Abraham Parra

P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2031

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#805ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKSD	13	7	36	9.59	4.05	21.6%	13.5%	—	K 14.7% · BB 16.9% · FIP 5.40
2025	19	MIX2 levels	20	11	88	5.13	3.51	20.6%	9.0%	—	K 15.0% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.73
2026	20	MIX3 levels	25	19	101	6.13	4.36	19.8%	14.0%	—	K 15.5% · BB 16.1% · FIP 4.89
2027PROJ	21	MLBSD	—	—	0	5.83	5.83	13.9%	16.3%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBSD	6	6	34	5.52	5.39	16.2%	14.2%	0.0
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBSD	9	9	51	5.23	5.10	17.6%	12.9%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$1M2034Arb-3$1M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.9, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 87%

CompsLuis Mateo (age 22) · Kyle Larsen (age 21) · Kevin Gowdy (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.83

FIP5.83

K%13.9%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%-2.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-3	$1M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	10	5	26	111	14	8	1	50%	2.6	8.6%	9.0%	-0.4%	1.2%	3.46	4.16	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	10	5	26	111	14	8	1	50%	2.6	12.6%	7.2%	5.4%	0.9%	3.46	3.45	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	13	7	36	185	40	25	3	54%	2.7	14.7%	16.9%	-2.2%	2.5%	9.59	5.40	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	13	7	36	185	40	25	3	54%	2.7	14.7%	16.9%	-2.2%	2.5%	9.59	5.40	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	13	7	36	185	40	25	3	54%	2.7	21.6%	13.5%	8.1%	1.6%	9.59	4.05	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	11	88	389	80	35	7	55%	4.4	15.0%	11.3%	3.7%	2.7%	5.13	4.73	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	11	88	389	80	35	7	55%	4.4	15.0%	11.3%	3.7%	2.7%	5.13	4.73	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	11	88	389	80	35	7	55%	4.4	20.6%	9.0%	11.6%	1.8%	5.13	3.51	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	19	101	465	92	65	9	76%	4.1	15.5%	16.1%	-0.6%	1.9%	6.13	4.89	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	19	101	465	92	65	9	76%	4.1	15.5%	16.1%	-0.6%	1.9%	6.13	4.89	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	19	101	465	92	65	9	76%	4.1	19.8%	14.0%	5.8%	1.9%	6.13	4.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.9%	16.3%	-2.4%	2.7%	5.83	5.83	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	70	295	48	42	8	100%	5.8	16.2%	14.2%	2.0%	2.6%	5.48	5.35	+0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	70	295	52	38	8	100%	5.8	17.6%	12.9%	4.8%	2.6%	5.19	5.06	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	70	295	54	36	8	100%	5.8	18.4%	12.0%	6.4%	2.6%	4.99	4.88	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	62	260	49	30	7	100%	5.6	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	2.6%	4.86	4.78	+0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	62	260	50	30	7	100%	6.2	19.1%	11.6%	7.5%	2.6%	4.80	4.76	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	60	253	48	29	7	100%	6.0	19.1%	11.6%	7.4%	2.6%	4.80	4.80	+0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	57	242	46	29	7	100%	5.7	18.9%	11.8%	7.2%	2.7%	4.85	4.88	+0.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	54	227	43	27	7	100%	6.0	18.7%	12.0%	6.7%	2.9%	4.95	5.01	+0.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	50	209	38	26	6	100%	6.2	18.4%	12.3%	6.1%	3.1%	5.09	5.19	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	6	6	34	144	23	20	4	100%	5.7	16.2%	14.2%	2.0%	2.7%	5.52	5.39	+0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	51	215	38	28	6	100%	5.7	17.6%	12.9%	4.8%	2.7%	5.23	5.10	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	58	245	45	30	7	100%	5.8	18.4%	12.0%	6.4%	2.7%	5.03	4.92	+0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	54	228	43	26	6	100%	6.0	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	2.7%	4.90	4.82	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	56	236	45	27	6	100%	6.2	19.1%	11.6%	7.5%	2.7%	4.84	4.80	+0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	56	236	45	27	6	100%	6.2	19.1%	11.6%	7.4%	2.7%	4.84	4.84	+0.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	54	228	43	27	6	100%	6.0	18.9%	11.8%	7.2%	2.8%	4.89	4.92	+0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	51	215	40	26	6	100%	6.4	18.7%	12.0%	6.7%	3.0%	4.99	5.05	+0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	47	198	36	24	6	100%	5.9	18.4%	12.3%	6.1%	3.2%	5.13	5.23	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	78	461	1948	360	236	54	100%	5.9	18.5%	12.1%	6.3%	2.8%	5.01	4.60	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	156	102	23	100%	5.9	18.5%	12.1%	6.3%	2.8%	5.01	4.60	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		68	42	251	1150	167	160	25	62%	3.7	14.5%	13.9%	0.6%	2.2%	6.00	4.85	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	34	200	918	133	128	20	62%	3.7	14.5%	13.9%	0.6%	2.2%	6.00	4.85	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 89 IPFIP 4.09 → 4.99 (+0.90)K% 20.3% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.30%	—	×0.770	15.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.86%	—	×1.150	15.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.17%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.09 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 11 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.10 (+0.49)K% 18.0% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.00%	—	×0.810	14.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.00%	—	×1.100	17.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 82 IPFIP 3.66 → 4.73 (+1.07)K% 20.3% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.27%	—	×0.740	15.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×1.180	11.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷0.936	×1.300	2.66%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 3.66 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Padres · 6 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.66 (+0.68)K% 25.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.680	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.018	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Padres · 36 IPFIP 3.88 → 5.40 (+1.52)K% 21.6% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.62%	—	×0.680	14.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.51%	—	×1.250	16.89%
HR / BF /BF	1.62%	÷0.892	×1.400	2.55%

Result: FIP 3.88 → 5.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Padres Gold · 26 IPFIP 3.44 → 4.16 (+0.71)K% 12.6% → 8.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.61%	—	×0.680	8.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.21%	—	×1.250	9.01%
HR / BF /BF	0.90%	÷1.083	×1.400	1.16%

Result: FIP 3.44 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abraham Parra (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.83	13.9%	16.3%	2.7%	—	5.10	17.4%	4.4%	209	-0.73	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	88
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	86
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.11	333	86
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	86
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	85
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	85
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	84
Jefferson Medina R 2015 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP-	5.12	13.1%	16.1%	2.0%	.279	3.89	14.1%	2.6%	187	-1.23	3.56	350	84
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	84
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	84
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	83
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.42	301	83
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	83
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	83
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	83
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	82
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	82
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.43	19.5%	8.9%	150	-0.98	3.60	209	82
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	81
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	62	17.8%	12.7%	1.04	5.10
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ed Farmer ('71-'83, -2 WAR*)	3.1	69	21.3%*	12.2%*	1.03*	4.71*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*