Bryce Mayer

P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #163Pre-ArbFA 2033

Scout OFP46ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	AHOU	3	2	6	2.84	1.84	33.3%	13.3%	—	K 33.3% · BB 13.3% · FIP 1.97
2025	23	MIX3 levels	21	16	88	4.11	2.66	30.2%	7.3%	—	K 23.4% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.44
2026	24	MIX2 levels	24	21	102	3.53	3.89	33.1%	12.1%	—	K 27.3% · BB 12.5% · FIP 4.75
2027PROJ	25	MLBHOU	21	21	122	4.54	4.54	26.4%	10.6%	0.5
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBHOU	9	9	53	4.45	4.44	26.2%	10.2%	0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBHOU	13	13	76	4.45	4.46	25.8%	10.1%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$3M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff52Control50Command55FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 72%

CompsIsaac Coffey (age 24) · Riley Gowens (age 24) · Rorik Maltrud (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%26.4%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%15.8%

Proj IP122

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5055

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	2	6	30	10	4	0	67%	2.1	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.97	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	2	6	30	10	4	0	67%	2.1	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.97	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	2	6	30	10	4	0	67%	2.1	33.3%	13.3%	20.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.84	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	16	88	371	112	27	8	76%	4.2	23.4%	8.3%	15.1%	2.3%	4.11	3.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	16	88	371	112	27	8	76%	4.2	23.4%	8.3%	15.1%	2.3%	4.11	3.44	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	16	88	371	112	27	8	76%	4.2	30.2%	7.3%	22.9%	2.2%	4.11	2.66	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	102	423	140	51	16	88%	4.2	27.3%	12.5%	14.8%	4.3%	3.53	4.75	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	102	423	140	51	16	88%	4.2	27.3%	12.5%	14.8%	4.3%	3.53	4.75	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	102	423	140	51	16	88%	4.2	33.1%	12.1%	21.0%	3.8%	3.53	3.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	HOU	21	21	122	515	136	54	18	100%	5.8	26.4%	10.6%	15.8%	3.6%	4.54	4.54	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	HOU	20	20	122	515	135	53	18	100%	6.1	26.2%	10.2%	15.9%	3.5%	4.50	4.49	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	HOU	20	20	120	508	131	51	18	100%	6.0	25.8%	10.1%	15.7%	3.5%	4.50	4.51	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	HOU	19	19	117	492	126	50	18	100%	6.1	25.5%	10.2%	15.4%	3.6%	4.54	4.58	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	HOU	19	19	111	470	118	48	18	100%	5.9	25.2%	10.3%	14.9%	3.7%	4.63	4.70	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	105	442	110	47	17	100%	6.2	24.8%	10.6%	14.2%	3.9%	4.78	4.88	+0.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	98	412	101	45	17	100%	6.1	24.4%	11.0%	13.5%	4.1%	4.96	5.08	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	53	224	59	23	8	100%	5.9	26.2%	10.2%	15.9%	3.4%	4.45	4.44	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	76	321	83	32	11	100%	5.8	25.8%	10.1%	15.7%	3.4%	4.45	4.46	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	88	372	95	38	13	100%	5.9	25.5%	10.2%	15.4%	3.5%	4.49	4.53	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	91	384	97	40	14	100%	6.1	25.2%	10.3%	14.9%	3.6%	4.57	4.64	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	HOU	15	15	90	380	94	40	14	100%	6.0	24.8%	10.6%	14.2%	3.8%	4.72	4.82	+0.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	87	367	90	40	15	100%	6.2	24.4%	11.0%	13.5%	4.0%	4.90	5.02	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	81	485	2049	517	213	75	100%	6.0	25.3%	10.4%	14.8%	3.6%	4.61	4.29	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	213	88	31	100%	6.0	25.3%	10.4%	14.8%	3.6%	4.61	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		48	39	196	824	212	87	27	81%	4.1	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	3.3%	3.77	4.06	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	40	200	841	217	89	27	81%	4.1	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	3.3%	3.77	4.06	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Mayer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	26.4%	10.6%	3.6%	—	4.53	25.8%	15.7%	359	-0.01	—	—	—
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	81
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	80
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	79
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	78
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	78
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	77
Ty Madden R 2024 · 5.04 FIP	24	SP-	5.04	22.7%	8.8%	5.0%	.355	4.39	19.3%	9.7%	98	-0.65	4.39	458	77
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	77
Jaime Schultz R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	25	SP	3.67	25.9%	12.9%	2.1%	.326	3.88	28.2%	15.6%	126	+0.21	2.19	391	77
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	77
Mike Clevinger R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	22.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.290	3.19	28.1%	19.0%	482	-0.83	2.28	1,236	77
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP	4.67	26.6%	7.6%	5.2%	.272	4.47	19.9%	12.1%	172	-0.20	3.87	512	77
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	76
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	76
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	76
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	76
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	75
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	75
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	75
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	114	25.5%	10.4%	1.43	4.62
Frank Lange ('10-'13, 4 WAR*)	2.5	125	26.5%*	11.1%*	1.30*	4.20*
Eric Erickson ('14-'22, 2 WAR*)	4.1	164	25.8%*	11.1%*	1.49*	4.56*
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30
Tylor Megill ('25)	2.0	82	24.3%	9.1%	1.27	4.46
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45