Jorge Bautista — OGILVIE

Jorge Bautista P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 155 lbs A peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%19.0%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	8	0	11	56	7	8	0	0%	1.4	8.5%	17.9%	-9.4%	0.0%	3.18	4.64	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	8	0	11	56	7	8	0	0%	1.4	12.5%	14.3%	-1.8%	0.0%	3.18	3.98	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	13	12	54	228	46	20	3	92%	4.1	13.7%	11.0%	2.8%	1.8%	3.86	4.34	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	13	12	54	228	46	20	3	92%	4.1	20.2%	8.8%	11.4%	1.3%	3.86	3.23	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	12	10	41	182	35	24	5	83%	3.4	13.1%	16.5%	-3.4%	3.7%	5.98	6.09	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	12	10	41	182	35	24	5	83%	3.4	19.2%	13.2%	6.0%	2.7%	5.98	4.75	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	77	333	75	19	6	88%	4.5	15.9%	6.9%	9.0%	2.1%	5.70	3.80	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	15	77	333	75	19	6	88%	4.5	22.5%	5.7%	16.8%	1.8%	5.70	2.91	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	15	107	444	111	41	12	68%	4.9	18.8%	10.8%	8.1%	3.5%	4.04	4.80	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	15	107	444	111	41	12	68%	4.9	18.8%	10.8%	8.1%	3.5%	4.04	4.80	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	15	107	444	111	41	12	68%	4.9	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	2.7%	4.04	3.63	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	10	56	241	46	22	10	91%	5.1	13.6%	10.0%	3.6%	6.4%	4.63	6.75	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	10	56	241	46	22	10	91%	5.1	13.6%	10.0%	3.6%	6.4%	4.63	6.75	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	10	56	241	46	22	10	91%	5.1	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	4.1%	4.63	4.95	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	TOR	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	19.0%	10.1%	9.0%	3.2%	4.90	4.90	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	51	214	43	21	7	100%	6.3	19.9%	9.9%	10.0%	3.2%	4.82	4.80	+0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	50	211	43	21	7	100%	6.2	20.2%	10.0%	10.2%	3.2%	4.79	4.80	+0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	TOR	4	4	22	93	19	9	3	100%	5.5	19.9%	9.9%	10.0%	3.2%	4.82	4.80	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	TOR	5	5	31	131	26	13	4	100%	6.2	20.2%	10.0%	10.2%	3.2%	4.79	4.80	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	53	224	45	22	7	100%	5.9	20.1%	10.0%	10.1%	3.2%	4.80	4.42	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	170	83	26	100%	6.0	20.1%	10.0%	10.1%	3.2%	4.80	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		83	62	346	1484	229	160	49	75%	4.2	15.4%	10.8%	4.7%	3.3%	4.68	4.97	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	36	200	857	132	92	28	75%	4.2	15.4%	10.8%	4.7%	3.3%	4.68	4.97	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jorge Bautista (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	19.0%	10.1%	3.2%	—	4.80	20.1%	10.1%	101	-0.10	—	—	—
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	83
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	81
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	80
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	80
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	79
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	79
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	79
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	78
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	78
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	78
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	77
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	77
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	77
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	77
Orlando Rodriguez R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SP-	4.54	20.8%	10.1%	3.5%	.380	4.51	19.3%	7.9%	101	-0.03	4.40	119	77
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	77
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	76
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	19.8%	10.0%	1.24	4.83
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21