Luke Dickerson — OGILVIE

Luke DickersonSS Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 197 lbs A HR -9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.3 · 2032

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .276 / .332

PA320

HR8

SB9

K%32

BB%8

MLB%4%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

30↗44

PWR

45↗53

SPD

70↘66

FLD

30↗48

EYE

48↗50

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.8peak

2032

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.0	$18M	+$17M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.2	$20M	+$20M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.3	$22M	+$21M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.3	$23M	+$18M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+2.1	$21M	+$14M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+2.0	$21M	+$10M
Totals		$26M		$125M	+$99M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	19	A	2 teams	359	324	48	10	1	4	28	128	4	22	6	.148	.225	.222	.447	.074	.226	36	8	.208	18	-33	+2	+0	+4	+10	-1.8
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	20	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	78	71	15	7	1	2	6	33	0	3	2	.211	.273	.423	.695	.211	.351	42	8	.284	76	-2	-0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
ROS	20	MLB	WSH	242	219	45	10	2	6	19	82	2	6	2	.205	.275	.352	.627	.146	.293	34	8	.278	71	-8	+0	-2	+3	+7	-0.0
TOT	20	MLB	WSH	320	290	60	17	3	8	25	115	2	9	4	.207	.274	.369	.643	.162	.308	36	8	.279	72	-10	+0	-2	+3	+9	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	21	MLB 14%	WSH	416	373	80	17	3	11	36	121	4	12	4	.214	.291	.365	.655	.150	.281	29	9	.291	81	-9	+1	-3	+4	+12	0.5
2028	22	MLB 31%	WSH	491	439	96	20	4	14	44	138	5	15	5	.219	.297	.378	.675	.159	.283	28	9	.302	89	-6	+1	-4	+5	+14	1.0
2029	23	MLB 51%	WSH	539	479	108	22	4	17	50	148	5	16	5	.225	.305	.395	.700	.169	.284	27	9	.311	96	-2	+1	-4	+6	+15	1.6
2030	24	MLB 70%	WSH	569	504	115	23	4	19	54	154	6	17	5	.228	.310	.403	.713	.175	.285	27	9	.316	100	+0	+1	-5	+6	+16	2.0
2031	25	MLB 86%	WSH	587	519	119	24	4	20	57	158	6	17	5	.229	.313	.407	.719	.177	.286	27	10	.320	103	+2	+1	-5	+6	+17	2.2
2032	26	MLB	WSH	595	525	121	24	4	21	59	160	6	17	5	.230	.315	.411	.727	.181	.286	27	10	.321	104	+3	+1	-5	+6	+17	2.3
2033	27	MLB	WSH	596	525	121	24	4	21	60	161	6	17	5	.230	.316	.411	.728	.181	.286	27	10	.321	104	+3	+1	-5	+6	+17	2.3
2034	28	MLB	WSH	592	521	119	24	4	20	60	161	6	16	5	.228	.315	.405	.720	.177	.286	27	10	.320	103	+2	+1	-6	+6	+17	2.1
2035	29	MLB	WSH	582	512	116	23	4	20	59	160	6	16	4	.227	.314	.404	.718	.178	.285	27	10	.318	102	+1	+2	-6	+6	+16	2.0
2036	30	MLB	WSH	571	502	113	23	4	19	58	158	6	15	4	.225	.313	.400	.713	.175	.284	28	10	.315	99	-0	+1	-7	+6	+16	1.7
2037	31	MLB	WSH	557	491	109	22	4	18	56	157	5	14	3	.222	.308	.393	.701	.171	.282	28	10	.311	96	-2	+2	-7	+6	+16	1.4
2038	32	MLB	WSH	539	475	104	21	4	17	54	155	5	13	3	.219	.305	.387	.693	.168	.280	29	10	.307	93	-4	+1	-8	+6	+15	1.0
2039	33	MLB	WSH	509	448	95	19	3	15	51	150	5	12	2	.212	.300	.368	.668	.156	.279	29	10	.301	88	-7	+2	-8	+5	+14	0.7
2040	34	MLB	WSH	463	410	85	17	3	13	46	140	4	11	2	.207	.293	.359	.652	.151	.277	30	10	.294	83	-9	+1	-9	+5	+13	0.2
2041	35	MLB	WSH	407	361	73	14	3	11	40	127	3	10	1	.202	.287	.349	.636	.147	.274	31	10	.286	77	-10	+2	-9	+4	+12	-0.2
2042	36	MLB	WSH	347	307	60	11	2	9	34	112	3	9	1	.195	.282	.332	.614	.137	.271	32	10	.277	70	-12	+1	-9	+4	+10	-0.6
2043	37	MLB	WSH	282	251	47	9	2	6	27	94	2	7	1	.187	.271	.311	.582	.124	.266	33	10	.267	62	-12	+1	-9	+3	+8	-0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			9243	8185	1774	357	63	281	892	2664	89	262	68	.217	.301	.379	.679	.162	.282	29	10	.303	90	-104	+25	-111	+99	+262	17.5
/ 162G	—			650	576	124	25	4	20	63	187	6	18	5	.215	.299	.377	.676	.161	.280	29	10	.303	90	-7	+2	-8	+7	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	19	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	333	285	58	14	2	5	41	84	4	21	5	.204	.312	.319	.631	.116	.266	25	12	.290	80	-7	+2	—	—	+9	0.4
2025	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	26	22	6	0	0	1	4	4	0	1	1	.273	.385	.409	.794	.136	.294	15	15	.361	135	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Dickerson (OGILVIE)	20	30→44	45→53	70→66	50	.204/.276/.332	.128	.287	8	8	32%	8%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2022 · A	21	42→50	47→55	58→55	39	.214/.256/.353	.139	.265	14	15	25%	4%	65	-0.7	.239/.275/.401	.162	.303	18	22	27%	4%	85	+0.7	.244/.283/.399	.155	.300	17	24	24%	4%	86	+0.7
●Addison Russell 2014 · A	20	48→52	49→55	58→50	45	.235/.304/.393	.158	.314	14	16	29%	8%	96	+1.5	.241/.304/.403	.162	.308	17	10	26%	7%	98	+1.6	.241/.312/.408	.167	.299	18	5	25%	8%	96	+1.3
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	38→41	46→50	53→55	45	.189/.278/.319	.129	.289	14	15	37%	10%	67	-0.5	.210/.289/.331	.121	.326	12	16	36%	9%	74	-0.1	.216/.296/.349	.133	.314	15	19	33%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Jake Marisnick 2011 · A	20	43→53	41→60	55	41	.206/.266/.309	.103	.273	7	18	26%	6%	59	-1.1	.234/.289/.359	.125	.298	11	19	24%	5%	81	+0.4	.232/.296/.435	.203	.309	26	18	33%	6%	101	+0.9
●Trevor Story 2013 · A	20	40→50	46→65	53→55	41	.204/.264/.340	.136	.276	13	11	30%	7%	66	-0.6	.192/.252/.330	.138	.298	14	15	38%	7%	58	-1.2	.270/.336/.500	.231	.327	29	25	26%	8%	134	+3.6
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	41→51	40→50	56→55	42	.202/.257/.295	.093	.281	7	21	30%	7%	50	-1.7	.228/.284/.359	.131	.288	12	22	24%	7%	78	+0.2	.239/.295/.382	.143	.285	14	19	21%	7%	86	+0.8
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45	41→55	55	43	.216/.285/.315	.099	.290	7	13	27%	7%	68	-0.5	.204/.313/.323	.119	.295	10	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	.202/.308/.336	.135	.284	11	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
✕Sean Henry 2006 · A	20	42→52	43→50	55	42	.206/.271/.314	.108	.302	10	15	34%	8%	62	-0.9	.225/.279/.352	.127	.288	12	19	25%	6%	75	-0.0	.247/.300/.379	.132	.296	12	17	20%	6%	87	+0.7
●Jo Adell 2019 · AA	20	46→44	51→65	54→50	37	.230/.278/.398	.168	.315	18	12	32%	5%	86	+0.8	.220/.270/.377	.157	.318	18	10	35%	5%	78	+0.2	.218/.285/.446	.228	.252	34	12	29%	7%	101	+1.4
●Royce Lewis 2019 · A	20	48→49	43→60	53→50	45	.233/.286/.344	.111	.281	10	17	21%	6%	76	+0.0	.207/.254/.310	.103	.281	9	15	28%	5%	53	-1.5	.261/.323/.483	.222	.300	31	14	24%	8%	123	+1.6
●Esteury Ruiz 2019 · A	20	44→54	43→50	58→70	37	.212/.260/.329	.117	.307	9	25	33%	5%	60	-1.0	.203/.254/.314	.111	.301	11	30	34%	5%	54	-1.4	.264/.338/.396	.132	.327	13	74	22%	6%	108	+1.6
✕Akil Baddoo 2019 · A	20	42→51	43→55	56→55	48	.206/.282/.325	.120	.283	9	13	29%	9%	69	-0.4	.212/.283/.340	.128	.306	11	16	32%	9%	73	-0.1	.232/.314/.375	.143	.300	15	24	26%	11%	91	+0.8
✕Sean Coyle 2012 · A	20	38→36	49→50	53→50	42	.198/.271/.352	.155	.274	16	13	33%	7%	72	-0.2	.199/.257/.341	.142	.284	16	13	34%	6%	63	-0.8	.197/.258/.362	.165	.284	22	15	38%	7%	67	-0.3
✕Jasson Domínguez 2023 · AA	20	43→53	46→50	56→60	43	.209/.282/.339	.129	.315	13	19	36%	8%	73	-0.1	.236/.308/.376	.140	.328	16	27	30%	9%	93	+1.3	.249/.323/.390	.141	.333	16	33	28%	10%	99	+1.2
●Colby Rasmus 2007 · A	20	45→55	46→60	54→50	42	.223/.277/.357	.134	.288	13	15	27%	6%	75	-0.0	.225/.291/.388	.163	.272	19	14	24%	8%	90	+1.0	.237/.305/.454	.217	.309	28	3	32%	8%	109	+1.8
✕Ravel Santana 2011 · A	19	43	46→50	51→55	47	.214/.294/.340	.125	.274	14	15	26%	8%	79	+0.3	.220/.281/.362	.142	.292	16	13	29%	7%	79	+0.3	.205/.253/.387	.182	.264	22	15	31%	6%	72	-0.1
●Jackson Chourio 2023 · AA	19	42→52	49→55	51→55	38	.217/.265/.368	.151	.302	17	12	34%	6%	73	-0.1	.249/.293/.411	.162	.315	18	23	26%	6%	96	+1.5	.261/.307/.430	.168	.314	19	26	23%	6%	101	+1.8
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→45	45→55	50	43	.213/.273/.339	.126	.289	12	10	30%	7%	69	-0.4	.229/.292/.389	.160	.276	19	13	24%	8%	90	+1.0	.230/.293/.405	.176	.264	22	16	22%	7%	92	+1.1
●Alonzo Harris 2009 · A	20	44→50	45→55	50→60	40	.221/.276/.342	.121	.296	13	11	29%	6%	71	-0.3	.205/.243/.307	.102	.275	11	12	29%	4%	46	-2.0	.240/.296/.401	.161	.286	19	35	22%	7%	92	+0.9
✕Noelvi Marte 2022 · A	20	45→53	50	51→55	43	.227/.286/.379	.153	.297	17	14	29%	7%	85	+0.7	.232/.294/.366	.134	.298	15	17	26%	7%	85	+0.7	.241/.288/.377	.137	.301	14	21	24%	5%	83	+0.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)