Danny Hilario — OGILVIE

Danny Hilario P FCL Rays

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs ROK

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%19.1%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	11	0	14	71	14	13	5	0%	1.3	13.4%	22.9%	-9.5%	9.3%	10.05	9.95	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	11	0	14	71	14	13	5	0%	1.3	19.7%	18.3%	1.4%	7.0%	10.05	8.40	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	13	0	25	103	27	16	2	0%	1.9	17.8%	19.4%	-1.6%	2.9%	4.38	5.65	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	13	0	25	103	27	16	2	0%	1.9	17.8%	19.4%	-1.6%	2.9%	4.38	5.65	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	13	0	25	103	27	16	2	0%	1.9	26.2%	15.5%	10.7%	1.9%	4.38	3.91	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	15	0	25	114	29	14	0	0%	1.6	17.3%	15.4%	1.9%	0.0%	3.65	3.58	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	15	0	25	114	29	14	0	0%	1.6	17.3%	15.4%	1.9%	0.0%	3.65	3.58	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	15	0	25	114	29	14	0	0%	1.6	25.4%	12.3%	13.2%	0.0%	3.65	2.45	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	43	165	41	10	2	0%	2.0	17.2%	7.4%	9.9%	2.1%	2.30	3.73	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	43	165	41	10	2	0%	2.0	17.2%	7.4%	9.9%	2.1%	2.30	3.73	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	43	165	41	10	2	0%	2.0	24.8%	6.1%	18.8%	1.2%	2.30	2.50	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	TB	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.1%	10.0%	9.2%	2.9%	4.70	4.70	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TB	39	0	41	171	36	16	5	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	2.8%	4.53	4.45	+0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	TB	19	0	20	84	18	8	2	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	2.8%	4.53	4.45	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	0	20	84	17	8	2	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	2.8%	4.53	4.07	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	80	20	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.2%	11.5%	2.8%	4.53	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		61	0	107	453	76	66	13	0%	1.7	16.8%	14.5%	2.2%	2.9%	4.13	5.10	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	0	200	849	143	124	24	0%	1.7	16.8%	14.5%	2.2%	2.9%	4.13	5.10	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Danny Hilario (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	19.1%	10.0%	2.9%	—	4.45	20.7%	11.5%	41	-0.25	—	—	—
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	91
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	91
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	89
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	88
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	88
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	88
Andrew Bash R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	18.0%	9.2%	2.1%	.273	4.21	14.9%	4.8%	146	+0.34	3.52	483	87
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	87
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	87
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	87
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	87
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	87
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	87
Yordin Chalas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	19	SU	4.56	17.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.294	3.92	19.9%	7.8%	116	-0.64	3.67	140	86
Gerlin Rosario R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	21	SU	3.79	20.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.294	4.94	18.1%	5.4%	153	+1.15	3.02	248	86
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	86
Nick Lockhart R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	21	SU	4.44	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.63	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.19	4.44	140	86
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	86
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	86
Tyler Zombro R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	22	SU	4.37	14.6%	8.9%	2.5%	.295	2.67	15.7%	12.7%	134	-1.70	2.22	172	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	20.2%	9.5%	1.10	4.59
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58