Adrian Rodriguez

Adrian Rodriguez P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 192 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.56

FIP5.56

K%27.3%

BB%22.4%

K-BB%4.9%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	14	0	20	103	35	28	2	0%	1.4	23.1%	34.0%	-10.9%	2.7%	7.78	6.92	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	14	0	20	103	35	28	2	0%	1.4	34.0%	27.2%	6.8%	1.9%	7.78	5.13	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	29	115	43	13	1	0%	1.5	27.8%	13.3%	14.6%	0.0%	3.14	2.43	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	29	115	43	13	1	0%	1.5	37.4%	11.3%	26.1%	0.9%	3.14	1.91	—
2023	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	30	1	34	153	33	32	2	3%	1.1	16.0%	24.7%	-8.7%	1.6%	5.08	5.74	—
2023	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	30	1	34	153	33	32	2	3%	1.1	16.0%	24.7%	-8.7%	1.6%	5.08	5.74	—
2023	22	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	30	1	34	153	33	32	2	3%	1.1	21.6%	20.9%	0.7%	1.3%	5.08	4.76	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	35	0	42	212	74	54	6	0%	1.2	26.9%	29.3%	-2.4%	3.5%	6.64	6.46	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	35	0	42	212	74	54	6	0%	1.2	26.9%	29.3%	-2.4%	3.5%	6.64	6.46	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	35	0	42	212	74	54	6	0%	1.2	34.9%	25.5%	9.4%	2.8%	6.64	5.29	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	41	176	69	30	1	0%	1.4	33.7%	20.7%	13.1%	0.0%	3.76	2.87	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	41	176	69	30	1	0%	1.4	33.7%	20.7%	13.1%	0.0%	3.76	2.87	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	0	41	176	69	30	1	0%	1.4	39.2%	17.0%	22.2%	0.6%	3.76	2.24	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	17	0	18	90	21	17	3	0%	1.1	16.7%	21.7%	-4.9%	5.4%	9.00	7.41	—
YTD	25	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	17	0	18	90	21	17	3	0%	1.1	16.7%	21.7%	-4.9%	5.4%	9.00	7.41	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	TEX	4	0	4	21	6	4	0	0%	1.0	28.6%	19.0%	9.5%	0.0%	11.25	3.10	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	TEX	13	0	14	69	15	13	3	0%	1.1	21.7%	18.8%	2.9%	4.3%	8.36	6.04	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TEX	36	0	38	160	43	34	5	0%	1.0	27.2%	21.1%	6.1%	2.8%	5.42	5.42	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	TEX	15	0	16	68	18	14	2	0%	1.1	27.2%	21.1%	6.1%	2.8%	5.42	5.42	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	69	19	14	2	0%	1.1	27.2%	21.1%	6.1%	2.8%	5.42	5.04	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	234	172	25	0%	1.1	27.2%	21.1%	6.1%	2.8%	5.42	5.04	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		145	1	183	849	212	206	17	1%	1.3	24.9%	24.3%	0.7%	2.1%	5.52	5.20	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		159	1	200	930	232	226	19	1%	1.3	24.9%	24.3%	0.7%	2.1%	5.52	5.20	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.56	27.3%	22.4%	2.8%	—	5.42	27.2%	6.1%	38	-0.14	—	—	—
Conor Grammes R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	28.6%	16.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	20.8%	1.1%	128	-0.12	4.11	171	85
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	82
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	81
Evan Johnson R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	23.6%	17.6%	2.4%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	81
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	80
Manuel Alvarez R 2021 · 5.26 FIP	25	SU	5.26	24.4%	19.5%	3.2%	.333	5.39	18.3%	-1.0%	52	+0.13	4.58	154	79
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	78
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.65	25.3%	12.2%	161	-2.34	3.44	256	78
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	78
Keegan Collett R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	25.8%	19.0%	2.8%	.343	6.91	16.3%	-5.3%	32	+2.06	3.93	184	77
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	77
Bryce McGowan R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	23	SU	4.41	23.4%	16.0%	2.3%	.327	4.33	19.2%	6.2%	99	-0.08	3.71	178	77
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	77
Joey Stock R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	23.8%	18.5%	2.4%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	121	77
Jace Beck R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	23	SU	4.77	29.7%	22.5%	2.4%	.373	4.07	27.1%	14.3%	139	-0.70	4.03	211	76
Eduardo Herrera R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.9%	16.8%	2.5%	.397	4.26	21.8%	3.6%	75	-0.40	4.13	127	76
Indigo Diaz R 2023 · 5.05 FIP	24	SU	5.05	23.7%	16.2%	3.5%	.355	4.99	16.6%	3.8%	76	-0.06	1.70	202	76
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	76
Tim Naughton R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	25	SU	4.84	22.9%	20.9%	1.9%	.337	4.18	23.4%	10.3%	128	-0.66	2.93	305	76
Trey Benton R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	23.8%	13.9%	3.0%	.366	2.92	18.1%	7.4%	31	-1.57	2.92	139	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	27.2%	21.5%	1.10	5.46
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
José Leclerc ('24)	1.7	57	31.6%	12.8%	0.76	3.33