Owen Holt

P ACL Reds

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	37	0	61	4.57	3.61	27.8%	11.1%	—	K 21.6% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.51
2024	25	AACIN	37	0	48	5.03	3.99	18.7%	11.0%	—	K 15.1% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.52
2026	27	ROKCIN	2	0	2	0.00	2.60	25.0%	12.5%	—	K 25.0% · BB 12.5% · FIP 2.57
2027PROJ	28	MLBCIN	—	—	0	4.72	4.72	20.2%	10.4%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	29	MLBCIN	7	0	7	4.76	4.81	20.3%	10.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 2.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Spencer Bivens (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%20.2%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	4	1	7	32	11	2	1	25%	1.8	34.4%	6.2%	28.1%	3.1%	7.71	2.70	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	4	1	7	32	11	2	1	25%	1.8	34.4%	6.2%	28.1%	3.1%	7.71	2.67	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	45	179	49	16	2	0%	1.9	20.7%	10.2%	10.5%	2.0%	2.42	3.72	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	45	179	49	16	2	0%	1.9	27.4%	8.9%	18.4%	1.1%	2.42	2.56	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	61	270	75	30	7	0%	1.6	21.6%	12.4%	9.2%	3.0%	4.57	4.51	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	61	270	75	30	7	0%	1.6	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	2.6%	4.57	3.61	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	37	0	48	209	39	23	4	0%	1.3	15.1%	12.1%	3.0%	2.1%	5.03	4.52	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	37	0	48	209	39	23	4	0%	1.3	15.1%	12.1%	3.0%	2.1%	5.03	4.52	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	37	0	48	209	39	23	4	0%	1.3	18.7%	11.0%	7.7%	1.9%	5.03	3.99	—
2026	27	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.57	—
2026	27	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.57	—
2026	27	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	2.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	10.4%	9.8%	3.0%	4.72	4.72	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CIN	21	0	22	95	19	10	3	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.5%	9.8%	3.1%	4.76	4.81	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	CIN	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.3%	10.5%	9.8%	3.1%	4.76	4.81	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	7	28	6	3	1	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.5%	9.8%	3.1%	4.76	4.43	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	89	30	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.5%	9.8%	3.1%	4.76	4.43	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		104	1	163	698	140	80	17	1%	1.6	20.1%	11.5%	8.6%	2.5%	4.20	4.20	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	1	200	856	172	98	21	1%	1.6	20.1%	11.5%	8.6%	2.5%	4.20	4.20	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 48 IPFIP 3.97 → 4.52 (+0.55)K% 18.7% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.66%	—	×0.810	15.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.00%	—	×1.100	12.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.91%	÷1.089	×1.200	2.11%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 3.97 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 59 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.51 (+1.15)K% 28.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.08%	—	×0.770	21.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.77%	—	×1.150	12.38%
HR / BF /BF	2.31%	÷0.951	×1.250	3.03%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADaytona Tortugas · 37 IPFIP 2.57 → 3.72 (+1.16)K% 28.0% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.00%	—	×0.740	20.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.67%	—	×1.180	10.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷0.883	×1.300	1.96%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 2.57 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 7 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.04 (+0.67)K% 24.1% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.14%	—	×0.770	18.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×1.150	11.90%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.058	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Reds · 7 IPFIP 2.70 → 4.46 (+1.75)K% 34.4% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.38%	—	×0.680	23.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.250	7.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.026	×1.400	4.27%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 2.70 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Owen Holt (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	20.2%	10.4%	3.0%	—	4.81	20.3%	9.8%	22	+0.09	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	86
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	86
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	85
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	85
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	85
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	84
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	83
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	83
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	83
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	83
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	82
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	82
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	82
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	82
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	82
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	20.2%	10.5%	1.17	4.74
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*