr '15
career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA
92,8721967234295315+30+8510.611.0
/162664415+6.9+19.72.5pk7: 11
#3Mike Mathenylast yr '06
career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA
72,830452244301351+21+317.27.2
/162664110+4.9+7.21.7pk7: 7
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA
91,648311209276313+29+566.46.7
/162664120+11.9+22.42.6pk7: 7
#5Paul Bakolast yr '09
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA
91,844192219297308+17+525.65.8
/16266471+6.1+18.72.0pk7: 6
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13
career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA
92,7834039246289354+28+195.55.6
/162664109+6.7+4.51.3pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons
62,3163739208296311+41+243.53.5
/1626641111+11.9+6.91.0pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Esmeiquel Arrieche (OGILVIE) 19 25→30 28→33 42→47 77 185/278/253 68268 11 29% 11% 50 -0.3 ————————— —————————
✕Oswaldo Linares
2022 · A 		19 42 36→40 47→40 54 195/298/259 64275 48 28% 12% 60 -1.0 196/296/284 88277 85 29% 11% 66 -0.6 173/283/253792469230%12%51-0.6
✕Chris Suero
2023 · A 		19 41→37 38→45 47→55 49 191/290/273 82290 58 32% 11% 61 -1.0 192/289/292 100287 914 33% 10% 65 -0.7 175/282/297122265132636%10%62-0.6
✕Marco Guzman
2014 · A 		19 39 36→45 44→50 48 185/262/256 71249 38 25% 9% 43 -2.2 207/264/294 87251 57 19% 7% 53 -1.5 227/264/3321052916823%5%60-0.3
✕Andrew Caraballo
2019 · A 		19 39 36→40 44→40 51 179/281/251 73268 25 31% 11% 51 -1.7 181/252/259 78304 58 38% 8% 39 -2.5 123/164/1927024071550%5%-20-1.2
✕Richard Rodriguez
2012 · A 		19 39 36→30 48→50 45 186/255/247 61260 312 28% 8% 37 -2.6 210/266/251 41261 114 19% 7% 42 -2.3 233/291/2542027801615%7%50-0.6
✕Jose Perez
2023 · A 		19 41 36→40 44→45 51 193/275/258 65253 38 24% 9% 50 -1.8 200/306/292 92270 56 25% 12% 72 -0.2 182/303/271882445524%13%64-0.3
✕Andrés Nolaya
2023 · A 		18 41 35→45 44→55 47 190/278/250 60289 210 32% 10% 49 -1.8 189/258/257 68296 315 34% 8% 41 -2.3 194/269/2717627852230%7%48-0.6
✕Christian Cerda
2022 · A 		19 39→37 38→40 48→40 47 187/266/269 83245 48 24% 8% 49 -1.8 193/286/294 101260 96 27% 11% 63 -0.8 179/279/2769724010428%12%55-0.8
✕Miguel Moreno
2009 · A 		19 38 39→40 42→40 48 184/276/263 79271 75 32% 10% 52 -1.6 200/281/271 71286 55 29% 9% 56 -1.3 176/264/209332503328%10%29-0.9
✕Daniel Vellojin
2019 · A 		19 39 39→45 47→45 48 189/268/273 83260 66 28% 9% 50 -1.7 214/303/312 98272 78 22% 10% 76 +0.0 196/299/31111625812627%12%71-0.1
✕Kleiber Rodriguez
2018 · A 		19 37 35→30 46→40 46 175/250/234 59244 25 27% 8% 33 -2.9 219/280/288 69282 35 21% 7% 58 -1.2 240/298/301612842415%8%67-0.2
✕Edward Duran
2023 · A 		19 43→45 35→40 48→50 47 200/268/269 69262 27 23% 7% 49 -1.8 224/299/299 75294 48 23% 8% 69 -0.4 225/304/305793045825%8%70-0.2
✕Daniel Santos
2018 · A 		19 37 36→45 46→40 43 178/255/242 64250 36 28% 7% 37 -2.6 197/260/282 85284 66 31% 6% 49 -1.8 186/247/273872697431%6%40-0.7
✕Jhostynxon Garcia
2022 · A 		19 42→41 39→55 47→50 50 201/285/293 92282 68 29% 10% 63 -0.9 187/257/303 116284 109 35% 7% 53 -1.5 217/272/375157286211031%5%75+0.0
✕Gilberto Vizcarra
2019 · A 		20 35 38→45 47→40 46 171/243/241 71215 63 23% 7% 32 -3.0 206/263/288 82261 64 22% 6% 51 -1.7 226/269/325992749121%4%62-0.3
✕Luis Cruz
2012 · A 		19 39 35→40 43→45 42 186/235/238 52254 25 27% 6% 25 -3.5 220/272/314 94275 95 22% 5% 61 -1.0 227/272/301753026326%4%56-0.5
✕Denzer Guzman
2023 · A 		19 38→36 40→45 47→50 42 190/245/284 93260 79 29% 6% 43 -2.2 187/246/287 100286 98 36% 7% 43 -2.2 205/268/331127286151232%7%61-0.7
✕Adrian De Leon
2023 · A 		19 42 38→40 47→45 43 199/271/276 78287 57 30% 8% 53 -1.5 193/290/269 76317 65 37% 9% 60 -1.0 155/264/219642696339%10%36-1.1
✕Omar Alfonzo
2023 · A 		19 36→40 37→45 48→40 48 171/261/237 65254 53 32% 10% 39 -2.5 205/290/309 104318 114 35% 10% 69 -0.4 200/285/30710731713238%10%64-0.5
✕Alixon Suarez
2013 · A 		19 41 39→45 42→40 49 197/283/282 85252 63 23% 8% 59 -1.1 198/259/275 77269 45 26% 6% 46 -2.0 148/180/183352050227%3%-14-1.2