Robert Arias

CF Hill City Howlers

Age 20 L/L 6'1" / 168 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

APROSPECTFG #220MiLBFA 2036

Scout OFP45ETA2029FG ETA2030MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKCLE	198	.287/.397/.402	2	29	72	—	.234/.309/.314
2026	19	ACLE	190	.291/.401/.462	5	21	109	—	.265/.348/.404
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBCLE	300	.236/.311/.358	6	8	90	0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBCLE	91	.239/.315/.366	2	3	94	0.2
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBCLE	181	.241/.318/.373	4	5	96	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$4M2034Arb-2$7M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

K%91

wRC+86

Whiff%86

wOBA84

Z-Con%83

Speed77

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 20, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 72%

CompsAkil Baddoo (age 20) · Evan Carter (age 20) · Forrest Wall (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 177 proj PA

wRC+†90

AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .309 / .354

PA177

HR3

SB5

K%22

BB%9

ISO122

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 57 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT57

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED62

scouting grade only

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-2	$7M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$9M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$13M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	180	150	37	7	4	0	25	15	4	29	4	247	369	347	715	100	272	8	14	330	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	ACL Guardians	—	198	164	47	11	1	2	29	22	1	29	4	287	397	402	799	116	312	11	15	357	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Hill City Howlers	—	190	158	46	10	1	5	29	27	0	21	7	291	401	462	863	171	320	14	15	380	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	180	157	24	4	2	0	18	19	4	29	4	153	257	204	461	51	175	11	10	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	198	175	41	9	1	1	18	30	1	29	4	234	309	314	624	80	257	15	9	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	—	190	166	44	9	1	4	21	37	0	21	7	265	348	404	751	139	309	19	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	180	157	24	4	2	0	18	19	4	29	4	153	257	204	461	51	173	11	10	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	180	150	37	7	4	0	25	15	4	29	4	247	369	347	715	100	272	8	14	330	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	198	175	41	9	1	1	18	30	1	29	4	234	309	314	624	80	270	15	9	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	—	198	164	47	11	1	2	29	22	1	29	4	287	397	402	799	116	312	11	15	357	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	—	190	166	44	9	1	4	21	37	0	21	7	265	348	404	751	139	315	19	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A RAW	Hill City Howlers	—	190	158	46	10	1	5	29	27	0	21	7	291	401	462	863	171	320	14	15	380	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	180	156	24	4	2	0	18	19	4	29	4	154	257	205	462	51	175	11	10	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	198	177	41	9	1	1	18	30	1	29	4	232	309	311	620	79	257	15	9	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	—	190	167	44	9	1	4	21	37	0	21	7	263	348	401	749	138	309	19	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	180	156	24	4	2	0	18	19	4	29	4	154	257	205	462	51	175	11	10	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	—	198	177	41	9	1	1	18	30	1	29	4	232	309	311	620	79	257	15	9	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	—	190	167	44	9	1	4	21	37	0	21	7	263	348	401	749	138	309	19	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	CLE	0%	300	268	64	12	2	6	27	66	2	8	2	236	311	358	669	122	290	22	9	301	90	-4	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	CLE	34%	264	236	56	11	2	5	24	57	2	7	2	239	315	367	682	128	291	22	9	307	94	-2	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	CLE	48%	374	334	81	16	2	8	34	80	3	10	3	241	318	375	692	133	291	21	9	311	96	-2	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.8
2030	23	MLB MLE	CLE	54%	446	398	97	19	3	10	41	95	4	12	3	243	320	380	700	137	292	21	9	313	98	-1	+1	-0	+2	+10	1.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	CLE	55%	494	442	108	21	3	12	45	105	4	13	3	244	321	384	705	140	293	21	9	316	100	-0	+1	+1	+2	+11	1.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	CLE	56%	520	463	114	22	3	13	48	110	4	14	3	245	321	387	708	142	293	21	9	316	100	+0	+2	+1	+2	+11	1.6
2033	26	MLB MLE	CLE	56%	534	476	116	22	3	13	49	113	4	14	4	245	321	386	707	141	293	21	9	316	100	+0	+1	+1	+2	+12	1.6
2034	27	MLB MLE	CLE	55%	539	480	117	22	3	13	50	115	4	14	4	243	320	383	704	140	292	21	9	315	99	-1	+1	+1	+2	+12	1.5
2035	28	MLB MLE	CLE	55%	537	479	115	22	3	12	49	116	4	12	3	242	318	379	697	137	291	22	9	312	97	-2	+1	+0	+2	+12	1.3
2036	29	MLB MLE	CLE	53%	529	472	114	22	3	12	48	116	4	11	3	239	315	372	688	133	290	22	9	308	95	-3	+1	-1	+2	+11	1.1
2037	30	MLB MLE	CLE	53%	520	464	110	21	3	11	47	116	4	10	3	236	312	364	676	128	288	22	9	304	92	-5	+1	-1	+2	+11	0.8
2038	31	MLB MLE	CLE	52%	506	452	105	20	2	10	46	114	3	9	4	232	307	354	661	122	285	23	9	298	88	-7	+0	-2	+2	+11	0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	CLE	34%	91	82	19	4	0	2	8	20	1	3	1	239	315	366	681	127	291	22	9	306	94	-1	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	CLE	48%	181	161	39	8	1	4	17	39	1	5	1	241	318	373	691	132	291	22	9	310	96	-1	+1	-0	+1	+4	0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	CLE	54%	242	216	52	10	1	6	22	51	2	7	2	243	320	379	698	136	292	21	9	313	98	-1	+1	-0	+1	+5	0.6
2031	24	MLB CTX	CLE	55%	274	245	59	12	1	6	25	58	2	7	2	245	321	383	704	138	293	21	9	315	100	-0	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.8
2032	25	MLB CTX	CLE	56%	291	260	63	12	1	7	27	62	2	8	2	245	321	385	707	140	293	21	9	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.9
2033	26	MLB CTX	CLE	56%	300	266	66	13	2	7	28	64	3	8	2	245	321	385	706	140	293	21	9	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.9
2034	27	MLB CTX	CLE	55%	298	266	65	13	1	7	28	64	2	8	2	244	320	382	702	138	292	21	9	314	99	-0	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.9
2035	28	MLB CTX	CLE	55%	294	263	63	12	1	7	27	64	2	7	2	242	318	377	696	136	291	22	9	312	97	-1	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.7
2036	29	MLB CTX	CLE	53%	283	253	60	12	1	6	26	62	2	6	2	239	315	371	687	132	290	22	9	308	95	-2	+0	-0	+1	+6	0.6
2037	30	MLB CTX	CLE	53%	274	245	58	11	1	6	25	61	2	5	2	236	312	363	675	127	288	22	9	304	92	-3	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.4
2038	31	MLB CTX	CLE	52%	264	236	55	11	1	5	24	60	2	4	2	232	307	353	661	121	286	23	9	298	88	-4	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2792	2493	599	118	11	63	257	605	21	68	20	240	316	372	689	132	292	22	9	311	94	-11	+6	-1	+10	+60	6.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	140	27	3	15	60	141	5	16	5	241	318	376	694	134	293	22	9	311	94	-3	+1	-0	+2	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	6008	5352	1279	247	35	127	554	1262	46	210	51	239	316	369	685	130	288	21	9	307	94	-25	+12	-4	+19	+118	12.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	139	27	4	14	60	137	5	23	6	240	317	373	690	133	289	21	9	307	94	-3	+1	-0	+2	+14	1.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gary Matthews'99-'10 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,617 PA	7.0	4,617	108	95	247*	323*	395*	-11	-3	10.6	11.1
/162	664	16	14	-1.6	-0.4	1.5	pk7: 12
#2Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	4.8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
/162	664	12	20	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#3Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.5	2,969	67	72	242	314	377	-16	+6	5.7	5.1
/162	664	15	16	-3.6	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 5
#4Luis Matos'00-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,773 PA	2.7	1,773	30	72	245*	304*	365*	+1	+10	3.2	3.2
/162	664	11	27	+0.3	+3.9	1.2	pk7: 3
#5Jacob Brumfield'92-'99 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,747 PA	2.6	1,747	32	74	244*	305*	386*	-3	+10	3.1	3.1
/162	664	12	28	-1.2	+3.8	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Ed Stroud'66-'71 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,500 PA	2.3	1,500	14	72	245*	312*	375*	-6	-0	2.5	2.5
/162	664	6	32	-2.7	-0.2	1.1	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Robert Arias (OGILVIE)	20	25→57	30→42	60→62	55	234/309/354	121	290	3	5	22%	9%	90	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Akil Baddoo 2019 · A	20	43→53	43→50	56→55	47	207/283/329	122	293	8	13	30%	9%	74	-0.6	215/284/346	131	317	11	16	33%	9%	78	-0.3	238/319/386	148	309	15	24	26%	11%	100	+0.9
●Evan Carter 2023 · AA	20	48→55	46→50	55	52	233/315/374	141	290	12	21	23%	10%	96	+1.0	239/326/389	150	309	14	21	25%	10%	103	+1.6	237/330/391	154	306	15	24	25%	10%	104	+0.9
✕Forrest Wall 2016 · A	20	48→55	42→45	58→70	46	229/285/342	114	291	8	18	24%	7%	77	-0.3	223/277/319	96	299	8	18	26%	6%	69	-0.9	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Jarred Kelenic 2019 · A	20	45→54	43→60	57→50	43	219/279/335	116	297	10	13	29%	7%	74	-0.6	230/290/411	181	294	21	13	28%	7%	96	+1.0	230/297/414	184	294	20	15	28%	8%	99	+1.1
●Daylen Lile 2024 · A	21	44→54	44→55	55	43	213/273/340	127	293	10	15	30%	7%	72	-0.7	244/298/387	143	300	11	16	22%	6%	92	+0.7	254/307/414	160	300	13	17	19%	6%	101	+1.4
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	35→44	42→50	53→55	51	176/278/284	108	252	10	16	32%	11%	63	-1.3	209/288/321	112	322	10	16	35%	9%	74	-0.5	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Nicky Lopez 2017 · A	22	47→57	42→40	57→55	51	227/302/334	107	261	9	17	17%	8%	82	+0.0	255/308/340	85	288	5	13	13%	7%	84	+0.2	264/325/346	82	304	4	14	13%	8%	92	+0.6
✕Alejandro Osuna 2023 · A	20	48→56	44→45	50→55	45	235/300/346	111	313	12	23	28%	8%	84	+0.2	231/300/353	122	307	12	19	27%	8%	86	+0.3	244/321/351	107	303	9	19	21%	8%	91	+0.5
✕Pedro Ramírez 2024 · A	20	48→57	42→45	51→55	48	234/298/345	111	291	9	14	22%	7%	82	+0.0	255/308/360	105	318	8	17	21%	6%	90	+0.6	265/318/375	110	323	9	22	20%	6%	95	+0.8
✕Taylor Trammell 2018 · A	20	46→48	42→55	57→55	44	221/281/328	107	312	8	21	30%	8%	72	-0.7	211/286/306	95	305	8	18	31%	9%	70	-0.8	213/300/386	173	283	21	17	31%	10%	93	+0.5
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→49	42→45	58→60	54	211/313/323	113	290	8	21	28%	12%	85	+0.2	220/320/345	125	277	13	33	24%	11%	93	+0.8	217/321/350	133	273	12	37	23%	11%	92	+0.8
✕Victor Arias 2024 · A	20	41→50	40→45	55→50	48	193/289/289	97	300	7	16	35%	11%	68	-1.0	227/296/340	113	318	9	15	29%	8%	81	-0.1	226/289/343	117	310	10	15	29%	7%	76	-0.3
✕Kevyn Castillo 2024 · A	19	49→46	38→50	54→55	53	227/310/317	91	295	4	19	23%	10%	81	-0.1	232/306/336	104	327	8	14	29%	9%	84	+0.1	232/311/351	119	315	11	14	28%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Max Clark 2024 · A	19	44→53	42→45	51→55	48	207/292/314	106	308	9	11	33%	10%	74	-0.5	238/314/357	119	306	11	17	24%	9%	92	+0.7	245/323/369	124	304	11	19	22%	10%	96	+0.9
✕Héctor Rodríguez 2024 · A	20	48→52	46→50	54→50	41	238/279/378	140	292	12	13	23%	4%	83	+0.1	242/280/378	136	286	14	10	20%	5%	84	+0.1	243/284/388	145	281	17	9	20%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Cole Young 2023 · A	20	51→52	45	49→50	47	249/304/371	122	299	13	11	21%	7%	91	+0.6	242/328/367	125	291	10	13	19%	10%	99	+1.3	240/330/363	124	285	10	12	18%	10%	97	+1.0
●Cody Freeman 2022 · A	21	44→54	41→50	53→50	48	212/289/312	100	263	9	11	22%	8%	73	-0.6	206/260/326	120	247	14	9	22%	6%	65	-1.2	257/301/394	137	287	15	10	16%	5%	94	+0.6
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2014 · A	21	48→55	40→50	52→50	45	231/285/319	88	290	8	13	23%	7%	72	-0.7	244/299/352	108	296	8	10	19%	7%	84	+0.1	250/311/385	135	298	13	9	20%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Rafael Ortega 2011 · A	20	51→55	38→55	54→55	47	241/287/325	83	279	5	21	16%	6%	73	-0.6	236/277/332	96	299	7	20	22%	5%	71	-0.8	239/311/399	160	284	19	17	22%	9%	99	+1.0
●Roger Bernadina 2006 · A	22	41→51	44→45	54→60	51	204/286/315	111	257	12	20	25%	9%	72	-0.7	242/303/338	96	323	8	26	25%	8%	82	+0.0	266/322/394	128	330	12	31	22%	7%	101	+1.3

Robert Arias

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps