Joseph Sullivan — OGILVIE

Joseph SullivanOF Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 24 L/L 5'10" / 198 lbs AA H +4%HR -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2029

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .307 / .341

PA320

HR9

SB17

K%33

BB%11

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

30↗40

PWR

50↗51

SPD

56↘55

FLD

41↗49

EYE

61↗68

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.0peak

2029

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.7M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$12M		$14M	+$2M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	89	73	15	4	0	0	8	15	7	8	4	.205	.341	.260	.601	.055	.254	17	9	.281	73	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2025	23	A+	3 teams	550	463	78	11	3	13	64	199	21	50	11	.168	.297	.289	.587	.121	.257	36	12	.265	61	-24	+6	+0	-3	+16	-0.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	72	61	10	1	1	2	10	30	1	7	3	.164	.292	.311	.603	.148	.276	42	14	.257	55	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
ROS	24	MLB	HOU	248	212	42	7	1	7	28	85	6	10	3	.198	.309	.340	.649	.142	.287	34	11	.296	85	-4	+1	-0	-1	+7	0.2
TOT	24	MLB	HOU	320	273	52	8	2	9	38	115	7	17	6	.190	.305	.333	.638	.143	.287	36	12	.287	78	-8	+1	-0	-2	+9	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	25	MLB 11%	HOU	370	315	66	11	2	11	44	100	8	13	4	.210	.322	.362	.683	.152	.267	27	12	.310	95	-2	+1	-1	-2	+10	0.7
2028	26	MLB 26%	HOU	407	347	74	13	2	12	48	109	9	12	4	.213	.324	.366	.690	.153	.270	27	12	.313	98	-1	+1	-1	-2	+12	0.8
2029	27	MLB 44%	HOU	420	359	77	13	2	13	49	112	9	11	3	.214	.324	.370	.694	.156	.271	27	12	.314	99	-1	+1	-1	-3	+12	0.9
2030	28	MLB 53%	HOU	425	363	77	13	2	13	50	114	9	10	3	.212	.322	.366	.689	.154	.271	27	12	.313	98	-1	+1	-2	-3	+12	0.8
2031	29	MLB 64%	HOU	420	358	76	13	2	12	50	113	9	9	3	.212	.324	.360	.684	.148	.270	27	12	.311	96	-2	+1	-2	-3	+12	0.6
2032	30	MLB 73%	HOU	414	353	74	13	2	12	49	113	9	9	2	.210	.321	.360	.681	.150	.269	27	12	.308	94	-3	+1	-3	-2	+12	0.5
2033	31	MLB 81%	HOU	401	343	71	12	2	11	47	111	8	7	2	.207	.317	.350	.666	.143	.267	28	12	.304	91	-4	+1	-4	-2	+11	0.2
2034	32	MLB 88%	HOU	384	328	66	11	2	10	45	109	8	6	1	.201	.312	.338	.651	.137	.265	28	12	.300	87	-5	+1	-4	-2	+11	-0.0
2035	33	MLB	HOU	355	303	60	10	2	9	42	103	7	6	1	.198	.310	.333	.643	.135	.263	29	12	.294	83	-7	+1	-5	-2	+10	-0.3
2036	34	MLB	HOU	311	266	50	8	1	7	36	93	6	5	1	.188	.299	.305	.603	.117	.261	30	12	.288	78	-8	+1	-5	-2	+9	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4794	4083	826	139	23	130	560	1376	116	156	42	.202	.316	.343	.659	.141	.268	29	12	.301	88	-64	+14	-28	-29	+136	3.0
/ 162G	—			650	554	112	19	3	18	76	187	16	21	6	.202	.316	.345	.661	.143	.267	29	12	.301	88	-9	+2	-4	-4	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	89	68	17	5	0	0	13	11	7	8	4	.250	.420	.324	.744	.074	.293	12	15	.354	129	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2025	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	140	110	21	2	0	2	23	42	6	8	1	.191	.360	.264	.623	.073	.284	30	16	.304	91	-1	+1	—	—	+4	0.4
2025	23	A+	Asheville Tourists	341	262	61	11	2	15	65	91	14	34	8	.233	.411	.462	.872	.229	.295	27	19	.393	159	+23	+4	—	—	+10	3.7
2025	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	69	54	16	2	1	1	13	16	1	8	2	.296	.441	.426	.867	.130	.395	23	19	.390	157	+4	+1	—	—	+2	0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joseph Sullivan (OGILVIE)	24	30→40	50→51	56→55	68	.202/.307/.341	.139	.288	9	10	33%	11%	86	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Wilyer Abreu 2023 · AA	24	42→48	48→60	51→50	48	.206/.299/.347	.142	.306	17	19	36%	11%	83	+0.6	.232/.314/.413	.181	.299	23	14	29%	10%	106	+2.2	.240/.318/.444	.204	.286	27	11	26%	10%	110	+1.8
