Ethan Bagwell

P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#395ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	AATL	1	1	3	6.75	1.98	25.0%	8.3%	—	K 25.0% · BB 8.3% · FIP 2.04
2025	19	MIX2 levels	13	12	59	3.05	3.42	19.4%	8.2%	—	K 11.4% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.15
2026	20	MIX2 levels	21	21	108	3.17	2.77	24.4%	7.4%	—	K 18.3% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.62
2027PROJ	21	MLBATL	—	—	0	4.62	4.62	17.3%	8.6%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	22	MLBATL	6	6	29	4.45	4.37	19.1%	8.0%	0.3
2029PROJ57% MLB	23	MLBATL	9	9	48	4.30	4.22	20.2%	7.6%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$3M2033Arb-2$4M2034Arb-3$5M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 83%

CompsCurtis Taylor (age 22) · Will Rudy (age 22) · Marcel Rentería (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%17.3%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%8.7%

Proj IP76

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$31M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$21M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	1	1	3	12	3	1	0	100%	2.7	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.75	2.04	—
2024	18	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	1	1	3	12	3	1	0	100%	2.7	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.75	2.04	—
2024	18	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	1	1	3	12	3	1	0	100%	2.7	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.75	1.98	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	59	232	45	19	4	92%	4.5	11.4%	9.1%	2.3%	1.6%	3.05	4.15	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	12	59	232	45	19	4	92%	4.5	11.4%	9.1%	2.3%	1.6%	3.05	4.15	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	12	59	232	45	19	4	92%	4.5	19.4%	8.2%	11.2%	1.7%	3.05	3.42	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	108	431	105	32	6	100%	5.1	18.3%	8.7%	9.6%	1.8%	3.17	3.62	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	108	431	105	32	6	100%	5.1	18.3%	8.7%	9.6%	1.8%	3.17	3.62	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	108	431	105	32	6	100%	5.1	24.4%	7.4%	16.9%	1.4%	3.17	2.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.3%	8.6%	8.7%	2.7%	4.62	4.62	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	84	354	68	28	10	100%	5.2	19.1%	8.0%	11.1%	2.7%	4.45	4.37	+1.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	84	354	71	27	10	100%	5.2	20.2%	7.6%	12.6%	2.7%	4.30	4.22	+1.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	ATL	15	15	84	354	74	26	9	100%	5.6	20.8%	7.4%	13.4%	2.7%	4.19	4.13	+1.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	77	325	69	24	9	100%	5.9	21.2%	7.3%	13.9%	2.7%	4.12	4.07	+1.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	77	326	70	24	9	100%	5.9	21.4%	7.2%	14.2%	2.7%	4.08	4.05	+1.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	75	318	68	23	9	100%	5.8	21.4%	7.3%	14.1%	2.7%	4.09	4.09	+1.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	72	303	64	23	9	100%	6.0	21.3%	7.5%	13.8%	2.8%	4.14	4.17	+1.0
2035	29	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	67	282	59	22	8	100%	6.1	21.0%	7.7%	13.3%	3.0%	4.24	4.30	+0.9
2036	30	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	60	255	53	20	8	100%	6.0	20.7%	8.0%	12.7%	3.2%	4.39	4.48	+0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	54	228	46	19	8	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.3%	11.9%	3.4%	4.57	4.68	+0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	48	202	40	18	7	100%	6.0	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	3.6%	4.77	4.91	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	ATL	6	6	29	122	23	10	3	100%	4.8	19.1%	8.0%	11.1%	2.7%	4.45	4.37	+0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	48	203	41	15	5	100%	5.3	20.2%	7.6%	12.6%	2.7%	4.30	4.22	+0.7
2030	24	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	58	245	51	18	7	100%	5.8	20.8%	7.4%	13.4%	2.7%	4.19	4.13	+0.9
2031	25	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	60	253	54	18	7	100%	6.0	21.2%	7.3%	13.9%	2.7%	4.12	4.07	+0.9
2032	26	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	64	270	58	20	7	100%	5.8	21.4%	7.2%	14.2%	2.7%	4.08	4.05	+1.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	65	274	59	20	7	100%	5.9	21.4%	7.3%	14.1%	2.7%	4.09	4.09	+1.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	64	270	57	20	8	100%	5.8	21.3%	7.5%	13.8%	2.8%	4.14	4.17	+0.9
2035	29	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	60	253	53	19	8	100%	6.0	21.0%	7.7%	13.3%	3.0%	4.24	4.30	+0.8
2036	30	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	55	232	48	19	7	100%	6.1	20.7%	8.0%	12.7%	3.2%	4.39	4.48	+0.6
2037	31	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	50	211	43	18	7	100%	6.2	20.3%	8.3%	11.9%	3.4%	4.57	4.68	+0.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	44	186	37	16	7	100%	6.3	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	3.6%	4.77	4.91	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	102	597	2519	524	193	73	100%	5.9	20.8%	7.7%	13.1%	2.9%	4.27	3.91	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	176	65	24	100%	5.8	20.8%	7.7%	13.1%	2.9%	4.27	3.91	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		35	34	170	675	108	60	11	97%	4.8	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	1.7%	3.18	3.77	+10.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	40	200	796	128	70	13	97%	4.8	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	1.7%	3.18	3.77	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAugusta GreenJackets · 68 IPFIP 2.18 → 2.99 (+0.80)K% 25.5% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.46%	—	×0.740	18.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.12%	—	×1.180	9.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.37%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.48%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.18 → 2.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Rome Emperors · 40 IPFIP 3.71 → 4.69 (+0.98)K% 22.5% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.50%	—	×0.770	17.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.150	7.19%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.71 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAugusta GreenJackets · 50 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.15 (+0.53)K% 15.5% → 11.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.46%	—	×0.740	11.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.73%	—	×1.180	9.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷1.281	×1.300	1.57%

