Luke Dickerson — OGILVIE

Luke DickersonSS Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 197 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION365 act + 243 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .286 / .320

PA243

HR5

SB8

K%36

BB%11

BABIP288

ISO132

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 53

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER53

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED66

scouting grade only

DEFENSE48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$9M	+$8M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.7	$10M	+$9M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.8	$10M	+$7M
2032	Arb-2	$7M	+1.9	$10M	+$6M
2033	Arb-3	$10M	+1.9	$9M	+$4M
Totals		$23M		$51M	+$38M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	19	A	2 teams	—	359	323	45	9	1	4	29	133	4	22	6	139	219	211	430	71	217	37	8	199	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	2 teams	—	359	307	64	14	2	6	45	88	4	22	6	208	317	326	643	117	269	25	13	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A	WSH	—	365	311	55	13	3	9	46	142	3	14	5	177	289	325	614	148	279	39	13	272	66	-14	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.1
YTD	20	A	WSH	—	365	284	67	18	4	10	73	100	3	14	5	236	397	433	830	197	318	27	20	370	142	+17	+1	+0	+4	+10	3.3
ROS	20	A	WSH	0%	243	212	40	9	2	5	27	87	2	8	3	188	286	320	606	132	277	36	11	270	65	-10	+0	-1	+3	+7	-0.1
ROS	20	MLB	WSH	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		277	—	—	264	60	—	—	-0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	A	WSH	—	365	312	55	13	3	9	46	142	3	14	5	176	289	324	613	147	277	39	13	272	66	-14	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.1
TOT	20	A	WSH	—	608	523	95	22	5	14	73	229	5	22	8	182	288	323	611	141	283	38	12	271	66	-23	+1	-1	+7	+17	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	WSH	34%	581	507	98	22	4	13	64	200	5	15	5	193	290	329	619	136	282	34	11	281	73	-18	+1	-3	+6	+16	0.3
2028	22	MLB	WSH	48%	609	531	107	23	4	16	67	203	6	16	5	202	298	350	648	149	284	33	11	292	81	-13	+1	-3	+7	+17	0.9
2029	23	MLB	WSH	54%	627	547	113	24	4	18	69	203	6	17	5	207	302	364	666	157	286	32	11	300	87	-9	+1	-3	+7	+18	1.4
2030	24	MLB	WSH	55%	638	557	117	24	4	20	70	204	6	18	6	210	305	375	680	165	287	32	11	305	91	-6	+1	-3	+7	+18	1.7
2031	25	MLB	WSH	56%	637	555	117	24	4	20	71	203	6	18	6	211	307	377	684	166	287	32	11	307	93	-5	+1	-3	+7	+18	1.8
2032	26	MLB	WSH	56%	629	548	117	24	4	21	70	200	6	18	6	214	309	387	696	173	287	32	11	309	94	-4	+1	-3	+7	+18	1.9
2033	27	MLB	WSH	55%	619	538	114	24	4	20	70	197	6	17	5	212	309	383	692	171	287	32	11	309	95	-4	+1	-3	+7	+18	1.9
2034	28	MLB	WSH	55%	609	529	112	23	4	20	69	195	6	17	5	212	310	384	693	172	287	32	11	308	94	-4	+1	-4	+7	+17	1.7
2035	29	MLB	WSH	53%	598	519	107	22	3	19	68	193	6	16	5	206	305	370	675	164	286	32	11	306	93	-5	+1	-5	+6	+17	1.5
2036	30	MLB	WSH	53%	587	510	105	22	3	18	67	191	5	15	5	206	304	367	671	161	285	33	11	304	91	-6	+1	-5	+6	+17	1.3
2037	31	MLB	WSH	52%	576	500	102	21	3	18	66	189	5	14	4	204	303	366	669	162	283	33	11	300	88	-8	+1	-6	+6	+16	1.0
2038	32	MLB	WSH	52%	564	490	98	20	3	17	64	187	5	13	4	200	299	357	656	157	279	33	11	295	84	-10	+1	-7	+6	+16	0.6
2039	33	MLB	WSH	52%	510	443	86	17	3	14	58	172	4	11	3	194	293	341	634	147	275	34	11	288	79	-12	+1	-7	+5	+14	0.2
2040	34	MLB	WSH	47%	463	404	75	15	2	12	52	159	4	9	3	186	285	322	607	136	269	34	11	280	72	-14	+1	-7	+5	+13	-0.3
