Xavier Lopez
P
FCL Rays
Age 21
RHP
6'2" / 160 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 20 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
K%22.6%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP20
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 7 | 7 | 20 | 91 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 100% | 2.9 | 14.9% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 5.75 | 3.93 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 7 | 7 | 20 | 91 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 100% | 2.9 | 22.0% | 7.7% | 14.3% | 1.1% | 5.75 | 2.80 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 10 | 10 | 39 | 152 | 37 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 3.9 | 16.6% | 10.7% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 2.06 | 4.74 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 10 | 10 | 39 | 152 | 37 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 3.9 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 15.8% | 2.0% | 2.06 | 3.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | 11 | 8 | 50 | 220 | 35 | 26 | 3 | 73% | 4.5 | 10.8% | 14.8% | -4.0% | 1.9% | 3.99 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TB | 3 | 3 | 20 | 83 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 6.5 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.6% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | TB | — | — | 69 | 303 | 54 | 34 | 5 | — | — | 17.7% | 11.1% | 6.6% | 1.8% | 4.10 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TB | 4 | 4 | 21 | 87 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TB | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.21 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 3.83 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 79 | 20 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 28 | 25 | 109 | 463 | 63 | 58 | 10 | 89% | 3.9 | 13.5% | 12.4% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.62 | 4.75 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 46 | 200 | 847 | 114 | 105 | 19 | 89% | 3.9 | 13.5% | 12.4% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.62 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Xavier Lopez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.21 | 23.5% | 14.8% | 21 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 85 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.67 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .341 | 3.99 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.32 | 3.44 | 259 | 85 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 84 |
| JR Ritchie R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.94 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .260 | 4.47 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 234 | +0.53 | 1.00 | 280 | 83 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 82 |
| Chad Patrick R 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 82 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 82 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 82 |
| José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 81 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 81 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 81 |
| Logan Gragg R 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.02 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .343 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 412 | 80 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 80 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 80 |
| Mike Vasil R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 79 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2029 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 79 |
| Michael Knorr R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 79 |
| Dylan Wilson R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.60 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 139 | 79 |
| Cody Stashak R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.07 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 3.55 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 261 | -0.52 | 1.99 | 467 | 79 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2029 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 79 |