Keeler Morfe — OGILVIE

Keeler Morfe P Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 21 RHP 5'8" / 161 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 81 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.90

FIP5.90

K%20.2%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.2%

ROS IP81

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4055

CMD2020

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	9	9	26	125	25	21	0	100%	2.9	13.6%	21.0%	-7.4%	0.0%	7.01	4.61	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	9	9	26	125	25	21	0	100%	2.9	20.0%	16.8%	3.2%	0.0%	7.01	3.61	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	33	140	49	17	0	100%	3.0	24.3%	14.7%	9.5%	0.0%	2.76	2.92	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	33	140	49	17	0	100%	3.0	24.3%	14.7%	9.5%	0.0%	2.76	2.92	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	33	140	49	17	0	100%	3.0	35.0%	12.1%	22.9%	0.0%	2.76	1.66	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	22	118	24	32	0	83%	1.8	10.3%	32.9%	-22.6%	0.0%	7.48	6.40	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	22	118	24	32	0	83%	1.8	10.3%	32.9%	-22.6%	0.0%	7.48	6.40	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	22	118	24	32	0	83%	1.8	20.3%	27.1%	-6.8%	0.0%	7.48	5.32	—
2026	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	1	1	0	6	0	3	0	100%	—	0.0%	50.0%	-50.0%	0.0%	—	9.43	—
2026	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	1	1	0	6	0	3	0	100%	—	0.0%	50.0%	-50.0%	0.0%	—	9.43	—
2026	20	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	1	1	0	6	0	3	0	100%	—	0.0%	50.0%	-50.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	BAL	15	15	81	342	69	68	10	100%	5.4	20.2%	20.0%	0.2%	2.9%	5.90	5.90	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	121	511	112	89	15	100%	5.5	21.9%	17.3%	4.5%	2.9%	5.53	5.39	-0.7
2029	23	MLB MLE	BAL	29	29	160	673	154	105	19	100%	5.5	22.9%	15.7%	7.2%	2.8%	5.23	5.08	-0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	BAL	31	31	175	739	174	108	21	100%	5.6	23.5%	14.6%	8.9%	2.8%	5.00	4.88	+0.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	BAL	30	30	177	748	178	105	21	100%	5.9	23.8%	14.1%	9.8%	2.8%	4.86	4.78	+0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	BAL	30	30	177	748	180	105	21	100%	5.9	24.0%	14.0%	10.0%	2.8%	4.80	4.76	+0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	BAL	29	29	174	737	177	104	21	100%	6.0	24.0%	14.1%	9.9%	2.8%	4.80	4.79	+0.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	BAL	28	28	169	715	171	102	21	100%	6.0	23.9%	14.2%	9.7%	2.9%	4.85	4.88	+0.0
2035	29	MLB MLE	BAL	27	27	162	683	162	99	21	100%	6.0	23.7%	14.5%	9.2%	3.1%	4.94	5.01	-0.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	BAL	25	25	152	642	150	95	21	100%	6.1	23.3%	14.8%	8.5%	3.3%	5.09	5.19	-0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	59	249	54	43	7	100%	5.4	21.9%	17.3%	4.5%	3.0%	5.60	5.46	-0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	BAL	21	21	116	490	112	77	14	100%	5.5	22.9%	15.7%	7.2%	2.9%	5.30	5.15	-0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	BAL	26	26	145	612	144	90	18	100%	5.6	23.5%	14.6%	8.9%	2.9%	5.07	4.95	+0.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	BAL	27	27	156	659	157	93	19	100%	5.8	23.8%	14.1%	9.8%	2.9%	4.93	4.85	+0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	BAL	27	27	162	684	164	96	20	100%	6.0	24.0%	14.0%	10.0%	2.9%	4.87	4.83	+0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	BAL	27	27	162	684	164	96	20	100%	6.0	24.0%	14.1%	9.9%	3.0%	4.87	4.86	+0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	BAL	26	26	158	667	160	95	20	100%	6.1	23.9%	14.2%	9.7%	3.1%	4.92	4.95	+0.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	BAL	26	26	154	650	154	94	21	100%	5.9	23.7%	14.5%	9.2%	3.2%	5.02	5.09	-0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	BAL	24	24	144	608	142	90	21	100%	6.0	23.3%	14.8%	8.5%	3.4%	5.17	5.27	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		216	216	1257	5309	1253	774	162	100%	5.8	23.6%	14.6%	9.0%	3.0%	5.03	4.63	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	199	123	26	100%	5.8	23.6%	14.6%	9.0%	3.0%	5.03	4.63	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		32	30	80	383	63	86	0	94%	2.5	16.5%	22.4%	-5.9%	0.0%	5.40	4.54	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	75	200	958	158	214	0	94%	2.5	16.5%	22.4%	-5.9%	0.0%	5.40	4.54	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keeler Morfe (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.90	20.2%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.09	22.8%	7.1%	456	-0.81	—	—	—
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	82
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	79
Gage Stanifer R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	20	SP	5.65	17.2%	21.4%	2.4%	.318	3.96	26.2%	11.6%	199	-1.69	2.85	301	77
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	77
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	77
Nolan Perry R 2024 · 4.88 FIP	20	SP	4.88	20.4%	22.2%	1.2%	.303	3.62	27.9%	16.8%	83	-1.26	3.62	167	77
Marlon Nieves R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	19	SP	5.63	17.9%	20.0%	2.8%	.300	4.19	18.6%	1.2%	134	-1.44	3.82	187	76
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	76
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	75
Jose Diaz R 2021 · 5.27 FIP	21	SP	5.27	16.5%	17.5%	2.5%	.357	5.01	17.6%	0.9%	89	-0.26	3.91	189	75
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	75
Mason Denaburg R 2022 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	16.3%	16.4%	2.1%	.278	5.84	13.1%	-7.7%	92	+0.89	4.48	151	74
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	74
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	73
Noble Meyer R 2024 · 5.82 FIP	19	SP	5.82	20.0%	20.0%	3.4%	.198	4.31	18.7%	3.9%	65	-1.51	4.31	139	73
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	73
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	73
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	73
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.62	17.1%	7.4%	343	-0.97	4.16	409	72
José Leclerc R 2015 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP	5.02	16.8%	17.0%	2.1%	.304	3.15	30.0%	15.1%	184	-1.87	1.48	527	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.7	155	23.3%	15.0%	1.12	5.04
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44
Daniel Cabrera ('09)	4.5	149	16.7%	12.9%	0.93	5.10
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56
Russ Ortiz ('10)	8.3	151	16.3%	11.8%	0.97	4.51
Hideo Nomo ('08)	9.9	180	22.7%	10.7%	1.14	4.24