Alcides Hernandez

Alcides HernandezC ACL Padres

Age 21 L/R 5'8" / 160 lbs ROK HR +13%BB +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 2.4 · 2031

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .298 / .328

PA55

HR1

K%27

BB%9

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

51↗56

PWR

28↗33

SPD

50↗55

EYE

61↗66

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.4peak

2032

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.4	$23M	+$22M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.4	$24M	+$23M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.2	$22M	+$21M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+2.0	$21M	+$17M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.7	$18M	+$13M
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.3	$14M	+$8M
Totals		$18M		$122M	+$104M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	63	54	14	0	0	0	9	12	0	4	1	.259	.365	.259	.624	.000	.333	19	14	.293	82	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
2024	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	153	128	23	3	1	0	19	30	5	8	2	.180	.309	.219	.528	.039	.232	20	12	.240	42	-10	+1	+0	+3	+4	-0.2
2025	20	ROK	ACL Padres	50	45	6	0	0	0	4	14	0	1	2	.133	.204	.133	.337	.000	.188	28	8	.177	-6	-6	-1	+0	+1	+1	-0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	SD	55	49	11	2	0	1	5	15	1	1	0	.224	.309	.327	.636	.102	.292	27	9	.287	78	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	22	MLB 11%	SD	140	125	28	5	1	3	13	36	1	3	1	.224	.302	.352	.654	.128	.294	26	9	.300	88	-2	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.5
2028	23	MLB 28%	SD	268	237	56	10	2	6	26	66	3	6	1	.236	.320	.371	.691	.135	.295	25	10	.308	94	-2	+1	+0	+5	+8	1.2
2029	24	MLB 45%	SD	361	318	75	13	2	9	36	88	4	8	2	.236	.321	.374	.695	.138	.295	24	10	.313	98	-1	+1	+0	+6	+10	1.7
2030	25	MLB 60%	SD	416	365	88	15	3	11	43	100	5	9	2	.241	.329	.389	.718	.148	.296	24	10	.317	101	+0	+1	+0	+7	+12	2.1
2031	26	MLB 77%	SD	451	396	96	17	3	12	47	108	5	10	2	.242	.330	.391	.722	.149	.297	24	10	.319	102	+1	+1	+0	+8	+13	2.4
2032	27	MLB 92%	SD	467	410	98	17	3	12	49	113	5	10	2	.239	.328	.383	.711	.144	.297	24	10	.319	102	+1	+1	+0	+8	+13	2.4
2033	28	MLB	SD	473	415	98	17	3	12	50	115	5	10	2	.236	.326	.378	.704	.142	.297	24	11	.318	101	+1	+1	-1	+8	+13	2.4
2034	29	MLB	SD	469	411	97	17	3	12	50	115	5	9	1	.236	.326	.380	.706	.144	.296	25	11	.316	100	-0	+1	-1	+8	+13	2.2
2035	30	MLB	SD	463	406	94	16	3	11	49	115	5	9	1	.232	.322	.367	.689	.135	.295	25	11	.313	98	-1	+1	-2	+8	+13	2.0
2036	31	MLB	SD	438	383	87	15	2	10	47	111	5	8	0	.227	.320	.355	.675	.128	.294	25	11	.309	95	-3	+2	-3	+8	+12	1.7
2037	32	MLB	SD	409	359	81	14	2	9	43	106	4	7	0	.226	.315	.351	.666	.125	.293	26	11	.305	91	-4	+1	-4	+7	+12	1.3
2038	33	MLB	SD	370	324	72	12	2	8	39	98	4	6	0	.222	.313	.346	.659	.123	.292	26	11	.300	87	-5	+1	-4	+7	+10	0.9
2039	34	MLB	SD	319	280	61	10	2	6	33	87	3	6	0	.218	.307	.332	.639	.114	.291	27	10	.293	83	-6	+1	-5	+6	+9	0.5
2040	35	MLB	SD	263	232	49	8	1	5	27	75	2	5	0	.211	.299	.319	.618	.108	.289	29	10	.286	77	-7	+1	-6	+5	+7	0.1
2041	36	MLB	SD	207	182	37	6	1	3	21	61	2	4	0	.203	.293	.297	.589	.093	.287	29	10	.278	71	-7	+1	-6	+4	+6	-0.3
2042	37	MLB	SD	150	133	26	4	1	2	15	46	1	3	0	.195	.282	.286	.568	.090	.284	31	10	.269	64	-6	+1	-7	+3	+4	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5985	5252	1197	201	35	132	625	1511	65	127	19	.228	.318	.355	.672	.127	.293	25	10	.305	91	-59	+18	-38	+107	+170	20.1
/ 162G	—			650	570	130	22	4	14	68	164	7	14	2	.228	.318	.354	.672	.126	.294	25	10	.305	91	-6	+2	-4	+12	+18	2.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	63	48	15	0	0	15	8	0	4	1	.312	.476	.312	.789	.000	.375	13	24	.382	150	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2024	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	153	115	29	4	1	32	19	5	8	2	.252	.434	.304	.739	.052	.299	12	21	.356	131	+5	+1	—	—	+4	1.1
2025	20	ROK	ACL Padres	50	42	8	0	0	7	10	0	1	2	.190	.306	.190	.497	.000	.242	20	14	.242	44	-3	-1	—	—	+1	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alcides Hernandez (OGILVIE)	21	51→56	28→33	50→55	66	.218/.298/.328	.110	.292	1	1	27%	9%	78	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Richi Sanchez 2015 · A	21	49	38→45	49→50	54	.230/.313/.315	.085	.291	5	8	21%	10%	79	+0.3	.213/.274/.290	.077	.279	3	7	23%	7%	56	-1.3	.202/.252/.280	.079	.255	0	6	20%	6%	40	-0.6
✕Noah Mendlinger 2022 · A	21	48→58	39→40	45	51	.228/.304/.321	.093	.288	5	7	22%	9%	77	+0.1	.241/.330/.319	.078	.292	4	8	17%	9%	89	+0.9	.264/.349/.334	.069	.312	2	8	14%	8%	97	+1.1
●Justin Yurchak 2018 · A	21	51→61	44→40	49→40	52	.249/.317/.367	.118	.295	12	4	20%	9%	94	+1.3	.228/.288/.319	.091	.284	7	2	21%	8%	69	-0.4	.273/.337/.381	.107	.337	11	2	21%	8%	103	+1.1
✕Edgar Rondon 2016 · A	21	50	38→40	52→50	45	.230/.302/.320	.090	.314	3	12	26%	7%	76	+0.0	.214/.283/.288	.074	.342	3	11	35%	7%	59	-1.1	.171/.249/.199	.028	.339	0	12	45%	7%	20	-0.7
●TJ Friedl 2017 · A	21	48→53	42→50	51→55	42	.228/.286/.337	.109	.309	8	10	28%	6%	73	-0.1	.226/.293/.326	.100	.295	6	15	24%	7%	74	-0.1	.246/.337/.381	.136	.276	15	18	16%	10%	103	+1.8
●Drake Baldwin 2023 · A	22	48→53	38→50	50→30	47	.220/.298/.300	.081	.318	5	8	30%	9%	69	-0.4	.236/.307/.376	.140	.295	16	3	24%	9%	93	+1.3	.265/.334/.430	.166	.298	22	1	19%	9%	118	+1.8
✕Carlos Vidal 2017 · A	21	49	42→45	49→50	48	.238/.307/.349	.111	.292	9	12	21%	8%	85	+0.7	.225/.272/.314	.089	.289	5	7	23%	5%	61	-1.0	.225/.269/.312	.087	.288	4	6	22%	5%	55	-0.7
●Leo Rivas 2019 · A	21	44→54	37→40	52→65	51	.204/.293/.279	.075	.289	4	14	28%	10%	62	-0.9	.196/.276/.281	.085	.293	6	9	32%	9%	56	-1.3	.238/.354/.331	.093	.320	9	44	25%	14%	100	+1.2
●J.P. Crawford 2016 · AA	21	52→58	41→45	48→50	53	.248/.314/.348	.100	.291	8	13	17%	8%	88	+0.9	.222/.296/.324	.102	.270	9	9	20%	9%	75	-0.0	.263/.355/.386	.123	.307	11	2	17%	11%	113	+2.8
●Colt Keith 2023 · A	21	49→53	46→55	53→45	45	.236/.300/.372	.137	.327	13	8	31%	8%	89	+0.9	.251/.308/.410	.159	.313	18	5	25%	7%	102	+1.8	.253/.314/.408	.154	.307	18	4	23%	8%	102	+1.6
✕Alek Thomas 2021 · A	21	50→52	42→50	48→50	43	.241/.293/.352	.111	.314	8	10	25%	6%	79	+0.3	.243/.298/.388	.145	.306	13	11	24%	7%	92	+1.2	.243/.296/.389	.146	.295	14	11	22%	6%	87	+0.7
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2023 · A	21	49→56	41→45	50	49	.234/.299/.341	.107	.285	6	12	20%	7%	80	+0.4	.247/.308/.361	.114	.302	10	14	20%	7%	89	+0.9	.254/.316/.360	.106	.307	10	16	19%	7%	89	+0.7
✕Greg Garcia 2011 · A	21	46→53	40	45→50	43	.222/.277/.317	.095	.275	7	8	22%	5%	65	-0.7	.237/.310/.330	.093	.300	5	9	21%	8%	82	+0.5	.241/.350/.334	.093	.308	6	3	21%	13%	99	+0.8
✕Adrian Cardenas 2009 · AA	21	51→57	40	53→50	45	.246/.291/.339	.092	.297	7	13	20%	6%	75	-0.0	.259/.307/.352	.093	.307	5	9	16%	6%	85	+0.7	.269/.318/.358	.090	.312	5	8	15%	6%	90	+0.9
✕Nicky Lopez 2017 · A	22	47→57	42→40	56→55	51	.229/.303/.336	.107	.265	9	17	17%	8%	81	+0.4	.248/.301/.331	.083	.281	5	14	13%	6%	77	+0.1	.256/.317/.334	.078	.294	4	14	13%	8%	82	+0.4
✕Cam Maron 2012 · A	21	51→55	39→40	47→40	50	.241/.309/.324	.083	.299	7	5	21%	8%	80	+0.4	.239/.307/.319	.080	.310	5	3	22%	8%	77	+0.1	.246/.316/.311	.065	.316	4	2	22%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Carlos Mendoza 2022 · A	22	52→56	36→40	55	57	.240/.334/.313	.073	.289	3	18	17%	10%	89	+0.9	.240/.343/.312	.072	.309	3	14	21%	12%	92	+1.2	.252/.341/.336	.084	.311	6	19	19%	9%	94	+0.9
●Brice Turang 2021 · A	21	45→55	36→45	54→60	50	.211/.287/.276	.065	.284	3	16	25%	9%	58	-1.2	.230/.292/.324	.094	.293	8	22	23%	8%	72	-0.2	.273/.346/.393	.120	.333	12	35	20%	10%	107	+1.7
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	50→59	41→50	50	56	.236/.325/.340	.104	.299	8	10	22%	12%	91	+1.1	.251/.334/.388	.137	.334	12	14	26%	11%	107	+2.2	.247/.330/.386	.139	.319	14	15	25%	10%	103	+1.9
✕Cole Young 2023 · A	20	50→49	45	49→50	47	.245/.300/.368	.123	.296	13	11	22%	7%	87	+0.8	.232/.316/.354	.122	.279	10	13	20%	9%	91	+1.1	.227/.316/.346	.119	.270	10	12	19%	10%	86	+0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)