Alcides Hernandez

Alcides HernandezC Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 21 L/R 5'8" / 160 lbs A HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 43 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .277 / .229

PA43

HR0

K%25

BB%9

BABIP282

ISO25

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 56 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT56

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE66

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$10M	+$9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$9M	+$9M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.7	$8M	+$8M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+1.6	$7M	+$6M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+1.4	$6M	+$4M
2036	Arb-3	$5M	+1.1	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$15M		$44M	+$37M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	63	54	14	0	0	0	9	12	0	4	1	259	365	259	624		333	19	14	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	63	48	15	0	0	0	15	8	0	4	1	312	476	312	789		375	13	24	382	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	153	128	22	2	1	0	19	30	5	8	2	172	303	203	506	31	222	20	12	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	153	115	29	4	1	0	32	19	5	8	2	252	434	304	739	52	299	12	21	356	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	ACL Padres	—	50	45	6	0	0	0	4	14	0	1	2	133	204	133	337		188	28	8	177	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	ACL Padres	—	50	42	8	0	0	0	7	10	0	1	2	190	306	190	497		242	20	14	242	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	SD	—	65	53	15	1	2	0	9	14	0	1	0	283	387	377	764	94	357	22	14	330	111	+1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.4
YTD	21	A	SD	—	65	48	15	1	2	0	14	10	0	1	0	312	468	417	884	104	366	15	22	387	154	+4	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.7
ROS	21	A	SD	0%	43	39	8	1	0	0	4	11	0	1	0	203	277	229	506	25	302	25	9	286	77	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
ROS	21	MLB	SD	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		299	—	—	277	70	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	A	SD	—	65	54	15	1	2	0	9	14	0	1	0	278	387	370	757	93	349	22	14	330	111	+1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.4
TOT	21	A	SD	—	108	92	23	2	2	0	13	25	0	2	0	249	342	314	656	65	327	23	12	312	97	-0	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	SD	34%	176	154	36	5	2	2	18	43	2	3	1	234	322	331	653	97	300	24	10	293	82	-4	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.5
2028	23	MLB	SD	48%	295	260	61	9	3	4	30	71	3	6	1	235	321	338	659	104	300	24	10	298	87	-4	+1	+0	+5	+8	1.0
2029	24	MLB	SD	53%	379	334	78	12	3	6	38	90	4	8	2	234	319	341	660	108	301	24	10	302	89	-5	+1	+0	+7	+11	1.4
2030	25	MLB	SD	55%	428	378	89	13	4	7	43	101	4	9	2	235	320	347	667	111	301	24	10	304	91	-4	+1	+0	+8	+12	1.7
2031	26	MLB	SD	56%	459	406	95	14	4	8	46	109	4	10	2	234	318	347	665	113	300	24	10	305	91	-4	+1	+0	+8	+13	1.8
2032	27	MLB	SD	55%	472	416	98	15	4	8	48	112	5	10	3	236	322	349	671	113	300	24	10	305	91	-5	+1	+0	+8	+13	1.8
2033	28	MLB	SD	55%	476	419	99	15	4	8	49	114	5	10	3	236	323	348	672	112	300	24	10	304	91	-5	+1	-1	+8	+13	1.7
2034	29	MLB	SD	53%	472	416	97	14	4	8	49	114	4	10	2	233	320	344	664	111	299	24	10	302	89	-6	+1	-1	+8	+13	1.6
2035	30	MLB	SD	53%	464	409	95	14	4	8	48	113	4	9	2	232	319	345	664	112	298	24	10	299	87	-7	+1	-2	+8	+13	1.4
2036	31	MLB	SD	52%	439	387	88	13	3	7	45	108	4	8	2	227	314	331	645	103	296	25	10	295	84	-8	+1	-3	+8	+12	1.1
2037	32	MLB	SD	52%	410	361	80	11	3	6	42	103	4	8	2	222	310	319	628	97	293	25	10	290	80	-9	+1	-4	+7	+12	0.7
2027	22	MLB	SD	34%	60	53	13	2	1	1	6	15	1	1	0	245	333	377	711	132	296	25	10	283	75	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	23	MLB	SD	48%	143	127	29	4	1	2	14	34	1	3	1	228	310	323	633	94	297	24	10	288	79	-3	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2029	24	MLB	SD	53%	200	176	41	6	2	3	20	48	2	4	1	233	318	341	659	108	297	24	10	292	82	-4	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.6
2030	25	MLB	SD	55%	234	206	48	7	2	4	24	55	2	5	1	233	319	345	664	112	297	24	10	294	83	-5	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.7
2031	26	MLB	SD	56%	255	225	52	8	2	4	26	60	2	5	1	231	316	338	654	107	297	24	10	294	83	-5	+1	+0	+5	+7	0.8
2032	27	MLB	SD	55%	260	229	53	8	2	4	27	62	2	6	1	231	318	336	654	105	297	24	10	294	83	-5	+1	+0	+5	+7	0.8
2033	28	MLB	SD	55%	260	229	53	8	2	4	27	62	2	5	1	231	318	336	654	105	296	24	10	293	83	-5	+1	-0	+5	+7	0.7
2034	29	MLB	SD	53%	252	222	50	7	2	4	26	61	2	5	1	225	312	329	641	104	296	24	10	292	81	-5	+1	-1	+4	+7	0.6
2035	30	MLB	SD	53%	244	215	49	7	2	4	25	59	2	5	1	228	314	335	649	107	295	24	10	289	79	-6	+1	-1	+4	+7	0.5
2036	31	MLB	SD	52%	229	201	45	6	2	3	24	56	2	4	1	224	313	318	631	95	292	24	10	285	76	-6	+0	-1	+4	+6	0.3
2037	32	MLB	SD	52%	213	187	42	6	2	3	22	53	2	4	1	225	313	326	639	102	289	25	10	280	73	-7	+0	-2	+4	+6	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2350	2071	475	69	20	36	241	565	20	47	10	229	316	334	650	105	297	24	10	290	80	-52	+5	-6	+42	+67	5.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	132	19	6	10	67	156	6	13	3	230	318	337	655	106	298	24	10	290	80	-14	+1	-2	+12	+18	1.6
Career	—			—	4779	4206	966	138	39	72	492	1145	48	105	27	230	317	332	650	103	297	24	10	297	85	-79	+10	-10	+85	+135	14.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	132	19	5	10	67	156	7	14	4	231	319	334	653	103	298	24	10	297	85	-11	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	63	48	15	0	0	15	8	0	4	1	312	476	312	789		375	13	24	382	150	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2024	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	153	115	29	4	1	32	19	5	8	2	252	434	304	739	52	299	12	21	356	131	+5	+1	—	—	+4	1.1
2025	20	ROK	ACL Padres	—	50	42	8	0	0	7	10	0	1	2	190	306	190	497		242	20	14	242	44	-3	-1	—	—	+1	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Austin Barneslast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,639 PA	8	1,639	35	22	225	325	344	+29	+59	12.4	12.5
	/162	664	14	9	225	325	344	+11.9	+23.8	5.0	pk7: 13
#3Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,420	40	49	234	316	342	+43	+28	8.1	7.2
	/162	664	11	14	234	316	342	+11.9	+7.7	2.2	pk7: 6
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alcides Hernandez (OGILVIE)	21	51→56	28→33	50→55	66	249/342/314	65	327	0	2	23%	12%	97	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Edgar Rondon 2016 · A	21	50	38→40	52→50	45	231/304/321	90	315	3	12	26%	7%	77	+0.1	213/282/287	74	343	3	10	36%	7%	59	-1.1	171/249/199	28	339	0	12	45%	7%	20	-0.7
✕Carlos Mendoza 2021 · A	21	47→56	35→40	51→55	53	218/299/284	66	260	2	16	16%	9%	66	-0.6	237/342/307	70	303	3	14	20%	12%	91	+1.1	245/334/339	93	298	8	19	19%	9%	92	+0.8
✕Richi Sanchez 2015 · A	21	49	38→45	49→50	53	229/311/311	82	291	5	8	22%	10%	78	+0.2	212/272/290	78	279	3	7	23%	7%	55	-1.4	202/252/280	79	255	0	6	20%	6%	40	-0.6
✕Brent Keys 2011 · A	21	48→58	35→30	49→50	51	224/291/282	57	273	2	12	18%	8%	61	-1.0	252/311/316	64	304	3	13	17%	7%	78	+0.2	277/340/332	55	310	2	12	10%	8%	90	+0.7
✕Tucker Barnhart 2012 · A	21	49→54	37→45	47→40	46	228/284/307	79	298	3	5	23%	7%	65	-0.7	222/281/300	78	279	5	3	21%	7%	61	-1.0	242/327/368	126	287	12	2	19%	11%	89	+0.7
✕Noah Mendlinger 2022 · A	21	49→59	39→40	44→45	51	229/306/320	91	288	5	6	21%	9%	78	+0.2	243/331/320	77	296	4	8	18%	9%	89	+0.9	272/355/343	71	323	2	8	15%	8%	101	+1.3
✕Cam Maron 2012 · A	21	51→59	39→40	47→40	50	243/312/324	82	301	6	5	21%	8%	81	+0.4	242/311/323	81	316	5	3	23%	8%	80	+0.4	242/315/320	78	319	4	1	23%	9%	77	+0.1
✕José Godoy 2016 · A	21	50	36→45	48→30	50	233/297/301	67	280	4	5	18%	8%	69	-0.4	250/306/328	78	298	5	3	17%	6%	79	+0.3	260/316/340	80	308	6	2	17%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2023 · A	20	47	37→45	47→55	54	220/301/294	74	277	4	12	20%	10%	69	-0.4	211/284/306	95	333	9	15	36%	9%	65	-0.7	194/268/287	93	319	11	18	39%	8%	51	-0.6
✕Ryan Kalish 2009 · A	21	50→51	38→50	50→55	46	234/296/315	81	316	6	12	26%	8%	72	-0.2	239/298/374	135	298	14	20	24%	7%	89	+0.9	240/300/379	139	295	15	24	23%	7%	88	+0.7
✕Logan Watkins 2011 · A	21	50→52	36→40	51→55	46	233/292/306	73	316	2	11	26%	7%	67	-0.5	230/292/322	92	306	5	15	25%	7%	72	-0.2	224/291/318	95	296	6	16	25%	8%	67	-0.5
✕Dan Robinson 2019 · A	22	52	38→40	51→50	51	243/305/334	91	287	4	10	16%	8%	80	+0.4	215/282/292	77	281	4	7	23%	8%	59	-1.1	197/270/264	67	260	2	5	23%	9%	44	-1.3
●Drew Cumberland 2010 · A	21	52	37→45	56→55	50	245/306/328	83	287	4	17	15%	7%	79	+0.3	268/312/400	132	319	12	18	19%	5%	100	+1.7	315/345/479	164	369	17	25	19%	3%	131	+2.1
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2023 · A	21	50→55	41→45	50	49	236/301/346	110	285	6	12	19%	7%	82	+0.5	249/307/362	113	307	9	14	21%	7%	89	+0.9	254/315/362	108	309	9	16	20%	7%	88	+0.7
✕Daniel Vellojin 2021 · A	21	45	39→45	47→45	51	215/298/306	91	267	6	8	21%	9%	71	-0.3	200/293/314	114	279	11	5	29%	11%	72	-0.2	179/275/290	111	249	12	4	31%	11%	56	-0.7
✕Josh Johnson 2007 · A	21	46→49	37→45	49→50	57	215/306/291	76	273	4	11	21%	11%	71	-0.3	220/302/287	67	289	3	10	22%	10%	68	-0.5	249/317/359	110	296	9	16	18%	9%	89	+0.6
●Jorbit Vivas 2021 · A	20	46→56	37→45	49→50	46	217/288/299	82	276	3	11	21%	7%	66	-0.6	248/321/370	122	279	11	7	15%	7%	98	+1.6	245/326/365	120	273	11	9	14%	7%	96	+1.4
✕Carlos Vidal 2017 · A	21	48	43→45	49→50	48	234/302/348	114	288	10	12	22%	7%	83	+0.6	232/278/326	94	303	6	7	24%	5%	66	-0.6	237/281/332	95	308	5	6	24%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	51→53	39→40	54→50	56	239/327/329	91	293	6	14	19%	11%	89	+1.0	243/317/334	91	314	8	14	23%	8%	86	+0.8	243/318/331	88	313	8	14	23%	8%	83	+0.4
✕Osleivis Basabe 2022 · A	21	53→61	38→45	55→50	44	249/292/335	86	307	5	15	20%	5%	74	-0.1	258/303/359	101	313	5	15	18%	5%	85	+0.7	259/305/360	100	312	5	15	18%	5%	83	+0.4