Luke Dickerson
SS Fredericksburg Nationals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | A/ROKWSH | 359 | .208/.317/.326 | 6 | 22 | 32 | — | .153/.239/.237 |
| 2026 | 20 | A+/AWSH | 527 | .218/.381/.390 | 13 | 26 | 63 | — | .165/.286/.290 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBWSH | 637 | .165/.273/.275 | 11 | 18 | 59 | -0.3 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBWSH | 172 | .174/.281/.297 | 4 | 5 | 67 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBWSH | 260 | .181/.287/.318 | 7 | 8 | 74 | 0.0 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 19 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 333 | 285 | 58 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 41 | 84 | 4 | 21 | 5 | 204 | 312 | 319 | 631 | 116 | 266 | 25 | 12 | 290 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 26 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 273 | 385 | 409 | 794 | 136 | 294 | 15 | 15 | 361 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 96 | 81 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 42 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 136 | 271 | 173 | 444 | 37 | 282 | 44 | 16 | 225 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 431 | 332 | 79 | 19 | 5 | 13 | 91 | 117 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 238 | 406 | 443 | 849 | 205 | 319 | 27 | 21 | 379 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 333 | 296 | 44 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 118 | 4 | 21 | 5 | 149 | 236 | 230 | 466 | 81 | 224 | 35 | 9 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 26 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 208 | 269 | 333 | 603 | 125 | 248 | 23 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 96 | 87 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 55 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 92 | 177 | 115 | 292 | 23 | 245 | 57 | 9 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 431 | 359 | 65 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 64 | 159 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 181 | 310 | 329 | 639 | 148 | 271 | 37 | 15 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 359 | 320 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 124 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 153 | 239 | 228 | 467 | 75 | 231 | 35 | 9 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 359 | 307 | 64 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 45 | 88 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 208 | 317 | 326 | 643 | 117 | 269 | 25 | 13 | 295 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 527 | 446 | 72 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 73 | 214 | 3 | 26 | 7 | 161 | 284 | 285 | 568 | 123 | 273 | 41 | 14 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 527 | 413 | 90 | 22 | 5 | 13 | 106 | 159 | 3 | 26 | 7 | 218 | 381 | 390 | 771 | 172 | 313 | 30 | 20 | 351 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 359 | 320 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 124 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 153 | 239 | 228 | 467 | 75 | 226 | 35 | 9 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 527 | 446 | 72 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 73 | 214 | 3 | 26 | 7 | 161 | 284 | 285 | 568 | 123 | 266 | 41 | 14 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 359 | 320 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 124 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 153 | 239 | 228 | 467 | 75 | 226 | 35 | 9 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 527 | 446 | 72 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 73 | 214 | 3 | 26 | 7 | 161 | 284 | 285 | 568 | 123 | 266 | 41 | 14 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | WSH | 0% | 637 | 550 | 91 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 78 | 259 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 165 | 273 | 275 | 548 | 110 | 280 | 41 | 12 | 255 | 59 | -31 | +2 | -4 | +7 | +14 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | WSH | 34% | 502 | 432 | 76 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 61 | 198 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 174 | 281 | 300 | 581 | 126 | 282 | 39 | 12 | 268 | 67 | -19 | +1 | -2 | +5 | +11 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | WSH | 48% | 537 | 463 | 84 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 65 | 205 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 182 | 288 | 321 | 608 | 138 | 284 | 38 | 12 | 278 | 74 | -16 | +2 | -2 | +6 | +12 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | WSH | 53% | 560 | 484 | 90 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 67 | 208 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 188 | 292 | 335 | 627 | 147 | 286 | 37 | 12 | 285 | 79 | -14 | +2 | -1 | +6 | +12 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | WSH | 55% | 578 | 500 | 96 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 69 | 210 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 193 | 295 | 344 | 640 | 152 | 286 | 36 | 12 | 290 | 82 | -12 | +2 | -1 | +6 | +13 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | WSH | 56% | 590 | 512 | 99 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 69 | 211 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 196 | 297 | 350 | 647 | 154 | 287 | 36 | 12 | 293 | 84 | -11 | +2 | -1 | +6 | +13 | 0.9 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | WSH | 55% | 590 | 512 | 99 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 69 | 211 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 195 | 296 | 348 | 644 | 153 | 286 | 36 | 12 | 291 | 83 | -12 | +2 | -1 | +6 | +13 | 0.8 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | WSH | 59% | 582 | 505 | 97 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 68 | 210 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 193 | 294 | 343 | 637 | 150 | 285 | 36 | 12 | 289 | 82 | -13 | +1 | -2 | +6 | +13 | 0.6 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | WSH | 61% | 565 | 490 | 94 | 19 | 3 | 16 | 66 | 205 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 191 | 291 | 337 | 628 | 146 | 284 | 36 | 12 | 285 | 79 | -14 | +1 | -2 | +6 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | WSH | 62% | 552 | 479 | 91 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 64 | 202 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 188 | 288 | 329 | 618 | 142 | 282 | 37 | 12 | 281 | 76 | -16 | +1 | -3 | +6 | +12 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB MLE | WSH | 63% | 534 | 464 | 86 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 62 | 198 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 184 | 284 | 320 | 604 | 136 | 278 | 37 | 12 | 275 | 73 | -17 | +0 | -4 | +6 | +12 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | WSH | 34% | 172 | 148 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 68 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 174 | 281 | 297 | 578 | 124 | 281 | 40 | 12 | 267 | 67 | -7 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | WSH | 48% | 260 | 225 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 99 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 181 | 287 | 318 | 605 | 137 | 283 | 38 | 12 | 277 | 74 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | WSH | 53% | 295 | 256 | 47 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 110 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 188 | 292 | 333 | 624 | 145 | 285 | 37 | 12 | 284 | 79 | -7 | +1 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | WSH | 55% | 316 | 274 | 53 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 115 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 192 | 295 | 342 | 637 | 150 | 285 | 36 | 12 | 289 | 82 | -7 | +1 | -0 | +3 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | WSH | 56% | 328 | 285 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 117 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 195 | 297 | 348 | 645 | 153 | 286 | 36 | 12 | 292 | 84 | -6 | +1 | -0 | +4 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | WSH | 55% | 325 | 282 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 116 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 194 | 296 | 345 | 641 | 151 | 285 | 36 | 12 | 290 | 83 | -6 | +1 | -0 | +3 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | WSH | 59% | 342 | 297 | 58 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 123 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 192 | 294 | 341 | 635 | 149 | 284 | 36 | 12 | 288 | 82 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | WSH | 61% | 343 | 298 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 125 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 190 | 291 | 335 | 626 | 145 | 283 | 36 | 12 | 284 | 79 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | WSH | 62% | 343 | 298 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 126 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 187 | 288 | 328 | 615 | 140 | 281 | 37 | 12 | 280 | 76 | -10 | +1 | -2 | +4 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB CTX | WSH | 63% | 337 | 293 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 125 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 183 | 283 | 318 | 602 | 135 | 278 | 37 | 12 | 275 | 73 | -11 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +7 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3061 | 2656 | 504 | 103 | 15 | 86 | 359 | 1124 | 19 | 79 | 19 | 190 | 291 | 337 | 628 | 147 | 286 | 37 | 12 | 284 | 74 | -78 | +8 | -10 | +33 | +66 | 2.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 564 | 107 | 22 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 239 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 190 | 290 | 335 | 625 | 145 | 286 | 37 | 12 | 284 | 74 | -17 | +2 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6686 | 5788 | 1064 | 217 | 36 | 171 | 791 | 2481 | 47 | 198 | 55 | 184 | 287 | 322 | 609 | 139 | 281 | 37 | 12 | 277 | 74 | -155 | +13 | -19 | +62 | +126 | 2.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 563 | 103 | 21 | 3 | 17 | 77 | 241 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 183 | 287 | 321 | 609 | 139 | 278 | 37 | 12 | 277 | 74 | -17 | +1 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 431 PAwOBA .374 → .286 (−88)K% 27.1% → 36.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.15% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 14.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 17.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 7.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 2.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 4.91% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .374 → .286; ISO .205 → .160; BABIP .319 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 96 PAwOBA .220 → .145 (−75)K% 43.8% → 57.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 43.75% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 57.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 9.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 18.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 6.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .220 → .145; ISO .037 → .024; BABIP .282 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 333 PAwOBA .286 → .213 (−73)K% 25.2% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.23% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.31% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 8.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.41% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | ×0.962 | ×1.030 | 16.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.97% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | ×0.962 | ×1.030 | 5.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | ×0.962 | ×1.030 | 0.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.49% | ÷1.040 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.97% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 109, 2B 110, 3B 121, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .286 → .213; ISO .116 → .083; BABIP .266 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Nationals · 26 PAwOBA .352 → .253 (−99)K% 15.4% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.995 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.012 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 9.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷0.946 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 23.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.138 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.929 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.328 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.25% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 166, 1B 89, 2B 128, 3B 86, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .352 → .253; ISO .136 → .079; BABIP .294 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).