Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | 10 | 7 | 24 | 124 | 25 | 30 | 3 | 70% | 2.4 | 13.7% | 30.2% | -16.5% | 3.8% | 7.40 | 7.85 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Miami | 10 | 7 | 24 | 124 | 25 | 30 | 3 | 70% | 2.4 | 20.2% | 24.2% | -4.0% | 2.4% | 7.40 | 6.35 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Miami | 3 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 2.3 | 38.7% | 12.9% | 25.8% | 6.5% | 9.00 | 5.01 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Miami | 3 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 2.3 | 38.7% | 12.9% | 25.8% | 6.5% | 9.00 | 5.10 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Miami | 5 | 5 | 10 | 43 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 1.9 | 18.6% | 14.0% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 4.66 | 3.30 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Miami | 5 | 5 | 10 | 43 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 1.9 | 18.6% | 14.0% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 4.66 | 3.31 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 15 | 11 | 26 | 128 | 43 | 31 | 4 | 73% | 1.8 | 22.8% | 30.3% | -7.4% | 4.4% | 8.89 | 7.41 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIA | 5 | 5 | 27 | 113 | 26 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.8% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.47 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 53 | 241 | 69 | 42 | 7 | — | — | 28.5% | 17.6% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 6.66 | 5.93 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIA | 5 | 5 | 28 | 119 | 28 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIA | 3 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 4.7 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 4.6 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 3.95 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 87 | 29 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 33 | 26 | 67 | 326 | 66 | 86 | 12 | 79% | 2.0 | 20.3% | 26.5% | -6.1% | 3.8% | 7.75 | 6.80 | -1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 98 | 77 | 200 | 968 | 197 | 256 | 36 | 79% | 2.0 | 20.3% | 26.5% | -6.1% | 3.8% | 7.75 | 6.80 | -3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yohanfer Santana (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.33 | 23.3% | 13.8% | 28 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Caleb Sampen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.46 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .358 | 3.46 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 139 | +0.00 | 3.03 | 213 | 83 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.32 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.07 | 3.96 | 247 | 81 |
| Clarke Schmidt R 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.53 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 13.1% | 108 | -0.30 | 2.76 | 537 | 81 |
| Rayner Urbaez R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.82 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .337 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 3.0% | 27 | -0.47 | 2.50 | 103 | 78 |
| Pedro Reyes R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.66 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .159 | 5.02 | 11.0% | 0.5% | 90 | +0.36 | 2.87 | 180 | 77 |
| Miguel Díaz R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .365 | 4.50 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 233 | +1.10 | 2.22 | 573 | 77 |
| Grant Holman R 2027 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.18 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 4.8% | .308 | 3.75 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 133 | -1.43 | 3.08 | 184 | 77 |
| Fraynel Nova R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.00 | 16.4% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .296 | 4.17 | 14.9% | 4.9% | 110 | +0.17 | 3.49 | 129 | 77 |
| Ryan Fernandez R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .357 | 3.52 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 53 | -0.92 | 2.97 | 335 | 77 |
| Jared Ruxer R 2029 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .333 | 4.68 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 240 | +0.52 | 3.38 | 270 | 76 |
| Carson Fulmer R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .259 | 4.87 | 17.1% | 4.0% | 364 | +0.83 | 3.84 | 879 | 76 |
| Chad Donato R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 76 |
| Zach Haake R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.13 | 16.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .205 | 4.50 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 121 | +0.37 | 3.40 | 272 | 75 |
| Marco Raya R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.83 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .238 | 4.84 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 230 | +1.01 | 3.83 | 358 | 74 |
| Chris Campos R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .364 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 11.7% | 237 | -0.29 | 4.43 | 306 | 74 |
| Joelvis Del Rosario R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .315 | 4.81 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 197 | +0.96 | 3.13 | 286 | 74 |
| Jeff Criswell R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.20 | 18.5% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .242 | 5.37 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 306 | +1.17 | 4.20 | 336 | 74 |
| Carson Rudd R 2028 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 73 |
| Michael Grove R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.46 | 24.3% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .409 | 5.62 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 176 | +1.16 | 3.54 | 377 | 73 |
| Tahnaj Thomas R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.06 | 23.0% | 15.6% | 3.5% | .268 | 5.63 | 17.0% | 2.7% | 61 | +0.57 | 3.73 | 214 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 1.15 | 4.42 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |