Xavier Lopez — OGILVIE

Xavier Lopez P FCL Rays

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 160 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%20.2%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$21M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	7	7	20	91	20	7	1	100%	2.9	14.9%	9.6%	5.3%	1.6%	5.75	3.92	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	7	7	20	91	20	7	1	100%	2.9	14.9%	9.6%	5.3%	1.6%	5.75	3.92	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	7	7	20	91	20	7	1	100%	2.9	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	1.1%	5.75	2.80	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	10	10	39	152	37	13	3	100%	3.9	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	2.9%	2.06	4.65	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	10	10	39	152	37	13	3	100%	3.9	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	2.9%	2.06	4.65	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	10	10	39	152	37	13	3	100%	3.9	24.3%	8.6%	15.8%	2.0%	2.06	3.20	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	15	9	60	274	41	35	3	60%	4.0	10.4%	14.6%	-4.3%	1.6%	5.13	4.98	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	15	9	60	274	41	35	3	60%	4.0	10.4%	14.6%	-4.3%	1.6%	5.13	4.98	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	TB	13	9	56	256	39	30	3	69%	4.3	15.2%	11.7%	3.5%	1.2%	5.27	3.94	—
2026	21	A RAW	TB	2	0	3	18	2	5	0	0%	1.6	11.1%	27.8%	-16.7%	0.0%	2.70	5.68	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	61	259	56	24	8	100%	5.1	21.5%	9.4%	12.1%	2.9%	4.54	4.46	+0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	64	269	60	24	8	100%	5.3	22.4%	8.9%	13.5%	2.9%	4.39	4.30	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	65	275	63	24	8	100%	5.4	23.0%	8.6%	14.3%	2.9%	4.28	4.20	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	66	279	65	24	8	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.5%	14.9%	2.8%	4.20	4.15	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	66	279	66	24	8	100%	6.0	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	2.8%	4.15	4.12	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	65	274	65	23	8	100%	5.9	23.6%	8.5%	15.0%	2.9%	4.16	4.16	+0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	63	266	62	23	8	100%	6.3	23.4%	8.7%	14.8%	3.0%	4.21	4.25	+0.5
2027	22	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	30	127	27	12	4	100%	5.0	21.5%	9.4%	12.1%	3.0%	4.59	4.51	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	46	194	43	17	6	100%	5.1	22.4%	8.9%	13.5%	3.0%	4.44	4.35	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	54	228	52	20	7	100%	5.4	23.0%	8.6%	14.3%	2.9%	4.33	4.25	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	58	245	57	21	7	100%	5.8	23.4%	8.5%	14.9%	2.9%	4.25	4.20	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	60	253	60	21	7	100%	6.0	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	2.9%	4.20	4.17	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	60	253	60	22	8	100%	6.0	23.6%	8.5%	15.0%	3.0%	4.21	4.21	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	59	249	58	22	8	100%	5.9	23.4%	8.7%	14.8%	3.1%	4.26	4.30	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	64	368	1555	359	135	46	100%	5.8	23.1%	8.7%	14.4%	3.0%	4.30	3.88	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	195	73	25	100%	5.7	23.1%	8.7%	14.4%	3.0%	4.30	3.88	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		32	26	119	517	67	65	10	81%	3.7	13.0%	12.6%	0.4%	2.0%	4.22	4.70	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	44	200	866	113	109	17	81%	3.7	13.0%	12.6%	0.4%	2.0%	4.22	4.70	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Xavier Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	20.2%	10.2%	3.0%	—	4.32	22.3%	13.3%	190	-0.38	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	91
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	87
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	85
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	84
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	83
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	82
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	82
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	82
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	81
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	81
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	81
Andrew Cabezas R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	16.1%	9.4%	3.0%	.210	4.70	16.7%	6.9%	185	+0.11	4.16	300	81
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	80
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	80
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	80
Peyton Remy R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP-	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.75	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.18	3.57	286	80
Daniel Martinez R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP-	4.17	15.2%	10.4%	1.9%	.234	7.18	14.3%	1.0%	93	+3.01	3.41	242	79
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	79
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	59	22.9%	8.8%	1.12	4.29
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93