Manuel Marchan — OGILVIE

Manuel Marchan P DSL Rojos

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 165 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 21 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.89

FIP5.89

K%17.3%

BB%18.1%

K-BB%-0.7%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	14	1	24	120	19	18	4	7%	1.7	10.8%	18.8%	-8.0%	4.7%	8.62	7.13	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	14	1	24	120	19	18	4	7%	1.7	10.8%	18.8%	-8.0%	4.7%	8.62	7.13	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	14	1	24	120	19	18	4	7%	1.7	15.8%	15.0%	0.8%	3.3%	8.62	5.93	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	13	9	34	171	38	37	1	69%	2.6	15.1%	27.0%	-11.9%	0.8%	8.74	5.70	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	13	9	34	171	38	37	1	69%	2.6	15.1%	27.0%	-11.9%	0.8%	8.74	5.70	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	13	9	34	171	38	37	1	69%	2.6	22.2%	21.6%	0.6%	0.6%	8.74	4.51	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	14	10	38	186	30	24	2	71%	2.7	11.0%	16.1%	-5.2%	1.5%	6.93	5.04	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	14	10	38	186	30	24	2	71%	2.7	11.0%	16.1%	-5.2%	1.5%	6.93	5.04	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	14	10	38	186	30	24	2	71%	2.7	16.1%	12.9%	3.2%	1.1%	6.93	4.11	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	CIN	5	5	21	89	15	16	3	100%	4.2	17.3%	18.1%	-0.7%	2.9%	5.89	5.89	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	CIN	7	7	36	150	28	23	4	100%	5.1	18.9%	15.4%	3.5%	2.8%	5.53	5.39	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	18	76	14	12	2	100%	4.5	18.9%	15.4%	3.5%	2.8%	5.53	5.39	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	74	14	11	2	100%	4.4	18.9%	15.4%	3.5%	2.8%	5.53	5.01	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	160	126	23	100%	4.8	18.9%	15.4%	3.5%	2.8%	5.53	5.01	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		41	20	96	477	59	99	10	49%	2.3	12.4%	20.7%	-8.3%	2.1%	8.00	5.80	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	42	200	997	124	206	21	49%	2.3	12.4%	20.7%	-8.3%	2.1%	8.00	5.80	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Marchan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.89	17.3%	18.1%	2.9%	—	5.39	18.9%	3.5%	36	-0.50	—	—	—
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	89
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	87
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	86
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	85
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	84
Jesus Tillero R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	18	SP-	5.94	13.3%	18.0%	3.1%	.274	5.23	14.8%	3.8%	129	-0.71	2.26	180	83
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	83
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	82
Jace Beck R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP-	5.13	21.1%	23.7%	1.5%	.347	5.32	25.7%	2.8%	50	+0.19	4.03	216	82
Mason McGwire R 2024 · 6.46 FIP	20	SP-	6.46	11.7%	21.2%	3.0%	.298	4.11	21.4%	10.7%	79	-2.35	4.11	155	82
Jose Alberto Rivera R 2017 · 5.65 FIP	20	SW	5.65	16.1%	19.2%	2.7%	.185	3.68	20.3%	9.9%	115	-1.97	3.39	163	82
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	82
Aneuris Rodriguez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	20	SW	5.22	16.0%	18.8%	2.0%	.310	6.65	14.6%	-15.5%	14	+1.43	3.15	118	81
Bryan Sanchez R 2023 · 6.58 FIP	20	SP-	6.58	15.7%	19.3%	4.3%	.296	5.63	14.6%	-3.0%	65	-0.95	2.99	142	81
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	81
Wellington Aracena R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	19	SP-	5.43	18.9%	24.7%	1.5%	.343	3.94	20.0%	4.8%	196	-1.49	3.20	304	80
Abraham Parra R 2024 · 5.40 FIP	18	SP-	5.40	14.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.376	4.82	15.3%	1.3%	181	-0.58	4.16	243	80
Kamdyn Perry R 2024 · 5.61 FIP	18	SW	5.61	12.3%	18.4%	2.2%	.300	5.55	14.9%	1.0%	116	-0.06	5.31	142	80
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	80
Mason Denaburg R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	19	SP-	4.98	12.8%	17.3%	1.4%	.328	4.95	16.3%	-0.1%	39	-0.03	4.48	151	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	18.3%	16.4%	1.11	5.66
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43