Christian Rodriguez
P
St. Lucie Mets
Age 21
RHP
6'0" / 160 lbs
A
2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 24 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 107
ERA4.69
FIP4.69
K%21.6%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%9.6%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets Orange | 10 | 0 | 14 | 70 | 16 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.5% | 21.4% | -5.9% | 1.7% | 5.14 | 5.44 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets Orange | 10 | 0 | 14 | 70 | 16 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.9% | 17.1% | 5.7% | 1.4% | 5.14 | 4.31 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 3 | 51 | 234 | 59 | 36 | 5 | 18% | 3.0 | 17.4% | 18.9% | -1.5% | 3.2% | 3.16 | 5.76 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 3 | 51 | 234 | 59 | 36 | 5 | 18% | 3.0 | 25.2% | 15.4% | 9.8% | 2.1% | 3.16 | 4.17 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 1 | 41 | 184 | 41 | 31 | 0 | 4% | 1.5 | 15.7% | 20.3% | -4.6% | 0.0% | 4.20 | 4.34 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 1 | 41 | 184 | 41 | 31 | 0 | 4% | 1.5 | 22.3% | 16.8% | 5.4% | 0.0% | 4.20 | 3.37 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 23 | 2 | 46 | 206 | 55 | 17 | 3 | 9% | 2.0 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 1.9% | 4.08 | 3.70 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 0 | 24 | 103 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.69 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.6% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.69 | 4.69 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 71 | 309 | 77 | 29 | 6 | — | — | 25.0% | 9.5% | 15.5% | 1.9% | 4.29 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 0 | 26 | 109 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 13 | 53 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.04 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 95 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 78 | 6 | 152 | 694 | 121 | 117 | 12 | 8% | 2.0 | 17.5% | 16.8% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 3.90 | 4.74 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 8 | 200 | 911 | 159 | 153 | 16 | 8% | 2.0 | 17.5% | 16.8% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 3.90 | 4.74 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Christian Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 21.6% | 11.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.42 | 22.6% | 11.9% | 26 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Marman R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.98 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .270 | 5.27 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.29 | 3.98 | 117 | 88 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.48 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.48 | 3.28 | 181 | 88 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.9% | .330 | 4.23 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.34 | 3.09 | 195 | 88 |
| Jeremy Beasley R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.71 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .273 | 4.08 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 234 | -0.63 | 3.17 | 337 | 87 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 86 |
| Mason Fox R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.59 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .260 | 7.31 | 21.3% | 4.8% | 30 | +3.72 | 3.59 | 112 | 86 |
| Justin Meis R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.80 | 25.6% | 13.6% | 2.1% | .300 | 5.11 | 18.2% | 5.5% | 261 | +1.31 | 3.80 | 385 | 86 |
| Cole Gordon R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 86 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.94 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.08 | 3.28 | 146 | 86 |
| Caleb Freeman R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.98 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .267 | 5.17 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 58 | +1.19 | 3.98 | 222 | 86 |
| Owen Holt R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 86 |
| Kyle Hinton R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.17 | 23.5% | 15.0% | 2.1% | .275 | 5.66 | 17.7% | -0.7% | 75 | +1.49 | 4.17 | 106 | 86 |
| Brandyn Sittinger R 2028 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.67 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 3.1% | .324 | 4.02 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 72 | -0.65 | 3.50 | 152 | 86 |
| Rolddy Muñoz R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.14 | 21.4% | 13.7% | 2.0% | .342 | 3.51 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 149 | -0.63 | 3.27 | 271 | 86 |
| Sean Isaac R 2028 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.27 | 19.5% | 12.3% | 2.3% | .342 | 3.78 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 128 | -0.49 | 3.26 | 155 | 86 |
| David Garner R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .282 | 4.65 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.94 | 154 | 86 |
| Audry Lugo R 2025 · 4.05 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.05 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .247 | 5.27 | 15.6% | -0.4% | 77 | +1.22 | 4.05 | 113 | 86 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .278 | 5.78 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.74 | 4.04 | 104 | 86 |
| Reiss Knehr R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .267 | 5.07 | 18.8% | 7.2% | 171 | +0.83 | 3.37 | 395 | 86 |
| Luis Alvarado R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.24 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .276 | 5.27 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 140 | +0.03 | 5.04 | 162 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 25 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 1.06 | 4.60 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |