Luke Dickerson

SS Fredericksburg Nationals
Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 197 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
OGV OFP35OGV rank#963ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202519A/ROKWSH359.208/.317/.32662232—.153/.239/.237
202620A+/AWSH527.218/.381/.390132663—.165/.286/.290
2027PROJMLE21MLBWSH637.165/.273/.275111859-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBWSH172.174/.281/.2974567-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBWSH260.181/.287/.31878740.0
Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$5M2033Arb-3$6M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
Chase%97
BB%81
Speed74
wRC+5
wOBA4
ISO4
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 3.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%
CompsKyren Paris (age 21) · Joshua Báez (age 21) · Cameron Cauley (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA
wRC+†59
AVG/OBP/SLG.164 / .271 / .272
PA210
HR4
SB6
K%41
BB%12
ISO110
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -10.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-10BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -1.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.30.40.50.527282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1.0M+$0.3M
2031Arb-1$2M+0.4$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Arb-2$5M+0.5$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Arb-3$6M+0.5$1M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $0.8M $4M +$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202519 AFredericksburg Nationals — 333285 581425 41844 215 204312319631 116266 2512 290 30 — — — — — —
202519 ROKFCL Nationals — 2622 6001 440 11 273385409794 136294 1515 361 57 — — — — — —
202620 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks — 9681 11300 15420 70 136271173444 37282 4416 225 -16 — — — — — —
202620 AFredericksburg Nationals — 431332 7919513 911173 197 238406443849 205319 2721 379 80 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202519 A MLEFredericksburg Nationals — 333296 441014 301184 215 149236230466 81224 359 213 30 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 2624 5001 260 11 208269333603 125248 238 253 57 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLEWilmington Blue Rocks — 9687 8200 9550 70 92177115292 23245 579 145 -16 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEFredericksburg Nationals — 431359 6515410 641593 197 181310329639 148271 3715 286 80 — — — — — —
202519 A MLE2 teams — 359320 491014 321244 226 153239228467 75231 359 216 32 — — — — — —
202519 A RAW2 teams — 359307 641426 45884 226 208317326643 117269 2513 295 32 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 527446 7217410 732143 267 161284285568 123273 4114 260 62 — — — — — —
202620 A RAW2 teams — 527413 9022513 1061593 267 218381390771 172313 3020 351 62 — — — — — —
202519 A MLE2 teams — 359320 491014 321244 226 153239228467 75226 359 216 32 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 527446 7217410 732143 267 161284285568 123266 4114 260 62 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202519 A MLE2 teams — 359320 491014 321244 226 153239228467 75226 359 216 32 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 527446 7217410 732143 267 161284285568 123266 4114 260 62 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLEWSH 0% 637550 9120411 782594 185 165273275548 110280 4112 255 59 -31 +2 -4 +7 +14 -0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLEWSH 34% 502432 7616311 611984 154 174281300581 126282 3912 268 67 -19 +1 -2 +5 +11 -0.4
202923 MLB MLEWSH 48% 537463 8417314 652054 164 182288321608 138284 3812 278 74 -16 +2 -2 +6 +12 0.1
203024 MLB MLEWSH 53% 560484 9018315 672084 164 188292335627 147286 3712 285 79 -14 +2 -1 +6 +12 0.5
203125 MLB MLEWSH 55% 578500 9619317 692104 164 193295344640 152286 3612 290 82 -12 +2 -1 +6 +13 0.7
203226 MLB MLEWSH 56% 590512 9920317 692114 174 196297350647 154287 3612 293 84 -11 +2 -1 +6 +13 0.9
203327 MLB MLEWSH 55% 590512 9920317 692114 164 195296348644 153286 3612 291 83 -12 +2 -1 +6 +13 0.8
203428 MLB MLEWSH 59% 582505 9719317 682104 154 193294343637 150285 3612 289 82 -13 +1 -2 +6 +13 0.6
203529 MLB MLEWSH 61% 565490 9419316 662054 134 191291337628 146284 3612 285 79 -14 +1 -2 +6 +12 0.3
203630 MLB MLEWSH 62% 552479 9118315 642024 114 188288329618 142282 3712 281 76 -16 +1 -3 +6 +12 -0.0
203731 MLB MLEWSH 63% 534464 8617314 621983 94 184284320604 136278 3712 275 73 -17 +0 -4 +6 +12 -0.4
202822 MLB CTXWSH 34% 172148 27614 21681 51 174281297578 124281 4012 267 67 -7 +1 -1 +2 +4 -0.1
202923 MLB CTXWSH 48% 260225 41917 31992 82 181287318605 137283 3812 277 74 -8 +1 -1 +3 +6 0.0
203024 MLB CTXWSH 53% 295256 471018 351102 92 188292333624 145285 3712 284 79 -7 +1 -0 +3 +6 0.3
203125 MLB CTXWSH 55% 316274 531129 371152 92 192295342637 150285 3612 289 82 -7 +1 -0 +3 +7 0.4
203226 MLB CTXWSH 56% 328285 5611210 381172 92 195297348645 153286 3612 292 84 -6 +1 -0 +4 +7 0.5
203327 MLB CTXWSH 55% 325282 5611210 381162 92 194296345641 151285 3612 290 83 -6 +1 -0 +3 +7 0.5
203428 MLB CTXWSH 59% 342297 5812210 401232 92 192294341635 149284 3612 288 82 -8 +1 -1 +4 +7 0.4
203529 MLB CTXWSH 61% 343298 5711210 401252 82 190291335626 145283 3612 284 79 -8 +1 -1 +4 +7 0.2
203630 MLB CTXWSH 62% 343298 551119 401262 72 187288328615 140281 3712 280 76 -10 +1 -2 +4 +7 0.0
203731 MLB CTXWSH 63% 337293 541119 391252 62 183283318602 135278 3712 275 73 -11 +0 -2 +4 +7 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 30612656 5041031586 359112419 7919 190291337628 147286 3712 284 74 -78 +8 -10 +33 +66 2.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650564 10722318 762394 174 190290335625 145286 3712 284 74 -17 +2 -2 +7 +14 0.4
Career— MLE — 66865788 106421736171 791248147 19855 184287322609 139281 3712 277 74 -155 +13 -19 +62 +126 2.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650563 10321317 772415 195 183287321609 139278 3712 277 74 -17 +1 -2 +7 +14 0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 431 PAwOBA .374 → .286 (−88)K% 27.1% → 36.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.15%÷1.000×1.360——36.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA21.11%÷1.000×0.690—×1.01514.79%
HBP% /PA0.70%—×0.780—×1.0150.55%
Singles /BIP19.53%÷1.000×0.920×0.950×1.01517.33%
Doubles /BIP8.84%÷1.000×0.830×0.950×1.0157.07%
Triples /BIP2.33%÷1.000×0.910×0.950×1.0152.04%
Home runs /BIP6.05%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0154.91%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .374 → .286; ISO .205 → .160; BABIP .319 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 96 PAwOBA .220 → .145 (−75)K% 43.8% → 57.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA43.75%÷1.000×1.310——57.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.62%÷1.000×0.600—×1.0279.63%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.770—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP20.51%÷1.000×0.870—×1.02718.33%
Doubles /BIP7.69%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0276.16%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850—×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.880—×1.0270.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .220 → .145; ISO .037 → .024; BABIP .282 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 333 PAwOBA .286 → .213 (−73)K% 25.2% → 35.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.23%÷0.968×1.360——35.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.31%÷0.987×0.690—×1.0308.86%
HBP% /PA1.20%—×0.780—×1.0300.97%
Singles /BIP18.41%÷1.046×0.920×0.962×1.03016.06%
Doubles /BIP6.97%÷1.050×0.830×0.962×1.0305.46%
Triples /BIP1.00%÷1.106×0.910×0.962×1.0300.81%
Home runs /BIP2.49%÷1.040×0.800—×1.0301.97%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 109, 2B 110, 3B 121, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .286 → .213; ISO .116 → .083; BABIP .266 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Nationals · 26 PAwOBA .352 → .253 (−99)K% 15.4% → 22.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.38%÷0.995×1.440——22.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.38%÷1.012×0.620—×0.9959.37%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Singles /BIP27.78%÷0.946×0.820—×0.99523.96%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.138×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.929×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP5.56%÷1.328×0.780—×0.9953.25%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 166, 1B 89, 2B 128, 3B 86, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .352 → .253; ISO .136 → .079; BABIP .294 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).