Yordin Chalas
P
Hillsboro Hops
+0.3
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'4" / 175 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.6 · 2029
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.2%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%10.7%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | 20 | 0 | 24 | 106 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 3.33 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 41 | 0 | 51 | 224 | 72 | 24 | 5 | 24.3% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 26 | 17 | 71 | 330 | 68 | 38 | 4 | 16.4% | 11.7% | 0.9% | 6.06 | 3.68 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 51 | 25 | 6 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 55 | 24 | 6 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 58 | 23 | 7 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 60 | 23 | 7 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.15 | 4.09 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 60 | 23 | 7 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.10 | 4.07 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 60 | 23 | 7 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 4.08 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 59 | 23 | 7 | 23.3% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.11 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 57 | 22 | 7 | 23.2% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 55 | 22 | 7 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.22 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 50 | 21 | 6 | 22.5% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 21.8% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 21.4% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 87 | 17 | 146 | 660 | 127 | 78 | 13 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 1.9% | 4.92 | 4.03 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 119 | 23 | 200 | 902 | 174 | 107 | 18 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 1.9% | 4.92 | 4.03 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yordin Chalas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.17 | 22.7% | 13.4% | 180 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| David Garner R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 95 |
| William Kempner R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .277 | 3.24 | 27.3% | 11.8% | 68 | -0.80 | 3.24 | 129 | 94 |
| Brendan Collins R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 94 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.24 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.26 | 3.32 | 181 | 93 |
| Shane Broyles R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.95 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .338 | 3.75 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.20 | 3.30 | 218 | 92 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .305 | 3.40 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.57 | 2.58 | 408 | 92 |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.38 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .292 | 5.40 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.02 | 4.38 | 355 | 92 |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .312 | 5.10 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +0.87 | 4.23 | 152 | 92 |
| Brett Standlee R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.11 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | 4.48 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.37 | 4.11 | 128 | 91 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.24 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.43 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.19 | 4.24 | 225 | 91 |
| Ryan McNeil R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.63 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .302 | 6.25 | 16.1% | -2.2% | 40 | +2.62 | 3.63 | 155 | 91 |
| Aaron Holiday R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.81 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 3.9% | .310 | 5.20 | 19.7% | -3.3% | 59 | +0.39 | 4.72 | 116 | 90 |
| Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.64 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.65 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +1.01 | 3.64 | 429 | 90 |
| Colby Morris R 2028 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 90 |
| Matt Frawley R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.39 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 139 | 90 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.71 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | .295 | 5.34 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.63 | 4.71 | 137 | 90 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.45 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .331 | 6.10 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.65 | 4.45 | 283 | 90 |
| Alec Barger R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.51 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.8% | .289 | 4.17 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.34 | 3.86 | 242 | 90 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.24 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 167 | +0.65 | 2.57 | 304 | 90 |
| Alex Palsha R 2028 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 90 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $7M | $16M | +$9M | ||