Alcides Hernandez

C Lake Elsinore Storm
Age 22 L/R 5'8" / 160 lbs A HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1156ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419ROKDSL Padres Go…153.252/.434/.3040845—.152/.303/.184
202520ROKSD50.190/.306/.190015—.133/.204/.133
202621A/ROKSD75.268/.431/.3570183—.246/.361/.326
2027PROJMLE22MLBSD185.211/.289/.29023660.0
2028PROJ34% MLB23MLBSD38.212/.291/.30101720.0
2029PROJ46% MLB24MLBSD84.216/.294/.31411760.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
BB%98
Chase%95
wOBA52
wRC+50
K%42
Whiff%26
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%
CompsAnthony Seigler (age 22) · Carlos Rodriguez (age 21) · Ashton McGee (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj PA
wRC+†66
AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .287 / .287
PA53
HR0
K%26
BB%9
ISO79
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +1.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.30.30.30.20.127282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus
Tools · Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2035Arb-1$0.4M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $2M +$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202318 ROKDSL Padres Brown — 6348 15000 1580 41 312476312789 375 1324 382 72 — — — — — —
202419 ROKDSL Padres Gold — 153115 29410 32195 82 252434304739 52299 1221 356 45 — — — — — —
202520 ROKACL Padres — 5042 8000 7100 12 190306190497 242 2014 242 5 — — — — — —
202621 ALake Elsinore Storm — 5138 10100 11130 00 263429289718 26370 2522 335 79 — — — — — —
202621 ROKACL Padres — 2418 5020 530 10 278435500935 222312 1221 393 91 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202318 ROK MLEDSL Padres Brown — 6352 11000 11100 41 212349212561 265 1617 275 72 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEDSL Padres Gold — 153125 19210 22245 82 152303184487 32184 1614 235 45 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEACL Padres — 5045 6000 4140 12 133204133337 196 288 176 5 — — — — — —
202621 A MLELake Elsinore Storm — 5141 10100 8180 00 244367268636 24343 3516 285 79 — — — — — —
202621 ROK MLEACL Padres — 2420 5020 340 10 250348450798 200242 1712 302 91 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL Padres Brown — 6352 11000 11100 41 212349212561 262 1617 275 72 — — — — — —
202318 ROK RAWDSL Padres Brown — 6348 15000 1580 41 312476312789 375 1324 382 72 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEDSL Padres Gold — 153125 19210 22245 82 152303184487 32186 1614 235 45 — — — — — —
202419 ROK RAWDSL Padres Gold — 153115 29410 32195 82 252434304739 52299 1221 356 45 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEACL Padres — 5045 6000 4140 12 133204133337 188 288 176 5 — — — — — —
202520 ROK RAWACL Padres — 5042 8000 7100 12 190306190497 242 2014 242 5 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 7561 14120 11220 10 230347311659 82333 2915 290 83 — — — — — —
202621 A RAW2 teams — 7556 15120 16160 10 268431357788 89349 2121 354 83 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEDSL Padres Brown — 6352 11000 11100 41 212349212561 265 1617 275 72 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEDSL Padres Gold — 153125 19210 22245 82 152303184487 32184 1614 235 45 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEACL Padres — 5046 6000 4140 12 130204130335 196 288 176 5 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 7564 14120 11220 10 219347297644 78311 2915 290 83 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 ROK MLEDSL Padres Gold — 153125 19210 22245 82 152303184487 32184 1614 235 45 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEACL Padres — 5046 6000 4140 12 130204130335 196 288 176 5 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE2 teams — 7564 14120 11220 10 219347297644 78311 2915 290 83 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLESD 0% 185165 36522 16492 31 211289290579 79286 269 266 66 -7 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLESD 34% 11098 21311 10291 20 215294305599 90288 269 274 72 -4 +0 +0 +2 +2 0.1
202924 MLB MLESD 46% 182162 35513 16472 31 219297318615 99289 269 280 76 -5 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.2
203025 MLB MLESD 52% 248222 49724 22642 41 222299328628 107289 269 285 79 -6 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.4
203126 MLB MLESD 54% 302269 60926 27773 41 224301336638 113289 259 289 82 -7 +0 +0 +5 +7 0.6
203227 MLB MLESD 54% 329294 651026 29843 41 224301337638 114289 269 289 82 -7 +0 +0 +6 +7 0.6
203328 MLB MLESD 54% 342306 671026 30883 31 222299333632 111288 269 286 80 -8 +0 -1 +6 +7 0.5
203429 MLB MLESD 53% 341305 661026 30893 21 219296326622 107286 269 282 77 -9 +0 -1 +6 +7 0.3
203530 MLB MLESD 52% 334299 641025 29883 11 216292318611 102284 269 278 74 -10 -0 -2 +6 +7 0.1
202823 MLB CTXSD 34% 3835 6100 3100 10 212291301591 88283 268 271 72 -1 +0 +0 +1 +1 0.0
202924 MLB CTXSD 46% 8476 16211 7221 10 216294314608 98284 268 277 76 -2 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.1
203025 MLB CTXSD 52% 128115 25412 11331 20 219297324621 105285 269 282 79 -3 +0 +0 +2 +3 0.2
203126 MLB CTXSD 54% 164146 32513 15422 21 221298332631 112285 269 286 82 -4 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.3
203227 MLB CTXSD 54% 178158 34513 16452 21 221298333631 112284 259 286 82 -4 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.3
203328 MLB CTXSD 54% 186166 35513 16482 21 219296328625 110283 269 283 80 -4 +0 -0 +3 +4 0.3
203429 MLB CTXSD 53% 181161 35513 16472 10 216293322615 106282 269 280 77 -5 +0 -1 +3 +4 0.2
203530 MLB CTXSD 52% 175156 34513 15462 10 213290314604 101280 269 275 74 -5 +0 -1 +3 +4 0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 11341013 21732718 9929312 123 214292313605 99281 269 281 75 -29 +1 -2 +20 +25 1.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650581 12418410 571687 72 213291310601 96281 269 281 75 -17 +1 -1 +12 +14 0.9
Career— MLE — 25822285 486681737 24665026 3812 213296306602 93278 2510 278 75 -59 +2 -4 +40 +49 2.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650575 1221749 621647 103 212297303600 90278 2510 278 75 -17 +1 -1 +12 +14 0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 51 PAwOBA .342 → .285 (−57)K% 25.5% → 34.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.49%÷1.000×1.360——34.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA21.57%÷1.000×0.690—×1.01515.11%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×1.0150.00%
Singles /BIP36.00%÷1.000×0.920—×1.01533.62%
Doubles /BIP4.00%÷1.000×0.830—×1.0153.37%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910—×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0150.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .342 → .285; ISO .026 → .023; BABIP .370 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Padres · 24 PAwOBA .401 → .302 (−100)K% 12.5% → 18.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.50%÷1.000×1.440——18.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.83%÷1.000×0.620—×0.98512.72%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.000×0.820—×0.98516.15%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Triples /BIP13.33%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9859.46%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9850.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .401 → .302; ISO .222 → .175; BABIP .312 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Padres · 50 PAwOBA .242 → .176 (−66)K% 20.0% → 28.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.00%÷1.023×1.440——28.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.00%÷0.990×0.620—×0.9958.72%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.010×0.820—×0.99520.19%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.045×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.018×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.018×0.780—×0.9950.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 102, 2B 109, 3B 104, K 105, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .242 → .176; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .242 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Padres Gold · 153 PAwOBA .351 → .235 (−116)K% 12.4% → 15.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.42%÷0.952×1.220——15.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.92%÷1.022×0.700—×0.99514.26%
HBP% /PA3.27%—×0.700—×0.9952.28%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.015×0.680×0.950×0.99515.83%
Doubles /BIP4.17%÷1.072×0.600×0.950×0.9952.20%
Triples /BIP1.04%÷1.096×0.600×0.950×0.9950.54%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.909×0.470—×0.9950.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 119, K 90, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .351 → .235; ISO .052 → .029; BABIP .299 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Padres Brown · 63 PAwOBA .374 → .275 (−99)K% 12.7% → 15.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.70%÷1.001×1.220——15.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA23.81%÷0.992×0.700—×1.00816.94%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.700—×1.0080.00%
Singles /BIP37.50%÷0.968×0.680—×1.00826.54%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.101×0.600—×1.0080.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.029×0.600—×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.929×0.470—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 94, 2B 120, 3B 106, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .374 → .275; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .375 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).