Gabriel Chinchilla

P FCL Cardinals

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 163 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.8 · 2032

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1227ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKSTL	6	4	23	1.57	3.01	17.4%	10.9%	—	K 11.8% · BB 13.6% · FIP 3.82
2025	18	ROKSTL	12	10	48	4.84	2.60	23.1%	9.7%	—	K 15.7% · BB 12.2% · FIP 3.65
2026	19	MIX2 levels	19	11	69	5.58	4.18	28.9%	11.8%	—	K 20.4% · BB 14.4% · FIP 5.85
2027PROJ	20	MLBSTL	—	—	0	5.60	5.60	18.5%	15.2%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBSTL	4	4	25	5.24	5.17	19.4%	13.7%	0.0
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBSTL	6	6	37	4.99	4.88	20.6%	12.5%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 91%

CompsBryan Polanco (age 20) · Yeury Tatiz (age 20) · Nolberto Henriquez (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 123

ERA5.60

FIP5.60

K%18.5%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%3.3%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.3M
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.2M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	6	4	23	92	16	10	0	67%	3.8	11.8%	13.6%	-1.8%	0.0%	1.57	3.82	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	6	4	23	92	16	10	0	67%	3.8	11.8%	13.6%	-1.8%	0.0%	1.57	3.82	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	6	4	23	92	16	10	0	67%	3.8	17.4%	10.9%	6.5%	0.0%	1.57	3.01	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	12	10	48	216	50	21	1	83%	4.0	15.7%	12.2%	3.6%	0.6%	4.84	3.65	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	12	10	48	216	50	21	1	83%	4.0	15.7%	12.2%	3.6%	0.6%	4.84	3.65	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	12	10	48	216	50	21	1	83%	4.0	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	0.5%	4.84	2.60	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	69	305	88	36	11	58%	3.6	20.4%	14.4%	6.0%	4.8%	5.58	5.85	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	69	305	88	36	11	58%	3.6	20.4%	14.4%	6.0%	4.8%	5.58	5.85	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	11	69	305	88	36	11	58%	3.6	28.9%	11.8%	17.0%	3.6%	5.58	4.18	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.5%	15.2%	3.3%	3.2%	5.60	5.60	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	50	212	41	29	7	100%	5.6	19.4%	13.7%	5.7%	3.1%	5.36	5.29	+0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	50	212	44	26	6	100%	5.6	20.6%	12.5%	8.1%	3.0%	5.11	5.00	+0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	50	212	45	25	6	100%	5.6	21.5%	11.8%	9.7%	3.0%	4.91	4.80	+0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	STL	9	9	50	212	47	24	6	100%	5.6	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	3.0%	4.76	4.68	+0.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	48	203	46	22	6	100%	6.0	22.5%	11.1%	11.4%	3.0%	4.67	4.61	+0.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	48	204	46	22	6	100%	6.0	22.7%	11.0%	11.6%	3.0%	4.62	4.58	+0.5
2034	27	MLB MLE	STL	8	8	47	199	45	22	6	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.1%	11.6%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	+0.4
2035	28	MLB MLE	STL	7	7	45	190	43	21	6	100%	6.4	22.5%	11.2%	11.3%	3.1%	4.67	4.71	+0.4
2036	29	MLB MLE	STL	7	7	42	176	39	20	6	100%	6.0	22.3%	11.5%	10.8%	3.3%	4.77	4.84	+0.3
2037	30	MLB MLE	STL	6	6	38	160	35	19	6	100%	6.3	21.9%	11.8%	10.2%	3.5%	4.92	5.02	+0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	STL	4	4	25	106	21	14	3	100%	6.2	19.4%	13.7%	5.7%	2.9%	5.24	5.17	+0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	37	156	32	20	4	100%	6.2	20.6%	12.5%	8.1%	2.8%	4.99	4.88	+0.2
2030	23	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	42	177	38	21	5	100%	6.0	21.5%	11.8%	9.7%	2.8%	4.79	4.68	+0.3
2031	24	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	45	190	42	21	5	100%	5.6	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	2.8%	4.65	4.57	+0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	44	186	42	21	5	100%	5.5	22.5%	11.1%	11.4%	2.7%	4.56	4.50	+0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	45	190	43	21	5	100%	5.6	22.7%	11.0%	11.6%	2.7%	4.51	4.47	+0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	STL	8	8	45	190	43	21	5	100%	5.6	22.7%	11.1%	11.6%	2.8%	4.50	4.50	+0.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	43	182	41	20	5	100%	6.1	22.5%	11.2%	11.3%	2.9%	4.55	4.59	+0.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	40	169	38	19	5	100%	5.7	22.3%	11.5%	10.8%	3.0%	4.64	4.71	+0.3
2037	30	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	36	152	33	18	5	100%	6.0	21.9%	11.8%	10.2%	3.2%	4.79	4.89	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	68	400	1690	371	196	48	100%	5.9	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	2.9%	4.69	4.28	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	185	98	24	100%	5.9	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	2.9%	4.69	4.28	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		37	25	141	613	107	83	16	68%	3.8	17.5%	13.5%	4.0%	2.6%	4.67	4.77	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	36	200	872	152	118	23	68%	3.8	17.5%	13.5%	4.0%	2.6%	4.67	4.77	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Cardinals · 42 IPFIP 3.54 → 5.10 (+1.56)K% 26.4% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.37%	—	×0.680	17.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.250	14.42%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.08%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.54 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 27 IPFIP 5.02 → 6.95 (+1.93)K% 32.5% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.52%	—	×0.740	24.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.20%	—	×1.180	14.39%
HR / BF /BF	5.69%	÷1.000	×1.300	7.40%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.02 → 6.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Cardinals · 48 IPFIP 2.63 → 3.65 (+1.02)K% 23.1% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.15%	—	×0.680	15.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.72%	—	×1.250	12.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.46%	÷1.047	×1.400	0.62%

Result: FIP 2.63 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Cardinals · 23 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.82 (+0.81)K% 17.4% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.680	11.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×1.250	13.59%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.307	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Chinchilla (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.60	18.5%	15.2%	3.2%	—	5.03	20.5%	7.9%	150	-0.57	—	—	—
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	93
Yeury Tatiz R 2021 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	17.4%	15.6%	3.5%	.295	5.10	13.0%	-1.0%	100	-0.44	3.73	221	88
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	87
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	86
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	85
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	85
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	83
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	83
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	83
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	83
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.42	301	83
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	83
Ismael Agreda R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SP-	5.28	17.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.269	4.71	21.1%	6.1%	178	-0.57	3.35	272	83
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	82
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	82
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	82
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	82
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	82
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	82
Eduardo Soriano R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	20	SP-	5.06	16.5%	12.5%	3.2%	.306	4.32	15.1%	-4.5%	29	-0.74	4.32	109	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	46	21.5%	12.0%	1.19	4.91
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*