Shane Sasaki
LF Chattanooga Lookouts| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AA/A/ROKMIA | 290 | .252/.363/.313 | 1 | 24 | 58 | — | .218/.301/.272 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/AAMIA | 350 | .226/.315/.296 | 1 | 30 | 44 | — | .204/.265/.270 |
| 2026 | 26 | AACIN | 198 | .241/.342/.371 | 2 | 9 | 61 | — | .208/.281/.320 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBCIN | 3 | .199/.267/.272 | 0 | 0 | 53 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBCIN | 45 | .199/.268/.275 | 0 | 2 | 54 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Rays | — | 47 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 234 | 227 | 461 | 45 | 308 | 38 | 6 | 215 | -30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 20 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 67 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 179 | 303 | 321 | 624 | 143 | 286 | 40 | 15 | 286 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 144 | 124 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 37 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 290 | 385 | 403 | 788 | 113 | 395 | 26 | 12 | 355 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 402 | 346 | 112 | 27 | 3 | 9 | 49 | 92 | 4 | 47 | 4 | 324 | 414 | 497 | 911 | 173 | 415 | 23 | 12 | 402 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 293 | 256 | 77 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 65 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 301 | 381 | 465 | 845 | 164 | 372 | 22 | 10 | 372 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 16 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 250 | 438 | 417 | 854 | 167 | 375 | 25 | 25 | 388 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 92 | 81 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 31 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 259 | 348 | 333 | 681 | 74 | 420 | 34 | 12 | 314 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 250 | 217 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 69 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 240 | 337 | 300 | 637 | 60 | 347 | 28 | 12 | 298 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 24 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 316 | 458 | 368 | 827 | 53 | 400 | 17 | 17 | 389 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | ROK | FCL Marlins | — | 16 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 400 | 625 | 500 | 1.125 | 100 | 800 | 31 | 38 | 512 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 80 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 221 | 312 | 250 | 562 | 29 | 273 | 18 | 9 | 259 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 270 | 233 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 70 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 227 | 316 | 309 | 625 | 82 | 317 | 26 | 11 | 282 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 198 | 170 | 41 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 57 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 241 | 342 | 371 | 712 | 129 | 348 | 29 | 12 | 320 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 47 | 45 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 149 | 133 | 282 | 22 | 246 | 55 | 4 | 124 | -30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 144 | 131 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 53 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 183 | 252 | 237 | 488 | 53 | 298 | 37 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 402 | 361 | 92 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 127 | 4 | 47 | 4 | 255 | 326 | 377 | 703 | 122 | 365 | 32 | 8 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 293 | 269 | 63 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 90 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 234 | 287 | 357 | 644 | 123 | 311 | 31 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 231 | 375 | 385 | 760 | 154 | 274 | 38 | 19 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 250 | 226 | 48 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 81 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 212 | 285 | 265 | 551 | 53 | 318 | 32 | 8 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 24 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 375 | 300 | 675 | 50 | 335 | 21 | 12 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | — | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 250 | 438 | 333 | 771 | 83 | 612 | 44 | 25 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 80 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 200 | 273 | 229 | 501 | 29 | 246 | 21 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 270 | 244 | 50 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 86 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 205 | 262 | 283 | 545 | 78 | 293 | 32 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 198 | 178 | 37 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 69 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 208 | 281 | 320 | 601 | 112 | 317 | 35 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 47 | 45 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 149 | 133 | 282 | 22 | 263 | 55 | 4 | 124 | -30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Rays | — | 47 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 234 | 227 | 461 | 45 | 308 | 38 | 6 | 215 | -30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 20 | INTL MLE | Perth Heat | — | 67 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 179 | 303 | 321 | 624 | 143 | 286 | 40 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 20 | INTL RAW | Perth Heat | — | 67 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 179 | 303 | 321 | 624 | 143 | 286 | 40 | 15 | 286 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 144 | 131 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 53 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 183 | 252 | 237 | 488 | 53 | 295 | 37 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK RAW | FCL Rays | — | 144 | 124 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 37 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 290 | 385 | 403 | 788 | 113 | 395 | 26 | 12 | 355 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 402 | 361 | 92 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 127 | 4 | 47 | 4 | 255 | 326 | 377 | 703 | 122 | 370 | 32 | 8 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 402 | 346 | 112 | 27 | 3 | 9 | 49 | 92 | 4 | 47 | 4 | 324 | 414 | 497 | 911 | 173 | 415 | 23 | 12 | 402 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 401 | 369 | 84 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 124 | 3 | 29 | 4 | 228 | 282 | 344 | 626 | 117 | 318 | 31 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 401 | 349 | 101 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 100 | 3 | 29 | 4 | 289 | 375 | 433 | 808 | 143 | 382 | 25 | 11 | 359 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 290 | 259 | 55 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 94 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 212 | 294 | 263 | 557 | 50 | 329 | 32 | 9 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 290 | 246 | 62 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 78 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 252 | 363 | 313 | 676 | 61 | 365 | 27 | 13 | 317 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 314 | 63 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 103 | 2 | 30 | 3 | 201 | 262 | 264 | 526 | 64 | 291 | 29 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 350 | 301 | 68 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 37 | 84 | 2 | 30 | 3 | 226 | 315 | 296 | 610 | 70 | 306 | 24 | 11 | 276 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 198 | 178 | 37 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 69 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 208 | 281 | 320 | 601 | 112 | 324 | 35 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 198 | 170 | 41 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 57 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 241 | 342 | 371 | 712 | 129 | 348 | 29 | 12 | 320 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 47 | 45 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 149 | 133 | 282 | 22 | 246 | 55 | 4 | 124 | -30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 144 | 131 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 53 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 183 | 252 | 237 | 488 | 53 | 298 | 37 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 402 | 361 | 92 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 127 | 4 | 47 | 4 | 255 | 326 | 377 | 703 | 122 | 365 | 32 | 8 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 401 | 370 | 84 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 124 | 3 | 29 | 4 | 227 | 282 | 343 | 625 | 116 | 309 | 31 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 290 | 258 | 55 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 94 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 213 | 294 | 264 | 558 | 50 | 336 | 32 | 9 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 321 | 63 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 103 | 2 | 30 | 3 | 196 | 262 | 259 | 520 | 62 | 282 | 29 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 198 | 178 | 37 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 69 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 208 | 281 | 320 | 601 | 112 | 317 | 35 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 290 | 258 | 55 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 94 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 213 | 294 | 264 | 558 | 50 | 336 | 32 | 9 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 321 | 63 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 103 | 2 | 30 | 3 | 196 | 262 | 259 | 520 | 62 | 282 | 29 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 198 | 178 | 37 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 69 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 208 | 281 | 320 | 601 | 112 | 317 | 35 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | CIN | 2% | 248 | 225 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 79 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 198 | 266 | 271 | 537 | 73 | 296 | 32 | 8 | 246 | 53 | -14 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | CIN | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 267 | 272 | 539 | 74 | 297 | 33 | 0 | 247 | 53 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | CIN | 27% | 169 | 153 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 54 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 199 | 267 | 273 | 540 | 75 | 295 | 32 | 8 | 248 | 54 | -9 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +4 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | CIN | 27% | 45 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 199 | 268 | 275 | 543 | 76 | 295 | 31 | 7 | 249 | 54 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 45 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 167 | 222 | 190 | 413 | 24 | 250 | 31 | 7 | 249 | 57 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 607 | 101 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 202 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 166 | 222 | 189 | 411 | 23 | 249 | 31 | 7 | 249 | 57 | -36 | +6 | -3 | -7 | +14 | -2.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2199 | 1985 | 423 | 74 | 17 | 23 | 171 | 719 | 18 | 183 | 23 | 213 | 282 | 302 | 584 | 89 | 318 | 33 | 8 | 253 | 57 | -17 | +2 | -1 | -3 | +6 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 125 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 51 | 213 | 5 | 54 | 7 | 213 | 281 | 303 | 585 | 90 | 318 | 33 | 8 | 253 | 57 | -36 | +4 | -2 | -7 | +14 | -2.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 198 PAwOBA .314 → .259 (−55)K% 28.8% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.79% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 8.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×0.988 | 23.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.014 | ×0.988 | 3.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.014 | ×0.988 | 4.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.40% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .314 → .259; ISO .129 → .109; BABIP .348 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 270 PAwOBA .277 → .236 (−41)K% 25.9% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.93% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.045 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 7.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.31% | ÷1.017 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×0.998 | 21.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.36% | ÷0.955 | ×0.910 | ×1.011 | ×0.998 | 7.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷0.941 | ×0.880 | ×1.011 | ×0.998 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.61% | ÷1.103 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.44% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 88, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .277 → .236; ISO .082 → .076; BABIP .317 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 80 PAwOBA .256 → .225 (−31)K% 17.5% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.50% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.75% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.07% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×1.033 | 21.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.033 | 3.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .256 → .225; ISO .029 → .026; BABIP .273 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 250 PAwOBA .291 → .244 (−47)K% 27.6% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.60% | ÷1.039 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.60% | ÷1.016 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 7.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.70% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 25.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.76% | ÷1.034 | ×0.910 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 5.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.880 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.064 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.51% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 82, K 108, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .291 → .244; ISO .060 → .051; BABIP .347 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 24 PAwOBA .380 → .300 (−80)K% 16.7% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.029 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 11.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.17% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 3.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.065 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 28.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.032 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.980 | 5.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.960 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.888 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 113, 2B 106, 3B 92, K 106, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .380 → .300; ISO .053 → .042; BABIP .400 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Marlins · 16 PAwOBA .502 → .343 (−158)K% 31.2% → 45.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.25% | ÷0.987 | ×1.440 | — | — | 45.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 37.50% | ÷0.970 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 22.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 60.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 47.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 13.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.004 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.898 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 97, 2B 103, 3B 101, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .502 → .343; ISO .100 → .068; BABIP .800 → .612. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 293 PAwOBA .367 → .277 (−90)K% 22.2% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.18% | ÷0.950 | ×1.310 | — | — | 30.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.24% | ÷1.060 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 5.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.23% | ÷1.008 | ×0.870 | ×1.010 | ×0.998 | 23.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.85% | ÷1.047 | ×0.780 | ×1.010 | ×0.998 | 5.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.57% | ÷1.103 | ×0.850 | ×1.010 | ×0.998 | 1.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.66% | ÷1.066 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.02% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 102, 2B 109, 3B 121, K 90, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .367 → .277; ISO .164 → .125; BABIP .372 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Rays · 16 PAwOBA .381 → .250 (−130)K% 25.0% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.999 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.948 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 15.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 19.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 7.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.911 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .381 → .250; ISO .167 → .097; BABIP .375 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .