Jarol Baéz — OGILVIE

Jarol Baéz P FCL Cardinals

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 159151vR 143

ERA6.62

FIP6.62

K%20.0%

BB%25.6%

K-BB%-5.7%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	12	0	13	72	15	15	0	0%	1.1	14.2%	26.0%	-11.9%	0.0%	7.62	5.20	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	12	0	13	72	15	15	0	0%	1.1	14.2%	26.0%	-11.9%	0.0%	7.62	5.20	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	12	0	13	72	15	15	0	0%	1.1	20.8%	20.8%	0.0%	0.0%	7.62	4.25	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	15	0	22	97	16	21	1	0%	1.5	11.2%	27.1%	-15.8%	1.1%	2.05	6.19	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	15	0	22	97	16	21	1	0%	1.5	11.2%	27.1%	-15.8%	1.1%	2.05	6.19	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	15	0	22	97	16	21	1	0%	1.5	16.5%	21.6%	-5.2%	1.0%	2.05	5.10	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	14	2	23	114	28	29	0	14%	1.6	16.7%	31.8%	-15.1%	0.0%	5.16	5.72	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	14	2	23	114	28	29	0	14%	1.6	16.7%	31.8%	-15.1%	0.0%	5.16	5.72	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	14	2	23	114	28	29	0	14%	1.6	24.6%	25.4%	-0.9%	0.0%	5.16	4.47	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	18	0	18	100	23	21	6	0%	1.0	15.6%	26.2%	-10.6%	8.4%	11.50	9.71	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	18	0	18	100	23	21	6	0%	1.0	15.6%	26.2%	-10.6%	8.4%	11.50	9.71	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	STL	18	0	18	100	23	21	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	21.0%	2.0%	6.0%	11.50	7.11	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	STL	20	0	21	90	19	19	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	21.0%	-0.2%	2.8%	6.11	5.93	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	STL	10	0	11	46	10	10	1	0%	1.1	20.8%	21.0%	-0.2%	2.8%	6.11	5.93	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	44	9	9	1	0%	1.1	20.8%	21.0%	-0.2%	2.8%	6.11	5.55	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	171	171	19	0%	1.1	20.8%	21.0%	-0.2%	2.8%	6.11	5.55	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		59	2	76	383	56	108	9	3%	1.3	14.6%	28.1%	-13.5%	2.5%	6.19	6.78	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	5	200	1012	147	284	25	3%	1.3	14.6%	28.1%	-13.5%	2.5%	6.19	6.78	-3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jarol Baéz (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.62	20.0%	25.6%	2.9%	—	5.93	20.8%	-0.2%	21	-0.69	—	—	—
Adrian Rodriguez R 2021 · 6.92 FIP	20	SU	6.92	23.1%	34.0%	2.7%	.368	5.46	23.1%	-1.6%	93	-1.46	2.43	148	87
Michell Miliano R 2019 · 7.22 FIP	19	SU	7.22	22.2%	30.4%	3.9%	.279	5.47	24.3%	-0.4%	76	-1.75	4.42	205	86
Samuel Fabian R 2023 · 6.61 FIP	20	SU	6.61	16.8%	27.4%	2.7%	.352	4.33	17.2%	4.8%	64	-2.28	4.21	120	86
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	84
Rael Santos R 2022 · 7.36 FIP	21	SU	7.36	17.1%	32.7%	2.8%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	122	84
Erian Rodriguez R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	20	SU	5.51	16.2%	19.8%	2.3%	.378	4.16	16.2%	3.6%	241	-1.35	3.81	287	84
Edgar Isea R 2023 · 6.17 FIP	20	SU	6.17	24.2%	27.6%	2.9%	.310	4.90	20.6%	-4.4%	76	-1.27	4.50	162	83
Christian Rodriguez R 2023 · 5.51 FIP	18	SU	5.51	15.5%	21.4%	1.8%	.268	4.93	17.0%	1.1%	169	-0.58	4.34	183	83
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	83
Bryce McGowan R 2022 · 5.90 FIP	22	SU	5.90	17.0%	22.9%	2.4%	.368	4.36	20.6%	6.6%	145	-1.54	3.71	178	83
Jeison Pena R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	20	SU	5.53	16.3%	20.9%	2.1%	.289	4.36	13.9%	-2.5%	43	-1.17	3.40	161	83
Andrew Baker R 2021 · 7.36 FIP	21	SU	7.36	22.3%	37.8%	2.5%	.158	4.66	24.7%	6.7%	135	-2.70	3.44	256	83
Brendan Hardy R 2021 · 6.99 FIP	21	SU	6.99	15.9%	33.1%	1.9%	.324	3.67	22.9%	7.9%	83	-3.32	2.54	137	83
Ryan Harbin R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	20	SU	5.47	14.4%	18.9%	2.2%	.317	4.19	23.9%	8.1%	156	-1.28	3.84	185	83
Pedro Peralta R 2023 · 6.77 FIP	17	SU	6.77	15.3%	22.9%	3.8%	.300	6.07	14.3%	-7.4%	106	-0.70	5.13	121	82
Madison Jeffrey R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	22	SU	5.47	19.9%	25.3%	1.5%	.252	5.08	17.6%	-9.7%	107	-0.39	4.65	168	82
Danny Hilario R 2023 · 5.65 FIP	18	SU	5.65	17.8%	19.4%	2.9%	.241	3.68	17.2%	6.9%	68	-1.97	3.58	107	82
Anyelo Ovando R 2021 · 5.68 FIP	20	SU	5.68	17.6%	25.0%	1.6%	.200	4.32	20.5%	2.0%	110	-1.36	4.03	165	82
Juan Arnaud R 2023 · 6.40 FIP	20	SU	6.40	16.1%	24.2%	2.9%	.196	4.49	21.1%	4.5%	132	-1.91	3.43	184	81
Jose G. Gonzalez R 2022 · 5.86 FIP	20	SU	5.86	13.8%	18.3%	2.9%	.357	4.91	14.6%	-1.0%	108	-0.95	3.63	165	81