Luis Porfirio — OGILVIE

Luis Porfirio P DSL Marlins

Age 21 LHP 6'0" / 155 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 19 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127135vR 143

ERA5.79

FIP5.79

K%21.7%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.7%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	4	2	11	60	9	13	1	50%	2.8	10.2%	27.1%	-16.9%	1.8%	9.00	6.67	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	4	2	11	60	9	13	1	50%	2.8	15.0%	21.7%	-6.7%	1.7%	9.00	6.19	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	11	4	24	109	27	22	0	36%	2.2	16.8%	25.2%	-8.4%	0.0%	4.18	4.87	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	11	4	24	109	27	22	0	36%	2.2	16.8%	25.2%	-8.4%	0.0%	4.18	4.87	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	11	4	24	109	27	22	0	36%	2.2	24.8%	20.2%	4.6%	0.0%	4.18	3.61	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	20	1	37	180	55	39	3	5%	1.8	20.8%	27.1%	-6.3%	2.3%	5.15	6.06	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	20	1	37	180	55	39	3	5%	1.8	20.8%	27.1%	-6.3%	2.3%	5.15	6.06	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	20	1	37	180	55	39	3	5%	1.8	30.6%	21.7%	8.9%	1.7%	5.15	4.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIA	18	0	19	80	17	16	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	20.0%	1.7%	2.9%	5.79	5.79	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	33	0	35	146	33	24	4	0%	1.0	22.8%	16.6%	6.1%	2.9%	5.40	5.24	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	16	0	17	72	16	12	2	0%	1.1	22.8%	16.6%	6.1%	2.9%	5.40	5.24	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	72	16	12	2	0%	1.1	22.8%	16.6%	6.1%	2.9%	5.40	4.86	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	141	24	0%	1.1	22.8%	16.6%	6.1%	2.9%	5.40	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		35	7	71	349	62	93	5	20%	2.0	17.7%	26.5%	-8.8%	1.5%	5.43	5.79	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	20	200	979	173	259	15	20%	2.0	17.7%	26.5%	-8.8%	1.5%	5.43	5.79	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Porfirio (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.79	21.7%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.24	22.8%	6.1%	35	-0.55	—	—	—
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	82
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	81
Yenfri Sosa L 2024 · 6.08 FIP	20	SU	6.08	19.0%	21.3%	3.4%	.309	4.41	21.7%	7.4%	38	-1.67	2.49	128	80
Roberto Medina L 2024 · 5.29 FIP	19	SW	5.29	18.5%	19.6%	2.3%	.254	5.91	15.1%	-2.7%	45	+0.62	3.87	109	80
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	79
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	79
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	79
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	79
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	79
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	79
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	288	79
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	78
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	78
Alex Robinson L 2016 · 5.59 FIP	21	SU	5.59	22.4%	26.9%	1.8%	.243	4.03	23.8%	8.8%	90	-1.56	3.69	135	78
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	78
Blake Townsend L 2022 · 5.83 FIP	21	SU	5.83	18.3%	17.5%	3.8%	.170	3.73	18.1%	8.4%	167	-2.10	3.34	305	77
Peter Bonilla L 2024 · 4.63 FIP	19	SU	4.63	20.9%	18.3%	1.8%	.250	6.24	19.5%	-5.4%	51	+1.61	4.27	134	77
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	76
Felix Cabrera L 2023 · 4.62 FIP	21	SU	4.62	17.9%	18.6%	1.2%	.258	5.43	13.8%	-5.3%	62	+0.81	3.96	132	76
Deyer Zapata L 2024 · 5.79 FIP	20	SU	5.79	18.0%	15.3%	4.1%	.319	3.77	16.2%	7.0%	15	-2.02	3.77	130	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	22.4%	17.8%	1.12	5.54
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51