Bryce Meccage — OGILVIE

Bryce Meccage P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 49 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%18.9%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP49

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL2045

CMD2045

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	19	A	Carolina Mudcats	19	19	70	292	69	26	4	100%	3.7	17.5%	10.5%	7.0%	1.2%	4.35	3.64	—
2025	19	A	Carolina Mudcats	19	19	70	292	69	26	4	100%	3.7	23.6%	8.9%	14.7%	1.4%	4.35	2.99	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	5	5	17	77	15	19	2	100%	3.3	15.0%	28.4%	-13.4%	3.2%	6.48	7.21	-0.5
ROS	20	MLB	MIL	9	9	49	208	39	22	6	100%	5.5	18.9%	10.8%	8.2%	2.7%	4.75	4.75	-0.1
ROS	20	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.9%	10.8%	8.2%	2.7%	4.72	4.72	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	MIL	—	—	66	285	54	41	8	—	—	19.1%	14.5%	4.5%	2.7%	5.19	5.37	-0.5
2026 FULL	20	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	18.9%	10.8%	8.2%	2.7%	4.72	4.34	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	MIL	9	9	52	218	44	22	6	100%	5.7	20.2%	10.2%	10.0%	2.7%	4.62	4.55	0.0
2028	22	MLB	MIL	10	10	54	229	49	22	6	100%	5.4	21.5%	9.6%	12.0%	2.7%	4.45	4.34	+0.1
2029	23	MLB	MIL	10	10	56	238	53	22	6	100%	5.6	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	2.6%	4.30	4.21	+0.2
2030	24	MLB	MIL	10	10	58	244	56	22	6	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.9%	14.0%	2.6%	4.19	4.12	+0.3
2031	25	MLB	MIL	10	10	58	247	57	22	6	100%	5.8	23.3%	8.8%	14.5%	2.6%	4.11	4.06	+0.3
2032	26	MLB	MIL	10	10	58	247	58	22	6	100%	5.8	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	2.6%	4.07	4.04	+0.3
2033	27	MLB	MIL	10	10	58	243	57	22	6	100%	5.8	23.5%	8.9%	14.6%	2.7%	4.07	4.08	+0.3
2027	21	MLB	MIL	5	5	26	110	22	11	3	100%	5.2	20.2%	10.2%	10.0%	2.7%	4.59	4.52	+0.0
2028	22	MLB	MIL	7	7	40	169	36	16	4	100%	5.7	21.5%	9.6%	12.0%	2.6%	4.42	4.31	+0.1
2029	23	MLB	MIL	9	9	48	203	45	19	5	100%	5.3	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	2.6%	4.27	4.18	+0.2
2030	24	MLB	MIL	9	9	51	215	49	19	6	100%	5.7	22.9%	8.9%	14.0%	2.6%	4.16	4.09	+0.3
2031	25	MLB	MIL	9	9	54	228	53	20	6	100%	6.0	23.3%	8.8%	14.5%	2.6%	4.08	4.03	+0.3
2032	26	MLB	MIL	9	9	54	228	54	20	6	100%	6.0	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	2.6%	4.04	4.01	+0.3
2033	27	MLB	MIL	9	9	55	232	55	21	6	100%	6.1	23.5%	8.9%	14.6%	2.6%	4.04	4.05	+0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			59	59	327	1381	314	125	36	100%	5.5	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	2.6%	4.19	3.75	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—			36	36	200	844	192	76	22	100%	5.6	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	2.6%	4.19	3.75	+3.8
Career	—			24	24	87	369	63	53	6	100%	3.6	17.0%	14.2%	2.7%	1.7%	4.76	4.38	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—			55	55	200	848	144	121	14	100%	3.6	17.0%	14.2%	2.7%	1.7%	4.76	4.38	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Meccage (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	18.9%	10.8%	2.7%	—	4.36	21.4%	11.8%	162	-0.39	—	—	—
José López R 2027 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.72	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.32	3.08	543	90
Logan Gragg R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	20	SP	4.02	17.4%	9.5%	2.2%	.343	5.04	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.02	4.02	412	87
Chih-Jung Liu R 2028 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	18.8%	10.5%	3.4%	.331	6.04	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.32	4.72	283	86
John Klein R 2027 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP	4.59	17.4%	11.4%	2.8%	.287	4.12	20.0%	10.4%	264	-0.47	3.23	317	85
Jordany Ventura R 2025 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	85
Adrian Navas R 2025 · 3.67 FIP	19	SP	3.67	18.5%	11.9%	1.2%	.272	5.34	16.8%	7.1%	145	+1.67	3.67	204	84
Ryan Harvey R 2028 · 4.98 FIP	22	SP	4.98	16.7%	13.1%	3.0%	.294	3.81	16.9%	3.9%	66	-1.17	3.56	112	84
Nate Dohm R 2028 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	21.1%	11.5%	3.8%	.309	4.59	17.7%	2.6%	40	-0.27	4.59	115	84
Christian Roa R 2028 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	19.6%	12.4%	3.6%	.321	4.92	22.7%	6.2%	260	-0.10	4.38	406	83
Alec Kisena R 2025 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	248	83
Levi Wells R 2028 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	20.0%	12.1%	2.5%	.360	3.85	19.2%	9.8%	132	-0.47	3.70	192	83
Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	83
Bryce Cunningham R 2028 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	19.3%	9.9%	2.4%	.268	5.93	17.4%	2.1%	47	+1.87	4.06	101	83
Marco Raya R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP	3.83	19.9%	9.6%	2.2%	.238	4.84	20.2%	8.3%	230	+1.01	3.83	358	83
Tanner Burns R 2028 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	22.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.292	5.42	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.35	4.07	378	83
Jaxon Wiggins R 2028 · 3.61 FIP	22	SP	3.61	22.5%	12.8%	1.4%	.286	3.29	24.5%	11.4%	79	-0.32	3.12	132	83
Darlin Saladin R 2026 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.98	18.8%	7.8%	255	-1.00	2.91	388	82
Tomas Cleto R 2026 · 4.13 FIP	20	SP	4.13	15.0%	11.3%	1.6%	.233	3.86	15.5%	5.7%	75	-0.27	3.09	117	82
Kamdyn Perry R 2026 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP	5.18	18.6%	12.8%	3.7%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	5.18	123	82
Chad Patrick R 2029 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	20.3%	9.9%	2.3%	.315	4.36	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.44	3.76	537	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	55	22.1%	9.3%	1.03	4.31
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	7	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40
Hansel Robles ('22)	7	59	25.3%	10.1%	1.16	3.86
Archie Bradley ('21)	6	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93