Gabriel Chinchilla
P
DSL Cardinals
+0.1
WAR
Age 19
RHP
6'3" / 163 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.6 · 2032
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.5%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2032
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 6 | 4 | 23 | 92 | 16 | 10 | 0 | 11.8% | 13.6% | 0.0% | 1.57 | 3.82 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 12 | 10 | 48 | 216 | 50 | 21 | 1 | 15.7% | 12.2% | 0.6% | 4.84 | 3.64 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | MLB | STL | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 22.2% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | STL | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | STL | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 37 | 14 | 4 | 23.1% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | STL | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 40 | 14 | 4 | 24.0% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.00 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | STL | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 24.8% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 3.88 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | STL | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 3.79 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | STL | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 25.7% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 3.73 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | STL | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 25.9% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.74 | 3.71 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | STL | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 25.9% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.73 | 3.72 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | STL | 41 | — | 41 | 175 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 25.8% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.74 | 3.75 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | STL | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 44 | 14 | 5 | 25.7% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 3.77 | 3.79 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | STL | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 42 | 13 | 5 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | STL | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 40 | 13 | 5 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 3.93 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | STL | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 14 | 71 | 308 | 45 | 39 | 1 | 14.6% | 12.6% | 0.4% | 3.79 | 3.70 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 39 | 200 | 864 | 126 | 109 | 3 | 14.6% | 12.6% | 0.4% | 3.79 | 3.70 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gabriel Chinchilla (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 22.2% | 9.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.14 | 23.3% | 14.4% | 112 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| Eccel Correa R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.34 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.01 | 14.2% | 3.6% | 122 | -0.33 | 3.99 | 157 | 93 |
| Harold Cortijo R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.46 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .309 | 5.60 | 13.5% | 2.2% | 73 | +1.14 | 4.15 | 179 | 91 |
| Yordin Chalas R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.60 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .294 | 3.94 | 19.9% | 7.8% | 116 | -0.66 | 3.68 | 140 | 91 |
| Luis Victorino R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.27 | 18.9% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .301 | 4.96 | 15.9% | -5.0% | 84 | +0.69 | 4.27 | 118 | 91 |
| Blake Workman R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.94 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.06 | 3.11 | 213 | 91 |
| Carlos Jimenez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.16 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 2.1% | .274 | 5.22 | 20.4% | -0.0% | 141 | +1.06 | 4.07 | 257 | 90 |
| Brandon Komar R 2027 · 4.74 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.74 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .327 | 4.93 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.19 | 3.03 | 538 | 90 |
| Audry Lugo R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.05 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .247 | 5.31 | 15.6% | -0.4% | 77 | +1.26 | 4.05 | 113 | 88 |
| Jose Diaz R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.97 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 1.9% | .326 | 5.60 | 19.2% | 1.1% | 64 | +1.63 | 3.93 | 189 | 88 |
| Edwin Jimenez R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.30 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 3.1% | .330 | 4.81 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 277 | +0.51 | 4.30 | 358 | 88 |
| Luis Aguilar R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.49 | 17.6% | 10.3% | 2.9% | .356 | 4.25 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 111 | -0.24 | 3.51 | 146 | 88 |
| Alimber Santa R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.85 | 17.0% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .304 | 5.09 | 20.9% | 1.8% | 125 | +0.24 | 3.38 | 216 | 88 |
| Patricio Aquino R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.19 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .321 | 3.97 | 15.1% | 5.8% | 234 | -0.22 | 3.56 | 313 | 88 |
| Randry De Leon R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.63 | 18.0% | 11.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 4.37 | 22.2% | -2.6% | 32 | -0.26 | 4.37 | 105 | 88 |
| Alec Kisena R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.01 | 17.6% | 11.8% | 1.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 248 | 88 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.83 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.32 | 4.03 | 266 | 88 |
| Eddy Yean R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.56 | 16.8% | 10.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 4.76 | 17.7% | 3.4% | 120 | +0.20 | 3.83 | 393 | 87 |
| Joel Garcia R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.26 | 18.4% | 13.0% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.91 | 16.7% | 9.5% | 72 | -0.35 | 3.11 | 104 | 87 |
| Jose Morban R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.42 | 18.7% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .333 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 61 | -0.44 | 3.98 | 178 | 87 |
| Logan Gragg R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.12 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .343 | 5.21 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.09 | 4.12 | 412 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $12M | +$8M | ||