Merlin Bido — OGILVIE

Merlin Bido P FCL Red Sox

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 174 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.80

FIP5.80

K%19.3%

BB%18.9%

K-BB%0.4%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	12	6	41	168	33	18	1	50%	3.4	13.4%	13.4%	-0.0%	0.9%	4.17	4.15	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	12	6	41	168	33	18	1	50%	3.4	13.4%	13.4%	-0.0%	0.9%	4.17	4.15	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	12	6	41	168	33	18	1	50%	3.4	19.6%	10.7%	8.9%	0.6%	4.17	3.12	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	11	5	32	137	31	28	0	45%	2.9	15.4%	25.5%	-10.2%	0.0%	4.83	5.04	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	11	5	32	137	31	28	0	45%	2.9	15.4%	25.5%	-10.2%	0.0%	4.83	5.04	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	11	5	32	137	31	28	0	45%	2.9	22.6%	20.4%	2.2%	0.0%	4.83	3.79	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	13	1	25	126	28	39	2	8%	1.9	15.1%	38.7%	-23.6%	2.2%	8.28	7.94	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	13	1	25	126	28	39	2	8%	1.9	15.1%	38.7%	-23.6%	2.2%	8.28	7.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	BOS	13	1	25	126	28	39	2	8%	1.9	22.2%	31.0%	-8.7%	1.6%	8.28	6.02	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BOS	37	0	39	163	33	26	5	0%	1.0	20.3%	16.0%	4.3%	2.8%	5.46	5.33	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	BOS	18	0	19	80	16	13	2	0%	1.1	20.3%	16.0%	4.3%	2.8%	5.46	5.33	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	80	16	13	2	0%	1.1	20.3%	16.0%	4.3%	2.8%	5.46	4.95	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	137	21	0%	1.1	20.3%	16.0%	4.3%	2.8%	5.46	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		36	12	98	431	63	106	4	33%	2.7	14.5%	24.7%	-10.1%	1.0%	5.44	5.54	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	25	200	883	128	218	9	33%	2.7	14.5%	24.7%	-10.1%	1.0%	5.44	5.54	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Merlin Bido (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.80	19.3%	18.9%	2.8%	—	5.33	20.3%	4.3%	39	-0.47	—	—	—
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	88
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	87
Edinzo Marquez R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	17	SW	4.97	20.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.250	3.90	13.2%	0.4%	119	-1.07	3.26	188	85
Denny Larrondo R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	.293	5.26	18.1%	-0.4%	155	+0.49	4.48	293	85
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	84
Sandy Ozuna R 2023 · 5.42 FIP	17	SW	5.42	15.1%	17.4%	2.5%	.303	4.77	18.3%	7.9%	71	-0.65	3.03	103	84
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	83
Dominic Hambley R 2023 · 5.81 FIP	20	SW	5.81	16.4%	20.4%	2.8%	.318	4.66	17.9%	-4.3%	73	-1.15	4.44	131	83
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	83
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	83
Yimi Presinal R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	18	SW	4.75	20.2%	15.0%	2.7%	.326	4.71	20.8%	4.6%	92	-0.04	3.62	157	82
Ronny Lopez R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	20	SW	5.33	15.1%	20.6%	1.6%	.232	5.01	13.7%	-5.7%	85	-0.32	4.23	121	81
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	81
Yeiber Cartaya R 2023 · 5.38 FIP	20	SW	5.38	16.4%	21.2%	1.8%	.307	4.38	20.4%	3.8%	235	-1.00	4.12	283	81
Juan Martinez R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	20	SW	5.12	17.4%	20.8%	1.6%	.314	5.54	15.4%	-0.3%	31	+0.42	4.03	122	81
Darlin Pinales R 2023 · 6.68 FIP	20	SW	6.68	17.0%	27.6%	2.8%	.350	4.44	21.7%	1.1%	117	-2.24	3.61	214	81
Jose Pena Jr. R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	20	SU	6.67	13.6%	25.8%	2.6%	.292	3.81	22.3%	9.1%	116	-2.86	3.48	176	80
Jaydenn Estanista R 2022 · 5.61 FIP	20	SW	5.61	20.2%	16.9%	3.8%	.172	5.14	20.6%	2.4%	123	-0.47	4.59	230	80
Yehizon Sanchez R 2021 · 5.88 FIP	20	SW	5.88	18.1%	16.7%	4.0%	.417	6.18	13.4%	1.7%	217	+0.30	3.40	359	80
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	20.0%	17.0%	1.09	5.58
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48