Gerlin Rosario
P
Lansing Lugnuts
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 211 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA5.02
FIP5.02
K%18.0%
BB%12.1%
K-BB%5.9%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 12 | 7 | 53 | 205 | 35 | 4 | 2 | 58% | 4.4 | 11.6% | 2.4% | 9.2% | 0.9% | 2.38 | 2.91 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 12 | 7 | 53 | 205 | 35 | 4 | 2 | 58% | 4.4 | 17.1% | 2.0% | 15.1% | 1.0% | 2.38 | 2.50 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 49 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 2.1 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 2.3% | 1.96 | 3.79 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 49 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 2.1 | 28.2% | 7.5% | 20.7% | 1.7% | 1.96 | 2.62 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 1 | 64 | 266 | 84 | 29 | 5 | 3% | 1.9 | 23.6% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 2.97 | 4.46 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 1 | 64 | 266 | 84 | 29 | 5 | 3% | 1.9 | 31.6% | 10.9% | 20.7% | 1.9% | 2.97 | 2.85 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 30 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 43 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 16.4% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 1.4% | 2.27 | 3.80 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 30 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 43 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 1.0% | 2.27 | 2.97 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 20 | 0 | 28 | 138 | 20 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 11.2% | 15.8% | -4.7% | 3.6% | 7.48 | 6.15 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 43 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 5.02 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.0% | 12.1% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 5.02 | 5.02 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 85 | 379 | 63 | 48 | 11 | — | — | 16.7% | 12.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 5.82 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.0% | 12.1% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 5.02 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 46 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 11.3% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 47 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.79 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 47 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.81 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 20 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 11.3% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 31 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 36 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 0 | 108 | 454 | 88 | 51 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.43 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 164 | 95 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 116 | 8 | 233 | 985 | 170 | 97 | 22 | 7% | 2.0 | 17.3% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 2.2% | 3.05 | 4.12 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 99 | 7 | 200 | 844 | 146 | 83 | 19 | 7% | 2.0 | 17.3% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 2.2% | 3.05 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gerlin Rosario (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.82 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 172 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| David Trexler R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.91 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.9% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.47 | 4.44 | 100 | 92 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 90 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 90 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 89 |
| Ryan Ledbetter R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.63 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 124 | 89 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .237 | 5.05 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.46 | 4.59 | 120 | 89 |
| Marc Brakeman R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.71 | 18.3% | 13.7% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 156 | 88 |
| Hunter Mann R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.27 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 135 | 88 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 87 |
| Brayden Spears R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.07 | 15.7% | 10.5% | 1.8% | .337 | 4.25 | 19.9% | 9.0% | 44 | +0.18 | 4.07 | 105 | 87 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 87 |
| Matthew Gorst R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.72 | 16.2% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 199 | 87 |
| Hunter Hayes R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.78 | 18.0% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .316 | 6.43 | 12.6% | -6.5% | 33 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 210 | 87 |
| Josh Uhen R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.00 | 16.1% | 9.7% | 1.9% | .303 | 3.97 | 15.6% | 1.2% | 82 | -0.03 | 3.13 | 185 | 87 |
| Cade Denton R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.96 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 3.3% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 127 | 86 |
| Billy Seidl R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 86 |
| Ryan Moseley R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 16.9% | 11.9% | 1.8% | .282 | 5.24 | 14.1% | 1.1% | 48 | +1.08 | 4.09 | 264 | 86 |
| Armando Ruiz R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.98 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 1.8% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 113 | 86 |
| Kyle Whitten R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.26 | 18.0% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .296 | 5.21 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 37 | +0.95 | 4.26 | 152 | 86 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.12 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .309 | 3.23 | 24.8% | 15.5% | 104 | -0.89 | 2.88 | 312 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 19.0% | 11.4% | 1.09 | 4.88 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |