Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Athletics | 7 | 4 | 21 | 83 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 57% | 3.0 | 12.3% | 10.5% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.43 | 3.40 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Athletics | 7 | 4 | 21 | 83 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 57% | 3.0 | 18.1% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 0.0% | 0.43 | 2.67 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 3 | 26 | 122 | 30 | 18 | 3 | 33% | 2.9 | 18.1% | 16.7% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 7.62 | 5.88 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 3 | 26 | 122 | 30 | 18 | 3 | 33% | 2.9 | 24.6% | 14.8% | 9.8% | 2.5% | 7.62 | 4.37 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | 22 | 16 | 92 | 418 | 77 | 37 | 22 | 73% | 4.2 | 13.6% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 6.8% | 5.75 | 7.01 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | 22 | 16 | 92 | 418 | 77 | 37 | 22 | 73% | 4.2 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 5.75 | 5.73 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 10 | 74 | 375 | 67 | 39 | 14 | 38% | 2.8 | 12.9% | 12.6% | 0.3% | 5.0% | 9.61 | 6.34 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 10 | 74 | 375 | 67 | 39 | 14 | 38% | 2.8 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 9.61 | 5.33 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 37 | 0 | 51 | 245 | 44 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 13.8% | 12.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 6.18 | 4.68 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 37 | 0 | 51 | 245 | 44 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.0% | 11.0% | 6.9% | 1.2% | 6.18 | 3.73 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 39 | 0 | 41 | 176 | 37 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 14.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.14 | 4.94 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 39 | 0 | 41 | 176 | 37 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 12.5% | 8.5% | 1.7% | 4.14 | 3.85 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 24 | 0 | 33 | 163 | 42 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | 6.21 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 37 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.5% | 14.7% | -0.2% | 2.9% | 5.73 | 5.73 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.5% | 14.7% | -0.2% | 2.9% | 5.73 | 5.73 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 93 | 414 | 79 | 61 | 9 | — | — | 19.0% | 14.7% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 5.90 | 5.14 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 14.5% | 14.7% | -0.2% | 2.9% | 5.73 | 5.35 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 40 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 14.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.55 | 5.53 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 41 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.6% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.47 | 5.47 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 18 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 14.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.55 | 5.53 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 26 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.6% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.47 | 5.47 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 0 | 63 | 265 | 43 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 14.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 5.50 | 5.12 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 137 | 118 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 14.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 5.50 | 5.12 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 164 | 33 | 339 | 1582 | 234 | 199 | 64 | 20% | 2.1 | 14.8% | 12.6% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 6.32 | 5.68 | -1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 97 | 19 | 200 | 933 | 138 | 117 | 38 | 20% | 2.1 | 14.8% | 12.6% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 6.32 | 5.68 | -0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yehizon Sanchez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.73 | 14.5% | 14.7% | 2.9% | — | 5.50 | 16.3% | 2.4% | 118 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Clate Schmidt R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.61 | 13.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 160 | 85 |
| Julian Arballo R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 85 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 85 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .324 | 7.06 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.98 | 4.90 | 103 | 85 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 84 |
| Conner O'Neil R 2025 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.58 | 12.8% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .340 | 7.24 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 26 | +1.66 | 2.90 | 115 | 84 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 84 |
| Kender Villegas R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 13.3% | 13.3% | 1.6% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 131 | 83 |
| Tyler Burch R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.70 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 119 | 83 |
| Justin Camp R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 13.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 140 | 82 |
| Rob Huber R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.67 | 15.7% | 14.7% | 1.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 117 | 82 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 103 | 82 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | .320 | 5.49 | 17.8% | 0.5% | 40 | +0.14 | 5.17 | 116 | 82 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.64 | 15.3% | 15.3% | 1.6% | .279 | 4.38 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 167 | -0.26 | 4.02 | 328 | 82 |
| Reece Karalus R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 81 |
| Zach Nuding R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.09 | 12.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .236 | 4.99 | 12.6% | 3.3% | 106 | -0.10 | 4.99 | 146 | 81 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 81 |
| Jarod Wright R 2026 · 5.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.87 | 12.7% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .282 | 4.28 | 13.2% | 3.8% | 53 | -1.59 | 4.28 | 170 | 81 |
| Yordy Cabrera R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.43 | 15.8% | 17.2% | 2.7% | .321 | 4.31 | 13.7% | 2.7% | 140 | -1.12 | 3.48 | 159 | 81 |
| Dillon McNamara R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.37 | 13.3% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .229 | 2.98 | 21.2% | 12.3% | 69 | -2.39 | 1.73 | 244 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 15.7% | 14.2% | 1.14 | 5.58 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |