Gabriel Chinchilla
P
FCL Cardinals
Age 19
RHP
6'3" / 163 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 24 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 122
ERA5.40
FIP5.40
K%15.3%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%2.2%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 6 | 4 | 23 | 92 | 16 | 10 | 0 | 67% | 3.8 | 11.8% | 13.6% | -1.8% | 0.0% | 1.57 | 3.82 | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 6 | 4 | 23 | 92 | 16 | 10 | 0 | 67% | 3.8 | 17.4% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 1.57 | 3.01 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 12 | 10 | 48 | 216 | 50 | 21 | 1 | 83% | 4.0 | 15.7% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 0.6% | 4.84 | 3.64 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 12 | 10 | 48 | 216 | 50 | 21 | 1 | 83% | 4.0 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 0.5% | 4.84 | 2.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 11 | 6 | 42 | 182 | 48 | 21 | 4 | 55% | 3.8 | 17.9% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.36 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | STL | 3 | 3 | 24 | 100 | 15 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 7.9 | 15.3% | 13.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.3% | 13.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.40 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | STL | — | — | 66 | 282 | 63 | 34 | 7 | — | — | 22.4% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 5.37 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | STL | 4 | 4 | 25 | 105 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.8% | 12.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | STL | 2 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.8% | 12.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 12 | 52 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 12.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 4.74 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 98 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.8% | 12.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 4.74 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 29 | 20 | 113 | 490 | 78 | 65 | 7 | 69% | 3.9 | 15.8% | 13.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 4.37 | 4.22 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 35 | 200 | 865 | 137 | 115 | 12 | 69% | 3.9 | 15.8% | 13.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 4.37 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gabriel Chinchilla (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.40 | 15.3% | 13.1% | 2.8% | — | 5.12 | 16.8% | 4.7% | 25 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Gage Stanifer R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.77 | 16.6% | 14.9% | 2.2% | .342 | 4.31 | 23.9% | 8.2% | 230 | -0.46 | 2.92 | 273 | 88 |
| Reibyn Corona R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.94 | 17.0% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .290 | 5.61 | 14.5% | 1.7% | 63 | +0.67 | 4.38 | 190 | 87 |
| Miguel Vinicio R 2026 · 5.69 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.69 | 13.8% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 1.4% | 47 | -1.71 | 3.63 | 164 | 87 |
| Bryan Polanco R 2027 · 5.33 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.33 | 18.2% | 14.3% | 3.5% | .248 | 5.50 | 13.0% | 1.2% | 243 | +0.17 | 5.24 | 347 | 86 |
| Gerson Calzadilla R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.96 | 12.6% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .287 | 3.43 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 37 | -1.53 | 3.43 | 130 | 86 |
| Christian Fernandez R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 324 | 85 |
| Victor Munoz R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.33 | 14.4% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .273 | 3.64 | 14.1% | 7.7% | 107 | -0.69 | 2.18 | 260 | 85 |
| Jeury Espinal R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.08 | 11.7% | 12.6% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 114 | 85 |
| Jairo Garcia R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.47 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .298 | 5.25 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 96 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 148 | 85 |
| Nolberto Henriquez R 2028 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.75 | 16.0% | 13.4% | 2.4% | .305 | 5.43 | 11.3% | -3.1% | 52 | +0.68 | 4.75 | 108 | 85 |
| Luis Hernandez R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.86 | 16.7% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 6.15 | 21.4% | 4.1% | 64 | +1.29 | 4.16 | 109 | 84 |
| Felix Cepeda R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.5% | 14.6% | 3.3% | .297 | 5.96 | 17.0% | -6.4% | 71 | +0.18 | 3.61 | 204 | 83 |
| Steven Fuentes R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.60 | 12.1% | 10.1% | 2.3% | .319 | 3.98 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 131 | -0.62 | 2.36 | 359 | 83 |
| Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2028 · 5.32 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.32 | 13.9% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .237 | 4.05 | 20.5% | 4.7% | 73 | -1.27 | 3.79 | 101 | 83 |
| Danny Flatt R 2027 · 6.05 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.05 | 14.5% | 15.7% | 4.0% | .304 | 5.46 | 12.5% | -1.1% | 65 | -0.59 | 5.31 | 112 | 83 |
| Sal Biasi R 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 16.0% | 12.6% | 2.5% | .230 | 5.55 | 18.5% | 5.0% | 109 | +0.87 | 4.68 | 188 | 82 |
| Joel Díaz R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 18 | SP- | 5.57 | 15.3% | 11.9% | 4.1% | .335 | 5.17 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 174 | -0.40 | 1.98 | 308 | 82 |
| Abel Duarte R 2028 · 4.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.84 | 12.5% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 3.93 | 13.9% | 6.7% | 79 | -0.91 | 3.19 | 127 | 82 |
| Blas Castaño R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.68 | 10.8% | 13.2% | 1.5% | .307 | 4.22 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 105 | -0.46 | 3.06 | 614 | 82 |
| Kevin Velasco R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.54 | 14.8% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .327 | 5.35 | 20.5% | -1.3% | 15 | +0.81 | 2.18 | 116 | 82 |