Ryan Harbin
P
Greensboro Grasshoppers
+0.2
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 228 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.4 · 2028
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.8%
BB%13.7%
K-BB%10.1%
IP55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2028
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 4 | 3 | 10 | 48 | 7 | 8 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.31 | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Pirates Black | 5 | 5 | 14 | 73 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 15.8% | 15.4% | 2.1% | 7.53 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 9 | 0 | 16 | 72 | 15 | 10 | 1 | 14.4% | 18.9% | 2.2% | 4.41 | 5.51 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 35 | 0 | 54 | 233 | 68 | 29 | 4 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 1.9% | 3.15 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 33 | 1 | 43 | 198 | 65 | 28 | 5 | 24.3% | 15.9% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 50 | 1 | 63 | 288 | 92 | 46 | 3 | 25.6% | 17.7% | 1.3% | 4.69 | 3.91 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 55 | 32 | 6 | 23.8% | 13.7% | 2.5% | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 57 | 29 | 6 | 24.1% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 4.47 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 57 | 28 | 6 | 24.3% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 4.41 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 57 | 28 | 6 | 24.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 56 | 27 | 6 | 24.2% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 54 | 27 | 6 | 24.1% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 52 | 26 | 6 | 23.8% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 50 | 26 | 6 | 23.6% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 47 | 25 | 6 | 23.3% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 44 | 24 | 6 | 23.0% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 41 | 23 | 6 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 22.3% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 35 | 21 | 5 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.4% | 5.06 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 136 | 10 | 201 | 912 | 202 | 149 | 19 | 22.1% | 16.3% | 2.1% | 4.74 | 4.43 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 135 | 10 | 200 | 906 | 201 | 148 | 19 | 22.1% | 16.3% | 2.1% | 4.74 | 4.43 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Harbin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 23.8% | 13.7% | 2.5% | — | 4.39 | 24.2% | 12.2% | 166 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 93 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.73 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 104 | 93 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.00 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.0% | .331 | 4.03 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.03 | 3.31 | 213 | 92 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.61 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 2.7% | .298 | 4.70 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | +0.09 | 4.23 | 222 | 92 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.74 | 22.7% | 13.6% | 1.5% | .270 | 4.00 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 94 | +0.26 | 3.60 | 154 | 91 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 91 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 91 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.17 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .284 | 2.58 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.59 | 1.53 | 433 | 91 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.91 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 4.68 | 22.3% | 12.1% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.38 | 188 | 91 |
| Peter Tago R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.66 | 24.4% | 14.0% | 1.5% | .303 | 3.44 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 39 | -0.22 | 3.26 | 207 | 90 |
| Zack Jones R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.56 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 1.3% | .280 | 3.63 | 28.1% | 10.9% | 57 | +0.07 | 2.56 | 109 | 90 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.58 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.9% | .341 | 4.72 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.14 | 4.04 | 404 | 89 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 24.3% | 15.3% | 1.9% | .328 | 3.62 | 26.4% | 17.1% | 108 | -0.40 | 3.30 | 218 | 89 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.64 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.22 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.42 | 1.21 | 538 | 88 |
| Bud Jeter R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.71 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 1.3% | .318 | 3.65 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 101 | -0.06 | 3.12 | 226 | 88 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 88 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.65 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .282 | 4.58 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +0.93 | 2.57 | 304 | 88 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.31 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.48 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.17 | 4.31 | 107 | 87 |
| Andrew Politi R 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .274 | 4.36 | 23.4% | 13.0% | 144 | +0.75 | 3.37 | 292 | 87 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1.0M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $5M | $9M | +$3M | ||