Edgar Colon — OGILVIE

Edgar Colon P Daytona Tortugas

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 156147vR 139

ERA6.45

FIP6.45

K%14.8%

BB%20.2%

K-BB%-5.4%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL3030

CMD2020

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	46	208	35	33	5	81%	2.9	11.3%	18.1%	-6.7%	3.2%	5.09	6.19	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	46	208	35	33	5	81%	2.9	11.3%	18.1%	-6.7%	3.2%	5.09	6.19	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	13	46	208	35	33	5	81%	2.9	16.8%	15.9%	1.0%	2.4%	5.09	5.14	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	17	16	65	292	82	34	12	94%	3.8	21.0%	13.6%	7.4%	5.3%	5.82	5.94	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	17	16	65	292	82	34	12	94%	3.8	21.0%	13.6%	7.4%	5.3%	5.82	5.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	CIN	12	11	47	209	60	24	7	92%	3.9	28.7%	11.5%	17.2%	3.3%	5.32	3.97	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	CIN	5	5	18	83	22	10	5	100%	3.5	26.5%	12.0%	14.5%	6.0%	7.13	5.69	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	67	282	48	50	8	100%	5.6	17.1%	17.8%	-0.7%	3.0%	6.05	5.92	-0.8
2028	22	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	70	296	57	47	9	100%	5.4	19.2%	16.0%	3.2%	2.9%	5.66	5.48	-0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	73	307	63	46	9	100%	5.6	20.5%	14.9%	5.6%	2.9%	5.36	5.20	-0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	75	315	67	45	9	100%	5.7	21.3%	14.2%	7.1%	2.8%	5.16	5.04	-0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	76	319	69	44	9	100%	5.8	21.7%	13.9%	7.9%	2.8%	5.03	4.95	-0.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	76	319	70	44	9	100%	5.8	21.9%	13.8%	8.1%	2.8%	4.97	4.93	-0.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	74	314	69	44	9	100%	6.2	21.9%	13.9%	8.0%	2.9%	4.97	4.96	-0.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	72	305	66	43	9	100%	6.0	21.8%	14.0%	7.8%	3.0%	5.02	5.05	-0.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	69	291	63	42	9	100%	5.8	21.6%	14.3%	7.3%	3.1%	5.12	5.18	-0.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	65	274	58	40	9	100%	5.9	21.2%	14.6%	6.7%	3.3%	5.26	5.36	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	33	139	24	25	4	100%	5.5	17.1%	17.8%	-0.7%	3.2%	6.18	6.05	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	CIN	9	9	51	215	41	34	7	100%	5.7	19.2%	16.0%	3.2%	3.1%	5.79	5.61	-0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	61	258	53	38	8	100%	5.5	20.5%	14.9%	5.6%	3.1%	5.49	5.33	-0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	66	279	59	40	9	100%	5.5	21.3%	14.2%	7.1%	3.1%	5.28	5.16	-0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	69	291	63	40	9	100%	5.8	21.7%	13.9%	7.9%	3.0%	5.15	5.07	-0.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	70	296	65	41	9	100%	5.8	21.9%	13.8%	8.1%	3.0%	5.09	5.05	-0.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	71	300	66	42	9	100%	5.9	21.9%	13.9%	8.0%	3.1%	5.10	5.09	-0.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	69	291	64	41	9	100%	5.8	21.8%	14.0%	7.8%	3.2%	5.15	5.18	-0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	66	279	60	40	9	100%	6.0	21.6%	14.3%	7.3%	3.4%	5.26	5.32	-0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	62	262	56	38	9	100%	6.2	21.2%	14.6%	6.7%	3.6%	5.41	5.51	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	108	618	2610	551	379	83	100%	5.7	21.1%	14.5%	6.6%	3.2%	5.33	4.90	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	178	123	27	100%	5.7	21.1%	14.5%	6.6%	3.2%	5.33	4.90	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		33	29	111	500	85	77	22	88%	3.4	17.0%	15.5%	1.5%	4.4%	5.51	6.05	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	52	200	901	153	139	40	88%	3.4	17.0%	15.5%	1.5%	4.4%	5.51	6.05	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edgar Colon (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.45	14.8%	20.2%	3.0%	—	5.52	19.0%	2.8%	210	-0.93	—	—	—
Enrique Segura R 2023 · 6.44 FIP	18	SP	6.44	13.2%	21.3%	3.2%	.269	5.60	16.4%	2.4%	234	-0.84	4.12	313	88
Hunter Stratton R 2017 · 5.73 FIP	20	SP	5.73	13.1%	20.3%	2.1%	.266	4.69	14.5%	0.1%	174	-1.04	3.02	527	86
Moises Nova R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	20	SP	5.61	14.2%	16.8%	2.9%	.263	4.05	18.3%	4.2%	110	-1.56	3.42	219	86
Mason McGwire R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	19	SP	6.54	13.2%	19.6%	3.8%	.374	4.91	18.1%	3.8%	120	-1.63	4.11	155	86
Jorge Bautista R 2021 · 6.09 FIP	20	SP	6.09	13.1%	16.5%	3.6%	.297	4.86	16.8%	7.5%	231	-1.23	3.80	336	84
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	84
Darlin Alcántara R 2022 · 6.23 FIP	20	SP-	6.23	12.3%	22.2%	2.5%	.320	4.64	12.3%	2.5%	31	-1.59	3.61	118	84
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	84
Camilo Sanchez R 2023 · 6.65 FIP	20	SP-	6.65	10.0%	18.5%	3.8%	.317	5.84	14.8%	0.8%	62	-0.81	3.57	117	83
Eliezer Pena R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	17	SP	6.54	10.5%	18.5%	3.6%	.265	4.47	18.1%	1.2%	114	-2.07	3.26	150	83
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	83
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	83
Eudry Alcantara R 2023 · 6.03 FIP	18	SP	6.03	11.4%	19.2%	2.7%	.278	6.45	15.3%	-9.0%	71	+0.42	4.83	114	83
Randry De Leon R 2023 · 6.45 FIP	18	SP-	6.45	17.7%	20.2%	4.2%	.308	4.83	18.4%	3.3%	123	-1.62	4.37	153	82
Edinxon Arias R 2017 · 7.03 FIP	19	SP	7.03	7.6%	19.9%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	127	81
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	81
Irv Carter R 2023 · 7.11 FIP	20	SP-	7.11	11.4%	18.9%	4.7%	.266	5.51	18.8%	6.1%	150	-1.60	4.81	236	79
Shane Panzini R 2022 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.3%	15.8%	3.6%	.335	4.96	18.5%	5.6%	251	-0.68	4.59	338	79
Ramon Santos R 2015 · 6.07 FIP	20	SP	6.07	7.2%	14.3%	3.2%	.352	4.52	13.3%	3.4%	191	-1.55	3.74	355	79
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	68	20.7%	14.9%	1.14	5.29
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58