Michael Hobbs
P
Arkansas Travelers
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.75
FIP4.75
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.7%
BB%13.6%
K-BB%8.1%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL2020
CMD4040
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 8 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 13 | 7 | 2 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 19 | 0 | 26 | 107 | 24 | 12 | 2 | 17.3% | 12.9% | 2.3% | 3.08 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 44 | 0 | 49 | 219 | 62 | 30 | 5 | 21.8% | 15.8% | 3.1% | 3.12 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 42 | 0 | 58 | 238 | 52 | 30 | 3 | 17.7% | 13.9% | 1.4% | 2.97 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 45 | 0 | 51 | 229 | 60 | 40 | 2 | 21.2% | 19.2% | 1.3% | 2.47 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 48 | 35 | 6 | 21.7% | 15.9% | 2.5% | 5.04 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 48 | 34 | 6 | 21.8% | 15.3% | 2.6% | 4.98 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 47 | 32 | 6 | 21.8% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 4.97 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 45 | 31 | 6 | 21.7% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 43 | 30 | 6 | 21.5% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 5.03 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 41 | 29 | 6 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 5.11 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 38 | 28 | 5 | 20.9% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 5.20 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 41 | — | 41 | 175 | 36 | 27 | 5 | 20.6% | 15.2% | 3.1% | 5.30 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 33 | 25 | 5 | 20.2% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 5.41 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 30 | 24 | 5 | 19.7% | 15.7% | 3.3% | 5.54 | 5.62 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 158 | 0 | 192 | 832 | 170 | 132 | 18 | 20.4% | 15.9% | 2.1% | 2.99 | 4.55 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 0 | 200 | 865 | 177 | 137 | 19 | 20.4% | 15.9% | 2.1% | 2.99 | 4.55 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Hobbs (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.04 | 21.7% | 15.9% | 2.5% | — | 5.00 | 21.8% | 6.8% | 152 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 89 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 87 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 85 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.41 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .360 | 5.38 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.97 | 3.46 | 173 | 84 |
| Nick Ernst R 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.04 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 117 | 84 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 84 |
| Cole Uvila R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 20.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .360 | 3.16 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 44 | -0.91 | 3.16 | 155 | 83 |
| Javy Guerra R 2029 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 83 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.45 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.53 | 3.42 | 365 | 83 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 83 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.9% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 103 | 82 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 20.2% | 16.4% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.24 | 15.3% | 9.9% | 41 | -0.10 | 2.90 | 140 | 82 |
| Brad Goldberg R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.38 | 18.4% | 15.4% | 1.6% | .331 | 3.14 | 30.3% | 13.3% | 36 | -1.24 | 3.14 | 197 | 82 |
| Dario Beltre R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.24 | 21.4% | 17.0% | 1.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 110 | 82 |
| Chris Perry R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.3% | 19.3% | 0.9% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 113 | 81 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 81 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 81 |
| Preston Johnson R 2024 · 5.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.12 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.9% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 104 | 81 |
| Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 21.5% | 15.2% | 1.3% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 306 | 81 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 176 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.