Jeison Pena — OGILVIE

Jeison Pena P Carolina Mudcats

+0.2 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.3 · 2027

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.1%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%11.5%

IP37

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2027

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Brewers Gold	11	2	28	131	35	18	1	18.2%	17.2%	1.2%	5.14	4.42	+0.2
2022	19	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	24	2	46	205	64	32	1	23.9%	15.5%	0.6%	3.30	3.39	+0.8
2023	20	A	Carolina Mudcats	36	0	46	231	51	41	4	16.3%	20.9%	2.1%	7.96	5.55	-0.3
2024	21	A	Carolina Mudcats	30	0	43	187	35	26	1	13.9%	16.4%	0.6%	5.02	4.35	+0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	MIL	37	—	37	157	35	17	5	22.1%	10.5%	2.9%	4.52	4.52	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	MIL	38	—	38	161	37	16	5	22.8%	9.8%	2.8%	4.42	4.37	+0.3
2028	25	MLB	MIL	39	—	39	163	38	15	5	23.2%	9.4%	2.8%	4.33	4.28	+0.3
2029	26	MLB	MIL	39	—	39	163	38	15	5	23.4%	9.4%	2.9%	4.29	4.26	+0.3
2030	27	MLB	MIL	38	—	38	162	38	15	5	23.4%	9.4%	2.9%	4.28	4.27	+0.3
2031	28	MLB	MIL	38	—	38	160	37	15	5	23.4%	9.5%	2.9%	4.29	4.30	+0.3
2032	29	MLB	MIL	37	—	37	156	36	15	5	23.2%	9.5%	2.9%	4.32	4.34	+0.3
2033	30	MLB	MIL	36	—	36	151	35	15	5	23.0%	9.6%	3.0%	4.37	4.41	+0.2
2034	31	MLB	MIL	34	—	34	146	33	14	4	22.8%	9.8%	3.1%	4.44	4.48	+0.2
2035	32	MLB	MIL	33	—	33	140	31	14	4	22.5%	9.9%	3.2%	4.52	4.57	+0.1
2036	33	MLB	MIL	32	—	32	133	30	13	4	22.2%	10.1%	3.2%	4.61	4.66	+0.1
2037	34	MLB	MIL	30	—	30	127	28	13	4	21.9%	10.3%	3.3%	4.71	4.77	+0.1
2038	35	MLB	MIL	28	—	28	119	26	13	4	21.5%	10.5%	3.5%	4.82	4.89	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			101	4	164	754	136	133	9	18.1%	17.7%	1.2%	5.39	4.47	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—			123	5	200	921	166	163	11	18.1%	17.7%	1.2%	5.39	4.47	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeison Pena (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	22.1%	10.5%	2.9%	—	4.30	23.1%	13.6%	116	-0.22	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	97
Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	94
Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	23	SU	3.66	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.87	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.21	3.66	123	93
Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	92
Owen Holt R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	20.7%	10.2%	2.1%	.258	4.53	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.72	3.81	145	92
Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	23	SU	3.82	20.3%	9.9%	2.1%	.315	4.23	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.41	3.72	483	92
Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	3.95	18.2%	9.1%	96	-0.00	3.37	134	91
Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	23.8%	11.0%	2.0%	.304	4.61	21.9%	9.2%	142	+1.01	3.60	246	90
Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	23	SU	4.31	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.11	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.20	4.01	142	90
Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.22	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.84	2.82	152	89
Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	24	SU	4.06	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	20.5%	11.0%	189	+0.30	4.01	283	89
Vince Vannelle R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.28	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.56	3.72	105	89
Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	23.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.239	5.62	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.91	3.71	325	89
Hunter Dula R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	23	SU	3.90	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.56	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.66	3.90	132	89
Kyle Martin R 2027 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.53	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.08	3.01	214	89
Joey Stock R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	23	SU	3.48	20.4%	9.8%	1.6%	.275	5.00	22.5%	6.8%	95	+1.52	3.48	121	89
Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.64 FIP	23	SU	3.64	20.5%	10.3%	1.8%	.246	3.81	21.2%	12.7%	169	+0.17	2.90	215	88
Cre Finfrock R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	23	SU	4.69	23.0%	11.7%	3.7%	.278	6.32	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.63	4.27	103	88
Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	3.00	24.2%	12.6%	70	-1.56	2.12	117	88
Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.09	4.10	112	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.2	$1M	+$0.6M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$2M