Ethan Bagwell
P
Augusta GreenJackets
Age 20
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.8 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 35 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA4.98
FIP4.98
K%13.9%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%5.0%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.7 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 2.04 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.7 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 1.98 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 12 | 59 | 232 | 45 | 19 | 4 | 92% | 4.5 | 11.4% | 9.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 3.05 | 4.00 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 12 | 59 | 232 | 45 | 19 | 4 | 92% | 4.5 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 1.7% | 3.05 | 3.42 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 15 | 15 | 79 | 318 | 78 | 25 | 3 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 0.5% | 2.85 | 2.99 | +1.8 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | ATL | 7 | 7 | 35 | 148 | 20 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 13.9% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.9% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 4.98 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 114 | 466 | 98 | 38 | 7 | — | — | 21.1% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 1.5% | 3.50 | 3.60 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | ATL | 7 | 7 | 37 | 155 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.80 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | ATL | 8 | 8 | 39 | 163 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 4.8 | 18.2% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | ATL | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 33 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.5% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 35 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 7.5% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 7 | 7 | 42 | 175 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 7.4% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 7 | 7 | 42 | 175 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.8% | 7.3% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.8% | 7.4% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 7 | 7 | 40 | 168 | 35 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.7% | 7.5% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | ATL | 4 | 4 | 18 | 76 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.80 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | ATL | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.2% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | ATL | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.5% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | ATL | 7 | 7 | 37 | 156 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.2% | 7.5% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.6% | 7.4% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 20.8% | 7.3% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 20.8% | 7.4% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 33 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.7% | 7.5% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 48 | 270 | 1139 | 227 | 86 | 31 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 3.87 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 168 | 64 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 29 | 28 | 141 | 562 | 89 | 53 | 5 | 97% | 4.9 | 15.9% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 0.8% | 3.01 | 3.38 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 40 | 200 | 799 | 127 | 75 | 6 | 97% | 4.9 | 15.9% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 0.8% | 3.01 | 3.38 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ethan Bagwell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.98 | 13.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.48 | 18.0% | 10.0% | 115 | -0.50 | — | — | — |
| Alfred Gutierrez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.38 | 12.1% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.42 | 18.6% | 10.9% | 235 | +0.04 | 3.47 | 417 | 89 |
| A.J. Puckett R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.92 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 1.6% | .255 | 3.72 | 15.5% | 5.6% | 136 | -0.20 | 3.53 | 438 | 86 |
| Damon Casetta-Stubbs R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.27 | 13.4% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .377 | 6.58 | 17.1% | 0.0% | 78 | +2.31 | 4.27 | 122 | 86 |
| Nathanael Perez Lopez R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.93 | 16.2% | 10.6% | 3.4% | .352 | 6.69 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 61 | +1.76 | 2.54 | 203 | 85 |
| Tyler Schlaffer R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.21 | 16.1% | 10.7% | 3.9% | .344 | 5.39 | 17.2% | 4.5% | 154 | +0.18 | 4.01 | 363 | 85 |
| Jonathan Heasley R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.68 | 10.5% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .297 | 4.70 | 20.0% | 11.6% | 233 | +0.02 | 3.81 | 607 | 85 |
| Shane Watson R 2027 · 5.39 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.39 | 11.5% | 10.6% | 3.5% | .333 | 4.88 | 12.5% | 2.1% | 194 | -0.51 | 4.65 | 237 | 85 |
| Osman Gutierrez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.23 | 13.6% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .322 | 5.29 | 14.6% | 1.7% | 143 | +1.06 | 4.23 | 189 | 85 |
| John Klein R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.59 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.12 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 264 | -0.47 | 3.23 | 317 | 85 |
| Archie Bradley R 2028 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.36 | 16.0% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .315 | 3.18 | 24.6% | 16.2% | 327 | -1.18 | 2.25 | 570 | 85 |
| Colin Selby R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.71 | 13.8% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .277 | 4.43 | 18.6% | 7.0% | 148 | -0.28 | 2.79 | 361 | 84 |
| Michael Santos R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.16 | 11.1% | 7.7% | 1.9% | .303 | 3.40 | 14.0% | 8.5% | 191 | -0.76 | 2.26 | 276 | 84 |
| Daniel Pilar R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.12 | 10.5% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .275 | 3.25 | 11.6% | 4.9% | 66 | -0.87 | 3.25 | 126 | 84 |
| Alex Scherff R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.37 | 13.9% | 10.0% | 4.0% | .321 | 4.55 | 16.6% | 5.2% | 146 | -0.82 | 3.17 | 291 | 84 |
| Miguel De Jesus R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.33 | 15.0% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .236 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 112 | 84 |
| Gustavo Armas R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.61 | 11.2% | 7.4% | 2.8% | .270 | 5.03 | 16.2% | 10.6% | 98 | +0.42 | 3.87 | 245 | 84 |
| Ben Taylor R 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.84 | 14.3% | 9.2% | 1.4% | .297 | 2.83 | 25.1% | 18.1% | 167 | -1.01 | 2.30 | 268 | 84 |
| Kai-Wei Lin R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.36 | 13.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .345 | 6.32 | 14.1% | 3.8% | 98 | +1.96 | 4.36 | 228 | 84 |
| Cade Kuehler R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.21 | 15.5% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .266 | 6.79 | 14.5% | 2.4% | 73 | +2.58 | 4.21 | 123 | 84 |
| Dane Myers R 2028 · 4.34 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.34 | 14.7% | 9.2% | 2.4% | .284 | 5.39 | 12.2% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.34 | 125 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 39 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.06 | 4.40 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Luis Cessa ('23) | 8 | 53 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 1.40 | 4.43 |
| Tyler Duffey ('22) | 8 | 59 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.25 | 4.57 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |