Dylan Watts — OGILVIE

Dylan Watts P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 193 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%21.0%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	17	11	62	267	57	35	9	65%	3.6	15.9%	15.2%	0.7%	4.3%	4.67	6.05	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	17	11	62	267	57	35	9	65%	3.6	15.9%	15.2%	0.7%	4.3%	4.67	6.05	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	TOR	12	6	44	178	45	15	5	50%	3.6	25.3%	8.4%	16.9%	2.8%	3.71	3.57	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	TOR	5	5	18	89	12	20	4	100%	3.6	13.5%	22.5%	-9.0%	4.5%	7.00	7.27	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	63	265	58	29	8	100%	5.7	21.9%	10.9%	11.0%	3.0%	4.73	4.65	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	64	271	61	28	8	100%	5.8	22.6%	10.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.57	4.48	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	65	275	63	27	8	100%	5.9	23.0%	9.7%	13.3%	3.0%	4.46	4.38	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	65	275	64	26	8	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	3.0%	4.40	4.36	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	64	271	63	26	8	100%	5.8	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	3.0%	4.40	4.40	+0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	31	131	29	14	4	100%	5.2	21.9%	10.9%	11.0%	3.0%	4.73	4.65	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	45	190	43	19	6	100%	5.6	22.6%	10.2%	12.4%	3.0%	4.57	4.48	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	53	224	52	22	7	100%	5.9	23.0%	9.7%	13.3%	3.0%	4.46	4.38	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	57	241	56	23	7	100%	5.7	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	3.0%	4.40	4.36	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	58	245	57	24	7	100%	5.8	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	3.0%	4.40	4.40	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		42	42	243	1027	235	102	31	100%	5.8	22.9%	9.9%	13.0%	3.0%	4.49	4.05	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	193	84	25	100%	5.8	22.9%	9.9%	13.0%	3.0%	4.49	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		17	11	62	267	43	41	12	65%	3.6	15.9%	15.2%	0.7%	4.3%	4.67	6.05	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	36	200	866	138	132	37	65%	3.6	15.9%	15.2%	0.7%	4.3%	4.67	6.05	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Watts (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	21.0%	12.1%	3.0%	—	4.50	22.5%	12.3%	192	-0.41	—	—	—
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	89
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	88
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	88
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	87
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	87
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	87
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	86
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	85
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	81
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	81
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	81
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	81
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	81
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	80
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	80
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	80
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	80
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	80
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	430	79
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	60	22.6%	10.2%	1.15	4.55
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99