Jorge Bautista

P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 155 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

APROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	21	MIX2 levels	17	15	77	5.70	2.91	22.5%	5.7%	—	K 15.9% · BB 6.9% · FIP 3.80
2023	22	MIX2 levels	22	15	107	4.04	3.63	25.0%	9.2%	—	K 18.8% · BB 10.8% · FIP 4.80
2024	23	MIX2 levels	11	10	56	4.63	4.95	19.1%	9.1%	—	K 13.6% · BB 10.0% · FIP 6.75
2025	24	No MLB games played
2026	25	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	26	MLBTOR	—	—	0	4.57	4.57	21.3%	9.5%	—
2028PROJ36% MLB	27	MLBTOR	2	2	10	4.56	4.58	21.5%	9.6%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Jake Walters (age 26) · Carlos Torres (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%21.3%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	8	0	11	56	7	8	0	0%	1.4	8.5%	17.9%	-9.4%	0.0%	3.18	4.64	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	8	0	11	56	7	8	0	0%	1.4	12.5%	14.3%	-1.8%	0.0%	3.18	3.98	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	13	12	54	228	46	20	3	92%	4.1	13.7%	11.0%	2.8%	1.8%	3.86	4.34	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	13	12	54	228	46	20	3	92%	4.1	20.2%	8.8%	11.4%	1.3%	3.86	3.23	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	12	10	41	182	35	24	5	83%	3.4	13.1%	16.5%	-3.4%	3.7%	5.98	6.09	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	12	10	41	182	35	24	5	83%	3.4	19.2%	13.2%	6.0%	2.7%	5.98	4.75	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	77	333	75	19	6	88%	4.5	15.9%	6.9%	9.0%	2.1%	5.70	3.80	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	15	77	333	75	19	6	88%	4.5	22.5%	5.7%	16.8%	1.8%	5.70	2.91	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	15	107	444	111	41	12	68%	4.9	18.8%	10.8%	8.1%	3.5%	4.04	4.80	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	15	107	444	111	41	12	68%	4.9	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	2.7%	4.04	3.63	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	10	56	241	46	22	10	91%	5.1	13.6%	10.0%	3.6%	6.4%	4.63	6.75	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	10	56	241	46	22	10	91%	5.1	13.6%	10.0%	3.6%	6.4%	4.63	6.75	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	10	56	241	46	22	10	91%	5.1	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	4.1%	4.63	4.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	3.1%	4.57	4.57	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TOR	5	5	27	115	25	11	4	100%	5.4	21.5%	9.6%	12.0%	3.1%	4.56	4.58	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	TOR	2	2	10	42	9	4	1	100%	5.0	21.5%	9.6%	12.0%	3.1%	4.56	4.58	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	42	9	4	1	100%	4.9	21.5%	9.6%	12.0%	3.1%	4.56	4.20	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	182	81	20	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.6%	12.0%	3.1%	4.56	4.20	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		83	62	346	1484	229	160	49	75%	4.2	15.4%	10.8%	4.7%	3.3%	4.68	4.97	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	36	200	857	132	92	28	75%	4.2	15.4%	10.8%	4.7%	3.3%	4.68	4.97	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 46 IPFIP 5.35 → 6.75 (+1.40)K% 18.4% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.41%	—	×0.740	13.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.46%	—	×1.180	9.98%
HR / BF /BF	4.98%	÷1.003	×1.300	6.45%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 5.35 → 6.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 10 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.79 (+1.00)K% 22.5% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.50%	—	×0.680	15.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.250	15.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAugusta GreenJackets · 68 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.89 (+1.26)K% 24.4% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.44%	—	×0.740	18.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.52%	—	×1.180	8.87%
HR / BF /BF	3.01%	÷0.976	×1.300	4.00%

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Rome Braves · 39 IPFIP 3.65 → 4.65 (+1.00)K% 25.8% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.84%	—	×0.770	19.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.80%	—	×1.150	13.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.25%	÷1.022	×1.250	2.75%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.65 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAugusta GreenJackets · 40 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.64 (+0.70)K% 15.8% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.79%	—	×0.740	11.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.79%	—	×1.180	6.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.127	×1.300	3.04%

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Braves · 37 IPFIP 1.54 → 2.68 (+1.15)K% 31.5% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.47%	—	×0.680	21.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.59%	—	×1.250	6.99%
HR / BF /BF	0.70%	÷1.066	×1.400	0.92%

Result: FIP 1.54 → 2.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Braves · 41 IPFIP 4.65 → 6.09 (+1.43)K% 19.2% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.23%	—	×0.680	13.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.19%	—	×1.250	16.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.053	×1.400	3.65%

Result: FIP 4.65 → 6.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKDSL Braves · 54 IPFIP 3.23 → 4.34 (+1.11)K% 20.2% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.18%	—	×0.680	13.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.77%	—	×1.250	10.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.84%

Result: FIP 3.23 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jorge Bautista (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	21.3%	9.5%	3.1%	—	4.58	21.5%	12.0%	27	+0.01	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	84
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	79
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	78
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	78
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	78
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	77
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	75
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.42	16.1%	9.6%	113	+1.66	2.78	181	75
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	75
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	75
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	74
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	74
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	74
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	74
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	73
Brad Lincoln R 2011 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP-	3.78	13.7%	5.7%	2.1%	.301	4.23	22.3%	13.9%	120	+0.45	3.78	280	72
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	72
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	72
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	72
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	21.4%	9.5%	1.19	4.57
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*