2041	35	MLB	WSH	43%	407	356	64	12	2	10	45	143	3	8	2	180	277	309	586	129	262	35	11	270	65	-16	+1	-8	+4	+12	-0.7
2027	21	MLB	WSH	34%	200	174	33	7	1	5	22	69	2	5	2	190	288	328	615	138	282	34	11	274	68	-7	+0	-1	+2	+6	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	WSH	48%	295	257	52	11	2	8	33	98	3	8	2	202	300	354	654	152	284	33	11	285	76	-8	+1	-2	+3	+8	0.3
2029	23	MLB	WSH	54%	340	297	61	13	2	10	37	110	3	9	3	205	300	364	663	158	286	32	11	293	82	-7	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.5
2030	24	MLB	WSH	55%	354	309	65	14	2	11	39	113	3	10	3	210	305	375	680	165	287	32	11	298	86	-6	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.7
2031	25	MLB	WSH	56%	357	311	65	14	2	11	40	114	3	10	3	209	305	373	678	164	287	32	11	300	88	-5	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.8
2032	26	MLB	WSH	56%	354	309	66	14	2	12	39	113	3	10	3	214	308	388	696	175	287	32	11	302	89	-4	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.9
2033	27	MLB	WSH	55%	342	298	63	13	2	11	38	109	3	10	3	211	307	379	686	168	287	32	11	302	89	-4	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.8
2034	28	MLB	WSH	55%	334	290	62	13	2	11	38	107	3	9	3	214	311	386	697	172	287	32	11	301	89	-4	+1	-2	+4	+9	0.7
2035	29	MLB	WSH	53%	319	277	58	12	2	10	36	103	3	8	3	209	307	375	682	166	286	32	11	299	87	-5	+0	-2	+3	+9	0.6
2036	30	MLB	WSH	53%	309	268	56	11	2	10	35	100	3	8	2	209	307	377	684	168	285	32	11	297	85	-5	+1	-3	+3	+9	0.5
2037	31	MLB	WSH	52%	300	260	53	11	2	9	34	98	3	7	2	204	303	365	668	162	283	33	11	293	83	-6	+1	-3	+3	+8	0.3
2038	32	MLB	WSH	52%	292	254	51	10	2	9	33	97	3	7	2	201	300	362	662	161	279	33	11	288	79	-7	+1	-3	+3	+8	0.2
2039	33	MLB	WSH	52%	264	230	44	9	1	7	30	89	2	6	2	191	290	330	621	139	275	34	11	282	74	-8	+0	-4	+3	+7	-0.1
2040	34	MLB	WSH	47%	219	190	36	7	1	6	25	75	2	4	1	189	290	332	622	142	269	34	11	274	68	-8	+0	-3	+2	+6	-0.3
2041	35	MLB	WSH	43%	174	152	27	5	1	4	19	61	1	3	1	178	273	303	576	125	262	35	11	265	61	-8	+0	-3	+2	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4453	3877	792	164	26	134	498	1456	40	114	35	204	301	364	665	159	285	33	11	292	82	-91	+9	-36	+48	+126	5.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	116	24	4	20	73	213	6	17	5	205	303	367	670	163	285	33	11	292	82	-13	+1	-5	+7	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	9256	8069	1617	335	54	265	1026	3059	85	252	78	200	297	354	651	153	282	33	11	293	83	-180	+19	-73	+99	+262	13.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	567	115	24	4	19	72	215	6	18	5	203	299	360	659	157	286	33	11	293	83	-13	+2	-5	+7	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	19	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	333	285	58	14	2	5	41	84	4	21	5	204	312	319	631	116	266	25	12	290	80	-7	+2	—	—	+9	0.4
2025	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	26	22	6	0	0	1	4	4	0	1	1	273	385	409	794	136	294	15	15	361	135	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	10	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
	/162	664	27	11	230	288	422	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#3Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,772	139	122	204	297	360	+48	-6	10.8	9.4
	/162	664	19	17	204	297	360	+6.7	-0.9	1.5	pk7: 8
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Dickerson (OGILVIE)	20	37→45	48→53	67→66	50	182/288/323	141	283	14	22	38%	12%	66	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	40→50	57→55	42	201/257/293	92	281	6	22	30%	7%	50	-1.8	232/286/367	135	290	12	21	23%	7%	82	+0.5	254/312/374	120	299	11	11	18%	7%	92	+1.0
