Luke Dickerson — OGILVIE

Luke DickersonSS Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 197 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION527 act + 8 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.143 / .250 / .143

PA8

HR0

K%38

BB%12

BABIP274

ISO112

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 53

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER53

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED66

scouting grade only

DEFENSE48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$8M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$9M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	333	285	58	14	2	5	41	84	4	21	5	204	312	319	631	116	266	25	12	290	83	-7	+2	—	—	+7	0.3
2025	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	26	22	6	0	0	1	4	4	0	1	1	273	385	409	794	136	294	15	15	361	131	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	333	300	44	10	1	4	26	123	4	21	5	147	224	227	451	80	220	37	8	204	24	-30	+2	—	—	+7	-2.1
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	26	24	5	0	0	1	2	6	0	1	1	208	269	333	603	125	249	23	8	254	58	-1	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	359	323	48	10	1	4	29	129	4	22	6	149	228	223	450	74	228	36	8	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	359	307	64	14	2	6	45	88	4	22	6	208	317	326	643	117	269	25	13	295	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	359	323	48	10	1	4	29	129	4	22	6	149	228	223	450	74	222	36	8	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	359	323	48	10	1	4	29	129	4	22	6	149	228	223	450	74	222	36	8	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A MLE	WSH	—	527	452	72	16	4	11	67	222	3	26	7	159	272	285	557	126	272	42	13	255	59	-26	+2	+0	+6	+11	-0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A RAW	WSH	—	431	332	79	19	5	13	91	117	3	19	7	238	406	443	849	205	319	27	21	379	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A+ RAW	WSH	—	96	81	11	3	0	0	15	42	0	7	0	136	271	173	444	37	282	44	16	225	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	A MLE	WSH	0%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		276	38	12	257	60	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	20	A MLE	WSH	—	535	459	73	16	4	11	68	225	3	26	7	159	272	283	555	124	272	42	13	255	59	-26	+2	-0	+6	+12	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	470	409	73	15	3	12	55	180	3	13	4	178	281	318	598	139	281	38	12	275	72	-16	+1	-3	+5	+10	-0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	WSH	48%	528	458	87	18	3	15	61	193	4	15	4	190	291	341	631	151	283	37	12	287	81	-12	+1	-3	+6	+11	0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	564	489	96	19	3	18	65	200	5	16	4	196	297	358	655	162	284	35	12	295	86	-9	+2	-3	+6	+12	0.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	638	554	111	22	4	21	74	223	5	18	5	200	300	368	668	168	285	35	12	300	89	-8	+2	-3	+7	+14	1.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	WSH	56%	637	553	112	22	4	22	74	222	5	18	5	203	302	376	678	174	286	35	12	302	91	-7	+2	-3	+7	+14	1.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	WSH	56%	629	546	110	22	4	21	73	219	5	18	5	201	301	372	673	170	285	35	12	303	91	-6	+2	-3	+7	+14	1.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	619	536	108	21	4	21	73	216	5	18	5	201	303	373	676	172	285	35	12	303	91	-6	+2	-3	+7	+13	1.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	609	527	105	21	3	21	72	213	5	17	5	199	301	370	671	171	285	35	12	303	91	-7	+1	-4	+7	+13	1.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	598	517	102	20	3	20	71	211	5	16	4	197	300	364	664	166	284	35	12	301	90	-7	+2	-5	+6	+13	0.9
2036	30	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	573	494	97	19	3	19	69	203	5	14	4	196	301	362	663	166	283	35	12	298	88	-8	+1	-5	+6	+12	0.7
2037	31	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	558	482	93	18	3	18	67	200	4	13	4	193	297	355	651	162	280	36	12	295	85	-10	+1	-6	+6	+12	0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	539	466	89	17	3	17	64	195	4	12	3	191	294	350	644	159	277	36	12	289	82	-12	+1	-6	+6	+12	0.1
2039	33	MLB MLE	WSH	58%	510	440	81	15	3	15	61	187	4	10	3	184	289	334	623	150	273	37	12	283	78	-14	+1	-7	+5	+11	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	161	140	25	5	1	4	19	62	1	5	1	179	281	314	596	136	278	39	12	268	72	-5	+1	-1	+2	+3	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	WSH	48%	256	222	42	9	1	7	30	94	2	7	2	189	291	333	625	144	281	37	12	280	81	-6	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	306	266	53	11	2	10	35	109	2	9	2	199	297	368	665	169	282	36	11	288	86	-5	+1	-2	+3	+7	0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	354	307	62	12	2	12	41	124	3	10	3	202	302	371	673	169	283	35	12	292	89	-5	+1	-2	+4	+8	0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	WSH	56%	357	310	62	12	2	12	41	124	3	10	3	200	299	368	667	168	283	35	11	295	91	-4	+1	-2	+4	+8	0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	WSH	56%	354	307	61	12	2	12	41	123	3	10	3	199	299	368	667	169	283	35	12	295	91	-4	+1	-2	+4	+8	0.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	342	296	60	12	2	12	40	119	3	10	3	203	304	378	682	176	283	35	12	296	91	-3	+1	-2	+4	+7	0.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	334	288	57	11	2	11	40	117	3	9	2	198	302	365	667	167	283	35	12	295	91	-4	+1	-2	+4	+7	0.6
2035	29	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	319	275	55	11	1	11	38	112	3	8	2	200	304	367	671	167	282	35	12	293	90	-4	+1	-2	+3	+7	0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	301	260	51	10	1	10	36	107	2	8	2	196	299	358	656	162	281	36	12	291	88	-4	+1	-3	+3	+7	0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	315	272	52	10	1	10	38	113	2	7	2	191	295	346	640	154	279	36	12	287	85	-5	+1	-3	+3	+7	0.2
2038	32	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	293	254	47	9	1	9	35	106	2	6	2	185	289	335	623	150	275	36	12	282	82	-6	+0	-3	+3	+6	0.0
2039	33	MLB CTX	WSH	58%	294	255	47	9	1	9	35	108	2	6	2	184	288	333	621	149	271	37	12	276	78	-8	+0	-4	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3986	3452	674	133	19	129	469	1418	31	105	29	195	297	357	654	162	283	36	12	289	84	-63	+9	-30	+43	+86	4.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	563	110	22	3	21	76	231	5	17	5	195	297	357	654	162	283	36	12	289	84	-10	+2	-5	+7	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	7839	6801	1313	259	44	244	909	2794	63	220	61	193	294	352	646	159	281	36	12	292	84	-122	+18	-55	+80	+162	8.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	564	109	21	4	20	75	232	5	18	5	193	293	351	644	158	283	36	12	292	84	-11	+2	-5	+7	+14	0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	6.7	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
/162	664	27	11	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#3Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	6.5	4,308	135	114	195	293	356	+46	-5	9.5	8.3
/162	664	21	18	+7.1	-0.8	1.5	pk7: 7
