Gerlin Rosario — OGILVIE

Gerlin Rosario P Lansing Lugnuts

+0.1 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 211 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2026

ERA4.44

FIP4.44

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.6%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%11.6%

IP44

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2026

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	20	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	12	7	53	205	35	4	2	11.6%	2.4%	0.9%	2.38	2.94	+1.2
2023	21	A	Charleston RiverDogs	20	0	41	174	49	13	3	20.3%	9.1%	2.3%	1.96	3.79	+0.5
2024	22	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	34	1	64	266	84	29	5	23.6%	12.7%	2.7%	2.97	4.23	+0.5
2025	23	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	30	0	48	202	43	18	2	16.4%	10.2%	1.3%	2.27	3.75	+0.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	2	0	3	15	2	4	0	—	—	—	10.12	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	OAK	44	—	44	186	38	21	5	20.4%	11.1%	2.8%	4.67	4.67	+0.1
2026 Total	24	MLB	OAK	—	—	47	201	40	25	5	19.9%	12.3%	2.6%	4.98	4.40	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	OAK	45	—	45	189	40	20	5	21.1%	10.6%	2.8%	4.59	4.56	+0.2
2028	26	MLB	OAK	45	—	45	189	41	20	5	21.5%	10.5%	2.8%	4.54	4.52	+0.2
2029	27	MLB	OAK	44	—	44	187	40	20	5	21.6%	10.4%	2.8%	4.52	4.52	+0.2
2030	28	MLB	OAK	44	—	44	185	40	19	5	21.6%	10.4%	2.8%	4.53	4.54	+0.2
2031	29	MLB	OAK	43	—	43	180	39	19	5	21.5%	10.5%	2.9%	4.56	4.59	+0.2
2032	30	MLB	OAK	41	—	41	175	37	19	5	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	4.61	4.65	+0.1
2033	31	MLB	OAK	40	—	40	169	36	18	5	21.0%	10.8%	3.0%	4.68	4.72	+0.1
2034	32	MLB	OAK	38	—	38	162	34	18	5	20.8%	10.9%	3.1%	4.76	4.81	+0.1
2035	33	MLB	OAK	37	—	37	155	32	17	5	20.4%	11.1%	3.2%	4.85	4.91	+0.0
2036	34	MLB	OAK	35	—	35	147	30	17	5	20.1%	11.3%	3.3%	4.95	5.02	-0.0
2037	35	MLB	OAK	33	—	33	139	27	16	5	19.7%	11.5%	3.4%	5.06	5.14	-0.1
2038	36	MLB	OAK	31	—	31	130	25	15	5	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	5.19	5.27	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			98	8	208	862	157	79	16	18.2%	9.2%	1.8%	2.55	3.74	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—			94	8	200	828	151	76	15	18.2%	9.2%	1.8%	2.55	3.74	+3.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gerlin Rosario (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	20.4%	11.1%	2.8%	—	4.53	21.4%	10.9%	134	-0.14	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	3.00	24.2%	12.6%	70	-1.56	2.12	117	91
Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	90
Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	21.4%	12.4%	2.4%	.296	5.37	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.16	3.60	146	90
Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.51	18.6%	4.7%	123	-0.35	4.05	164	90
Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	89
Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	17.1%	9.6%	2.9%	.289	3.53	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.95	1.94	131	89
Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.28	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.56	3.72	105	89
Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.53	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.08	3.01	214	89
Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	23.8%	11.0%	2.0%	.304	4.61	21.9%	9.2%	142	+1.01	3.60	246	89
Kyle Whitten R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	18.0%	9.5%	2.8%	.296	5.22	18.2%	7.4%	37	+0.88	4.33	143	89
Dylan Hall R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	24	SU	3.48	19.0%	9.6%	1.4%	.305	5.78	17.8%	4.9%	107	+2.30	3.48	153	88
Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.74	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.64	4.10	105	88
Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.09	4.10	112	88
Hunter Stanley R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SU	3.87	18.9%	10.1%	2.0%	.270	5.33	17.4%	7.1%	148	+1.46	3.87	162	88
Armando Ruiz R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	18.4%	11.4%	2.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	113	88
Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	25	SU	3.49	22.4%	10.2%	1.8%	.330	4.95	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.49	140	88
Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	23.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.239	5.62	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.91	3.71	325	88
Reid Schaller R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	20.2%	13.1%	2.9%	.298	3.90	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.72	3.63	186	87
Grayson Thurman R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	24	SU	4.71	19.5%	14.1%	2.7%	.319	4.82	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.11	4.56	132	87
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2027 · 3.83 FIP	25	SU	3.83	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.38	3.83	181	87

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.