●Will Benson 2022 · AAA	24	35→45	52→55	53→55	44	.184/.270/.354	.170	.283	20	15	40%	10%	73	-0.1	.220/.318/.395	.175	.317	18	21	33%	12%	102	+1.9	.221/.322/.401	.180	.313	18	26	32%	12%	102	+1.4
●Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	39→43	51→55	54→50	47	.204/.289/.363	.160	.282	18	16	33%	10%	82	+0.5	.215/.301/.392	.177	.270	21	10	27%	10%	95	+1.4	.206/.293/.385	.178	.247	22	6	26%	10%	88	+0.6
✕Garrett Mitchell 2022 · AA	23	47	45→50	56→60	48	.223/.306/.345	.122	.333	14	20	34%	10%	85	+0.7	.239/.311/.374	.135	.355	13	26	33%	9%	94	+1.3	.249/.323/.406	.156	.360	16	32	33%	9%	102	+0.8
●Davis Schneider 2023 · AAA	24	41→44	50→55	53→50	45	.206/.286/.363	.157	.300	18	12	36%	10%	82	+0.5	.219/.316/.410	.191	.291	23	10	31%	11%	106	+2.2	.213/.322/.409	.196	.275	24	9	30%	12%	106	+1.6
✕DJ Stewart 2018 · AA	24	46→48	48→60	52→50	48	.232/.304/.375	.143	.287	16	16	24%	8%	92	+1.2	.226/.301/.386	.160	.275	19	12	24%	8%	94	+1.3	.217/.322/.406	.189	.259	24	4	26%	12%	104	+1.0
●James Outman 2022 · AA	25	40→49	50→60	53→50	42	.203/.280/.356	.152	.292	18	15	35%	8%	77	+0.1	.227/.313/.417	.190	.325	23	14	35%	9%	107	+2.2	.223/.317/.418	.195	.310	25	14	34%	10%	107	+2.0
●Derek Fisher 2017 · AAA	23	44→51	49→55	55	45	.219/.292/.364	.144	.309	17	20	33%	9%	83	+0.6	.229/.300/.394	.165	.320	20	18	33%	9%	95	+1.4	.226/.302/.402	.176	.310	23	18	33%	9%	95	+1.0
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	38→43	48→50	57→55	45	.200/.272/.345	.145	.264	16	19	30%	8%	71	-0.3	.213/.284/.353	.140	.278	16	18	28%	8%	78	+0.2	.213/.283/.350	.137	.276	16	17	28%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Elijah Dunham 2022 · A	24	44→43	48→50	55→60	45	.221/.293/.368	.147	.294	15	21	29%	8%	85	+0.7	.213/.285/.362	.149	.289	16	27	30%	8%	81	+0.4	.202/.276/.353	.151	.276	17	29	32%	8%	71	-0.2
●Cavan Biggio 2019 · AA	24	40→49	50→55	48→50	48	.206/.294/.357	.151	.290	17	12	33%	10%	83	+0.6	.229/.336/.398	.169	.304	19	14	28%	13%	111	+2.5	.229/.345/.391	.162	.296	18	13	26%	14%	112	+1.8
✕Taylor Trammell 2022 · MLB	24	38→46	47→55	47→55	44	.198/.275/.330	.132	.278	16	13	33%	8%	68	-0.5	.215/.298/.388	.173	.291	21	17	32%	10%	93	+1.3	.205/.299/.385	.179	.274	22	23	32%	11%	90	+0.6
✕Drew Robinson 2016 · AAA	24	36→41	48→55	48→50	44	.188/.265/.331	.144	.271	15	11	35%	9%	65	-0.7	.204/.278/.369	.165	.296	18	13	35%	9%	79	+0.3	.207/.288/.362	.155	.320	17	12	37%	10%	78	+0.1
✕Austin Wells 2023 · AA	24	43→45	52→55	57→50	47	.221/.304/.390	.169	.296	20	14	31%	10%	96	+1.5	.219/.293/.392	.173	.271	21	8	27%	9%	92	+1.2	.215/.288/.396	.181	.255	22	5	25%	8%	89	+0.7
●Jack Suwinski 2022 · AA	24	39→41	51→60	45→50	43	.201/.278/.358	.157	.299	19	8	38%	9%	77	+0.1	.213/.300/.410	.197	.288	26	11	34%	10%	99	+1.7	.202/.293/.398	.196	.262	27	11	33%	10%	90	+0.9
✕Quincy Hamilton 2023 · AA	25	46→45	46→50	53→50	48	.227/.308/.358	.131	.293	14	18	26%	9%	89	+1.0	.206/.284/.348	.142	.267	16	13	28%	9%	77	+0.1	.176/.257/.318	.142	.226	17	10	29%	9%	55	-0.8
✕Kevin Watson Jr 2023 · A	24	45	46→50	55→50	48	.214/.308/.345	.130	.323	13	13	34%	11%	85	+0.7	.229/.307/.312	.083	.321	5	10	27%	10%	76	+0.1	.245/.325/.293	.048	.333	0	8	24%	10%	77	+0.1
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	41→47	49→55	51→55	43	.211/.270/.356	.146	.270	16	12	28%	7%	72	-0.2	.223/.290/.386	.163	.284	18	19	27%	8%	89	+0.9	.223/.295/.390	.167	.282	18	22	27%	9%	89	+0.8
✕John Rave 2023 · AAA	25	43	49→50	54→50	43	.216/.286/.357	.142	.309	18	17	35%	8%	79	+0.3	.217/.284/.358	.141	.299	15	15	31%	8%	79	+0.3	.214/.283/.361	.147	.282	16	17	29%	8%	76	+0.0
●Dominic Canzone 2022 · AA	24	46→53	49→60	54→50	42	.231/.289/.377	.145	.306	16	18	29%	7%	85	+0.7	.244/.298/.420	.176	.291	22	13	24%	7%	101	+1.8	.252/.309/.432	.181	.291	24	5	22%	7%	106	+1.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)