Owen Holt — OGILVIE

Owen Holt P ACL Reds

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 30 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%18.6%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP30

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	4	1	7	32	11	2	1	25%	1.8	34.4%	6.2%	28.1%	3.1%	7.71	2.70	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	4	1	7	32	11	2	1	25%	1.8	34.4%	6.2%	28.1%	3.1%	7.71	2.67	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	45	179	49	16	2	0%	1.9	20.7%	10.2%	10.5%	2.0%	2.42	3.72	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	45	179	49	16	2	0%	1.9	27.4%	8.9%	18.4%	1.1%	2.42	2.56	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	61	270	75	30	7	0%	1.6	21.6%	12.4%	9.2%	3.0%	4.57	4.51	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	61	270	75	30	7	0%	1.6	21.6%	12.4%	9.2%	3.0%	4.57	4.51	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	61	270	75	30	7	0%	1.6	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	2.6%	4.57	3.61	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	37	0	48	209	39	23	4	0%	1.3	15.1%	12.1%	3.0%	2.1%	5.03	4.52	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	37	0	48	209	39	23	4	0%	1.3	15.1%	12.1%	3.0%	2.1%	5.03	4.52	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	37	0	48	209	39	23	4	0%	1.3	18.7%	11.0%	7.7%	1.9%	5.03	3.99	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
YTD	27	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	ROK RAW	CIN	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.57	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CIN	28	0	29	124	23	14	4	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.4%	7.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.98	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	CIN	10	0	11	46	9	5	1	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.4%	7.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	45	9	5	1	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.4%	7.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.60	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	94	19	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.4%	7.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		104	1	163	698	140	80	17	1%	1.6	20.1%	11.5%	8.6%	2.5%	4.20	4.20	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	1	200	856	172	98	21	1%	1.6	20.1%	11.5%	8.6%	2.5%	4.20	4.20	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Owen Holt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	18.6%	11.5%	2.9%	—	4.98	18.9%	7.5%	29	+0.02	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	88
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	88
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	87
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	87
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	86
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	86
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	86
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	85
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	85
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	85
Michael Blazek R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	17.9%	11.9%	3.3%	.336	4.43	17.5%	8.0%	124	-0.49	2.99	221	84
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	84
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	84
Tucker Healy R 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	15.6%	11.5%	2.0%	.321	5.20	19.2%	8.7%	24	+0.87	2.82	174	83
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	83
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	83
Jonathan Aro R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	27	SU	3.97	17.3%	10.9%	1.7%	.280	3.28	12.7%	9.3%	64	-0.69	2.57	323	83
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	83
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	82
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	18.7%	11.4%	1.14	4.95
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21