Ethan Bagwell — OGILVIE

Ethan Bagwell P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.1 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%13.9%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%4.9%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$27M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL—45

CMD4055

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.1	$6M	+$3M
2033	Arb-2	$6M	+1.0	$5M	+$2M
2034	Arb-3	$8M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$13M		$23M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	1	1	3	12	3	1	0	100%	2.7	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.75	2.04	—
2024	18	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	1	1	3	12	3	1	0	100%	2.7	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.75	2.04	—
2024	18	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	1	1	3	12	3	1	0	100%	2.7	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.75	1.98	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	59	232	45	19	4	92%	4.5	11.4%	9.1%	2.3%	1.6%	3.05	4.15	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	59	232	45	19	4	92%	4.5	11.4%	9.1%	2.3%	1.6%	3.05	4.15	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	12	59	232	45	19	4	92%	4.5	19.4%	8.2%	11.2%	1.7%	3.05	3.42	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	21	21	108	431	105	32	6	100%	5.1	18.3%	8.7%	9.6%	1.8%	3.17	3.62	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	21	21	108	431	105	32	6	100%	5.1	18.3%	8.7%	9.6%	1.8%	3.17	3.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	ATL	13	13	68	271	69	22	1	100%	5.2	25.5%	8.1%	17.3%	0.4%	2.78	2.18	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	ATL	8	8	40	160	36	10	5	100%	5.0	22.5%	6.2%	16.2%	3.1%	3.83	3.71	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	111	469	75	39	13	100%	5.0	16.0%	8.4%	7.6%	2.8%	4.81	4.73	+0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	117	493	89	39	14	100%	5.1	18.0%	7.8%	10.2%	2.8%	4.59	4.47	+0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	121	511	99	38	14	100%	5.3	19.3%	7.5%	11.8%	2.7%	4.41	4.30	+0.9
2030	24	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	124	524	105	38	14	100%	5.6	20.0%	7.3%	12.8%	2.7%	4.28	4.20	+1.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	126	531	108	38	14	100%	6.0	20.4%	7.1%	13.3%	2.7%	4.20	4.14	+1.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	126	531	109	38	14	100%	6.0	20.6%	7.1%	13.5%	2.7%	4.15	4.12	+1.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	124	523	108	38	14	100%	5.9	20.6%	7.2%	13.4%	2.7%	4.15	4.16	+1.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	120	507	104	37	14	100%	6.0	20.5%	7.3%	13.1%	2.8%	4.20	4.24	+0.9
2035	29	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	115	484	98	37	15	100%	6.0	20.2%	7.6%	12.7%	3.0%	4.30	4.37	+0.7
2036	30	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	108	455	90	36	15	100%	6.0	19.9%	7.9%	12.0%	3.2%	4.45	4.55	+0.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	100	424	83	35	15	100%	5.9	19.5%	8.2%	11.3%	3.4%	4.63	4.75	+0.2
2038	32	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	93	393	75	34	14	100%	5.8	19.0%	8.6%	10.4%	3.7%	4.84	4.98	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	55	232	37	19	7	100%	5.0	16.0%	8.4%	7.6%	2.8%	4.81	4.73	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	ATL	17	17	85	359	65	28	10	100%	5.0	18.0%	7.8%	10.2%	2.8%	4.59	4.47	+0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	102	431	83	32	12	100%	5.4	19.3%	7.5%	11.8%	2.7%	4.41	4.30	+0.7
2030	24	MLB CTX	ATL	20	20	111	469	94	34	13	100%	5.5	20.0%	7.3%	12.8%	2.7%	4.28	4.20	+0.9
2031	25	MLB CTX	ATL	20	20	115	486	99	35	13	100%	5.8	20.4%	7.1%	13.3%	2.7%	4.20	4.14	+1.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	ATL	20	20	117	494	102	35	13	100%	5.8	20.6%	7.1%	13.5%	2.7%	4.15	4.12	+1.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	ATL	20	20	118	498	103	36	14	100%	5.9	20.6%	7.2%	13.4%	2.7%	4.15	4.16	+1.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	114	481	99	35	14	100%	6.0	20.5%	7.3%	13.1%	2.8%	4.20	4.24	+0.9
2035	29	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	109	460	93	35	14	100%	6.1	20.2%	7.6%	12.7%	3.0%	4.30	4.37	+0.7
2036	30	MLB CTX	ATL	17	17	102	431	86	34	14	100%	6.0	19.9%	7.9%	12.0%	3.2%	4.45	4.55	+0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	95	401	78	33	14	100%	5.9	19.5%	8.2%	11.3%	3.4%	4.63	4.75	+0.2
2038	32	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	88	372	71	32	14	100%	5.9	19.0%	8.6%	10.4%	3.7%	4.84	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		210	210	1212	5117	1009	389	150	100%	5.8	19.7%	7.6%	12.1%	2.9%	4.38	4.00	+13.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	167	64	25	100%	5.8	19.7%	7.6%	12.1%	2.9%	4.38	4.00	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		35	34	170	675	108	60	11	97%	4.8	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	1.7%	3.18	3.77	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	40	200	796	128	70	13	97%	4.8	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	1.7%	3.18	3.77	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Bagwell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	13.9%	8.9%	2.9%	—	4.49	17.8%	9.9%	349	-0.52	—	—	—
Alfred Gutierrez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	20	SP	4.38	12.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.290	4.17	18.6%	10.9%	235	-0.21	3.57	417	89
A.J. Puckett R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	21	SP	4.12	13.4%	8.6%	1.9%	.255	3.87	15.5%	5.6%	136	-0.25	3.46	438	88
Alex Scherff R 2018 · 5.19 FIP	20	SP	5.19	13.9%	10.0%	3.6%	.321	4.65	16.6%	5.2%	146	-0.54	3.07	291	86
Shane Watson R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	21	SP	5.11	11.5%	10.6%	3.0%	.333	4.91	12.5%	2.1%	194	-0.20	4.51	237	86
Damon Casetta-Stubbs R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	20	SP	4.29	13.4%	7.5%	2.5%	.377	6.37	17.1%	0.0%	78	+2.08	4.29	122	86
Tyler Schlaffer R 2021 · 5.17 FIP	20	SP	5.17	16.1%	10.7%	3.8%	.344	5.23	17.2%	4.5%	154	+0.06	3.79	399	85
Nathanael Perez Lopez R 2018 · 4.93 FIP	20	SP	4.93	16.2%	10.6%	3.4%	.352	6.72	19.4%	7.9%	61	+1.79	2.54	203	85
Jonathan Heasley R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP	4.68	10.5%	8.8%	2.5%	.297	4.70	20.0%	11.6%	233	+0.02	3.78	607	85
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	85
Archie Bradley R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	16.0%	10.4%	2.4%	.315	3.25	24.6%	16.2%	327	-1.15	2.23	570	85
Osman Gutierrez R 2015 · 4.23 FIP	20	SP-	4.23	13.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.322	5.15	14.6%	1.7%	143	+0.92	4.23	189	85
Colin Selby R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	20	SP	4.71	13.8%	9.9%	2.8%	.277	4.54	18.6%	7.0%	148	-0.17	2.82	361	85
Daniel Pilar R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	20	SP	4.12	10.5%	7.7%	1.7%	.275	3.25	11.6%	4.9%	66	-0.87	3.25	126	84
Miguel De Jesus R 2016 · 4.33 FIP	20	SP	4.33	15.0%	11.2%	2.0%	.236	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	112	84
Michael Santos R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP	4.11	11.1%	7.7%	1.8%	.303	3.35	14.0%	8.5%	191	-0.76	2.26	276	84
Gustavo Armas R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	20	SP	4.61	11.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.270	4.78	16.2%	10.6%	98	+0.17	3.81	245	84
Denny Lima R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	18	SP	4.21	13.3%	8.9%	2.0%	.267	5.19	14.4%	2.2%	52	+0.98	4.21	107	84
Ben Taylor R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP	3.82	14.3%	9.2%	1.4%	.297	2.96	25.1%	18.1%	167	-0.86	2.43	268	84
Kai-Wei Lin R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	20	SP	4.36	13.1%	7.4%	2.6%	.345	6.23	14.1%	3.8%	98	+1.87	4.36	228	83
Logan Sendelbach R 2015 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP	5.31	11.4%	9.2%	3.7%	.300	4.58	12.8%	4.3%	297	-0.73	4.14	340	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.1	109	19.4%	7.7%	1.13	4.42
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17