Juan Arnaud — OGILVIE

Juan Arnaud P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 164 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%19.4%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	18	1	31	158	34	30	3	6%	1.7	14.6%	23.7%	-9.1%	2.7%	5.87	6.33	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 2	18	1	31	158	34	30	3	6%	1.7	21.5%	19.0%	2.5%	1.9%	5.87	5.09	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	15	0	21	93	22	18	2	0%	1.4	16.1%	24.2%	-8.1%	2.9%	4.71	6.40	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	15	0	21	93	22	18	2	0%	1.4	16.1%	24.2%	-8.1%	2.9%	4.71	6.40	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	15	0	21	93	22	18	2	0%	1.4	23.7%	19.4%	4.3%	2.2%	4.71	4.81	—
2024	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	32	0	40	185	49	30	1	0%	1.3	19.6%	19.1%	0.5%	0.9%	4.02	4.34	—
2024	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	32	0	40	185	49	30	1	0%	1.3	19.6%	19.1%	0.5%	0.9%	4.02	4.34	—
2024	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	32	0	40	185	49	30	1	0%	1.3	26.5%	16.2%	10.3%	0.5%	4.02	3.22	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	48	210	56	23	1	0%	1.4	19.5%	11.7%	7.7%	0.9%	3.40	3.43	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	48	210	56	23	1	0%	1.4	19.5%	11.7%	7.7%	0.9%	3.40	3.43	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	48	210	56	23	1	0%	1.4	26.7%	11.0%	15.7%	0.5%	3.40	2.47	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	46	0	52	242	74	39	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	18.5%	5.0%	3.6%	2.79	5.44	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	46	0	52	242	74	39	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	18.5%	5.0%	3.6%	2.79	5.44	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	NYM	46	0	52	242	74	39	7	0%	1.1	30.6%	16.1%	14.5%	2.9%	2.79	4.15	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYM	51	0	54	227	46	30	6	0%	1.1	20.4%	13.4%	7.0%	2.7%	5.03	4.94	-0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	52	0	54	230	48	28	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	12.2%	8.7%	2.7%	4.85	4.75	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYM	22	0	23	97	20	13	3	0%	1.0	20.4%	13.4%	7.0%	2.7%	5.03	4.94	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	34	0	36	152	32	19	4	0%	1.1	21.0%	12.2%	8.7%	2.7%	4.85	4.75	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	250	52	32	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	12.7%	8.1%	2.7%	4.92	4.45	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	108	24	0%	1.1	20.7%	12.7%	8.1%	2.7%	4.92	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		146	1	191	888	172	165	19	1%	1.3	19.4%	18.6%	0.8%	2.1%	3.90	4.99	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	1	200	928	180	172	20	1%	1.3	19.4%	18.6%	0.8%	2.1%	3.90	4.99	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Arnaud (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	19.4%	15.1%	2.7%	—	4.84	20.7%	7.9%	108	-0.41	—	—	—
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	93
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	93
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	92
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	92
Ben Hecht R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	18.3%	14.4%	1.9%	.265	4.51	22.7%	9.8%	58	+0.12	4.39	155	91
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	90
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	90
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	90
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	89
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	89
Luis Ramirez R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.71	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.97	3.71	104	89
Gabriel Ponce R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	23	SU	4.45	20.5%	14.5%	2.3%	.238	4.61	23.9%	9.0%	61	+0.16	4.45	161	89
Kieran Lovegrove R 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.9%	12.6%	3.2%	.273	4.46	19.3%	4.5%	76	-0.46	3.79	215	89
Jhondaniel Medina R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	23	SU	4.54	19.3%	13.9%	2.4%	.261	5.25	19.3%	4.4%	35	+0.71	4.39	167	89
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	88
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	88
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	88
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	88
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	88
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	88

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	20.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.04
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84