Juan Martinez — OGILVIE

Juan Martinez P Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 195 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%16.5%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%3.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 2	13	0	20	109	13	13	2	0%	1.5	8.1%	14.9%	-6.8%	2.6%	10.35	5.71	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 2	13	0	20	109	13	13	2	0%	1.5	11.9%	11.9%	0.0%	1.8%	10.35	5.05	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	11	2	20	90	23	15	1	18%	1.8	17.4%	20.8%	-3.5%	1.6%	1.83	5.12	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	11	2	20	90	23	15	1	18%	1.8	25.6%	16.7%	8.9%	1.1%	1.83	3.71	—
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	8	0	8	47	17	8	1	0%	1.0	36.2%	17.0%	19.1%	2.1%	8.64	3.37	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	8	0	8	47	17	8	1	0%	1.0	36.2%	17.0%	19.1%	2.1%	8.64	3.46	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	1	31	139	30	18	3	5%	1.5	15.4%	15.7%	-0.3%	3.2%	5.28	5.54	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	1	31	139	30	18	3	5%	1.5	15.4%	15.7%	-0.3%	3.2%	5.28	5.54	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	1	31	139	30	18	3	5%	1.5	21.6%	12.9%	8.6%	2.2%	5.28	4.18	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	36	1	52	210	47	20	3	3%	1.4	17.2%	11.0%	6.3%	1.8%	2.08	4.03	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	36	1	52	210	47	20	3	3%	1.4	17.2%	11.0%	6.3%	1.8%	2.08	4.03	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	36	1	52	210	47	20	3	3%	1.4	22.4%	9.5%	12.9%	1.4%	2.08	3.20	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	KC	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	16.5%	12.9%	3.6%	2.8%	5.26	5.26	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	KC	67	0	70	296	52	37	8	0%	1.0	17.5%	12.5%	5.0%	2.8%	5.15	5.13	-0.5
2028	27	MLB MLE	KC	66	0	69	291	52	36	8	0%	1.0	17.9%	12.3%	5.6%	2.9%	5.10	5.11	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	KC	64	0	67	282	51	35	8	0%	1.0	18.1%	12.3%	5.8%	3.0%	5.12	5.15	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	KC	61	0	64	270	49	34	8	0%	1.0	18.0%	12.5%	5.5%	3.1%	5.20	5.26	-0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	KC	29	0	30	127	22	16	4	0%	1.0	17.5%	12.5%	5.0%	2.8%	5.15	5.13	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	KC	41	0	43	182	33	22	5	0%	1.0	17.9%	12.3%	5.6%	2.9%	5.10	5.11	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	KC	48	0	50	211	38	26	6	0%	1.0	18.1%	12.3%	5.8%	3.0%	5.12	5.15	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	KC	50	0	52	220	39	27	7	0%	1.0	18.0%	12.5%	5.5%	3.1%	5.20	5.26	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	0	176	742	133	92	22	0%	1.1	17.9%	12.4%	5.5%	3.0%	5.14	4.79	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	105	25	0%	1.1	17.9%	12.4%	5.5%	3.0%	5.14	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		88	4	131	595	99	88	13	5%	1.5	16.6%	14.8%	1.9%	2.3%	4.48	4.80	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		135	6	200	911	152	134	21	5%	1.5	16.6%	14.8%	1.9%	2.3%	4.48	4.80	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	16.5%	12.9%	2.8%	—	5.13	17.8%	5.5%	206	-0.13	—	—	—
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	91
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	87
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	87
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	87
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	15.1%	10.4%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	218	87
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	87
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	86
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	86
Scott Oberg R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	17.0%	11.2%	3.4%	.273	2.92	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.04	2.54	302	86
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	85
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	85
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	85
El'Hajj Muhammad R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SU	4.58	13.6%	10.0%	2.5%	.285	5.01	7.1%	-2.5%	11	+0.43	4.58	113	85
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	84
Justin Camp R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	140	84
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	17.6%	12.5%	1.13	5.17
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58