Joseph Sullivan — OGILVIE

Joseph SullivanOF Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 24 L/L 5'10" / 198 lbs AA HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION332 act + 221 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .274 / .295

PA221

HR5

SB11

K%38

BB%9

BABIP275

ISO119

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 51

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER51

scouting grade only

EYE67

scouting grade only

SPEED56

scouting grade only

DEFENSE49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	89	73	14	3	0	0	8	15	7	8	4	192	330	233	562	41	237	17	9	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	89	68	17	5	0	0	13	11	7	8	4	250	420	324	744	74	293	12	15	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	3 teams	—	550	459	74	10	2	10	68	204	21	50	11	161	297	257	555	96	259	37	12	260	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	3 teams	—	550	426	98	15	3	18	101	149	21	50	11	230	401	406	808	176	307	27	18	370	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AA	HOU	—	332	297	53	10	2	9	27	134	6	19	6	178	261	316	577	138	284	40	8	254	53	-18	+1	+0	-2	+9	-0.9
YTD	24	AA	HOU	—	332	284	62	12	2	11	40	104	6	19	6	218	327	391	718	173	300	31	12	323	106	+2	+1	+0	-2	+9	1.1
ROS	24	AA	HOU	2%	221	193	34	6	1	5	21	84	5	11	3	176	274	295	568	119	280	38	9	268	63	-9	+1	-0	-1	+6	-0.4
ROS	24	MLB	HOU	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0						282	50	0	253	52	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	24	AA	HOU	—	336	301	53	10	2	9	27	136	6	19	6	176	257	312	570	136	280	40	8	254	53	-18	+1	-0	-2	+10	-0.9
TOT	24	AA	HOU	—	553	490	87	16	3	14	48	218	11	30	9	177	266	308	574	131	280	39	9	259	57	-27	+2	-0	-3	+16	-1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	HOU	31%	370	323	62	11	2	10	36	134	8	13	4	192	289	331	620	139	280	36	10	277	70	-13	+1	-0	-2	+10	-0.4
2028	26	MLB	HOU	45%	407	357	68	12	2	11	39	144	8	13	4	190	285	328	612	137	281	35	10	283	75	-12	+1	-0	-2	+12	-0.2
2027	25	MLB	HOU	31%	115	101	19	3	1	3	11	42	2	4	1	188	281	327	607	139	282	37	10	264	60	-5	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.2
2028	26	MLB	HOU	45%	181	158	31	6	1	5	17	64	4	6	2	196	291	342	632	146	284	35	9	271	66	-7	+0	-0	-1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	300	263	50	9	2	8	28	108	6	10	3	190	283	331	614	141	282	36	9	268	63	-12	+1	-0	-2	+8	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	570	108	20	4	17	61	234	13	22	6	189	283	328	611	139	282	36	9	268	63	-27	+2	-1	-4	+18	-1.1
Career	—			—	1637	1405	252	42	7	36	172	581	49	95	26	179	291	296	587	117	271	35	11	271	66	-63	+9	-1	-10	+46	-2.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	558	100	17	3	14	68	231	19	38	10	179	289	296	585	116	272	36	10	271	66	-25	+4	-0	-4	+18	-0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	89	68	17	5	0	0	13	11	7	8	4	250	420	324	744	74	293	12	15	354	129	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2025	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	140	110	21	2	0	2	23	42	6	8	1	191	360	264	623	73	284	30	16	304	91	-1	+1	—	—	+4	0.4
2025	23	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	341	262	61	11	2	15	65	91	14	34	8	233	411	462	872	229	295	27	19	393	159	+23	+4	—	—	+10	3.7
2025	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	69	54	16	2	1	1	13	16	1	8	2	296	441	426	867	130	395	23	19	390	157	+4	+1	—	—	+2	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	303	8	10	192	285	330	-2	-0	-0.1	-0.1
	/162	664	18	23	192	285	330	-4.0	-0.2	-0.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joseph Sullivan (OGILVIE)	24	36→40	50→51	55→56	67	177/266/308	131	280	14	30	39%	9%	57	-1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hayden Cantrelle 2023 · AA	24	37	41→45	55→60	52	173/295/280	107	289	8	22	38%	13%	66	-0.6	201/308/302	101	316	8	22	35%	11%	76	+0.0	209/299/306	97	351	7	34	38%	10%	68	-0.2
✕Kameron Misner 2022 · AA	24	42→43	43→50	55	42	199/272/316	117	310	10	19	36%	8%	63	-0.8	200/289/343	143	318	15	23	38%	11%	78	+0.2	205/283/356	150	291	16	27	33%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Oliver Dunn 2022 · AA	24	39→47	44→50	53→55	45	189/273/309	120	297	11	14	38%	10%	62	-0.9	217/302/371	154	344	15	14	38%	10%	89	+1.0	212/288/350	139	311	14	25	34%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Elijah Dunham 2022 · A	24	44→42	47→50	55→60	45	219/291/363	144	292	14	21	29%	8%	83	+0.6	212/283/362	150	289	16	27	31%	8%	80	+0.4	202/275/357	155	275	17	29	32%	8%	72	-0.2
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	48→50	57→55	46	198/276/341	142	266	15	19	30%	9%	71	-0.3	217/288/368	151	280	17	17	28%	8%	83	+0.6	218/288/372	154	276	19	17	27%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Danny Payne 2011 · A	25	39→42	42→45	55→50	48	190/278/297	107	285	9	19	34%	10%	61	-1.0	196/278/323	127	324	12	14	39%	10%	67	-0.5	170/264/317	147	295	14	11	43%	11%	59	-0.6
✕Travis Swaggerty 2022 · AAA	24	44	43→45	52→55	45	214/280/322	108	290	11	16	29%	8%	67	-0.5	207/267/326	119	297	10	19	31%	7%	63	-0.9	199/264/312	113	295	8	20	33%	8%	54	-0.7
✕Caleb Roberts 2023 · AA	23	41→42	43→45	50	43	199/278/313	114	297	11	12	34%	8%	65	-0.7	202/279/326	124	295	11	11	33%	8%	69	-0.4	187/272/303	117	258	12	11	30%	8%	58	-0.7
✕Alerick Soularie 2023 · A	24	39	44→45	53→60	44	192/275/311	119	295	12	16	36%	9%	64	-0.8	197/281/310	113	291	12	26	34%	9%	66	-0.6	177/270/280	103	254	13	39	33%	10%	53	-0.5
✕Justin Farmer 2023 · A	24	37→31	44→40	54→55	51	183/290/296	114	287	13	20	37%	13%	67	-0.5	187/265/280	93	314	9	18	39%	9%	51	-1.7	159/226/223	64	280	6	22	42%	7%	17	-2.2
✕Kevin Watson Jr 2023 · A	24	44	47→50	55→50	48	211/305/350	138	317	14	13	35%	10%	86	+0.8	226/304/309	83	314	6	10	27%	10%	74	-0.1	237/321/283	46	323	0	8	24%	10%	73	-0.1
✕Jeter Downs 2022 · AAA	24	35→40	46→50	53→55	40	187/250/311	124	262	15	19	34%	7%	53	-1.5	184/265/319	135	258	16	22	34%	8%	62	-0.9	175/266/324	149	236	18	26	33%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Brian O'Grady 2016 · A	24	39→37	43→60	54→50	48	193/272/304	111	262	10	14	29%	9%	60	-1.0	191/270/313	122	269	12	13	31%	9%	62	-0.9	207/269/398	192	270	24	15	32%	7%	82	+0.3
✕T.J. Mittelstaedt 2013 · AA	25	42→47	45	52→50	45	204/280/336	132	306	12	15	35%	9%	72	-0.2	188/272/317	129	323	13	10	42%	10%	64	-0.8	137/242/255	118	246	15	5	46%	12%	34	-1.7
✕Ramiro Rodriguez 2021 · AA	23	42	40	50	48	204/285/300	96	281	8	18	28%	9%	64	-0.8	200/261/296	96	312	9	11	36%	7%	53	-1.5	146/208/210	64	238	7	8	40%	6%	4	-1.2
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	39→36	44→40	55→50	44	196/275/315	119	256	11	15	27%	7%	64	-0.8	212/300/304	92	266	8	14	22%	9%	72	-0.2	211/311/283	71	261	6	15	19%	10%	69	-0.2
✕Quincy Hamilton 2023 · AA	25	46→44	46→50	53→50	49	225/309/354	130	297	14	18	28%	9%	89	+0.9	206/283/353	147	268	17	12	28%	9%	78	+0.2	182/260/332	150	231	18	10	29%	9%	59	-0.6
✕Clay Fuller 2011 · AA	24	42→45	44→45	53→55	43	207/279/324	117	289	12	19	31%	8%	68	-0.5	222/272/356	134	296	16	14	29%	6%	72	-0.2	224/260/366	142	283	20	15	28%	4%	67	-0.3
✕Kaden Polcovich 2023 · AA	24	41	46→45	55	45	205/283/337	131	276	14	16	30%	8%	73	-0.1	203/285/327	124	281	12	18	30%	9%	72	-0.2	177/272/296	119	247	11	23	31%	10%	56	-0.5
✕Justin Toerner 2021 · AA	24	45→39	43→45	47→50	47	214/301/321	106	307	11	12	32%	10%	76	+0.1	187/278/296	109	286	12	9	36%	9%	62	-0.9	161/262/266	104	245	12	9	36%	10%	45	-1.0