Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 12 | 10 | 36 | 169 | 26 | 25 | 5 | 83% | 3.0 | 10.5% | 18.5% | -8.0% | 3.2% | 7.68 | 6.32 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 12 | 10 | 36 | 169 | 26 | 25 | 5 | 83% | 3.0 | 15.4% | 14.8% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 7.68 | 5.52 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 13 | 3 | 31 | 138 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 23% | 2.4 | 15.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 0.9% | 3.77 | 3.25 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 13 | 3 | 31 | 138 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 23% | 2.4 | 22.5% | 5.8% | 16.7% | 0.7% | 3.77 | 2.29 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 11 | 6 | 43 | 181 | 54 | 22 | 1 | 55% | 3.9 | 20.3% | 15.2% | 5.1% | 1.1% | 3.80 | 3.89 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 11 | 6 | 43 | 181 | 54 | 22 | 1 | 55% | 3.9 | 29.8% | 12.2% | 17.7% | 0.6% | 3.80 | 2.42 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 11 | 10 | 37 | 174 | 45 | 35 | 3 | 91% | 3.3 | 17.6% | 25.1% | -7.6% | 2.4% | 5.15 | 6.12 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | COL | 5 | 5 | 27 | 113 | 21 | 15 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.9% | 13.0% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 5.11 | 5.11 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.9% | 13.0% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 5.11 | 5.11 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | COL | — | — | 63 | 287 | 66 | 50 | 6 | — | — | 23.1% | 17.3% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 5.14 | 5.70 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | COL | 6 | 6 | 28 | 119 | 23 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 4.7 | 19.7% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.93 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | COL | 3 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 4.7 | 19.7% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.93 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 4.6 | 19.7% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.93 | 4.48 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 844 | 159 | 101 | 29 | 100% | 4.8 | 19.7% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.93 | 4.48 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 47 | 29 | 147 | 662 | 106 | 112 | 13 | 62% | 3.1 | 16.0% | 17.0% | -1.0% | 1.9% | 5.09 | 4.96 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 40 | 200 | 903 | 145 | 153 | 18 | 62% | 3.1 | 16.0% | 17.0% | -1.0% | 1.9% | 5.09 | 4.96 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eliezer Pena (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.11 | 18.9% | 13.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.86 | 19.7% | 7.9% | 28 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| Reibyn Corona R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.94 | 17.0% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .290 | 5.61 | 14.5% | 1.7% | 63 | +0.67 | 4.38 | 190 | 89 |
| Bryan Polanco R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.33 | 18.2% | 14.3% | 3.5% | .248 | 5.50 | 13.0% | 1.2% | 243 | +0.17 | 5.24 | 347 | 87 |
| Jonawel Valdez R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.20 | 17.5% | 13.8% | 1.5% | .309 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 1.1% | 70 | +0.42 | 4.04 | 131 | 86 |
| Luis Cohen R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.14 | 17.2% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .263 | 4.99 | 13.7% | 3.4% | 225 | +0.85 | 3.00 | 310 | 85 |
| Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.47 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .298 | 5.25 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 96 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 148 | 85 |
| Joshua Quezada R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 2.4% | .293 | 4.27 | 19.3% | 10.1% | 73 | -0.07 | 3.48 | 153 | 85 |
| Ulices Campos R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.60 | 17.9% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .253 | 5.16 | 12.0% | 1.0% | 65 | +0.56 | 4.13 | 153 | 84 |
| Luis Hernandez R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.86 | 16.7% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 6.15 | 21.4% | 4.1% | 64 | +1.29 | 4.16 | 109 | 84 |
| Tanner Hall R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 84 |
| Henry Valencio R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .293 | 5.11 | 11.9% | -11.9% | 14 | +0.96 | 3.48 | 136 | 83 |
| Angel Rivero R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.06 | 19.9% | 16.7% | 2.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 105 | 83 |
| Jharold Clemente R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.08 | 17.5% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .258 | 5.35 | 13.3% | 4.3% | 92 | +0.27 | 3.91 | 116 | 83 |
| Nicholas Economos R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.95 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 3.3% | .233 | 5.28 | 10.4% | 0.6% | 57 | +0.33 | 4.58 | 223 | 83 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2027 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 83 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2029 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 83 |
| Kamdyn Perry R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.18 | 18.6% | 12.8% | 3.7% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.18 | 123 | 82 |
| Nolberto Henriquez R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.75 | 16.0% | 13.4% | 2.4% | .305 | 5.43 | 11.3% | -3.1% | 52 | +0.68 | 4.75 | 108 | 82 |
| Gabriel Chinchilla R 2025 · 5.10 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.10 | 17.9% | 14.4% | 3.1% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 113 | 82 |
| Michael Cederoth R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.02 | 16.8% | 13.0% | 1.3% | .292 | 4.87 | 21.6% | 2.4% | 83 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 118 | 82 |
| Jose Guevara R 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.68 | 18.9% | 13.1% | 4.6% | .255 | 6.99 | 17.9% | 0.5% | 32 | +1.31 | 2.48 | 129 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 19.3% | 12.4% | 1.10 | 5.02 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |