Bailey Dees — OGILVIE

Bailey Dees P Somerset Patriots

+0.5 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'8" / 247 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2026

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.9%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%10.2%

IP94

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2026

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	22	ROK	FCL Yankees	3	1	2	13	5	1	2	—	—	—	7.71	—	—
2022	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	34	0	57	238	70	26	4	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	3.30	4.27	+0.4
2023	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	42	0	62	254	77	27	3	23.6%	12.0%	1.4%	2.60	3.41	+1.1
2024	25	AA	Somerset Patriots	27	26	138	583	145	54	19	20.1%	10.2%	3.8%	4.25	4.79	+0.8
2025	26	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	35	10	85	362	99	45	7	21.9%	14.4%	2.4%	3.59	4.41	+0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	AA	Somerset Patriots	2	0	4	14	3	5	0	—	—	—	4.91	—	—
ROS	27	MLB	NYY	17	17	94	399	87	47	12	21.9%	11.7%	2.9%	4.72	4.72	+0.6
2026 Total	27	MLB	NYY	—	—	98	413	90	52	12	21.9%	12.6%	2.8%	4.73	4.54	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	NYY	17	17	95	402	88	46	12	21.9%	11.4%	3.0%	4.68	4.69	+0.6
2028	29	MLB	NYY	17	17	93	393	85	44	12	21.8%	11.2%	3.0%	4.68	4.71	+0.6
2029	30	MLB	NYY	16	16	90	381	82	42	12	21.6%	11.1%	3.1%	4.71	4.75	+0.5
2030	31	MLB	NYY	16	16	87	367	78	41	11	21.3%	11.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.81	+0.4
2031	32	MLB	NYY	15	15	84	353	74	40	11	21.1%	11.3%	3.2%	4.84	4.90	+0.2
2032	33	MLB	NYY	14	14	80	337	77	36	11	22.8%	10.7%	3.3%	4.77	4.72	+0.4
2033	34	MLB	NYY	14	14	76	320	72	35	11	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	4.81	4.83	+0.2
2034	35	MLB	NYY	13	13	71	301	66	33	11	22.0%	11.1%	3.5%	4.90	4.95	+0.1
2035	36	MLB	NYY	12	12	67	282	61	32	10	21.6%	11.4%	3.6%	5.01	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			143	37	349	1464	316	179	42	21.6%	12.2%	2.9%	3.67	4.42	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—			82	21	200	840	181	103	24	21.6%	12.2%	2.9%	3.67	4.42	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bailey Dees (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	21.9%	11.7%	2.9%	—	4.72	21.7%	10.5%	278	-0.00	—	—	—
Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP-	3.98	18.4%	8.9%	2.4%	.315	5.24	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.26	3.98	115	85
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.72	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.12	3.22	221	84
Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	27	SP-	5.00	22.3%	13.6%	3.8%	.325	4.04	19.1%	7.8%	91	-0.96	4.04	448	84
Trent Sellers R 2024 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP-	4.51	21.8%	13.3%	2.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	178	83
Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP-	3.76	25.1%	11.8%	2.3%	.275	3.86	22.1%	11.7%	73	+0.10	3.76	180	82
Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	27	SP-	3.80	18.8%	8.3%	2.3%	.325	4.62	12.4%	6.9%	279	+0.82	3.80	500	82
Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP	27	SP-	4.89	21.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.327	3.06	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.83	2.32	1,443	82
Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP-	4.38	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	250	81
Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.43 FIP	26	SP-	4.43	17.5%	10.9%	2.6%	.393	4.26	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.17	4.26	166	80
J.P. France R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	27	SP-	4.46	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.57	18.7%	8.6%	205	+0.11	4.07	530	80
Taylor Jungmann R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	27	SP-	3.86	18.8%	11.1%	1.7%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	435	80
Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	27	SP-	4.05	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.368	4.33	21.5%	10.4%	79	+0.28	2.95	492	79
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP-	4.46	16.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	195	79
Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP-	4.21	24.4%	13.2%	2.7%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	152	78
Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	5.02	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.60	4.42	200	78
Jose Pina R 2028 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	16.9%	9.2%	3.7%	.231	3.67	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.19	3.65	424	78
Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP-	4.64	18.8%	8.2%	3.8%	.327	3.81	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.83	3.39	316	78
Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP	26	SP-	4.23	16.1%	8.3%	2.6%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.91	3.32	252	77
Tim Atherton R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP-	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	77
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	28	SP-	4.06	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.65	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.59	4.06	203	77

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.7M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$7M
Totals		$11M		$8M	-$3M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.