Gabriel Chinchilla

Gabriel Chinchilla P FCL Cardinals

Age 19 RHP 6'3" / 163 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.5 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%15.3%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%1.4%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.1M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	6	4	23	92	16	10	0	67%	3.8	11.8%	13.6%	-1.8%	0.0%	1.57	3.82	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	6	4	23	92	16	10	0	67%	3.8	11.8%	13.6%	-1.8%	0.0%	1.57	3.82	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	6	4	23	92	16	10	0	67%	3.8	17.4%	10.9%	6.5%	0.0%	1.57	3.01	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	12	10	48	216	50	21	1	83%	4.0	15.7%	12.2%	3.6%	0.6%	4.84	3.65	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	12	10	48	216	50	21	1	83%	4.0	15.7%	12.2%	3.6%	0.6%	4.84	3.65	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	12	10	48	216	50	21	1	83%	4.0	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	0.5%	4.84	2.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	19	11	69	305	88	36	11	58%	3.6	20.4%	14.4%	6.0%	4.8%	5.58	5.85	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	19	11	69	305	88	36	11	58%	3.6	20.4%	14.4%	6.0%	4.8%	5.58	5.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	STL	11	6	42	182	48	21	4	55%	3.8	26.4%	11.5%	14.8%	2.2%	5.36	3.54	—
2026	19	A RAW	STL	8	5	27	123	40	15	7	62%	3.4	32.5%	12.2%	20.3%	5.7%	5.93	5.02	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	71	301	51	38	8	100%	5.9	16.8%	12.7%	4.1%	2.8%	5.27	5.20	-0.2
2028	21	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	75	316	56	38	9	100%	5.8	17.8%	11.9%	5.9%	2.7%	5.07	4.99	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	79	332	63	37	9	100%	5.6	19.0%	11.2%	7.8%	2.7%	4.88	4.77	+0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	82	344	68	37	9	100%	5.8	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	2.7%	4.72	4.63	+0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	84	353	72	37	9	100%	5.6	20.4%	10.5%	9.8%	2.6%	4.61	4.54	+0.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	84	357	74	37	9	100%	6.0	20.8%	10.4%	10.3%	2.6%	4.53	4.48	+0.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	84	357	75	37	9	100%	6.0	21.0%	10.4%	10.6%	2.6%	4.49	4.46	+0.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	83	351	74	37	9	100%	5.9	21.0%	10.5%	10.5%	2.7%	4.49	4.50	+0.4
2035	28	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	81	341	71	36	9	100%	6.2	20.8%	10.6%	10.2%	2.8%	4.54	4.58	+0.3
2036	29	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	77	326	74	33	9	100%	5.9	22.6%	10.0%	12.6%	2.9%	4.48	4.44	+0.4
2037	30	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	72	306	68	32	10	100%	6.0	22.2%	10.3%	11.9%	3.1%	4.56	4.62	+0.2
2038	31	MLB MLE	STL	11	11	68	285	62	30	10	100%	6.1	21.9%	10.7%	11.2%	3.3%	4.72	4.82	+0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	STL	6	6	35	148	25	19	4	100%	5.8	16.8%	12.7%	4.1%	2.6%	5.16	5.09	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	55	232	41	28	6	100%	5.5	17.8%	11.9%	5.9%	2.5%	4.96	4.88	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	66	279	53	31	7	100%	5.5	19.0%	11.2%	7.8%	2.5%	4.78	4.67	+0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	73	308	61	33	8	100%	5.6	19.9%	10.8%	9.1%	2.5%	4.62	4.53	+0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	77	325	66	34	8	100%	5.9	20.4%	10.5%	9.8%	2.4%	4.51	4.44	+0.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	79	334	69	35	8	100%	5.6	20.8%	10.4%	10.3%	2.4%	4.43	4.38	+0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	80	338	71	35	8	100%	6.2	21.0%	10.4%	10.6%	2.4%	4.39	4.36	+0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	79	334	70	35	8	100%	6.1	21.0%	10.5%	10.5%	2.5%	4.39	4.40	+0.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	77	325	68	34	8	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.6%	10.2%	2.6%	4.43	4.47	+0.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	73	308	70	31	8	100%	6.1	22.6%	10.0%	12.6%	2.7%	4.37	4.33	+0.4
2037	30	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	69	291	65	30	8	100%	5.8	22.2%	10.3%	11.9%	2.9%	4.44	4.50	+0.2
2038	31	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	64	270	59	29	8	100%	5.8	21.9%	10.7%	11.2%	3.1%	4.59	4.69	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		141	141	827	3493	718	374	90	100%	5.9	20.6%	10.7%	9.8%	2.6%	4.55	4.14	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	174	90	22	100%	5.9	20.6%	10.7%	9.8%	2.6%	4.55	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		37	25	141	613	107	83	16	68%	3.8	17.5%	13.5%	4.0%	2.6%	4.67	4.77	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	36	200	872	152	118	23	68%	3.8	17.5%	13.5%	4.0%	2.6%	4.67	4.77	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Chinchilla (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	15.3%	13.8%	2.8%	—	4.98	17.9%	6.0%	225	-0.51	—	—	—
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	89
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	88
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	88
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	87
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	85
Victor Munoz R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	18	SP-	4.33	14.4%	12.6%	1.6%	.273	3.63	14.1%	7.7%	107	-0.70	2.18	260	85
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	84
Gerson Calzadilla R 2022 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP-	5.14	12.6%	11.6%	3.0%	.287	3.36	17.0%	8.3%	37	-1.78	3.36	130	84
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	84
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	84
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	83
Joel Díaz R 2022 · 5.45 FIP	18	SP-	5.45	15.3%	11.9%	3.9%	.335	4.86	16.2%	8.2%	174	-0.59	1.98	328	83
Luis De Jesus R 2018 · 6.00 FIP	19	SP-	6.00	11.9%	15.6%	3.5%	.274	6.24	12.9%	-8.4%	21	+0.24	4.19	108	83
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	83
Blas Castaño R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	19	SP-	4.68	10.8%	13.2%	1.5%	.307	4.22	13.1%	7.2%	105	-0.46	3.06	633	83
Lisandro Almonte R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	19	SP-	4.89	16.3%	16.4%	2.0%	.298	4.93	19.6%	4.9%	78	+0.04	3.81	128	82
Steven Fuentes R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	18	SP-	4.60	12.1%	10.1%	2.3%	.319	3.85	16.7%	10.2%	131	-0.75	2.38	359	82
Dylan Bice R 2017 · 4.64 FIP	19	SP-	4.64	16.3%	15.7%	1.7%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	201	82
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	81
Elvis Peguero R 2016 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	12.0%	13.8%	1.7%	.275	5.72	9.2%	-3.0%	68	+0.94	3.38	373	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	74	20.2%	10.9%	1.08	4.71
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59