Gerlin Rosario — OGILVIE

Gerlin Rosario P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 211 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%18.0%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	12	7	53	205	35	4	2	58%	4.4	11.6%	2.4%	9.2%	1.1%	2.38	3.02	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	12	7	53	205	35	4	2	58%	4.4	17.1%	2.0%	15.1%	1.0%	2.38	2.50	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	41	174	49	13	3	0%	2.1	20.3%	9.1%	11.2%	2.3%	1.96	3.79	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	41	174	49	13	3	0%	2.1	20.3%	9.1%	11.2%	2.3%	1.96	3.79	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	41	174	49	13	3	0%	2.1	28.2%	7.5%	20.7%	1.7%	1.96	2.62	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	1	64	266	84	29	5	3%	1.9	23.6%	12.7%	10.9%	2.7%	2.97	4.20	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	1	64	266	84	29	5	3%	1.9	23.6%	12.7%	10.9%	2.7%	2.97	4.20	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	1	64	266	84	29	5	3%	1.9	31.6%	10.9%	20.7%	1.9%	2.97	2.85	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	30	0	48	202	43	18	2	0%	1.6	16.4%	10.2%	6.1%	1.3%	2.27	3.74	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	30	0	48	202	43	18	2	0%	1.6	16.4%	10.2%	6.1%	1.3%	2.27	3.74	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	30	0	48	202	43	18	2	0%	1.6	21.3%	8.9%	12.4%	1.0%	2.27	2.97	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	30	0	42	206	31	28	10	0%	1.4	11.6%	15.6%	-4.0%	6.1%	7.93	7.43	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	30	0	42	206	31	28	10	0%	1.4	11.6%	15.6%	-4.0%	6.1%	7.93	7.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	OAK	30	0	42	206	31	28	10	0%	1.4	15.0%	13.6%	1.5%	4.9%	7.93	6.22	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	OAK	55	0	58	245	46	28	7	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.3%	7.6%	2.8%	4.87	4.83	-0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	55	0	58	245	48	27	7	0%	1.1	19.5%	11.1%	8.4%	2.8%	4.79	4.77	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	OAK	24	0	25	106	20	12	3	0%	1.0	18.9%	11.3%	7.6%	2.8%	4.87	4.83	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	37	0	39	165	32	18	5	0%	1.1	19.5%	11.1%	8.4%	2.8%	4.79	4.77	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	268	52	30	7	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.2%	8.1%	2.8%	4.82	4.41	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	95	22	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.2%	8.1%	2.8%	4.82	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		126	8	248	1053	179	108	29	6%	2.0	17.0%	10.2%	6.8%	2.7%	3.38	4.45	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	6	200	850	144	87	23	6%	2.0	17.0%	10.2%	6.8%	2.7%	3.38	4.45	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gerlin Rosario (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	18.0%	12.0%	2.8%	—	4.80	19.2%	8.0%	116	-0.19	—	—	—
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	92
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	90
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	90
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	90
Matt Lollis R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	18.5%	12.2%	2.7%	.237	4.95	19.2%	4.7%	56	+0.39	4.56	120	89
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	89
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	89
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	88
Armando Ruiz R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	24	SU	4.26	18.4%	11.4%	2.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	113	88
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	88
Josh Uhen R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	16.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.303	4.02	15.6%	1.2%	82	-0.07	3.17	185	88
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	88
Matthew Gorst R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	24	SU	4.66	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	199	87
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	87
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.17	17.6%	7.7%	37	+0.82	4.32	152	86
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	86
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	86
Darin Gillies R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	15.0%	10.8%	1.8%	.270	4.95	22.5%	12.9%	124	+0.73	4.22	295	86
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	86
Bryan Pope R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.20	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.24	3.96	148	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	18.8%	11.5%	1.07	4.88
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58