Samuel Fabian — OGILVIE

Samuel Fabian P FCL Cardinals

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 177 lbs ROK

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%19.9%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%5.9%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Red	14	2	18	97	10	21	1	14%	1.3	7.0%	27.1%	-20.1%	1.4%	9.68	6.68	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Red	14	2	18	97	10	21	1	14%	1.3	10.3%	21.6%	-11.3%	1.0%	9.68	6.27	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	14	0	21	100	16	17	0	0%	1.5	10.9%	21.3%	-10.4%	0.0%	6.53	4.87	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	14	0	21	100	16	17	0	0%	1.5	16.0%	17.0%	-1.0%	0.0%	6.53	4.02	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	16	0	18	105	26	23	2	0%	1.1	16.8%	27.4%	-10.5%	2.7%	10.00	6.61	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	16	0	18	105	26	23	2	0%	1.1	16.8%	27.4%	-10.5%	2.7%	10.00	6.61	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	16	0	18	105	26	23	2	0%	1.1	24.8%	21.9%	2.9%	1.9%	10.00	5.49	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	21	0	36	148	43	11	3	0%	1.7	19.8%	9.3%	10.5%	2.9%	1.51	4.21	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	21	0	36	148	43	11	3	0%	1.7	19.8%	9.3%	10.5%	2.9%	1.51	4.21	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	21	0	36	148	43	11	3	0%	1.7	29.1%	7.4%	21.6%	2.0%	1.51	2.71	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	1	36	183	35	30	1	6%	2.1	13.9%	16.4%	-2.5%	0.9%	6.94	4.49	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	1	36	183	35	30	1	6%	2.1	13.9%	16.4%	-2.5%	0.9%	6.94	4.49	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	1	36	183	35	30	1	6%	2.1	19.1%	16.4%	2.7%	0.5%	6.94	4.01	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	STL	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	19.9%	14.0%	5.9%	2.9%	5.17	5.17	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	32	0	34	141	30	17	4	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.4%	8.5%	2.9%	4.96	4.87	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	STL	13	0	14	59	12	7	2	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.4%	8.5%	2.9%	4.96	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	14	60	13	7	2	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.4%	8.5%	2.9%	4.96	4.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	98	28	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.4%	8.5%	2.9%	4.96	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		82	3	128	633	90	120	10	4%	1.6	14.2%	19.0%	-4.7%	1.6%	6.17	5.17	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	5	200	986	140	187	16	4%	1.6	14.2%	19.0%	-4.7%	1.6%	6.17	5.17	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Fabian (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	19.9%	14.0%	2.9%	—	4.87	20.9%	8.5%	34	-0.30	—	—	—
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	93
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	92
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	91
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	90
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	89
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	88
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	87
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	87
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	86
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	86
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	86
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.80	21.5%	10.0%	115	-0.58	4.73	183	86
David Ellingson R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	23	SU	4.15	20.5%	14.6%	1.7%	.362	3.52	18.0%	10.2%	105	-0.63	3.43	150	86
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	86
Michael Hobbs R 2022 · 4.54 FIP	23	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.9%	2.3%	.232	4.48	20.1%	3.9%	158	-0.06	4.14	184	86
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	85
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	85
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	85
Kieran Lovegrove R 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.9%	12.6%	3.2%	.273	4.46	19.3%	4.5%	76	-0.46	3.79	215	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	20.6%	12.9%	1.12	5.03
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78