✕Jake Marisnick 2011 · A	20	41→51	41→60	55	40	201/260/303	102	269	7	18	27%	5%	54	-1.4	229/284/355	126	294	11	19	25%	5%	78	+0.2	226/290/423	196	302	25	18	33%	6%	96	+0.7
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2022 · A	21	42→48	47→55	59→55	38	216/258/360	144	272	14	15	26%	4%	68	-0.5	239/275/399	160	304	18	22	27%	4%	85	+0.7	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
✕Sean Henry 2006 · A	20	42→52	43→50	55	42	204/270/313	108	299	11	15	34%	8%	61	-1.0	227/282/354	127	289	11	19	24%	6%	76	+0.1	248/301/378	130	297	12	17	20%	6%	88	+0.7
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	45→42	42→50	56→50	40	218/268/331	113	302	8	15	30%	6%	64	-0.8	215/273/337	122	287	11	12	27%	6%	68	-0.5	225/274/377	152	279	18	13	26%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Johan Mieses 2015 · A	20	43→33	42→55	60→50	42	208/261/317	109	274	8	22	26%	6%	57	-1.2	191/237/342	151	271	18	8	36%	5%	55	-1.4	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→46	41→45	56→55	43	214/285/313	99	288	7	14	27%	7%	68	-0.5	203/314/320	117	299	9	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	201/310/335	134	289	10	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	38→43	46→55	53→50	45	188/278/321	133	289	14	16	37%	10%	68	-0.5	217/294/348	131	331	14	16	35%	9%	81	+0.4	229/308/399	169	310	21	18	31%	9%	95	+0.9
●Akil Baddoo 2019 · A	20	42→52	42→55	56→55	46	201/275/316	115	288	8	13	31%	9%	63	-0.8	212/280/338	126	319	10	16	34%	8%	72	-0.2	240/322/392	152	311	15	24	26%	11%	100	+1.2
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	40→50	40→45	55	44	196/264/288	92	278	8	16	31%	8%	52	-1.6	236/297/340	104	317	6	24	26%	7%	79	+0.3	259/316/359	100	331	7	29	22%	7%	87	+0.7
●Trevor Story 2013 · A	20	40→49	44→60	53→55	41	200/261/322	123	284	11	10	32%	7%	59	-1.1	191/252/329	138	303	14	15	39%	7%	58	-1.2	247/315/451	204	301	24	25	26%	8%	113	+2.3
✕Sam McWilliams 2019 · A	21	46→53	39→50	54→50	43	214/280/307	92	310	5	15	31%	7%	63	-0.8	213/273/318	105	329	8	9	35%	7%	63	-0.8	240/305/391	151	378	16	10	38%	8%	93	+0.9
●Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→50	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	55	-1.4	199/251/270	71	293	3	25	31%	6%	40	-2.4	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→49	39→45	60→55	46	193/267/285	92	274	5	17	29%	8%	53	-1.5	216/290/303	87	291	6	17	26%	9%	67	-0.5	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Samad Taylor 2019 · A	21	38→48	41→50	54→65	45	186/250/288	102	245	7	22	27%	7%	46	-2.0	187/263/301	114	290	10	25	36%	8%	56	-1.3	239/314/383	144	329	16	46	30%	9%	96	+0.9
✕Taylor Trammell 2018 · A	20	45→46	40→55	56→55	42	213/270/311	98	303	7	21	31%	7%	59	-1.1	202/274/288	86	297	7	18	32%	8%	56	-1.3	211/296/388	177	282	22	17	32%	10%	91	+0.7
●Jarred Kelenic 2019 · A	20	45→55	43→60	57→50	42	218/277/333	115	296	10	13	29%	7%	69	-0.4	234/291/434	200	292	25	13	28%	7%	102	+1.9	227/288/440	213	276	26	14	28%	7%	100	+1.5
✕Luisangel Acuña 2022 · A	20	45→55	43→45	55→60	43	221/278/324	104	297	11	25	29%	7%	66	-0.6	237/288/345	108	317	11	34	27%	7%	76	+0.0	243/290/348	105	312	10	39	24%	6%	74	-0.1
✕Tyler Goeddel 2014 · A	21	42→50	40→45	59→55	39	204/254/302	98	293	6	20	31%	6%	50	-1.7	223/280/337	114	302	9	18	28%	6%	71	-0.3	225/287/343	117	297	10	18	26%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→45	45→55	51→55	44	215/274/342	127	287	12	11	29%	7%	70	-0.3	231/293/393	162	278	19	13	24%	7%	92	+1.2	232/295/411	179	268	22	16	22%	7%	94	+1.3