Abraham Parra
P
Fort Wayne TinCaps
Age 20
RHP
6'2" / 170 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.2 · 2032
2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145136vR 127
ERA5.61
FIP5.61
K%13.9%
BB%13.2%
K-BB%0.6%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 10 | 5 | 26 | 111 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 50% | 2.6 | 8.6% | 9.0% | -0.4% | 1.1% | 3.46 | 4.11 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 10 | 5 | 26 | 111 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 50% | 2.6 | 12.6% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 0.9% | 3.46 | 3.45 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Padres | 13 | 7 | 36 | 185 | 40 | 25 | 3 | 54% | 2.7 | 14.7% | 16.9% | -2.2% | 2.9% | 9.59 | 5.59 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Padres | 13 | 7 | 36 | 185 | 40 | 25 | 3 | 54% | 2.7 | 21.6% | 13.5% | 8.1% | 1.6% | 9.59 | 4.05 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 11 | 88 | 389 | 80 | 35 | 7 | 55% | 4.4 | 15.0% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.13 | 4.84 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 11 | 88 | 389 | 80 | 35 | 7 | 55% | 4.4 | 20.6% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 1.8% | 5.13 | 3.51 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 15 | 13 | 62 | 284 | 61 | 40 | 6 | 87% | 4.2 | 16.5% | 16.2% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 5.49 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 57 | 242 | 33 | 32 | 7 | 100% | 4.8 | 13.9% | 13.2% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 5.61 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.9% | 13.2% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 5.55 | 5.55 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | SD | — | — | 120 | 526 | 94 | 72 | 13 | — | — | 18.0% | 13.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 5.55 | 5.40 | +0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 20 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 13.9% | 13.2% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 5.55 | 5.17 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 60 | 254 | 40 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.37 | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 47 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.5% | 11.4% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 5.13 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 66 | 277 | 51 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.6% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 55 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.3% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.81 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 56 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.67 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 57 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 56 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.69 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 54 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 51 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.5% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | SD | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 5.31 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | SD | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 34 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.5% | 11.4% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 5.08 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 43 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.6% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 4.89 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 49 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.3% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 51 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 53 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.63 | 4.60 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 54 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.63 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 52 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.7% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 49 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 85 | 85 | 501 | 2115 | 404 | 228 | 58 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.1% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.37 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 161 | 91 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.1% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 58 | 36 | 212 | 969 | 142 | 131 | 25 | 62% | 3.6 | 14.7% | 13.5% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 5.78 | 5.00 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 34 | 200 | 916 | 134 | 124 | 24 | 62% | 3.6 | 14.7% | 13.5% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 5.78 | 5.00 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Abraham Parra (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.61 | 13.9% | 13.2% | 3.0% | — | 5.04 | 17.4% | 5.9% | 189 | -0.57 | — | — | — |
| Nolberto Henriquez R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.75 | 16.0% | 13.4% | 2.4% | .305 | 5.43 | 11.3% | -3.1% | 52 | +0.68 | 4.75 | 108 | 89 |
| Erik Manoah Jr. R 2025 · 5.67 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.67 | 12.9% | 13.1% | 3.7% | .269 | 5.62 | 14.5% | -0.3% | 220 | -0.05 | 3.44 | 322 | 87 |
| Will Childers R 2028 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.30 | 11.8% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.22 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 143 | -1.08 | 3.50 | 202 | 87 |
| Abel Duarte R 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.84 | 12.5% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 3.93 | 13.9% | 6.7% | 79 | -0.91 | 3.19 | 127 | 86 |
| Josh Swales R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.43 | 11.8% | 14.6% | 2.7% | .356 | 5.63 | 15.1% | 1.4% | 66 | +0.20 | 5.43 | 129 | 86 |
| Sal Biasi R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 16.0% | 12.6% | 2.5% | .230 | 5.55 | 18.5% | 5.0% | 109 | +0.87 | 4.68 | 188 | 86 |
| Danny Flatt R 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.05 | 14.5% | 15.7% | 4.0% | .304 | 5.46 | 12.5% | -1.1% | 65 | -0.59 | 5.31 | 112 | 86 |
| Juan Gomez R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.39 | 10.9% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .345 | 3.58 | 11.2% | -0.1% | 61 | -1.81 | 3.58 | 113 | 85 |
| Miguel Vinicio R 2025 · 5.69 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.69 | 13.8% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 1.4% | 47 | -1.71 | 3.63 | 164 | 85 |
| Felix Cepeda R 2025 · 5.78 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.5% | 14.6% | 3.3% | .297 | 5.96 | 17.0% | -6.4% | 71 | +0.18 | 3.61 | 204 | 85 |
| Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.47 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .298 | 5.25 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 96 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 148 | 85 |
| Christian Fernandez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 324 | 85 |
| Luis Mateo R 2028 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.17 | 11.4% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .315 | 5.67 | 15.0% | -1.3% | 55 | +0.50 | 4.52 | 112 | 85 |
| Luis Hernandez R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.86 | 16.7% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 6.15 | 21.4% | 4.1% | 64 | +1.29 | 4.16 | 109 | 85 |
| Jeury Espinal R 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.08 | 11.7% | 12.6% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 114 | 84 |
| Bryan Polanco R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.33 | 18.2% | 14.3% | 3.5% | .248 | 5.50 | 13.0% | 1.2% | 243 | +0.17 | 5.24 | 347 | 84 |
| Denis Diaz R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.51 | 12.7% | 16.6% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.84 | 11.9% | -4.9% | 92 | +0.33 | 3.39 | 129 | 84 |
| Moises Ruiz R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.62 | 8.7% | 12.8% | 3.0% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 104 | 84 |
| Maiker Manuel R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.0% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .278 | 4.62 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 51 | +0.06 | 4.56 | 148 | 84 |
| Luis Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.96 | 12.8% | 12.5% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.96 | 111 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 64 | 18.4% | 11.1% | 1.11 | 4.94 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |