Bryce Meccage — OGILVIE

Bryce Meccage P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 49 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%18.9%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP49

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL2045

CMD2045

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$10M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	19	19	70	292	69	26	4	100%	3.7	17.5%	10.5%	7.0%	1.5%	4.35	3.76	—
2025	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	19	19	70	292	69	26	4	100%	3.7	17.5%	10.5%	7.0%	1.5%	4.35	3.76	—
2025	19	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	19	19	70	292	69	26	4	100%	3.7	23.6%	8.9%	14.7%	1.4%	4.35	2.99	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	5	5	17	77	15	19	2	100%	3.3	15.0%	28.4%	-13.4%	3.2%	6.48	7.21	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	5	5	17	77	15	19	2	100%	3.3	15.0%	28.4%	-13.4%	3.2%	6.48	7.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A+ RAW	MIL	5	5	17	77	15	19	2	100%	3.3	19.5%	24.7%	-5.2%	2.6%	6.48	6.01	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	66	281	57	29	8	100%	5.5	20.2%	10.3%	9.9%	2.7%	4.65	4.59	+0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	70	295	63	28	8	100%	5.4	21.5%	9.7%	11.9%	2.7%	4.47	4.37	+0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	72	306	68	28	8	100%	5.6	22.4%	9.2%	13.1%	2.7%	4.32	4.23	+0.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	74	313	72	28	8	100%	5.7	22.9%	9.0%	13.9%	2.6%	4.21	4.14	+0.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	75	317	74	28	8	100%	5.8	23.3%	8.9%	14.4%	2.6%	4.14	4.09	+0.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	75	317	75	28	8	100%	5.8	23.5%	8.9%	14.7%	2.6%	4.09	4.06	+0.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	74	312	73	28	8	100%	6.2	23.5%	8.9%	14.6%	2.7%	4.10	4.10	+0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	72	303	71	28	8	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.1%	14.3%	2.8%	4.15	4.18	+0.6
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	69	290	67	27	9	100%	6.2	23.1%	9.3%	13.8%	2.9%	4.25	4.32	+0.5
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	64	272	62	26	9	100%	5.9	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	3.1%	4.40	4.49	+0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	33	139	28	14	4	100%	5.5	20.2%	10.3%	9.9%	2.9%	4.73	4.67	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	51	215	46	21	6	100%	5.7	21.5%	9.7%	11.9%	2.8%	4.54	4.44	+0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	61	258	58	24	7	100%	5.5	22.4%	9.2%	13.1%	2.8%	4.39	4.30	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	66	279	64	25	8	100%	5.5	22.9%	9.0%	13.9%	2.8%	4.28	4.21	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	69	291	68	26	8	100%	5.8	23.3%	8.9%	14.4%	2.8%	4.21	4.16	+0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	70	296	69	26	8	100%	5.8	23.5%	8.9%	14.7%	2.8%	4.16	4.13	+0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	70	296	69	26	8	100%	5.8	23.5%	8.9%	14.6%	2.8%	4.17	4.17	+0.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	68	287	67	26	8	100%	6.2	23.4%	9.1%	14.3%	2.9%	4.23	4.26	+0.6
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	65	274	63	26	8	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.3%	13.8%	3.1%	4.33	4.40	+0.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	61	258	59	25	8	100%	6.1	22.8%	9.6%	13.2%	3.3%	4.49	4.58	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	108	615	2597	593	239	75	100%	5.7	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	2.9%	4.32	3.93	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	193	78	24	100%	5.7	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	2.9%	4.32	3.93	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		24	24	87	369	63	53	7	100%	3.6	17.0%	14.2%	2.7%	1.8%	4.76	4.48	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	55	200	848	144	121	16	100%	3.6	17.0%	14.2%	2.7%	1.8%	4.76	4.48	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Meccage (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	18.9%	11.0%	2.8%	—	4.39	21.4%	11.7%	209	-0.41	—	—	—
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	90
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	87
Edgar Moreta R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	19	SP	3.94	16.3%	9.8%	1.8%	.269	5.11	17.7%	9.2%	117	+1.17	3.94	170	87
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	87
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	85
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	85
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	85
Adrian Navas R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	19	SP	3.67	18.5%	11.9%	1.2%	.272	5.27	16.8%	7.1%	145	+1.60	3.67	204	84
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	84
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	84
Alec Kisena R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	248	83
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	83
Marco Raya R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP	3.99	19.9%	9.6%	2.5%	.238	4.82	20.3%	9.4%	253	+0.83	3.99	380	83
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	83
Tomas Cleto R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	20	SP	4.13	15.0%	11.3%	1.6%	.233	3.88	15.5%	5.7%	75	-0.25	3.15	117	83
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	82
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	82
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	82
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	82
Michael Dominguez R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	20	SP	4.09	17.9%	11.1%	2.0%	.289	5.72	20.1%	5.0%	280	+1.63	3.82	383	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	69	22.4%	9.4%	1.07	4.31
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70