Juan Martinez
P
Quad Cities River Bandits
Age 25
RHP
5'11" / 195 lbs
A+
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136126vR 117
ERA5.18
FIP5.18
K%16.5%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%4.3%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Royals 2 | 13 | 0 | 20 | 109 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 8.1% | 14.9% | -6.8% | 2.6% | 10.35 | 5.71 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Royals 2 | 13 | 0 | 20 | 109 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 11.9% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 10.35 | 5.05 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | DSL Royals Blue | 11 | 2 | 20 | 90 | 23 | 15 | 1 | 18% | 1.8 | 17.4% | 20.8% | -3.5% | 1.5% | 1.83 | 5.12 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | DSL Royals Blue | 11 | 2 | 20 | 90 | 23 | 15 | 1 | 18% | 1.8 | 25.6% | 16.7% | 8.9% | 1.1% | 1.83 | 3.71 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Royals | 8 | 0 | 8 | 47 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.2% | 17.0% | 19.1% | 2.1% | 8.64 | 3.37 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Royals | 8 | 0 | 8 | 47 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.2% | 17.0% | 19.1% | 2.1% | 8.64 | 3.46 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 1 | 31 | 139 | 30 | 18 | 3 | 5% | 1.5 | 15.4% | 15.7% | -0.3% | 3.4% | 5.28 | 5.64 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 1 | 31 | 139 | 30 | 18 | 3 | 5% | 1.5 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 5.28 | 4.18 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 36 | 1 | 52 | 210 | 47 | 20 | 3 | 3% | 1.4 | 17.2% | 11.0% | 6.3% | 1.8% | 2.08 | 4.05 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 36 | 1 | 52 | 210 | 47 | 20 | 3 | 3% | 1.4 | 22.4% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 1.4% | 2.08 | 3.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | KC | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 49 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.5% | 12.2% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 5.18 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | KC | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 52 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 11.9% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 5.07 | 5.06 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | KC | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 52 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 5.03 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | KC | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 22 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 11.9% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 5.07 | 5.06 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | KC | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 33 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 5.03 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 70 | 0 | 74 | 310 | 55 | 37 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 4.67 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 150 | 101 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 88 | 4 | 131 | 595 | 99 | 88 | 14 | 5% | 1.5 | 16.6% | 14.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.48 | 4.83 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 135 | 6 | 200 | 911 | 152 | 134 | 21 | 5% | 1.5 | 16.6% | 14.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.48 | 4.83 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Martinez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.18 | 16.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | — | 5.05 | 17.7% | 5.9% | 139 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 91 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.04 | 16.0% | 10.9% | 1.7% | .293 | 3.40 | 12.8% | 1.8% | 17 | -0.64 | 3.40 | 134 | 89 |
| Confesor Lara R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 111 | 89 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.49 | 15.1% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 218 | 88 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .273 | 2.80 | 22.8% | 15.6% | 188 | -1.91 | 2.42 | 302 | 88 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.21 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 2.0% | .330 | 4.58 | 14.2% | 5.4% | 162 | +0.37 | 3.79 | 291 | 87 |
| David Goforth R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.47 | 3.92 | 256 | 87 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2028 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 87 |
| El'Hajj Muhammad R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .285 | 5.19 | 7.1% | -2.5% | 11 | +0.48 | 4.65 | 113 | 86 |
| Merrick Baldo R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.55 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.57 | 14.7% | 8.1% | 38 | -0.98 | 2.69 | 154 | 86 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 13.5% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 188 | 86 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 86 |
| Ryan Ledbetter R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.63 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 124 | 86 |
| Tyler Burch R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.70 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 119 | 86 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 86 |
| Justin Camp R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 13.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 140 | 86 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 86 |
| Julian Arballo R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 85 |
| Armando Rivero R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 85 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.23 | 17.8% | 10.7% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.45 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 141 | +0.22 | 3.97 | 248 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 17.3% | 12.0% | 1.10 | 5.09 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |