Keeler Morfe
P
Delmarva Shorebirds
Age 20
RHP
5'8" / 161 lbs
A
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.69
FIP4.69
K%21.9%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%9.8%
ROS IP13
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | 9 | 9 | 26 | 125 | 25 | 21 | 0 | 100% | 2.9 | 13.6% | 21.0% | -7.4% | 0.0% | 7.01 | 4.61 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Black | 9 | 9 | 26 | 125 | 25 | 21 | 0 | 100% | 2.9 | 20.0% | 16.8% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 7.01 | 3.61 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 33 | 140 | 49 | 17 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 24.3% | 14.7% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 2.76 | 2.92 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 33 | 140 | 49 | 17 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 35.0% | 12.1% | 22.9% | 0.0% | 2.76 | 1.66 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 10 | 22 | 118 | 24 | 32 | 0 | 83% | 1.8 | 10.3% | 32.9% | -22.6% | 0.0% | 7.48 | 6.40 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 10 | 22 | 118 | 24 | 32 | 0 | 83% | 1.8 | 20.3% | 27.1% | -6.8% | 0.0% | 7.48 | 5.32 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 100% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | BAL | 2 | 2 | 13 | 54 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.69 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.9% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.69 | 4.69 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 13 | 60 | 12 | 10 | 1 | — | — | 19.7% | 15.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 7.50 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | BAL | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | BAL | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.10 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 102 | 20 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 32 | 30 | 80 | 383 | 63 | 86 | 0 | 94% | 2.5 | 16.5% | 22.4% | -5.9% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 4.54 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 80 | 75 | 200 | 958 | 158 | 214 | 0 | 94% | 2.5 | 16.5% | 22.4% | -5.9% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keeler Morfe (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.48 | 22.5% | 11.4% | 20 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Carson Fulmer R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .259 | 4.87 | 17.1% | 4.0% | 364 | +0.83 | 3.84 | 879 | 85 |
| Rayner Urbaez R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.82 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .337 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 3.0% | 27 | -0.47 | 2.50 | 103 | 83 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.32 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.07 | 3.96 | 247 | 82 |
| Jharold Clemente R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.08 | 17.5% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .258 | 5.35 | 13.3% | 4.3% | 92 | +0.27 | 3.91 | 116 | 81 |
| Chad Donato R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 79 |
| Jeff Criswell R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.20 | 18.5% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .242 | 5.37 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 306 | +1.17 | 4.20 | 336 | 78 |
| Marco Raya R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.83 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .238 | 4.84 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 230 | +1.01 | 3.83 | 358 | 77 |
| Jared Ruxer R 2029 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .333 | 4.68 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 240 | +0.52 | 3.38 | 270 | 77 |
| Levi Wells R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.32 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .360 | 3.85 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 132 | -0.47 | 3.70 | 192 | 77 |
| Clarke Schmidt R 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.53 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 13.1% | 108 | -0.30 | 2.76 | 537 | 77 |
| Victor Mederos R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.03 | 15.6% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 5.29 | 16.5% | 5.4% | 301 | +0.26 | 4.19 | 360 | 76 |
| Dane Acker R 2029 · 5.44 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.44 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 3.7% | .284 | 4.44 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 215 | -1.00 | 4.23 | 257 | 76 |
| Ulices Campos R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.60 | 17.9% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .253 | 5.16 | 12.0% | 1.0% | 65 | +0.56 | 4.13 | 153 | 76 |
| Zach Haake R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.13 | 16.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .205 | 4.50 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 121 | +0.37 | 3.40 | 272 | 76 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2027 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 76 |
| Tahnaj Thomas R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.06 | 23.0% | 15.6% | 3.5% | .268 | 5.63 | 17.0% | 2.7% | 61 | +0.57 | 3.73 | 214 | 76 |
| Grayson Long R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.38 | 17.6% | 14.7% | 1.7% | .346 | 3.86 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 192 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 211 | 75 |
| Deyvis Julian R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.54 | 15.2% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .241 | 4.74 | 11.2% | -3.5% | 48 | +0.20 | 3.44 | 116 | 75 |
| Darren Bowen R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.93 | 19.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .236 | 5.29 | 15.2% | 4.9% | 205 | +1.36 | 3.91 | 261 | 75 |
| Jimmy Lambert R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.99 | 16.2% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .394 | 4.06 | 17.2% | 9.0% | 305 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 526 | 75 |