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Dickerson (OGILVIE)	20	37→45	48→53	67→66	50	164/268/283	118	276	6	13	41%	12%	60	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	39→50	57→55	42	201/259/292	90	285	6	22	30%	7%	56	-1.9	230/286/359	129	289	11	21	23%	7%	82	-0.0	252/312/373	121	300	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Sean Henry 2006 · A	20	42→52	43→50	55	42	204/270/313	108	299	11	15	34%	8%	65	-1.2	227/282/353	126	289	11	19	24%	6%	78	-0.3	248/301/372	124	296	11	17	19%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	38→41	47→50	53→55	46	189/281/323	135	287	14	16	37%	10%	73	-0.6	211/290/332	121	325	11	16	35%	9%	78	-0.3	220/298/374	155	300	18	18	31%	9%	87	+0.3
●Lewis Brinson 2013 · A	19	41→51	44→55	56→50	34	198/246/326	128	318	10	12	39%	5%	59	-1.6	203/257/337	134	336	15	13	41%	6%	66	-1.1	239/290/412	173	299	19	17	26%	6%	93	+0.6
✕Thomas Saggese 2022 · A	20	43→53	47→50	51→50	42	205/281/343	138	324	14	12	39%	9%	77	-0.3	232/283/377	145	316	15	10	30%	6%	84	+0.2	235/288/363	129	315	14	8	29%	5%	82	-0.0
✕Kyren Paris 2022 · A	20	47	42→45	60	42	207/289/323	116	361	8	24	41%	9%	75	-0.5	195/280/315	120	315	12	29	38%	9%	70	-0.8	180/273/303	123	282	14	35	38%	10%	63	-0.9
✕Max Muncy 2023 · A	20	38→46	48→55	50	40	190/265/329	140	297	16	12	39%	8%	68	-1.0	213/277/339	126	322	13	9	36%	7%	74	-0.5	226/292/386	160	309	20	5	32%	6%	89	+0.3
✕Keon Broxton 2011 · A	21	37→47	41→55	54→60	35	178/232/287	109	302	7	10	41%	6%	45	-2.7	196/253/296	100	314	9	15	38%	7%	55	-2.0	224/300/388	164	339	17	38	36%	9%	92	+0.6
✕Tyler Goeddel 2013 · A	20	44→51	40→45	55	41	205/271/297	92	312	7	21	34%	7%	62	-1.4	219/273/327	108	304	7	19	29%	6%	69	-0.9	227/288/340	113	297	9	18	25%	7%	75	-0.3
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A	20	42	40→45	54→60	47	195/295/296	102	308	7	8	35%	10%	72	-0.7	202/299/283	81	274	6	17	26%	10%	71	-0.8	180/307/230	50	224	5	30	19%	12%	61	-0.5
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2022 · A	21	42→52	46→55	59→55	39	213/256/347	134	267	12	15	26%	4%	68	-1.0	239/275/393	154	305	16	22	27%	4%	85	+0.2	253/291/409	156	303	17	19	22%	4%	93	+0.8
✕Ricardo Olivar 2022 · A	20	44→52	40→45	53→50	40	201/273/293	92	330	6	9	38%	8%	62	-1.4	227/305/350	123	326	10	8	31%	8%	87	+0.4	226/311/352	126	315	11	8	29%	9%	88	+0.2
✕Jasson Domínguez 2023 · AA	20	44→53	45→50	56→60	43	209/284/338	129	316	12	20	36%	9%	76	-0.4	235/307/369	134	322	15	28	29%	9%	92	+0.7	243/318/375	132	322	15	33	28%	10%	94	+0.7
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	40→50	40→45	55	44	197/265/289	92	278	8	16	30%	8%	58	-1.7	238/299/342	104	319	7	24	25%	8%	82	+0.0	258/316/357	98	327	7	29	22%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Narciso Crook 2015 · A	20	41→43	42→50	55→50	35	200/245/302	103	313	9	14	38%	5%	53	-2.1	189/227/291	102	289	9	10	36%	4%	43	-2.8	206/268/351	145	302	15	14	35%	6%	70	-0.6
✕Jorge Mateo 2015 · A	20	43→48	41→50	60→65	44	207/270/305	98	282	7	30	28%	7%	63	-1.4	210/256/311	101	298	6	37	30%	5%	59	-1.7	213/255/343	130	274	13	52	27%	5%	65	-0.4
●Esteury Ruiz 2019 · A	20	43→53	42→50	59→70	35	205/253/317	112	311	9	26	36%	5%	59	-1.6	202/253/311	109	300	10	30	34%	5%	59	-1.7	264/338/395	131	327	12	74	22%	6%	107	+1.2
✕Taylor Trammell 2018 · A	20	45→46	41→55	57→55	43	217/275/321	104	306	8	21	30%	7%	69	-0.9	208/280/300	92	300	8	18	31%	9%	66	-1.1	203/297/373	170	273	21	23	32%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Akil Baddoo 2019 · A	20	42→52	43→50	56→55	47	203/279/323	120	288	8	13	30%	9%	71	-0.8	213/282/343	130	314	11	16	33%	9%	76	-0.4	236/319/383	147	308	15	24	26%	11%	96	+0.7
✕Sam McWilliams 2019 · A	21	46→52	39→50	54→50	43	214/280/307	92	310	5	15	31%	7%	68	-1.0	212/272/316	104	331	8	9	36%	7%	66	-1.1	238/303/391	153	379	16	10	38%	8%	93	+0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps