Adler Cecil

P ACL Padres

Age 22 LHP 6'4" / 160 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKSD	18	3	23	7.54	5.75	27.0%	27.0%	—	K 18.3% · BB 33.7% · FIP 7.19
2026	21	MIX2 levels	19	11	62	4.09	2.74	39.5%	14.0%	—	K 27.7% · BB 17.1% · FIP 4.61
2027PROJ	22	MLBSD	37	0	39	5.07	5.07	25.9%	17.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSD	27	0	28	4.82	4.70	26.4%	14.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBSD	39	0	41	4.58	4.45	26.7%	12.9%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 92%

CompsMark Manfredi Sr. (age 24) · Colby Langford (age 22) · Matt Osterberg (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

K%25.9%

BB%17.0%

K-BB%8.9%

Proj IP39

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6065

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	18	3	23	126	34	34	2	17%	1.3	18.3%	33.7%	-15.4%	2.5%	7.54	7.19	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	18	3	23	126	34	34	2	17%	1.3	18.3%	33.7%	-15.4%	2.5%	7.54	7.19	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	18	3	23	126	34	34	2	17%	1.3	27.0%	27.0%	0.0%	1.6%	7.54	5.75	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	62	271	107	38	6	58%	3.2	27.7%	17.1%	10.6%	3.1%	4.09	4.61	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	11	62	271	107	38	6	58%	3.2	27.7%	17.1%	10.6%	3.1%	4.09	4.61	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	11	62	271	107	38	6	58%	3.2	39.5%	14.0%	25.5%	2.2%	4.09	2.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	SD	37	0	39	165	43	28	5	0%	1.1	25.9%	17.0%	8.9%	3.0%	5.07	5.07	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	55	0	58	243	64	35	7	0%	1.0	26.4%	14.5%	11.9%	2.9%	4.82	4.70	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	56	0	59	249	67	32	7	0%	1.1	26.7%	12.9%	13.8%	2.9%	4.58	4.45	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	57	0	60	252	68	30	7	0%	1.0	26.9%	11.8%	15.1%	2.9%	4.40	4.29	+0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	57	0	60	252	68	30	7	0%	1.0	27.1%	11.7%	15.3%	2.9%	4.32	4.27	+0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	56	0	59	248	67	29	7	0%	1.1	27.0%	11.8%	15.2%	2.9%	4.31	4.31	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	27	0	28	118	31	17	3	0%	1.0	26.4%	14.5%	11.9%	2.9%	4.82	4.70	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	39	0	41	173	46	22	5	0%	1.1	26.7%	12.9%	13.8%	2.9%	4.58	4.45	+0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	46	0	48	203	55	24	6	0%	1.0	26.9%	11.8%	15.1%	2.9%	4.40	4.29	+0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	50	0	52	220	59	26	6	0%	1.0	27.1%	11.7%	15.3%	2.9%	4.32	4.27	+0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	50	0	53	224	61	26	7	0%	1.1	27.0%	11.8%	15.2%	2.9%	4.31	4.31	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		213	0	223	942	253	116	27	0%	1.0	26.9%	12.3%	14.5%	2.9%	4.45	3.99	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	227	104	24	0%	1.1	26.9%	12.3%	14.5%	2.9%	4.45	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		37	14	84	397	98	89	11	38%	2.3	24.7%	22.4%	2.3%	2.9%	5.02	5.43	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	33	200	942	233	211	27	38%	2.3	24.7%	22.4%	2.3%	2.9%	5.02	5.43	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adler Cecil (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	25.9%	17.0%	3.0%	—	4.48	26.7%	13.6%	176	-0.59	—	—	—
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	81
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	79
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	75
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	75
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2022 · 4.15 FIP	22	SW	4.15	25.7%	18.4%	1.6%	.317	6.79	19.3%	-7.6%	36	+2.64	2.58	155	75
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	74
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	73
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	72
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	71
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	71
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	71
Brandon Finnegan L 2015 · 4.48 FIP	22	SW	4.48	21.3%	12.8%	2.8%	.287	5.01	18.5%	6.5%	273	+0.53	3.86	489	71
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	71
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.15	16.0%	4.4%	319	-0.26	3.35	506	70
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	70
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.26	33.2%	19.8%	102	-1.31	2.95	256	70
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	69
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	69
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	69
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	56	26.7%	13.1%	1.13	4.55
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*