Marwys Cabrera — OGILVIE

Marwys Cabrera P ACL Royals

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 175 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.62

FIP5.62

K%19.1%

BB%17.2%

K-BB%1.9%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Gold	11	9	30	132	28	19	0	82%	2.8	14.4%	18.0%	-3.6%	0.0%	4.15	4.16	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Gold	11	9	30	132	28	19	0	82%	2.8	14.4%	18.0%	-3.6%	0.0%	4.15	4.16	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Gold	11	9	30	132	28	19	0	82%	2.8	21.2%	14.4%	6.8%	0.0%	4.15	3.13	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	11	39	166	41	21	0	100%	3.6	16.8%	15.8%	1.0%	0.0%	2.75	3.68	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	11	39	166	41	21	0	100%	3.6	16.8%	15.8%	1.0%	0.0%	2.75	3.68	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	11	39	166	41	21	0	100%	3.6	24.7%	12.7%	12.0%	0.0%	2.75	2.62	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	13	7	34	168	36	27	2	54%	2.6	14.6%	20.1%	-5.5%	1.8%	6.95	5.39	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	13	7	34	168	36	27	2	54%	2.6	14.6%	20.1%	-5.5%	1.8%	6.95	5.39	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	13	7	34	168	36	27	2	54%	2.6	21.4%	16.1%	5.4%	1.2%	6.95	4.14	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	8	30	148	28	22	3	67%	2.5	12.9%	18.6%	-5.7%	2.8%	6.67	5.92	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	8	30	148	28	22	3	67%	2.5	12.9%	18.6%	-5.7%	2.8%	6.67	5.92	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	KC	12	8	30	148	28	22	3	67%	2.5	18.9%	14.9%	4.1%	2.0%	6.67	4.50	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	KC	7	7	37	157	32	23	4	100%	5.3	20.2%	14.8%	5.4%	2.8%	5.31	5.19	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	KC	3	3	18	76	15	11	2	100%	6.0	20.2%	14.8%	5.4%	2.8%	5.31	5.19	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	77	16	11	2	100%	4.6	20.2%	14.8%	5.4%	2.8%	5.31	4.81	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	175	120	22	100%	4.8	20.2%	14.8%	5.4%	2.8%	5.31	4.81	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		47	35	133	614	90	111	7	74%	2.8	14.7%	18.1%	-3.4%	1.2%	5.01	4.79	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	53	200	923	136	167	11	74%	2.8	14.7%	18.1%	-3.4%	1.2%	5.01	4.79	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marwys Cabrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.62	19.1%	17.2%	2.9%	—	5.19	20.2%	5.4%	37	-0.43	—	—	—
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	89
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	86
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	86
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	85
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	84
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	84
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	82
Randry De Leon R 2023 · 6.45 FIP	18	SP-	6.45	17.7%	20.2%	4.2%	.308	4.83	18.4%	3.3%	123	-1.62	4.37	153	82
Luis Reyes R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	17	SP-	6.24	18.4%	20.7%	3.8%	.333	4.28	17.1%	5.1%	129	-1.96	4.02	167	82
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	81
Deivy Mendez R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	19	SP-	4.43	20.3%	20.5%	0.8%	.308	4.98	22.9%	3.4%	81	+0.55	2.84	130	81
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	81
Jace Beck R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP-	5.13	21.1%	23.7%	1.5%	.347	5.32	25.7%	2.8%	50	+0.19	4.03	211	81
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	80
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	80
Yeury Tatiz R 2021 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	17.4%	15.6%	3.5%	.295	5.10	13.0%	-1.0%	100	-0.44	3.73	221	80
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	79
Alfred Vega R 2021 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	20.5%	16.0%	2.1%	.203	4.66	13.4%	0.6%	81	+0.10	2.07	234	79
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	79
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	19.8%	15.7%	1.10	5.42
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41