Edgar Moreta
P
St. Lucie Mets
+0.2
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'4" / 192 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.4 · 2028
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.6%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%12.7%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2028
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets Orange | 13 | 13 | 53 | 217 | 52 | 17 | 3 | 16.3% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 3.42 | 3.90 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 19 | 13 | 69 | 307 | 73 | 24 | 9 | 17.2% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 4.72 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 12 | 9 | 48 | 208 | 52 | 13 | 6 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 4.10 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | NYM | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 21.6% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | NYM | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 46 | 17 | 6 | 22.5% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 48 | 17 | 6 | 23.2% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 50 | 18 | 7 | 23.5% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.28 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 50 | 17 | 7 | 23.7% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 50 | 17 | 7 | 23.8% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 49 | 17 | 6 | 23.7% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 48 | 17 | 6 | 23.6% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.27 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23.4% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 44 | 16 | 6 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.39 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 39 | 16 | 6 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.56 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 37 | 15 | 6 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.66 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 34 | 15 | 6 | 21.8% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 44 | 35 | 170 | 732 | 127 | 65 | 26 | 17.3% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 4.14 | 4.75 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 41 | 200 | 863 | 150 | 77 | 31 | 17.3% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 4.14 | 4.75 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Edgar Moreta (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 21.6% | 8.9% | 3.2% | — | 4.31 | 23.1% | 14.7% | 148 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 95 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.79 | 14.8% | 4.1% | 103 | -0.00 | 4.73 | 149 | 92 |
| Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 92 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 92 |
| Clark Beeker R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.34 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.30 | 4.04 | 287 | 91 |
| Austin Smith R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 90 |
| Chris Gau R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.18 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.58 | 2.98 | 211 | 90 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 89 |
| Corey Copping R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.13 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .265 | 4.57 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 179 | +0.44 | 3.39 | 214 | 89 |
| Tyler Bray R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.22 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.84 | 2.82 | 152 | 89 |
| Matt Pidich R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .303 | 4.09 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 115 | -0.33 | 4.07 | 196 | 88 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.33 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.7% | .250 | 4.37 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.04 | 4.33 | 130 | 88 |
| Gus Varland R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.26 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .294 | 5.73 | 18.1% | 5.7% | 105 | +1.47 | 2.40 | 272 | 88 |
| Addison Russ R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.08 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.47 | 3.07 | 194 | 88 |
| Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 88 |
| Devon Roedahl R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.67 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 100 | +0.73 | 3.94 | 122 | 88 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2028 · 4.37 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.37 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.86 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.49 | 4.37 | 412 | 88 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.83 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .241 | 5.00 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 108 | +1.17 | 3.83 | 144 | 87 |
| Scott Williams R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.66 | 20.2% | 10.6% | 3.5% | .256 | 2.89 | 18.5% | 11.2% | 42 | -1.77 | 2.89 | 119 | 87 |
| Josh Advocate R 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 3.68 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | -0.06 | 3.68 | 118 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $9M | +$5M | ||