Jacob Frost — OGILVIE

Jacob Frost P Great Lakes Loons

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 230 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113122vR 130

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%22.8%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	25	6	76	345	98	58	9	24%	3.0	21.9%	19.3%	2.5%	3.3%	4.50	5.49	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	25	6	76	345	98	58	9	24%	3.0	21.9%	19.3%	2.5%	3.3%	4.50	5.49	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	LAD	25	6	76	345	98	58	9	24%	3.0	28.4%	16.8%	11.6%	2.6%	4.50	4.26	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	LAD	73	0	76	322	75	42	10	0%	1.0	23.4%	12.9%	10.5%	3.0%	4.87	4.78	-0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAD	74	0	77	326	78	38	10	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.8%	12.0%	3.0%	4.69	4.59	-0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAD	74	0	77	326	78	38	10	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.6%	12.3%	3.0%	4.61	4.56	-0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAD	72	0	76	321	77	37	10	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.6%	12.3%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	LAD	70	0	74	312	74	37	10	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.8%	12.0%	3.1%	4.64	4.67	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	LAD	67	0	70	298	70	36	10	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.0%	11.5%	3.3%	4.74	4.81	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	LAD	63	0	66	280	65	34	10	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.3%	10.9%	3.5%	4.89	4.98	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	LAD	31	0	33	139	33	18	4	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.9%	10.5%	3.0%	4.87	4.78	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAD	49	0	51	215	51	25	6	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.8%	12.0%	3.0%	4.69	4.59	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAD	58	0	61	258	62	30	8	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.6%	12.3%	3.0%	4.61	4.56	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAD	62	0	65	274	66	32	8	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.6%	12.3%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	LAD	63	0	66	279	66	33	9	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.8%	12.0%	3.1%	4.64	4.67	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	LAD	61	0	64	270	64	32	9	0%	1.0	23.5%	12.0%	11.5%	3.3%	4.74	4.81	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	LAD	58	0	61	258	60	32	9	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.3%	10.9%	3.5%	4.89	4.98	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		382	0	401	1694	401	202	53	0%	1.1	23.7%	11.9%	11.7%	3.1%	4.71	4.33	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	101	26	0%	1.1	23.7%	11.9%	11.7%	3.1%	4.71	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		25	6	76	345	75	67	11	24%	3.0	21.9%	19.3%	2.5%	3.3%	4.50	5.49	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	16	200	908	199	176	30	24%	3.0	21.9%	19.3%	2.5%	3.3%	4.50	5.49	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Frost (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	22.8%	14.7%	3.0%	—	4.64	23.7%	11.6%	231	-0.44	—	—	—
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	81
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	79
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	78
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	77
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.29	32.8%	19.4%	102	-1.28	3.04	255	76
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	75
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	74
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	74
Matt Walker L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SU	4.21	16.7%	13.3%	1.5%	.324	4.62	15.5%	4.0%	94	+0.41	4.21	156	74
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.16	15.9%	4.3%	319	-0.25	3.35	498	73
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	73
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	72
Kohl Drake L 2023 · 4.81 FIP	23	SW	4.81	16.3%	11.9%	2.9%	.391	4.32	21.8%	12.5%	292	-0.49	3.32	327	72
Caden Monke L 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	18.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.323	5.38	19.0%	-0.3%	51	-0.10	4.40	163	72
Luis Ysla L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	23	SW	4.88	19.6%	12.5%	3.4%	.412	4.47	18.3%	4.3%	208	-0.41	3.75	378	72
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	71
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	70
Shane McCain L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.8%	9.7%	3.0%	.324	4.75	16.6%	10.0%	125	+0.41	4.34	201	70
Kevin Garcia L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	20.5%	12.8%	3.7%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	196	70
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	68	23.6%	12.1%	1.20	4.73
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33