Manuel Osorio

P ACL Guardians

Age 21 LHP 5'10" / 170 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKDSL CLE Mendo…	11	10	47	1.71	2.87	23.2%	13.5%	—	K 15.8% · BB 16.9% · FIP 3.90
2025	19	ROKCLE	11	6	37	5.11	3.86	21.6%	14.8%	—	K 14.7% · BB 18.5% · FIP 4.83
2026	20	MIX2 levels	23	3	46	4.50	4.30	27.9%	12.7%	—	K 19.4% · BB 15.7% · FIP 6.02
2027PROJ	21	MLBCLE	25	0	26	5.41	5.41	20.3%	15.6%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBCLE	20	0	21	5.12	4.99	21.6%	13.4%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsColby Langford (age 22) · Spencer Giesting (age 21) · Joe Adametz (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120128vR 136

ERA5.41

FIP5.41

K%20.3%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%4.7%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Red	11	9	38	162	37	23	4	82%	3.5	15.5%	17.7%	-2.2%	1.4%	4.50	4.83	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Guardians Red	11	9	38	162	37	23	4	82%	3.5	22.8%	14.2%	8.6%	2.5%	4.50	4.34	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	10	47	185	43	25	0	91%	4.3	15.8%	16.9%	-1.1%	0.0%	1.71	3.90	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	10	47	185	43	25	0	91%	4.3	15.8%	16.9%	-1.1%	0.0%	1.71	3.90	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	10	47	185	43	25	0	91%	4.3	23.2%	13.5%	9.7%	0.0%	1.71	2.87	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	11	6	37	176	38	26	2	55%	3.4	14.7%	18.5%	-3.8%	1.1%	5.11	4.83	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	11	6	37	176	38	26	2	55%	3.4	14.7%	18.5%	-3.8%	1.1%	5.11	4.83	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	11	6	37	176	38	26	2	55%	3.4	21.6%	14.8%	6.8%	1.1%	5.11	3.86	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	3	46	204	57	26	7	13%	2.0	19.4%	15.7%	3.8%	4.7%	4.50	6.02	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	3	46	204	57	26	7	13%	2.0	19.4%	15.7%	3.8%	4.7%	4.50	6.02	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	3	46	204	57	26	7	13%	2.0	27.9%	12.7%	15.2%	3.4%	4.50	4.30	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	CLE	25	0	26	110	22	17	3	0%	1.0	20.3%	15.6%	4.7%	3.1%	5.41	5.41	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CLE	41	0	44	184	40	25	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.4%	8.2%	3.0%	5.12	4.99	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	CLE	20	0	21	89	19	12	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.4%	8.2%	3.0%	5.12	4.99	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	0	21	90	20	12	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.4%	8.2%	3.0%	5.12	4.61	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	112	28	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.4%	8.2%	3.0%	5.12	4.61	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		56	28	168	727	120	124	14	50%	3.0	16.5%	17.1%	-0.6%	1.9%	3.85	4.93	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	33	200	864	142	148	17	50%	3.0	16.5%	17.1%	-0.6%	1.9%	3.85	4.93	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Osorio (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.41	20.3%	15.6%	3.1%	—	4.99	21.6%	8.2%	44	-0.42	—	—	—
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	82
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.30	19.0%	8.0%	394	-1.50	3.58	460	80
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	80
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	78
Felipe De La Cruz L 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SP-	4.65	21.7%	14.5%	2.8%	.387	3.82	21.5%	10.1%	278	-0.83	3.11	397	77
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	77
Brayan De Paula L 2019 · 6.00 FIP	20	SW	6.00	16.9%	16.4%	4.1%	.272	4.58	20.9%	6.1%	59	-1.42	3.57	243	76
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	76
Alex Winkelman L 2016 · 4.44 FIP	22	SW	4.44	15.8%	14.7%	1.5%	.344	3.77	18.8%	6.5%	181	-0.67	3.40	246	76
Holden Laws L 2021 · 6.35 FIP	21	SP-	6.35	19.3%	15.6%	5.3%	.306	4.71	17.5%	7.1%	133	-1.64	2.96	190	76
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	75
Develson Aria L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	21	SP-	4.32	19.9%	12.2%	2.5%	.346	6.47	16.7%	-11.9%	47	+2.15	4.32	137	75
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	75
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	74
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	74
Luichi Casilla L 2024 · 4.62 FIP	19	SP-	4.62	22.4%	20.2%	1.6%	.372	2.62	25.7%	16.1%	34	-2.00	2.62	133	74
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	74
Roberto Medina L 2024 · 5.29 FIP	19	SW	5.29	18.5%	19.6%	2.3%	.254	5.91	15.1%	-2.7%	45	+0.62	3.87	109	74
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	73
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	35	21.1%	14.2%	1.16	5.23
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*