Abraham Parra — OGILVIE

Abraham Parra P Fort Wayne TinCaps

+0.1 WAR

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.6 · 2032

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.3%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%10.1%

IP82

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.6peak

2032

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	10	5	26	111	14	8	1	8.6%	9.0%	1.1%	3.46	4.12	+0.2
2024	18	ROK	ACL Padres	13	7	36	185	40	25	3	14.7%	16.9%	2.6%	9.59	5.43	-0.2
2025	19	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	20	11	88	389	80	35	7	15.0%	11.3%	2.6%	5.13	4.72	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	2	2	8	38	7	5	1	—	—	—	3.52	—	—
ROS	20	MLB	SD	15	15	82	345	70	35	10	20.3%	10.2%	2.9%	4.66	4.66	+0.4
2026 Total	20	MLB	SD	—	—	89	383	77	40	11	20.1%	10.5%	2.9%	4.56	4.26	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	SD	16	16	86	362	76	34	10	21.0%	9.5%	2.9%	4.54	4.49	+0.7
2028	22	MLB	SD	20	20	112	473	104	42	13	22.0%	8.8%	2.8%	4.38	4.29	+1.3
2029	23	MLB	SD	25	25	136	575	131	48	16	22.7%	8.4%	2.8%	4.24	4.16	+1.8
2030	24	MLB	SD	28	28	156	657	153	54	18	23.2%	8.2%	2.8%	4.14	4.07	+2.2
2031	25	MLB	SD	31	31	170	716	169	57	20	23.6%	8.0%	2.7%	4.06	4.01	+2.5
2032	26	MLB	SD	32	32	177	746	177	60	20	23.8%	8.0%	2.7%	4.02	3.99	+2.6
2033	27	MLB	SD	32	32	175	740	176	59	20	23.8%	8.0%	2.8%	4.01	4.00	+2.6
2034	28	MLB	SD	31	31	173	729	173	59	20	23.8%	8.1%	2.8%	4.02	4.02	+2.5
2035	29	MLB	SD	31	31	169	713	168	58	20	23.6%	8.1%	2.8%	4.05	4.07	+2.4
2036	30	MLB	SD	30	30	164	691	162	57	20	23.4%	8.2%	2.9%	4.10	4.13	+2.2
2037	31	MLB	SD	29	29	158	667	155	56	20	23.2%	8.3%	3.0%	4.16	4.21	+2.0
2038	32	MLB	SD	28	28	152	641	147	54	20	22.9%	8.5%	3.0%	4.24	4.29	+1.7
2039	33	MLB	SD	26	26	145	612	138	53	19	22.6%	8.7%	3.1%	4.33	4.39	+1.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			45	25	157	723	102	90	17	14.1%	12.5%	2.4%	5.79	4.80	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—			57	32	200	921	130	115	22	14.1%	12.5%	2.4%	5.79	4.80	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abraham Parra (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	20.3%	10.2%	2.9%	—	4.29	22.0%	13.2%	334	-0.37	—	—	—
Micah Ottenbreit R 2027 · 4.31 FIP	21	SP-	4.31	17.9%	11.8%	2.2%	.305	3.04	14.7%	10.3%	24	-1.27	3.04	118	92
Braden Webb R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	89
Will Sanders R 2028 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	89
Brett Wichrowski R 2027 · 4.09 FIP	21	SP-	4.09	17.0%	11.2%	1.8%	.267	4.54	14.5%	3.5%	113	+0.45	4.06	202	89
Johnathan Harmon R 2028 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.8%	10.2%	2.5%	.293	3.81	16.1%	8.1%	69	-0.48	3.51	157	89
Victor Lizarraga R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.3%	11.4%	2.5%	.278	5.17	16.8%	2.6%	91	+0.98	3.82	406	88
Michael Forret R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP-	3.99	21.8%	11.8%	2.2%	.302	2.67	25.1%	16.6%	74	-1.32	2.67	174	88
Devereaux Harrison R 2028 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	17.6%	11.3%	3.5%	.252	4.82	17.2%	4.7%	230	-0.14	4.73	324	88
Sam Carlson R 2028 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.9%	11.2%	2.3%	.334	3.73	19.9%	9.1%	153	-0.56	3.20	313	87
Josh Bostick R 2028 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	87
Chris McElvain R 2028 · 4.78 FIP	22	SP-	4.78	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	4.29	16.7%	6.6%	122	-0.49	4.06	218	87
Trevor Clifton R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	20	SP-	4.24	16.5%	12.0%	1.8%	.276	3.85	17.3%	7.1%	345	-0.39	3.07	588	87
Josh Grosz R 2027 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP-	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	4.75	19.4%	7.6%	125	-0.08	4.75	243	87
Shelby Lackey R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	87
Aaron Davenport R 2028 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	87
Jordan Foley R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	19.6%	12.1%	1.6%	.294	4.02	22.8%	9.3%	162	+0.17	3.21	305	86
CJ Van Eyk R 2028 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	86
Jose Almonte R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.0%	9.1%	2.4%	.293	4.01	20.3%	8.0%	139	-0.10	4.01	279	86
Kolton Curtis R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.38	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.53	4.38	148	86
Nick Sinacola R 2028 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.06	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.37	3.55	357	86

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.2	$20M	+$19M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.5	$23M	+$22M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.6	$25M	+$24M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+2.6	$26M	+$22M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+2.5	$25M	+$19M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+2.4	$25M	+$17M
Totals		$21M		$144M	+$122M