Christian Rodriguez

Christian Rodriguez P St. Lucie Mets

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.79

FIP5.79

K%18.2%

BB%18.4%

K-BB%-0.2%

ROS IP24

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	10	0	14	70	16	12	1	0%	1.4	15.5%	21.4%	-5.9%	1.8%	5.14	5.51	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	10	0	14	70	16	12	1	0%	1.4	15.5%	21.4%	-5.9%	1.8%	5.14	5.51	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	10	0	14	70	16	12	1	0%	1.4	22.9%	17.1%	5.7%	1.4%	5.14	4.31	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	3	51	234	59	36	5	18%	3.0	17.4%	18.9%	-1.5%	3.1%	3.16	5.71	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	3	51	234	59	36	5	18%	3.0	17.4%	18.9%	-1.5%	3.1%	3.16	5.71	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	3	51	234	59	36	5	18%	3.0	25.2%	15.4%	9.8%	2.1%	3.16	4.17	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	41	184	41	31	0	4%	1.5	15.7%	20.3%	-4.6%	0.0%	4.20	4.34	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	41	184	41	31	0	4%	1.5	15.7%	20.3%	-4.6%	0.0%	4.20	4.34	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	1	41	184	41	31	0	4%	1.5	22.3%	16.8%	5.4%	0.0%	4.20	3.37	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	32	4	77	349	82	34	8	12%	2.4	17.4%	11.5%	5.9%	3.0%	4.66	4.72	—
YTD	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	32	4	77	349	82	34	8	12%	2.4	17.4%	11.5%	5.9%	3.0%	4.66	4.72	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	NYM	32	4	77	349	82	34	8	12%	2.4	23.5%	9.7%	13.8%	2.3%	4.66	3.61	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYM	76	0	80	336	67	52	9	0%	1.0	20.1%	15.5%	4.6%	2.7%	5.40	5.24	-0.6
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYM	79	0	82	348	74	47	9	0%	1.0	21.2%	13.5%	7.6%	2.7%	5.06	4.89	-0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYM	81	0	85	357	78	43	10	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.2%	9.6%	2.7%	4.80	4.66	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYM	82	0	86	362	80	41	10	0%	1.0	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	2.7%	4.62	4.51	+0.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYM	82	0	86	362	81	41	10	0%	1.0	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	2.7%	4.54	4.49	+0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYM	80	0	84	356	80	40	10	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.3%	11.0%	2.7%	4.53	4.53	+0.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYM	78	0	82	346	77	40	10	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.5%	10.7%	2.8%	4.58	4.61	-0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYM	74	0	78	330	79	36	10	0%	1.1	24.0%	10.9%	13.1%	3.0%	4.51	4.47	+0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYM	70	0	74	310	73	35	10	0%	1.1	23.6%	11.2%	12.4%	3.2%	4.59	4.65	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYM	37	0	39	165	33	25	4	0%	1.1	20.1%	15.5%	4.6%	2.7%	5.40	5.24	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYM	57	0	60	253	54	34	7	0%	1.1	21.2%	13.5%	7.6%	2.7%	5.06	4.89	-0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYM	67	0	70	296	64	36	8	0%	1.0	21.8%	12.2%	9.6%	2.7%	4.80	4.66	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYM	72	0	76	321	71	36	9	0%	1.1	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	2.7%	4.62	4.51	+0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYM	74	0	78	329	74	37	9	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	2.7%	4.54	4.49	+0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYM	74	0	78	329	74	37	9	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.3%	11.0%	2.7%	4.53	4.53	+0.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYM	73	0	77	325	72	37	9	0%	1.1	22.2%	11.5%	10.7%	2.8%	4.58	4.61	-0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYM	70	0	74	312	75	34	9	0%	1.1	24.0%	10.9%	13.1%	3.0%	4.51	4.47	+0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYM	67	0	70	296	70	33	9	0%	1.0	23.6%	11.2%	12.4%	3.2%	4.59	4.65	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		593	0	622	2627	586	311	74	0%	1.0	22.3%	11.8%	10.5%	2.8%	4.69	4.25	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	100	24	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.8%	10.5%	2.8%	4.69	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		87	8	183	837	141	137	19	9%	2.1	16.9%	16.3%	0.5%	2.3%	4.17	4.98	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	9	200	913	154	149	21	9%	2.1	16.9%	16.3%	0.5%	2.3%	4.17	4.98	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.79	18.2%	18.4%	2.8%	—	4.92	21.0%	7.3%	247	-0.87	—	—	—
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	88
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	85
Keith Rogalla R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	21	SU	4.87	15.9%	19.1%	1.3%	.299	3.52	21.2%	9.5%	24	-1.35	3.10	113	84
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	84
Jonathan Jimenez R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	19	SU	5.41	16.4%	16.2%	3.0%	.333	5.09	14.1%	2.2%	178	-0.32	3.49	189	84
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	84
Yovanny Cabrera R 2022 · 6.15 FIP	21	SU	6.15	17.5%	19.5%	3.8%	.274	4.91	18.2%	1.9%	128	-1.24	4.39	243	83
Jose Pena Jr. R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	20	SU	6.67	13.6%	25.8%	2.6%	.292	3.81	22.3%	9.1%	116	-2.86	3.48	176	83
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	83
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	83
Yoel Espinal R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	22	SU	4.63	21.0%	21.4%	1.1%	.284	4.52	22.9%	5.6%	157	-0.11	3.86	231	83
Brett Hanewich R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	22	SU	5.18	15.9%	17.6%	2.2%	.372	4.32	20.3%	2.8%	108	-0.86	4.24	134	82
Geison Urbaez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	21	SW	5.03	14.1%	18.2%	1.5%	.322	4.71	15.5%	4.7%	112	-0.32	4.04	241	82
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	82
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	82
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	82
Juan Martinez R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	20	SW	5.12	17.4%	20.8%	1.6%	.314	5.54	15.4%	-0.3%	31	+0.42	4.03	122	82
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	82
Omar Ventura R 2018 · 5.82 FIP	21	SU	5.82	15.8%	21.6%	2.4%	.254	3.53	19.5%	3.1%	30	-2.29	3.53	125	82
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	76	22.0%	12.3%	1.08	4.77
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39