Erian Rodriguez
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 113
ERA5.00
FIP5.00
K%16.2%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%4.4%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 11 | 1 | 12 | 63 | 15 | 10 | 1 | 9% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 19.8% | -3.7% | 2.4% | 11.57 | 5.56 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 11 | 1 | 12 | 63 | 15 | 10 | 1 | 9% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 15.9% | 7.9% | 1.6% | 11.57 | 4.21 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 26 | 3 | 69 | 320 | 74 | 45 | 5 | 12% | 2.7 | 17.1% | 16.6% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 6.49 | 4.98 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 26 | 3 | 69 | 320 | 74 | 45 | 5 | 12% | 2.7 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 9.1% | 1.6% | 6.49 | 3.85 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 13 | 87 | 365 | 76 | 37 | 3 | 54% | 3.6 | 15.7% | 11.8% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 3.41 | 3.97 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 13 | 87 | 365 | 76 | 37 | 3 | 54% | 3.6 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 0.8% | 3.41 | 3.08 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 18 | 90 | 377 | 76 | 35 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 16.1% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 1.4% | 3.19 | 3.82 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 18 | 90 | 377 | 76 | 35 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 20.2% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 1.3% | 3.19 | 3.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 15 | 2 | 34 | 173 | 28 | 33 | 3 | 13% | 2.2 | 12.5% | 23.2% | -10.7% | 2.5% | 6.95 | 6.38 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CHC | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 46 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 5.00 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 5.00 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 101 | 457 | 74 | 67 | 10 | — | — | 16.2% | 14.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 5.65 | 5.46 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 5.00 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 52 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 4.83 | 4.77 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 54 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.68 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 23 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 4.83 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 36 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 0 | 77 | 324 | 60 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 4.77 | 4.34 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 157 | 91 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 4.77 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 94 | 37 | 292 | 1298 | 205 | 188 | 23 | 39% | 3.1 | 15.8% | 14.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 4.81 | 4.57 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 25 | 200 | 889 | 140 | 129 | 16 | 39% | 3.1 | 15.8% | 14.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 4.81 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Erian Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.00 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 2.5% | — | 4.72 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 136 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Matt Marsh R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.87 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 70 | -0.34 | 3.13 | 143 | 89 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 87 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 87 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .277 | 3.65 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 83 | -0.37 | 3.43 | 167 | 86 |
| Casey Anderson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.06 | 17.3% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .328 | 5.96 | 19.3% | 4.0% | 45 | +1.90 | 4.06 | 229 | 86 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 85 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.20 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.18 | 4.20 | 171 | 85 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 84 |
| Cullen Kafka R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 148 | 83 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 83 |
| Sam Whiting R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.13 | 14.3% | 15.1% | 2.4% | .309 | 7.73 | 17.8% | 2.4% | 17 | +2.60 | 4.17 | 152 | 83 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 83 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2028 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 83 |
| Cooper Adams R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 83 |
| Grant Ford R 2025 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 83 |
| Brad Allen R 2028 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.3% | .315 | 6.07 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.85 | 4.22 | 149 | 82 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.59 | 12.9% | 12.5% | 1.8% | .351 | 3.81 | 16.5% | 6.2% | 146 | -0.78 | 3.50 | 219 | 82 |
| Phil Klein R 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 82 |
| Holden Wilkerson R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.86 | 15.8% | 11.0% | 3.1% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 114 | 82 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.09 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 274 | -0.16 | 3.69 | 366 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 0.99 | 4.85 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |