Jorge Bautista
P
Dunedin Blue Jays
Age 25
RHP
6'0" / 155 lbs
A
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 104
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
K%21.9%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%12.5%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Braves | 8 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 8.5% | 17.9% | -9.4% | 0.0% | 3.18 | 4.64 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Braves | 8 | 0 | 11 | 56 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 12.5% | 14.3% | -1.8% | 0.0% | 3.18 | 3.98 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Braves | 13 | 12 | 54 | 228 | 46 | 20 | 3 | 92% | 4.1 | 13.7% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 3.86 | 4.34 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Braves | 13 | 12 | 54 | 228 | 46 | 20 | 3 | 92% | 4.1 | 20.2% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 1.3% | 3.86 | 3.23 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Braves | 12 | 10 | 41 | 182 | 35 | 24 | 5 | 83% | 3.4 | 13.1% | 16.5% | -3.4% | 3.5% | 5.98 | 5.99 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Braves | 12 | 10 | 41 | 182 | 35 | 24 | 5 | 83% | 3.4 | 19.2% | 13.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 5.98 | 4.75 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 15 | 77 | 333 | 75 | 19 | 6 | 88% | 4.5 | 15.9% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 1.9% | 5.70 | 3.69 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 15 | 77 | 333 | 75 | 19 | 6 | 88% | 4.5 | 22.5% | 5.7% | 16.8% | 1.8% | 5.70 | 2.91 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 15 | 107 | 444 | 111 | 41 | 12 | 68% | 4.9 | 18.8% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.04 | 4.82 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 15 | 107 | 444 | 111 | 41 | 12 | 68% | 4.9 | 25.0% | 9.2% | 15.8% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 3.63 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 10 | 56 | 241 | 46 | 22 | 10 | 91% | 5.1 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 4.63 | 6.74 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 10 | 56 | 241 | 46 | 22 | 10 | 91% | 5.1 | 19.1% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 4.63 | 4.95 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 6 | 6 | 37 | 155 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.9% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 6 | 6 | 37 | 155 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 16 | 66 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.15 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 77 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 83 | 62 | 346 | 1484 | 229 | 160 | 48 | 75% | 4.2 | 15.4% | 10.8% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.94 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 36 | 200 | 857 | 132 | 92 | 28 | 75% | 4.2 | 15.4% | 10.8% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.94 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jorge Bautista (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 21.9% | 9.5% | 3.2% | — | 4.53 | 22.3% | 12.9% | 37 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 82 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 81 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 79 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .380 | 4.51 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 119 | 77 |
| Andrew Politi R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.50 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 4.8% | .320 | 4.16 | 23.1% | 13.2% | 138 | -1.34 | 3.45 | 292 | 76 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 75 |
| Matt Ager R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 75 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 75 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 75 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 75 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 75 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 75 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 74 |
| Cole Percival R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 17.5% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .296 | 3.59 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 36 | -0.73 | 3.59 | 327 | 74 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 74 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 74 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 73 |
| Ryan Watson R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.26 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | .342 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 5.4% | 98 | +1.59 | 4.26 | 165 | 73 |
| Brett Daniels R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 3.1% | .357 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 77 | +0.20 | 3.98 | 270 | 73 |
| Burch Smith R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 37 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.23 | 4.56 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |