Ethan Bagwell
P
Augusta GreenJackets
+0.3
WAR
Age 20
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.7 · 2030
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.9%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%11.8%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2030
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 13 | 12 | 59 | 232 | 45 | 19 | 4 | 11.4% | 9.1% | 1.5% | 3.05 | 4.13 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 2 | 2 | 13 | 47 | 11 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.08 | — | — |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | ATL | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 20.9% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 20 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 63 | 258 | 55 | 20 | 6 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 2.3% | 3.95 | 3.52 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | ATL | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 21.6% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | ATL | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 53 | 20 | 6 | 22.6% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | ATL | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 56 | 20 | 7 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.12 | 4.03 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 59 | — | 59 | 247 | 59 | 20 | 7 | 23.9% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 3.95 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 61 | 20 | 7 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.90 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 61 | 20 | 7 | 24.5% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.87 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 61 | 19 | 7 | 24.6% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.88 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 60 | 19 | 7 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.91 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 58 | 19 | 7 | 24.4% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.95 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 56 | 19 | 7 | 24.2% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 4.02 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 54 | 18 | 7 | 23.9% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 51 | 18 | 6 | 23.7% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 48 | 17 | 6 | 23.4% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 15 | 75 | 291 | 41 | 23 | 4 | 13.9% | 8.0% | 1.2% | 3.01 | 3.60 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 40 | 200 | 779 | 110 | 62 | 11 | 13.9% | 8.0% | 1.2% | 3.01 | 3.60 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ethan Bagwell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 20.9% | 9.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.16 | 22.6% | 14.1% | 165 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Peyton Remy R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.57 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .280 | 4.71 | 16.3% | 5.2% | 140 | +1.14 | 3.57 | 286 | 91 |
| José López R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.79 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.25 | 3.12 | 543 | 89 |
| David Garner R 2028 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 89 |
| Marco Raya R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.98 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .238 | 4.57 | 20.0% | 7.3% | 191 | +0.59 | 3.98 | 319 | 89 |
| Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.45 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .312 | 3.69 | 21.5% | 12.7% | 111 | -0.76 | 3.25 | 266 | 88 |
| RJ Petit R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.50 | 20.3% | 8.4% | 3.7% | .270 | 3.45 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 177 | -1.05 | 3.09 | 231 | 88 |
| Yimmi Brasoban R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.90 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .261 | 4.36 | 16.7% | 5.3% | 78 | +0.46 | 3.33 | 149 | 88 |
| Porter Hodge R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.14 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .336 | 3.40 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 249 | -0.74 | 3.01 | 349 | 88 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2028 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .305 | 3.40 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.57 | 2.58 | 408 | 87 |
| Brendan Collins R 2028 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 87 |
| Will Latcham R 2028 · 3.49 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.49 | 20.1% | 9.4% | 1.7% | .262 | 5.25 | 16.0% | 4.7% | 79 | +1.76 | 3.49 | 134 | 86 |
| Jesus Lugo R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.79 | 17.8% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .243 | 6.27 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 45 | +2.48 | 3.79 | 113 | 86 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.56 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 90 | +0.32 | 4.10 | 196 | 86 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2028 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.45 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .331 | 6.10 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.65 | 4.45 | 283 | 86 |
| Tanner Burns R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.38 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .292 | 5.40 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.02 | 4.38 | 355 | 86 |
| Jared Karros R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.78 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.9% | .290 | 5.27 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.49 | 3.36 | 191 | 86 |
| John Russell R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.98 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 4.78 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 60 | +0.80 | 3.92 | 158 | 86 |
| Christian Zazueta R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.88 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 3.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 211 | 85 |
| Alexis Rivero R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.38 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .222 | 4.46 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 184 | +0.08 | 3.86 | 280 | 85 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2029 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 167 | -0.40 | 3.06 | 230 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.7 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.8M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $7M | $17M | +$10M | ||