Bryce Meccage

P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2031

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#628ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ACarolina Mudc…	19	19	70	4.35	2.99	23.6%	8.9%	—	K 17.5% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.76
2026	20	A+MIL	5	5	17	6.48	6.28	19.5%	24.7%	—	K 15.0% · BB 28.4% · FIP 7.21
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIL	—	—	0	5.59	5.59	18.1%	16.2%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIL	5	5	25	5.33	5.19	20.1%	13.9%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIL	7	7	38	5.04	4.89	21.3%	12.5%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 2.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsRyan Harvey (age 22) · Luis Hernandez (age 21) · Henry Williams (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.59

FIP5.59

K%18.1%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%2.0%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	19	19	70	292	69	26	4	100%	3.7	17.5%	10.5%	7.0%	1.5%	4.35	3.76	—
2025	19	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	19	19	70	292	69	26	4	100%	3.7	17.5%	10.5%	7.0%	1.5%	4.35	3.76	—
2025	19	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	19	19	70	292	69	26	4	100%	3.7	23.6%	8.9%	14.7%	1.4%	4.35	2.99	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	5	5	17	77	15	19	2	100%	3.3	15.0%	28.4%	-13.4%	3.2%	6.48	7.21	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	5	5	17	77	15	19	2	100%	3.3	15.0%	28.4%	-13.4%	3.2%	6.48	7.21	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	5	5	17	77	15	19	2	100%	3.3	19.5%	24.7%	-5.2%	2.6%	6.48	6.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.1%	16.2%	2.0%	2.9%	5.59	5.59	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	51	217	44	30	6	100%	5.7	20.1%	13.9%	6.2%	2.9%	5.25	5.11	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	51	217	46	27	6	100%	5.7	21.3%	12.5%	8.8%	2.8%	4.96	4.81	+0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	51	217	48	25	6	100%	5.7	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	2.8%	4.75	4.62	+0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	49	206	46	23	6	100%	6.1	22.4%	11.0%	11.4%	2.8%	4.60	4.51	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	49	206	47	23	6	100%	6.1	22.6%	10.9%	11.7%	2.8%	4.53	4.49	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	48	201	45	22	6	100%	6.0	22.6%	11.0%	11.6%	2.8%	4.53	4.52	+0.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	45	191	43	21	6	100%	5.7	22.4%	11.2%	11.3%	2.9%	4.58	4.61	+0.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	7	7	42	177	39	20	5	100%	6.0	22.2%	11.4%	10.8%	3.1%	4.68	4.74	+0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	6	6	38	160	35	19	5	100%	6.3	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	3.3%	4.82	4.92	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	5	5	25	106	21	15	3	100%	5.0	20.1%	13.9%	6.2%	3.0%	5.33	5.19	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	38	160	34	20	5	100%	5.4	21.3%	12.5%	8.8%	3.0%	5.04	4.89	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	43	182	40	21	5	100%	5.4	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	2.9%	4.83	4.70	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	43	182	41	20	5	100%	6.1	22.4%	11.0%	11.4%	2.9%	4.68	4.59	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	45	190	43	21	6	100%	5.6	22.6%	10.9%	11.7%	2.9%	4.61	4.57	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	44	186	42	20	6	100%	6.3	22.6%	11.0%	11.6%	3.0%	4.61	4.60	+0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	42	177	40	20	5	100%	6.0	22.4%	11.2%	11.3%	3.1%	4.66	4.69	+0.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	40	169	38	19	5	100%	5.7	22.2%	11.4%	10.8%	3.2%	4.76	4.82	+0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	36	152	33	18	5	100%	6.0	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	3.5%	4.91	5.01	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	61	356	1502	331	173	46	100%	5.8	22.0%	11.5%	10.5%	3.1%	4.79	4.38	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	186	97	26	100%	5.8	22.0%	11.5%	10.5%	3.1%	4.79	4.38	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		24	24	87	369	63	53	7	100%	3.6	17.0%	14.2%	2.7%	1.8%	4.76	4.48	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	55	200	848	144	121	16	100%	3.6	17.0%	14.2%	2.7%	1.8%	4.76	4.48	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 17 IPFIP 6.01 → 7.21 (+1.20)K% 19.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.48%	—	×0.770	15.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.68%	—	×1.150	28.38%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.25%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.01 → 7.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 70 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.76 (+0.78)K% 23.6% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.63%	—	×0.740	17.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.90%	—	×1.180	10.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷1.214	×1.300	1.47%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 143).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Meccage (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.85	21.1%	8.5%	154	-0.74	—	—	—
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	86
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	85
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	85
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	85
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	85
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	83
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	83
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	83
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	83
Trevor Bauer R 2012 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP	4.79	22.1%	16.9%	2.6%	.267	4.08	21.8%	11.8%	346	-0.71	2.16	1,298	83
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	82
Evan Johnson R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP	4.42	15.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.287	4.56	25.7%	8.6%	65	+0.14	4.42	103	81
Luis Ghisays R 2024 · 5.74 FIP	18	SP	5.74	13.8%	15.0%	3.5%	.291	5.08	16.2%	5.4%	75	-0.66	4.58	110	81
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	81
Justin Jarvis R 2021 · 5.34 FIP	21	SP	5.34	16.7%	14.1%	3.4%	.300	5.08	19.7%	9.0%	347	-0.26	4.36	559	81
Nolan Perry R 2024 · 4.88 FIP	20	SP	4.88	20.4%	22.2%	1.2%	.303	3.62	27.9%	16.8%	83	-1.26	3.62	167	81
Marlon Nieves R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	19	SP	5.63	17.9%	20.0%	2.8%	.300	4.19	18.6%	1.2%	134	-1.44	3.82	187	80
Mason Denaburg R 2022 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	16.3%	16.4%	2.1%	.278	5.84	13.1%	-7.7%	92	+0.89	4.48	151	80
Marlon De La Cruz R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	18	SP	5.31	17.1%	20.9%	1.8%	.306	5.34	13.8%	-6.9%	101	+0.03	4.35	140	80
Jose Diaz R 2021 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP	5.27	16.5%	17.5%	2.5%	.357	5.01	17.6%	0.9%	89	-0.26	3.91	189	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	46	21.6%	12.0%	1.12	4.82
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*