Juan Arnaud
P
Brooklyn Cyclones
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 164 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 116
ERA5.10
FIP5.10
K%19.4%
BB%13.8%
K-BB%5.6%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | 18 | 1 | 31 | 158 | 34 | 30 | 3 | 6% | 1.7 | 14.6% | 23.7% | -9.1% | 2.7% | 5.87 | 6.33 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | 18 | 1 | 31 | 158 | 34 | 30 | 3 | 6% | 1.7 | 21.5% | 19.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 5.87 | 5.09 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Mets | 15 | 0 | 21 | 93 | 22 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.1% | 24.2% | -8.1% | 2.8% | 4.71 | 6.34 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Mets | 15 | 0 | 21 | 93 | 22 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.7% | 19.4% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 4.71 | 4.81 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 32 | 0 | 40 | 185 | 49 | 30 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.6% | 19.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 4.02 | 4.46 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 32 | 0 | 40 | 185 | 49 | 30 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.5% | 16.2% | 10.3% | 0.5% | 4.02 | 3.22 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 48 | 210 | 56 | 23 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.5% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 1.1% | 3.40 | 3.53 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 48 | 210 | 56 | 23 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.7% | 11.0% | 15.7% | 0.5% | 3.40 | 2.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 29 | 0 | 31 | 137 | 46 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 14.3% | 11.6% | 4.6% | 2.93 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 43 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 13.8% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 5.10 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.4% | 13.8% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 5.10 | 5.10 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 83 | 358 | 89 | 48 | 11 | — | — | 24.8% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.4% | 13.8% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 5.10 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 46 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 12.4% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.91 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 48 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.75 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 49 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.63 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 20 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 12.4% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.91 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 32 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.75 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 39 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 98 | 0 | 103 | 433 | 91 | 50 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.31 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 97 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 4.31 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 129 | 1 | 170 | 783 | 151 | 140 | 17 | 1% | 1.3 | 19.2% | 17.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 4.07 | 4.94 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 151 | 1 | 200 | 919 | 177 | 164 | 20 | 1% | 1.3 | 19.2% | 17.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 4.07 | 4.94 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Arnaud (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.10 | 19.4% | 13.8% | 2.7% | — | 4.71 | 20.9% | 9.1% | 162 | -0.39 | — | — | — |
| Alaska Abney R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.83 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.88 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 104 | -0.95 | 3.31 | 207 | 94 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 92 |
| Max Alba R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 92 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.55 | 18.3% | 14.4% | 2.1% | .265 | 4.56 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 58 | +0.01 | 4.55 | 155 | 91 |
| Kieran Lovegrove R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.13 | 17.9% | 12.6% | 3.5% | .273 | 4.66 | 19.3% | 4.5% | 76 | -0.47 | 3.77 | 215 | 90 |
| Jhondaniel Medina R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.54 | 19.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | .261 | 5.50 | 19.3% | 4.4% | 35 | +0.96 | 4.45 | 167 | 89 |
| Davison Palermo R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.15 | 19.0% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .246 | 5.00 | 18.3% | 5.9% | 148 | +0.85 | 4.15 | 191 | 89 |
| Bailey Dees R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.23 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .248 | 4.32 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 278 | +0.09 | 3.40 | 330 | 89 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 89 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 89 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 20.5% | 14.5% | 2.2% | .238 | 4.73 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 61 | +0.31 | 4.42 | 161 | 89 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 89 |
| Matt Brill R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.94 | 20.8% | 16.3% | 2.8% | .248 | 3.84 | 19.4% | 4.9% | 60 | -1.10 | 3.75 | 161 | 89 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.76 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 3.0% | .254 | 4.52 | 17.5% | 6.3% | 154 | -0.24 | 4.09 | 183 | 89 |
| Colby Blueberg R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.55 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .310 | 4.02 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 110 | -0.53 | 2.36 | 229 | 89 |
| Pat Light R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.11 | 172 | 89 |
| Matt Lollis R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .237 | 5.05 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.46 | 4.59 | 120 | 88 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.97 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.89 | 4.08 | 168 | 88 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 88 |
| Ralston Cash R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.78 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .240 | 3.92 | 23.0% | 11.0% | 185 | -0.86 | 3.03 | 242 | 88 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 20.5% | 12.2% | 1.06 | 4.86 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |