Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips:
RAW = as recorded ·
CTX = with park/league context ·
A+C = actual + context combined ·
MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park. Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors. WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023
19
ROKMLE
DSL Giants Black
5
0
9
41
12
7
0
0%
1.7
29.3%
17.1%
12.2%
0.0%
7.27
2.79
—
2023
19
ROKRAW
DSL Giants Black
5
0
9
41
12
7
0
0%
1.7
29.3%
17.1%
12.2%
0.0%
7.27
2.75
—
2024
20
ROKMLE
DSL Giants Black
14
1
29
122
39
11
0
7%
2.0
21.7%
11.3%
10.5%
0.0%
3.14
2.69
—
2024
20
ROKMLE
DSL Giants Black
14
1
29
122
39
11
0
7%
2.0
21.7%
11.3%
10.5%
0.0%
3.14
2.69
—
2024
20
ROKRAW
DSL Giants Black
14
1
29
122
39
11
0
7%
2.0
32.0%
9.0%
23.0%
0.0%
3.14
1.53
—
2025
21
MIXMLE
2 levels
18
15
74
302
109
27
2
83%
4.1
25.5%
10.9%
14.6%
0.8%
2.78
2.78
—
2025
21
MIXMLE
2 levels
18
15
74
302
109
27
2
83%
4.1
25.5%
10.9%
14.6%
0.8%
2.78
2.78
—
2025
21
MIXRAW
2 levels
18
15
74
302
109
27
2
83%
4.1
36.1%
8.9%
27.2%
0.7%
2.78
1.61
—
2026
22
A+MLE
Eugene Emeralds
25
25
101
464
126
82
12
100%
4.0
20.9%
20.3%
0.6%
3.2%
5.81
5.68
—
2026
22
A+MLE
Eugene Emeralds
25
25
101
464
126
82
12
100%
4.0
20.9%
20.3%
0.6%
3.2%
5.81
5.68
—
2026
22
A+RAW
Eugene Emeralds
25
25
101
464
126
82
12
100%
4.0
27.2%
17.7%
9.5%
2.6%
5.81
4.59
—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027
23
MLB
SF
13
13
70
296
64
53
9
100%
5.4
21.7%
18.1%
3.7%
2.9%
5.55
5.55
-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028
24
MLBMLE
SF
17
17
93
392
88
60
11
100%
5.5
22.3%
15.4%
6.9%
2.9%
5.26
5.15
-0.3
2029
25
MLBMLE
SF
16
16
94
397
90
54
12
100%
5.9
22.7%
13.7%
9.0%
2.9%
5.02
4.90
0.0
2030
26
MLBMLE
SF
16
16
94
397
91
53
12
100%
5.9
22.8%
13.4%
9.5%
2.9%
4.90
4.85
+0.1
2031
27
MLBMLE
SF
15
15
93
391
89
52
12
100%
6.2
22.8%
13.3%
9.5%
3.0%
4.87
4.87
+0.0
2032
28
MLBMLE
SF
15
15
90
380
86
51
12
100%
6.0
22.7%
13.4%
9.2%
3.1%
4.92
4.95
-0.1
2033
29
MLBMLE
SF
14
14
86
363
81
50
12
100%
6.1
22.4%
13.7%
8.8%
3.2%
5.02
5.08
-0.2
2034
30
MLBMLE
SF
13
13
81
341
75
48
12
100%
6.2
22.1%
14.0%
8.1%
3.4%
5.16
5.26
-0.3
2028
24
MLBCTX
SF
7
7
40
169
38
26
5
100%
5.7
22.3%
15.4%
6.9%
2.7%
5.14
5.03
-0.1
2029
25
MLBCTX
SF
11
11
62
262
59
36
7
100%
5.6
22.7%
13.7%
9.0%
2.7%
4.90
4.78
0.0
2030
26
MLBCTX
SF
12
12
75
317
72
42
9
100%
6.2
22.8%
13.4%
9.5%
2.7%
4.78
4.73
+0.0
2031
27
MLBCTX
SF
13
13
79
334
76
44
9
100%
6.1
22.8%
13.3%
9.5%
2.7%
4.75
4.75
+0.0
2032
28
MLBCTX
SF
13
13
80
338
77
45
10
100%
6.2
22.7%
13.4%
9.2%
2.8%
4.79
4.82
-0.0
2033
29
MLBCTX
SF
13
13
78
329
74
45
10
100%
6.0
22.4%
13.7%
8.8%
3.0%
4.89
4.95
-0.2
2034
30
MLBCTX
SF
12
12
74
312
69
44
10
100%
6.2
22.1%
14.0%
8.1%
3.2%
5.02
5.12
-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career
—
RAW
82
82
489
2063
465
283
59
100%
6.0
22.6%
13.7%
8.8%
2.8%
4.88
4.49
+2.3
/ 200 IP
—
RAW
34
34
200
844
190
116
24
100%
5.9
22.6%
13.7%
8.8%
2.8%
4.88
4.49
+0.9
Career
—
MLE
62
41
212
929
212
148
17
66%
3.4
22.9%
15.9%
6.9%
1.9%
4.45
4.22
-0.7
/ 200 IP
—
MLE
58
39
200
875
200
139
16
66%
3.4
22.9%
15.9%
6.9%
1.9%
4.45
4.22
-0.2
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.