Bailey Dees — OGILVIE

Bailey Dees P Somerset Patriots

Age 27 RHP 6'8" / 247 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION8 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%21.1%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	3	1	2	13	5	1	2	33%	0.8	38.5%	7.7%	30.8%	15.4%	7.71	9.27	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	3	1	2	13	5	1	2	33%	0.8	38.5%	7.7%	30.8%	15.4%	7.71	11.24	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	57	238	70	26	4	0%	1.7	21.3%	13.2%	8.2%	2.4%	3.30	4.26	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	57	238	70	26	4	0%	1.7	29.4%	10.9%	18.5%	1.7%	3.30	2.93	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	62	254	77	27	3	0%	1.5	23.6%	12.0%	11.6%	1.4%	2.60	3.41	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	62	254	77	27	3	0%	1.5	23.6%	12.0%	11.6%	1.4%	2.60	3.41	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	62	254	77	27	3	0%	1.5	30.3%	10.6%	19.7%	1.2%	2.60	2.55	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	27	26	138	583	145	54	19	96%	5.1	20.1%	10.2%	10.0%	3.8%	4.25	4.78	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	27	26	138	583	145	54	19	96%	5.1	20.1%	10.2%	10.0%	3.8%	4.25	4.78	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	27	26	138	583	145	54	19	96%	5.1	24.9%	9.3%	15.6%	3.3%	4.25	3.96	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	10	85	362	99	45	7	29%	2.4	21.6%	13.8%	7.8%	2.4%	3.59	4.34	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	10	85	362	99	45	7	29%	2.4	21.6%	13.8%	7.8%	2.4%	3.59	4.34	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	10	85	362	99	45	7	29%	2.4	27.3%	12.4%	14.9%	1.9%	3.59	3.43	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	4	0	8	30	6	6	0	0%	2.1	—	—	—	—	2.16	—	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	4	0	8	30	6	6	0	0%	2.1	—	—	—	—	2.16	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	NYY	4	0	8	30	6	6	0	0%	2.1	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.16	3.94	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	NYY	6	0	6	27	6	3	1	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.4%	8.7%	2.9%	4.87	4.87	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	15	57	12	9	1	—	—	20.5%	16.4%	4.1%	1.4%	3.33	2.10	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYY	146	0	153	646	136	78	19	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.1%	8.9%	3.0%	4.86	4.89	-0.6
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYY	139	0	146	617	129	74	19	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.0%	8.9%	3.2%	4.91	4.97	-0.7
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYY	131	0	137	580	119	70	19	0%	1.0	20.6%	12.1%	8.5%	3.4%	5.02	5.11	-0.9
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYY	54	0	57	241	51	29	7	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.1%	8.9%	3.0%	4.86	4.89	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYY	77	0	81	342	71	41	11	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.0%	8.9%	3.2%	4.91	4.97	-0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYY	89	0	93	393	81	47	13	0%	1.0	20.6%	12.1%	8.5%	3.4%	5.02	5.11	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		221	0	232	981	204	118	31	0%	1.1	20.8%	12.1%	8.7%	3.2%	4.94	4.63	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	102	27	0%	1.1	20.8%	12.1%	8.7%	3.2%	4.94	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		145	37	353	1480	317	178	42	26%	2.4	21.5%	12.0%	9.4%	2.8%	3.62	4.38	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	21	200	838	180	101	24	26%	2.4	21.5%	12.0%	9.4%	2.8%	3.62	4.38	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bailey Dees (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	21.1%	12.4%	2.9%	—	4.99	20.9%	8.8%	436	+0.12	—	—	—
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	75
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	75
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	70
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	69
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.49	18.4%	8.8%	205	+0.05	4.04	577	68
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	68
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	68
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	68
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	67
Adam Quintana R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	27	SW	4.17	18.6%	11.7%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	201	67
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	67
Tristan Beck R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	27	SW	4.71	19.2%	6.8%	4.3%	.271	3.84	19.4%	11.6%	170	-0.87	3.48	495	67
Andrew Bash R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	26	SW	4.63	17.6%	12.7%	2.6%	.249	4.07	16.7%	7.2%	231	-0.56	3.52	483	67
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	66
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	66
Trevor Cahill R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	27	SW	4.13	16.4%	9.4%	2.2%	.297	4.12	22.9%	12.0%	293	-0.01	3.37	556	66
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	66
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	65
Warwick Saupold R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	27	SU	4.37	16.2%	9.7%	2.5%	.285	4.82	13.7%	6.1%	88	+0.45	3.47	389	65
Joel De La Cruz R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	14.4%	8.6%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	205	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	149	20.9%	12.2%	1.20	4.91
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48