Abraham Parra — OGILVIE

Abraham Parra P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.7 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION100 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.67

FIP5.67

K%13.9%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%-0.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$4M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	10	5	26	111	14	8	1	50%	2.6	8.6%	9.0%	-0.4%	1.2%	3.46	4.16	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	10	5	26	111	14	8	1	50%	2.6	8.6%	9.0%	-0.4%	1.2%	3.46	4.16	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	10	5	26	111	14	8	1	50%	2.6	12.6%	7.2%	5.4%	0.9%	3.46	3.45	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	13	7	36	185	40	25	3	54%	2.7	14.7%	16.9%	-2.2%	2.5%	9.59	5.40	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	13	7	36	185	40	25	3	54%	2.7	14.7%	16.9%	-2.2%	2.5%	9.59	5.40	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	13	7	36	185	40	25	3	54%	2.7	21.6%	13.5%	8.1%	1.6%	9.59	4.05	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	11	88	389	80	35	7	55%	4.4	15.0%	11.3%	3.7%	2.7%	5.13	4.73	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	11	88	389	80	35	7	55%	4.4	15.0%	11.3%	3.7%	2.7%	5.13	4.73	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	11	88	389	80	35	7	55%	4.4	20.6%	9.0%	11.6%	1.8%	5.13	3.51	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	24	19	100	454	91	64	7	79%	4.2	15.5%	16.1%	-0.6%	1.9%	5.78	4.89	—
YTD	20	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	24	19	100	454	91	64	7	79%	4.2	15.5%	16.1%	-0.6%	1.9%	5.78	4.89	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A+ RAW	SD	21	16	89	404	82	56	7	76%	4.2	20.3%	13.9%	6.4%	1.7%	5.76	4.09	—
2026	20	AA RAW	SD	3	3	11	50	9	8	0	100%	3.6	18.0%	16.0%	2.0%	0.0%	5.91	3.61	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	SD	1	1	5	22	3	3	1	100%	5.2	13.9%	13.9%	-0.0%	2.9%	5.67	5.67	-0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	105	476	94	67	8	—	—	19.8%	14.1%	5.7%	1.6%	5.77	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	102	433	68	55	12	100%	6.0	15.7%	12.6%	3.1%	2.9%	5.41	5.33	-0.5
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	108	454	79	53	13	100%	6.0	17.4%	11.6%	5.8%	2.8%	5.15	5.03	-0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	112	471	87	52	13	100%	5.9	18.4%	10.9%	7.5%	2.8%	4.95	4.84	+0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	114	483	92	51	13	100%	6.0	19.1%	10.6%	8.4%	2.8%	4.82	4.73	+0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	116	489	95	51	13	100%	5.8	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	2.7%	4.73	4.68	+0.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	116	489	96	51	13	100%	6.1	19.6%	10.5%	9.2%	2.7%	4.69	4.66	+0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	114	482	95	51	13	100%	6.0	19.6%	10.5%	9.1%	2.8%	4.69	4.69	+0.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	111	467	91	50	14	100%	6.2	19.5%	10.7%	8.8%	2.9%	4.74	4.78	+0.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	106	446	86	49	14	100%	5.9	19.3%	10.9%	8.3%	3.0%	4.84	4.91	-0.0
2036	30	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	99	420	79	47	14	100%	5.8	18.9%	11.2%	7.7%	3.2%	4.99	5.09	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	51	215	34	27	6	100%	5.7	15.7%	12.6%	3.1%	2.9%	5.45	5.37	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	79	334	58	39	10	100%	6.1	17.4%	11.6%	5.8%	2.9%	5.19	5.07	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	94	397	73	43	11	100%	5.9	18.4%	10.9%	7.5%	2.9%	4.99	4.88	+0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	SD	17	17	102	431	82	46	12	100%	6.0	19.1%	10.6%	8.4%	2.8%	4.86	4.77	+0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	106	448	87	47	13	100%	5.9	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	2.8%	4.77	4.72	+0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	108	456	90	48	13	100%	6.0	19.6%	10.5%	9.2%	2.8%	4.73	4.70	+0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	108	456	89	48	13	100%	6.0	19.6%	10.5%	9.1%	2.9%	4.73	4.73	+0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	105	443	86	47	13	100%	5.8	19.5%	10.7%	8.8%	3.0%	4.78	4.82	+0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	SD	17	17	100	422	81	46	13	100%	5.9	19.3%	10.9%	8.3%	3.1%	4.88	4.95	-0.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	94	397	75	44	13	100%	5.9	18.9%	11.2%	7.7%	3.3%	5.03	5.13	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		159	159	948	4003	757	436	118	100%	6.0	18.9%	10.9%	8.0%	2.9%	4.90	4.50	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	160	92	25	100%	6.0	18.9%	10.9%	8.0%	2.9%	4.90	4.50	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		67	42	249	1139	166	158	25	63%	3.7	14.5%	13.9%	0.6%	2.2%	5.86	4.85	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	34	200	915	133	127	20	63%	3.7	14.5%	13.9%	0.6%	2.2%	5.86	4.85	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abraham Parra (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.67	13.9%	13.9%	2.9%	—	5.06	17.2%	5.5%	322	-0.61	—	—	—
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	89
Erik Manoah Jr. R 2015 · 5.67 FIP	19	SP-	5.67	12.9%	13.1%	3.7%	.269	5.64	14.5%	-0.3%	220	-0.03	3.47	322	88
Josh Swales R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	11.8%	14.6%	2.9%	.356	5.64	15.1%	1.4%	66	+0.13	5.51	129	87
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	87
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	86
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	86
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	86
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	86
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	85
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	85
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	85
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	85
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	84
Moises Ruiz R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	8.7%	12.8%	3.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	104	84
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	84
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	84
Maiker Manuel R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	15.0%	13.2%	1.9%	.278	4.62	15.3%	11.5%	51	+0.06	4.56	148	84
Yondrei Rojas R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	20	SP-	4.59	14.0%	11.2%	2.3%	.312	4.10	20.9%	10.2%	123	-0.49	2.60	240	83
Luis Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	19	SP-	4.96	12.8%	12.5%	2.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	111	83
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	105	18.5%	11.1%	1.11	4.93
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25