Edgar Moreta — OGILVIE

Edgar Moreta P St. Lucie Mets

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 192 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%17.3%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	13	13	53	217	52	17	3	100%	4.1	16.3%	9.8%	6.5%	1.8%	3.42	3.94	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	13	13	53	217	52	17	3	100%	4.1	16.3%	9.8%	6.5%	1.8%	3.42	3.94	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	13	13	53	217	52	17	3	100%	4.1	24.0%	7.8%	16.1%	1.4%	3.42	2.83	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	69	307	73	24	9	68%	3.6	17.2%	9.3%	7.9%	4.5%	4.72	5.28	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	69	307	73	24	9	68%	3.6	17.2%	9.3%	7.9%	4.5%	4.72	5.28	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	13	69	307	73	24	9	68%	3.6	23.8%	7.8%	16.0%	2.9%	4.72	3.73	—
2025	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	12	9	48	208	52	13	6	75%	4.0	18.5%	7.4%	11.1%	4.4%	4.10	4.88	—
2025	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	12	9	48	208	52	13	6	75%	4.0	18.5%	7.4%	11.1%	4.4%	4.10	4.88	—
2025	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	12	9	48	208	52	13	6	75%	4.0	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	2.9%	4.10	3.37	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	NYM	1	1	4	17	3	1	1	100%	4.0	17.3%	8.4%	8.9%	3.2%	4.84	4.84	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	64	271	51	22	9	100%	5.3	18.7%	8.2%	10.5%	3.1%	4.72	4.67	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	66	277	54	22	9	100%	5.5	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	3.1%	4.60	4.55	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	66	281	57	22	9	100%	6.0	20.2%	8.0%	12.2%	3.1%	4.52	4.48	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	66	281	57	22	9	100%	6.0	20.4%	8.0%	12.5%	3.1%	4.48	4.46	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	66	277	57	22	9	100%	6.0	20.4%	8.0%	12.4%	3.1%	4.49	4.49	+0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	64	268	54	22	9	100%	5.8	20.3%	8.2%	12.1%	3.2%	4.54	4.58	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	32	135	25	11	4	100%	5.3	18.7%	8.2%	10.5%	3.1%	4.72	4.67	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	46	194	38	16	6	100%	5.8	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	3.1%	4.60	4.55	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	54	228	46	18	7	100%	6.0	20.2%	8.0%	12.2%	3.1%	4.52	4.48	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	58	245	50	20	8	100%	5.8	20.4%	8.0%	12.5%	3.1%	4.48	4.46	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	59	249	51	20	8	100%	5.9	20.4%	8.0%	12.4%	3.1%	4.49	4.49	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	58	245	50	20	8	100%	5.8	20.3%	8.2%	12.1%	3.2%	4.54	4.58	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	53	307	1296	260	105	40	100%	5.8	20.1%	8.1%	12.0%	3.1%	4.54	4.14	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	169	68	26	100%	5.8	20.1%	8.1%	12.0%	3.1%	4.54	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		44	35	170	732	127	65	27	80%	3.9	17.3%	8.9%	8.4%	3.7%	4.14	4.77	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	41	200	863	149	77	32	80%	3.9	17.3%	8.9%	8.4%	3.7%	4.14	4.77	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edgar Moreta (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	17.3%	8.4%	3.2%	—	4.57	19.5%	11.4%	196	-0.27	—	—	—
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	89
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	89
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	88
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	87
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	87
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	304	84
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	84
Jack Perkins R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	21	SP-	4.34	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.91	16.4%	7.5%	156	+0.57	4.34	176	83
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	82
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	82
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	82
Jesus Lugo R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP-	3.79	17.8%	8.1%	2.1%	.243	6.08	19.8%	10.5%	45	+2.29	3.79	113	82
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	82
Ubert Mejias R 2023 · 3.74 FIP	22	SP-	3.74	14.2%	7.9%	1.5%	.326	4.43	14.0%	8.0%	264	+0.69	3.74	326	81
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	81
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	81
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	81
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	81
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	62	19.7%	8.1%	1.21	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79