Edgar Moreta

P St. Lucie Mets

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 192 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1057ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	19	ROKDSL Mets Oran…	13	13	53	3.42	2.83	24.0%	7.8%	—	K 16.3% · BB 9.8% · FIP 3.94
2024	20	MIX2 levels	19	13	69	4.72	3.73	23.8%	7.8%	—	K 17.2% · BB 9.3% · FIP 5.28
2025	21	ANYM	12	9	48	4.10	3.37	25.0%	6.2%	—	K 18.5% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.88
2026	22	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYM	—	—	0	4.70	4.70	18.1%	8.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBNYM	4	4	22	4.61	4.57	19.2%	8.1%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBNYM	5	5	29	4.54	4.50	19.9%	8.1%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command50

CompsNick Fraze (age 23) · Andrew Quezada (age 24) · Ricky Castro (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%18.1%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	13	13	53	217	52	17	3	100%	4.1	16.3%	9.8%	6.5%	1.8%	3.42	3.94	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	13	13	53	217	52	17	3	100%	4.1	24.0%	7.8%	16.1%	1.4%	3.42	2.83	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	69	307	73	24	9	68%	3.6	17.2%	9.3%	7.9%	4.5%	4.72	5.28	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	69	307	73	24	9	68%	3.6	17.2%	9.3%	7.9%	4.5%	4.72	5.28	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	13	69	307	73	24	9	68%	3.6	23.8%	7.8%	16.0%	2.9%	4.72	3.73	—
2025	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	12	9	48	208	52	13	6	75%	4.0	18.5%	7.4%	11.1%	4.4%	4.10	4.88	—
2025	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	12	9	48	208	52	13	6	75%	4.0	18.5%	7.4%	11.1%	4.4%	4.10	4.88	—
2025	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	12	9	48	208	52	13	6	75%	4.0	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	2.9%	4.10	3.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.1%	8.3%	9.8%	3.1%	4.70	4.70	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	52	221	42	18	7	100%	5.8	19.2%	8.1%	11.1%	3.1%	4.61	4.57	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	44	186	37	15	6	100%	5.5	19.9%	8.1%	11.8%	3.0%	4.54	4.50	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	7	7	44	185	37	15	6	100%	6.3	20.2%	8.1%	12.2%	3.0%	4.49	4.47	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	7	7	43	180	37	15	6	100%	6.1	20.3%	8.2%	12.1%	3.1%	4.49	4.50	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	4	4	22	93	18	8	3	100%	5.5	19.2%	8.1%	11.1%	3.1%	4.61	4.57	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	5	5	29	122	24	10	4	100%	5.8	19.9%	8.1%	11.8%	3.0%	4.54	4.50	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	35	148	30	12	4	100%	5.8	20.2%	8.1%	12.2%	3.0%	4.49	4.47	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	36	152	31	12	5	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.2%	12.1%	3.1%	4.49	4.50	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	21	123	518	103	42	16	100%	5.8	20.0%	8.1%	11.9%	3.1%	4.52	4.12	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	168	69	26	100%	5.9	20.0%	8.1%	11.9%	3.1%	4.52	4.12	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		44	35	170	732	127	65	27	80%	3.9	17.3%	8.9%	8.4%	3.7%	4.14	4.77	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	41	200	863	149	77	32	80%	3.9	17.3%	8.9%	8.4%	3.7%	4.14	4.77	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ASt. Lucie Mets · 48 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.88 (+1.52)K% 25.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.740	18.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.180	7.38%
HR / BF /BF	2.88%	÷0.855	×1.300	4.39%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASt. Lucie Mets · 50 IPFIP 3.66 → 5.20 (+1.55)K% 23.7% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.68%	—	×0.740	17.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.77%	—	×1.180	10.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.826	×1.300	4.14%

Result: FIP 3.66 → 5.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Mets · 19 IPFIP 3.79 → 5.52 (+1.72)K% 24.1% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.05%	—	×0.680	16.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.06%	—	×1.250	6.33%
HR / BF /BF	3.80%	÷0.974	×1.400	5.46%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 3.79 → 5.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Mets Orange · 53 IPFIP 2.83 → 3.94 (+1.12)K% 24.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.96%	—	×0.680	16.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.83%	—	×1.250	9.79%
HR / BF /BF	1.38%	÷1.084	×1.400	1.79%

Result: FIP 2.83 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edgar Moreta (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	18.1%	8.3%	3.1%	—	4.52	19.7%	11.6%	140	-0.18	—	—	—
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	91
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	91
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	88
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	87
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	87
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	86
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	86
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	86
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	86
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	85
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	84
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	84
Sergio Mitre R 2004 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	15.2%	7.8%	2.5%	.357	4.16	13.2%	6.5%	250	+0.00	3.55	602	84
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	82
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	82
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	82
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	82
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	82
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.16	357	82
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	47	19.5%	8.2%	1.19	4.57
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*