Irv Carter — OGILVIE

Irv Carter P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 121

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%16.9%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%5.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	48	204	53	15	10	77%	3.7	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	7.5%	5.48	6.82	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	48	204	53	15	10	77%	3.7	26.0%	7.4%	18.6%	4.9%	5.48	4.55	—
2023	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	13	10	38	194	30	31	9	77%	2.9	11.4%	18.9%	-7.4%	4.7%	8.60	7.11	—
2023	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	13	10	38	194	30	31	9	77%	2.9	11.4%	18.9%	-7.4%	4.7%	8.60	7.11	—
2023	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	13	10	38	194	30	31	9	77%	2.9	15.5%	16.0%	-0.5%	4.6%	8.60	7.08	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	73	306	78	37	8	0%	2.0	19.1%	14.2%	4.8%	3.3%	3.80	5.09	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	73	306	78	37	8	0%	2.0	19.1%	14.2%	4.8%	3.3%	3.80	5.09	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	73	306	78	37	8	0%	2.0	25.5%	12.1%	13.4%	2.6%	3.80	3.90	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	27	0	60	273	62	20	12	0%	2.2	17.5%	8.4%	9.1%	6.4%	5.67	6.22	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	27	0	60	273	62	20	12	0%	2.2	17.5%	8.4%	9.1%	6.4%	5.67	6.22	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	27	0	60	273	62	20	12	0%	2.2	22.7%	7.3%	15.4%	4.4%	5.67	4.62	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	10	0	17	81	22	16	1	0%	1.7	22.0%	21.7%	0.3%	1.5%	4.86	4.81	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	10	0	17	81	22	16	1	0%	1.7	22.0%	21.7%	0.3%	1.5%	4.86	4.81	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	TOR	10	0	17	81	22	16	1	0%	1.7	27.2%	19.8%	7.4%	1.2%	4.86	3.99	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TOR	5	0	5	22	4	2	1	0%	1.0	16.9%	11.4%	5.5%	3.6%	5.50	5.50	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	22	103	26	18	2	—	—	25.0%	18.0%	7.0%	1.7%	5.01	4.97	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	64	0	68	285	52	30	10	0%	1.1	18.2%	10.6%	7.6%	3.6%	5.29	5.24	-0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	65	0	68	289	55	29	10	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	3.5%	5.14	5.08	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	65	0	68	289	56	29	10	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.0%	9.3%	3.5%	5.06	5.02	-0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	64	0	67	285	55	29	10	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.1%	9.4%	3.5%	5.04	5.04	-0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	62	0	65	276	53	28	10	0%	1.1	19.3%	10.2%	9.1%	3.6%	5.09	5.13	-0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	60	0	62	264	50	28	10	0%	1.0	19.1%	10.5%	8.6%	3.8%	5.19	5.26	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	29	0	30	127	23	13	5	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.6%	7.6%	3.6%	5.29	5.24	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	44	0	46	194	37	20	7	0%	1.0	18.9%	10.1%	8.8%	3.5%	5.14	5.08	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	51	0	54	228	44	23	8	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.0%	9.3%	3.5%	5.06	5.02	-0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	55	0	58	245	48	25	9	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.1%	9.4%	3.5%	5.04	5.04	-0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	55	0	58	245	47	25	9	0%	1.1	19.3%	10.2%	9.1%	3.6%	5.09	5.13	-0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	54	0	57	241	46	25	9	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.5%	8.6%	3.8%	5.19	5.26	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		288	0	303	1278	245	131	46	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.2%	8.9%	3.6%	5.12	4.74	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	87	30	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.2%	8.9%	3.6%	5.12	4.74	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		100	20	236	1058	183	139	53	20%	2.4	17.3%	13.2%	4.1%	5.0%	5.46	6.06	-2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	17	200	898	155	118	45	20%	2.4	17.3%	13.2%	4.1%	5.0%	5.46	6.06	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Irv Carter (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	16.9%	11.4%	3.6%	—	5.11	18.8%	8.6%	204	-0.39	—	—	—
Matt Eckelman R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	23	SU	4.73	15.0%	9.9%	3.0%	.304	4.23	17.4%	5.7%	97	-0.50	4.07	386	86
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	86
Colin Welmon R 2016 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	13.8%	9.6%	4.6%	.339	5.33	12.0%	5.0%	73	-0.32	5.33	142	86
Jake McCasland R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SU	4.78	14.2%	9.8%	3.0%	.348	3.80	15.8%	8.2%	317	-0.98	3.07	367	85
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	85
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	85
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	85
Simon Mercedes R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	23	SU	4.86	14.3%	11.7%	2.7%	.309	4.94	16.4%	3.9%	60	+0.08	4.86	139	85
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	84
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	84
Reece Karalus R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	14.0%	9.1%	3.4%	.303	4.73	15.4%	3.5%	55	-0.18	4.73	149	84
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	84
Tayler Scott R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	23	SU	4.48	16.7%	12.7%	2.1%	.309	4.09	17.9%	6.2%	162	-0.39	3.22	528	84
Taylor Lewis R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	15.4%	11.7%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	2.47	142	84
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	84
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	84
Kelvis Valerio R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	23	SU	4.53	12.9%	10.3%	2.2%	.312	4.18	11.4%	4.0%	190	-0.35	4.14	266	84
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	84
Luis Eusebio R 2019 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.2%	10.6%	3.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	131	84
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	66	18.8%	10.4%	1.38	5.18
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43