Erian Rodriguez — OGILVIE

Erian Rodriguez P Knoxville Smokies

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%16.2%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL5045

CMD4545

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	11	1	12	63	15	10	1	9%	1.1	16.2%	19.8%	-3.7%	2.3%	11.57	5.51	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	11	1	12	63	15	10	1	9%	1.1	23.8%	15.9%	7.9%	1.6%	11.57	4.21	—
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	26	3	69	320	74	45	5	12%	2.7	17.1%	16.6%	0.5%	2.1%	6.49	4.92	—
2023	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	26	3	69	320	74	45	5	12%	2.7	17.1%	16.6%	0.5%	2.1%	6.49	4.92	—
2023	21	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	26	3	69	320	74	45	5	12%	2.7	23.1%	14.1%	9.1%	1.6%	6.49	3.85	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	87	365	76	37	3	54%	3.6	15.7%	11.8%	3.9%	1.1%	3.41	3.90	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	87	365	76	37	3	54%	3.6	15.7%	11.8%	3.9%	1.1%	3.41	3.90	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	13	87	365	76	37	3	54%	3.6	20.8%	10.1%	10.7%	0.8%	3.41	3.08	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	90	377	76	35	5	100%	5.0	16.1%	10.3%	5.8%	1.4%	3.19	3.81	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	90	377	76	35	5	100%	5.0	16.1%	10.3%	5.8%	1.4%	3.19	3.81	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	90	377	76	35	5	100%	5.0	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	1.3%	3.19	3.30	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	19	2	40	208	31	35	4	11%	2.1	11.4%	19.9%	-8.4%	2.7%	7.20	6.14	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	19	2	40	208	31	35	4	11%	2.1	11.4%	19.9%	-8.4%	2.7%	7.20	6.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	CHC	2	2	5	31	6	3	0	100%	2.6	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	0.0%	13.50	2.69	—
2026	24	AA RAW	CHC	17	0	35	177	25	32	4	0%	2.0	14.1%	18.1%	-4.0%	2.3%	6.23	5.44	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CHC	5	0	6	24	4	3	1	0%	1.1	16.2%	12.0%	4.2%	2.5%	5.00	5.00	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	46	232	35	38	5	—	—	15.0%	16.3%	-1.3%	2.0%	6.93	6.00	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CHC	78	0	82	347	62	38	9	0%	1.1	17.8%	11.0%	6.8%	2.5%	4.83	4.76	-0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	78	0	82	347	65	37	9	0%	1.1	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	2.6%	4.71	4.66	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	77	0	81	342	65	36	9	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.6%	8.3%	2.6%	4.68	4.68	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	75	0	79	332	69	33	9	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.9%	11.0%	2.8%	4.56	4.48	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	72	0	75	318	66	32	9	0%	1.0	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	2.9%	4.59	4.61	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	CHC	67	0	71	299	61	31	9	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.4%	9.9%	3.1%	4.71	4.79	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	CHC	34	0	36	152	27	17	4	0%	1.1	17.8%	11.0%	6.8%	2.5%	4.83	4.76	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	52	0	55	232	44	25	6	0%	1.1	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	2.6%	4.71	4.66	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	60	0	63	266	50	28	7	0%	1.1	18.9%	10.6%	8.3%	2.6%	4.68	4.68	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	63	0	66	279	58	28	8	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.9%	11.0%	2.8%	4.56	4.48	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	63	0	66	279	58	28	8	0%	1.0	20.6%	10.1%	10.5%	2.9%	4.59	4.61	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	CHC	61	0	64	270	55	28	8	0%	1.0	20.3%	10.4%	9.9%	3.1%	4.71	4.79	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		333	0	350	1478	292	154	41	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.4%	9.3%	2.8%	4.67	4.28	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	88	23	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.4%	9.3%	2.8%	4.67	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		98	37	298	1333	207	189	23	38%	3.0	15.5%	14.2%	1.4%	1.7%	4.89	4.54	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	25	200	894	139	127	16	38%	3.0	15.5%	14.2%	1.4%	1.7%	4.89	4.54	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erian Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	16.2%	12.0%	2.5%	—	4.70	18.5%	7.7%	246	-0.30	—	—	—
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	87
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	87
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	87
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	86
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	86
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	85
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	85
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	84
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	84
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	84
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	83
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	83
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	83
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	83
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	83
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	83
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	82
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	82
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.28	14.8%	3.5%	163	+0.78	2.59	367	82
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	77	19.1%	10.7%	1.05	4.72
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59