Michael Hobbs — OGILVIE

Michael Hobbs P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION18 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.52

FIP5.52

K%20.3%

BB%18.8%

K-BB%1.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	8	39	13	7	2	0%	1.0	33.3%	17.9%	15.4%	5.1%	5.40	5.37	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	0	8	39	13	7	2	0%	1.0	33.3%	17.9%	15.4%	5.1%	5.40	5.62	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	19	0	26	107	24	12	2	0%	1.4	17.3%	12.9%	4.4%	2.3%	3.08	4.54	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	19	0	26	107	24	12	2	0%	1.4	22.4%	11.2%	11.2%	1.9%	3.08	3.63	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	44	0	49	219	62	30	5	0%	1.1	21.8%	15.8%	6.0%	3.0%	3.12	4.90	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	44	0	49	219	62	30	5	0%	1.1	21.8%	15.8%	6.0%	3.0%	3.12	4.90	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	44	0	49	219	62	30	5	0%	1.1	28.3%	13.7%	14.6%	2.3%	3.12	3.73	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	42	0	58	238	52	30	3	0%	1.4	17.7%	13.9%	3.8%	1.4%	2.97	4.14	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	42	0	58	238	52	30	3	0%	1.4	17.7%	13.9%	3.8%	1.4%	2.97	4.14	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	42	0	58	238	52	30	3	0%	1.4	21.8%	12.6%	9.2%	1.3%	2.97	3.53	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	45	0	51	229	60	40	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	19.2%	2.0%	1.3%	2.47	4.46	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	45	0	51	229	60	40	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	19.2%	2.0%	1.3%	2.47	4.46	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	45	0	51	229	60	40	2	0%	1.1	26.2%	17.5%	8.7%	0.9%	2.47	3.61	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	12	0	18	78	17	9	0	0%	1.5	—	—	—	—	2.45	—	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	12	0	18	78	17	9	0	0%	1.5	—	—	—	—	2.45	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	ROK RAW	SEA	3	0	3	15	5	1	0	0%	1.1	33.3%	6.7%	26.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.13	—
2026	27	A RAW	SEA	5	0	9	34	7	6	0	0%	1.7	20.6%	17.6%	2.9%	0.0%	2.08	3.60	—
2026	27	A+ RAW	SEA	1	0	1	6	1	1	0	0%	1.3	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	3.80	—
2026	27	AA RAW	SEA	3	0	5	23	4	1	0	0%	1.7	17.4%	4.3%	13.0%	0.0%	3.60	2.18	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	SEA	6	0	6	25	5	5	1	0%	1.0	20.3%	18.8%	1.5%	2.5%	5.52	5.52	-0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	24	103	22	14	1	—	—	21.4%	13.3%	8.2%	0.6%	3.20	1.34	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SEA	65	0	68	287	59	52	8	0%	1.0	20.5%	18.0%	2.5%	2.6%	5.45	5.48	-0.7
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	62	0	65	274	56	48	8	0%	1.0	20.5%	17.6%	2.9%	2.8%	5.46	5.53	-0.7
2027	28	MLB CTX	SEA	24	0	25	106	22	19	3	0%	1.0	20.5%	18.0%	2.5%	2.6%	5.45	5.48	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	34	0	36	152	31	27	4	0%	1.1	20.5%	17.6%	2.9%	2.8%	5.46	5.53	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	0	60	254	52	45	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	17.8%	2.7%	2.8%	5.46	5.13	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	150	23	0%	1.1	20.5%	17.8%	2.7%	2.8%	5.46	5.13	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		170	0	211	910	187	141	17	0%	1.2	20.5%	15.5%	5.0%	1.9%	2.95	4.38	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	0	200	864	177	134	17	0%	1.2	20.5%	15.5%	5.0%	1.9%	2.95	4.38	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Hobbs (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.52	20.3%	18.8%	2.5%	—	5.50	20.5%	2.7%	133	-0.02	—	—	—
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	83
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	81
Brad Goldberg R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	27	SU	4.38	18.4%	15.4%	1.6%	.331	3.14	30.3%	13.3%	36	-1.24	3.14	197	81
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	80
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	80
Livan Reinoso R 2023 · 4.36 FIP	24	SU	4.36	20.1%	19.7%	0.8%	.331	5.40	15.7%	-2.3%	154	+1.04	4.36	219	79
Mitchell Stumpo R 2023 · 6.35 FIP	27	SU	6.35	20.6%	20.8%	4.3%	.368	4.77	22.6%	15.5%	34	-1.58	3.97	158	79
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	79
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	79
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	79
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	79
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	79
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	79
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	78
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	78
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	77
Jacob Morris R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	25	SU	4.77	18.7%	21.1%	1.0%	.236	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	102	77
Jake Gozzo R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	16.2%	17.6%	2.0%	.227	4.32	15.6%	-1.3%	32	-0.72	4.32	162	77
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	76
Jordan Gore R 2022 · 5.37 FIP	27	SU	5.37	15.2%	18.5%	2.2%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	113	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	20.5%	18.2%	1.03	5.48
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99