Manuel Genao

P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 150 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.9 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKDSL Miami	11	11	29	4.66	2.13	26.4%	7.0%	—	K 17.9% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.02
2025	19	MIX3 levels	17	7	56	4.20	3.26	20.9%	8.3%	—	K 14.6% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.35
2026	20	AMIA	26	21	108	3.67	2.71	25.2%	7.2%	—	K 18.7% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.68
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIA	26	26	128	4.56	4.56	18.8%	9.1%	0.5
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIA	13	13	66	4.34	4.27	20.3%	8.5%	0.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIA	19	19	102	4.21	4.13	21.3%	8.2%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command45FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 84%

CompsMiguel Almonte (age 22) · Nick Sinacola (age 22) · Max Gamboa (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%18.8%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP128

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$60M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD3545

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$23M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	29	129	34	9	1	100%	2.6	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	0.6%	4.66	3.02	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	29	129	34	9	1	100%	2.6	17.9%	8.7%	9.2%	0.6%	4.66	3.02	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	11	11	29	129	34	9	1	100%	2.6	26.4%	7.0%	19.4%	0.8%	4.66	2.13	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	7	56	254	53	21	4	41%	3.3	14.6%	9.1%	5.5%	2.4%	4.20	4.35	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	7	56	254	53	21	4	41%	3.3	14.6%	9.1%	5.5%	2.4%	4.20	4.35	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	7	56	254	53	21	4	41%	3.3	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	1.6%	4.20	3.26	—
2026	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	26	21	108	460	116	33	7	81%	4.2	18.7%	8.5%	10.2%	2.0%	3.67	3.68	—
2026	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	26	21	108	460	116	33	7	81%	4.2	18.7%	8.5%	10.2%	2.0%	3.67	3.68	—
2026	20	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	26	21	108	460	116	33	7	81%	4.2	25.2%	7.2%	18.0%	1.5%	3.67	2.71	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIA	26	26	128	540	101	49	15	100%	4.9	18.8%	9.1%	9.7%	2.8%	4.56	4.56	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	134	567	115	48	15	100%	5.2	20.3%	8.5%	11.8%	2.7%	4.41	4.34	+0.9
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	139	589	125	48	16	100%	5.4	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	2.7%	4.28	4.20	+1.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	143	603	132	48	16	100%	5.5	21.9%	7.9%	14.0%	2.7%	4.18	4.11	+1.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	25	25	145	611	136	48	16	100%	5.8	22.2%	7.8%	14.5%	2.7%	4.11	4.06	+1.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	145	611	137	47	16	100%	6.0	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	2.7%	4.06	4.03	+1.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	142	602	135	47	16	100%	5.9	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	2.7%	4.07	4.07	+1.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	138	584	130	46	16	100%	6.0	22.3%	8.0%	14.3%	2.8%	4.12	4.16	+1.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	132	557	123	46	17	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	3.0%	4.22	4.29	+0.9
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	124	524	114	44	17	100%	5.9	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	3.2%	4.37	4.47	+0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	116	489	104	43	17	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.4%	4.55	4.67	+0.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	107	452	94	42	16	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.2%	11.6%	3.7%	4.76	4.89	+0.0
2039	33	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	98	415	84	40	16	100%	6.1	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	3.9%	4.99	5.14	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	66	279	57	24	7	100%	5.1	20.3%	8.5%	11.8%	2.6%	4.34	4.27	+0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	102	431	92	35	11	100%	5.4	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	2.6%	4.21	4.13	+0.8
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	118	498	109	39	13	100%	5.6	21.9%	7.9%	14.0%	2.5%	4.11	4.04	+1.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	128	540	120	42	14	100%	5.8	22.2%	7.8%	14.5%	2.5%	4.04	3.99	+1.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	132	557	125	43	14	100%	6.0	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	2.5%	3.99	3.96	+1.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	132	557	125	44	14	100%	6.0	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	2.6%	4.00	4.00	+1.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	129	545	122	43	15	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.0%	14.3%	2.7%	4.04	4.08	+1.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	125	528	116	43	15	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	2.8%	4.14	4.21	+0.9
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	118	498	108	42	15	100%	5.9	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	3.0%	4.28	4.38	+0.6
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	110	464	99	41	15	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.2%	4.46	4.58	+0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	102	431	90	40	15	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.2%	11.6%	3.5%	4.66	4.79	+0.0
2039	33	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	93	393	80	38	15	100%	5.8	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	3.7%	4.88	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		232	232	1356	5724	1243	475	163	100%	5.8	21.7%	8.3%	13.4%	2.8%	4.23	3.88	+16.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	183	70	24	100%	5.8	21.7%	8.3%	13.4%	2.8%	4.23	3.88	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		54	39	193	843	146	73	16	72%	3.6	17.3%	8.7%	8.6%	1.9%	3.97	3.78	+10.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	40	200	875	152	76	17	72%	3.6	17.3%	8.7%	8.6%	1.9%	3.97	3.78	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Genao (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	18.8%	9.1%	2.8%	—	4.21	21.2%	13.0%	417	-0.35	—	—	—
Miguel Almonte R 2015 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP-	3.88	18.0%	10.1%	1.8%	.300	4.41	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.53	3.06	247	87
Nick Sinacola R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP-	4.44	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.05	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.39	3.56	357	87
Max Gamboa R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	17.3%	9.5%	2.1%	.334	3.99	26.5%	7.7%	61	+0.00	3.99	162	87
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	85
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.2%	6.4%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	84
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	84
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	84
Erik Swanson R 2016 · 3.56 FIP	22	SP-	3.56	17.1%	8.8%	1.5%	.316	4.11	20.9%	15.2%	298	+0.55	1.60	606	84
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	84
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	83
Adrian Houser R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	22	SP-	4.38	16.6%	8.8%	2.9%	.298	3.90	15.5%	7.4%	163	-0.48	3.45	1,221	83
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	83
Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	20	SP-	4.00	21.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.302	3.45	22.8%	12.9%	190	-0.55	2.65	289	83
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	83
Alex Eubanks R 2018 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	16.1%	7.3%	2.6%	.335	3.85	11.1%	3.0%	107	-0.27	3.85	219	83
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	83
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	82
Buck Farmer R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP-	4.41	16.4%	7.4%	3.2%	.307	4.01	19.6%	10.9%	370	-0.40	3.16	907	82
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.5	130	21.4%	8.4%	1.14	4.33
J.A. Happ ('21)	9.5	135	20.6%	8.3%	1.24	4.13
Aníbal Sánchez ('22)	10.1	126	20.6%	8.0%	1.06	4.06
Jake Arrieta ('21)	8.1	134	21.2%	8.5%	1.01	3.98
Todd Stottlemyre ('88-'02, 24 WAR*)	11.0	157	20.9%*	8.1%*	1.18*	4.26*
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*
Milt Wilcox ('70-'86, 16 WAR*)	10.1	126	20.1%*	8.9%*	1.23*	4.40*