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Braves · 9 IPFIP 2.54 → 4.86 (+2.32)K% 39.5% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.47%	—	×0.680	26.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.250	13.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.856	×1.400	4.30%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 4.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Bagwell (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.24	20.0%	12.4%	252	-0.38	—	—	—
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	90
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	89
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	89
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	88
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	88
Dane Myers R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP	4.26	14.7%	9.2%	2.2%	.284	5.32	12.2%	0.7%	52	+1.06	4.26	125	88
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	88
Noah Bremer R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	14.7%	8.5%	2.5%	.351	3.76	18.0%	8.5%	144	-0.54	3.19	271	88
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	88
Chih-Wei Hu R 2015 · 3.78 FIP	21	SP	3.78	16.8%	7.3%	2.1%	.319	3.87	17.3%	11.1%	320	+0.09	3.41	497	87
Adam Maier R 2024 · 3.58 FIP	22	SP	3.58	16.3%	8.1%	1.5%	.323	5.13	14.3%	4.3%	188	+1.55	3.58	271	87
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	87
Archie Bradley R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	16.0%	10.4%	2.4%	.315	3.25	24.6%	16.2%	327	-1.15	2.23	570	87
Michael Murray R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.4%	7.3%	3.5%	.343	4.37	16.1%	6.8%	42	-0.34	4.32	116	87
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.18	19.6%	9.9%	293	-0.29	3.19	346	86
Mason Hickman R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.36	23.9%	11.1%	181	+0.67	4.69	300	86
Harold Arauz R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	21	SP	3.50	15.9%	7.2%	1.5%	.265	4.44	15.5%	8.5%	311	+0.94	3.03	410	86
Micah Ottenbreit R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	21	SP	4.33	17.9%	11.8%	2.3%	.305	3.42	17.7%	8.4%	47	-0.91	3.04	141	86
Nick Travieso R 2015 · 3.62 FIP	21	SP	3.62	14.8%	8.7%	1.2%	.274	4.84	14.5%	3.3%	117	+1.22	3.62	211	85
Brett Wichrowski R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	21	SP	4.11	17.0%	11.2%	1.9%	.267	4.86	16.2%	5.6%	180	+0.75	4.03	269	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	71	20.4%	7.8%	1.10	4.31
Randy Moffitt ('72-'83, 4 WAR*)	3.9	78	19.4%*	8.3%*	1.08*	4.19*
Brett Cecil ('18)	3.8	76	20.7%	8.3%	1.14	4.29
Daniel Hudson ('24)	4.3	71	22.8%	7.7%	1.01	3.74
Tim Worrell ('06)	4.9	81	17.9%	8.7%	0.99	3.97
Elias Sosa ('72-'83, 9 WAR*)	4.6	83	20.4%*	8.5%*	0.98*	3.79*
Mark Guthrie ('89-'03, 8 WAR*)	4.9	65	22.8%*	8.5%*	1.07*	4.01*