Manuel CabreraSS Fredericksburg Nationals
Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 155 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
2026 ROS PROJECTION143 act + 95 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†44
AVG/OBP/SLG.183 / .252 / .252
PA95
HR1
K%30
BB%6
BABIP262
ISO69
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -18.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-18BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +6.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+7REPTotal WAR: -0.90-0.9WAR
0.00.51.00.20.3+$4M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 39
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT25
scouting grade only
POWER39
scouting grade only
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED55
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202317 ROKDSL Nationals — 179155 18401 13557 81 116217161378 45167 317 170 -12 — — — — — —
202317 ROKDSL Nationals — 179148 23601 20407 81 155286216502 61200 2211 242 44 — — — — — —
202418 ROKDSL Nationals — 146121 25411 94814 123 207333281614 74329 336 255 53 — — — — — —
202418 ROKDSL Nationals — 146113 30511 173614 123 265424354778 88377 2512 364 136 — — — — — —
202519 ROKFCL Nationals — 115104 15100 7604 20 144226154380 10341 526 177 -6 — — — — — —
202519 ROKFCL Nationals — 115100 22201 11414 20 220322270592 50362 3610 282 74 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD20 AWSH — 143131 20303 9602 31 153218244463 92246 426 217 24 -12 +0 +0 +2 +4 -0.7
YTD20 AWSH — 143125 28504 15422 31 224317360677 136300 2910 307 93 -1 +0 +0 +2 +4 0.5
ROS20 AWSH 0% 9587 16301 6292 21 183252252504 69260 306 242 44 -6 +0 +0 +1 +3 -0.2
ROS20 MLBWSH 0% 01 0000 000 00 —— 260 —— 230 34 — — +0 +0 — —
FULL20 AWSH — 143132 20303 9602 31 152218242461 91243 426 217 24 -12 +0 +0 +2 +4 -0.7
TOT20 AWSH — 238218 36604 15894 52 165232247479 82253 376 227 32 -18 +0 +0 +3 +7 -0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202721 MLBWSH 34% 273247 49915 19805 51 198269304573 105268 297 259 56 -13 +1 +0 +3 +8 -0.2
202822 MLBWSH 48% 381344 701327 281086 82 203275314589 110271 287 268 63 -16 +1 +0 +4 +11 -0.0
202923 MLBWSH 54% 450407 841629 331257 93 206277322599 115273 287 273 67 -17 +1 +0 +5 +13 0.2
203024 MLBWSH 55% 494446 9418211 371368 103 211283334617 123274 287 277 70 -17 +1 +0 +5 +14 0.3
202721 MLBWSH 34% 9485 17302 7272 20 200277306582 106268 297 247 47 -6 +0 +0 +1 +3 -0.2
202822 MLBWSH 48% 185167 34614 13523 41 204273323597 120271 287 256 54 -10 +0 +0 +2 +5 -0.2
202923 MLBWSH 54% 244220 46915 18684 51 209281327608 118273 287 261 58 -12 +1 +0 +3 +7 -0.1
203024 MLBWSH 55% 274248 521016 20764 62 210279331610 121274 287 265 61 -12 +0 +0 +3 +8 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 797721 14928317 5822313 174 207278325603 118273 287 260 57 -39 +2 +0 +9 +23 -0.6
/ 162G— — 650588 12123214 4718211 143 206277323600 117272 287 260 57 -32 +2 +0 +7 +18 -0.5
Career— — 21331911 37168835 15264153 5614 194272293565 99270 307 255 53 -113 +6 +0 +23 +60 -2.4
/ 162G— — 650582 11321211 4619516 174 194271294565 100269 307 255 53 -34 +2 +0 +7 +18 -0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202317 ROKDSL Nationals — 179148 23601 20407 81 155286216502 61200 2211 242 44 -11 +1 — — +5 -0.5
202418 ROKDSL Nationals — 146113 30511 173614 123 265424354778 88377 2512 364 136 +6 +1 — — +4 1.2
202519 ROKFCL Nationals — 115100 22201 11414 20 220322270592 50362 3610 282 74 -3 +0 — — +3 0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA
91,648311209276313+29+566.46.7
/162664120+11.9+22.42.6pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA
91,844192219297308+17+525.65.8
/16266471+6.1+18.72.0pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09
career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA
101,524292226288351+19+143.84.3
/162664131+8.5+6.21.6pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA
61,5403047225280350+4+334.24.2
/1626641320+1.8+14.41.8pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA
71,680226230279335+9+212.02.0
/16266492+3.7+8.50.8pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons
39411819206274317+10+90.10.2
/1626641313+7.1+6.30.0pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA
71,9012139231275323+14-6-1.1-1.1
/162664714+4.9-2.1-0.4pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Manuel Cabrera (OGILVIE) 20 20→25 34→39 50→55 50 165/232/247 82253 45 37% 6% 32 -0.9 ————————— —————————
✕Gilbert Gomez
2012 · A 		20 39→35 40 52→50 40 193/252/284 91274 714 31% 6% 46 -2.0 201/271/278 77305 48 32% 8% 53 -1.5 191/271/264742963733%9%45-1.3
✕Ricardo Rosario
2023 · A 		20 40 37→40 50→55 42 191/251/266 76262 412 28% 6% 40 -2.4 205/277/292 87289 819 29% 8% 59 -1.1 203/290/29289267112926%9%63-0.4
✕Jose Meza
2023 · A 		20 41→34 41→45 48→50 40 199/264/295 96283 910 32% 6% 54 -1.4 202/295/301 99301 98 33% 10% 69 -0.4 182/291/2769427591033%11%61-0.6
✕Ismael Alcantara
2019 · A 		20 39→28 38→45 51→50 41 185/255/266 81281 513 34% 7% 43 -2.2 211/277/317 106330 915 36% 7% 64 -0.8 193/256/311118287121635%6%52-0.7
✕Misael Urbina
2022 · A 		20 36→29 40→45 51→50 48 177/255/271 94227 713 24% 8% 44 -2.1 175/249/266 91263 610 33% 8% 40 -2.4 157/237/2367924751036%9%25-2.0
✕Janelfry Zorrilla
2011 · A 		20 41 40→45 50 42 202/257/291 89262 713 26% 6% 49 -1.8 224/280/353 129280 1310 24% 6% 76 +0.0 226/277/35312728514825%5%72-0.1
✕Gilberto Vizcarra
2019 · A 		20 35 38→45 47→40 46 171/243/241 71215 63 23% 7% 32 -3.0 206/263/288 82261 64 22% 6% 51 -1.7 226/269/325992749121%4%62-0.3
✕Denzer Guzman
2023 · A 		19 38→36 40→45 47→50 42 190/245/284 93260 79 29% 6% 43 -2.2 187/246/287 100286 98 36% 7% 43 -2.2 205/268/331127286151232%7%61-0.7
✕Christian Cerda
2023 · A 		20 40→37 40 50→40 50 194/278/287 93254 69 25% 9% 58 -1.2 189/282/293 104252 114 27% 11% 62 -0.9 173/268/27510122312227%11%50-1.2
✕Rafael Morel
2022 · A 		20 38 40 51→50 39 187/248/282 94270 813 32% 6% 43 -2.2 195/260/276 81313 710 37% 7% 47 -1.9 186/257/26579290101037%7%41-1.1
✕Rey Duran
2009 · A 		20 36 41→50 49→40 41 183/243/277 94256 96 31% 6% 40 -2.4 213/267/338 125268 145 25% 6% 66 -0.6 210/263/34913924619223%5%65-0.3
✕Jose Cordoba
2023 · A 		20 37 41→45 44→55 39 187/251/282 95271 109 33% 6% 46 -2.0 202/259/294 92279 611 28% 6% 51 -1.7 199/258/2929326841526%6%47-0.8
✕Jorge Quiterio
2015 · A 		20 36 40→45 46→45 39 183/234/269 86255 88 31% 5% 33 -2.9 194/235/279 85299 69 35% 5% 36 -2.7 177/200/2598327361237%2%14-1.1
✕Ramon Beltre
2017 · A 		20 44→28 38→40 52→50 46 210/263/288 79254 511 19% 6% 50 -1.7 208/242/295 87282 78 28% 4% 43 -2.2 190/215/273832717732%3%23-2.0
✕Frankeny Fernandez
2017 · A 		20 36 38→40 53→60 42 174/248/255 81275 519 36% 8% 37 -2.6 193/258/268 75281 510 31% 7% 44 -2.1 172/238/215432393627%7%20-1.1
✕Glenn Santiago
2021 · A 		20 43 37→40 55→45 46 200/274/277 78262 313 23% 7% 54 -1.4 206/269/298 92281 79 27% 7% 56 -1.3 184/247/261772747833%7%35-1.1
✕Jose Bellorin
2011 · A 		20 42 39→40 47→50 42 203/257/285 81265 610 25% 6% 47 -1.9 223/280/308 85271 69 19% 6% 63 -0.8 239/295/3167827661015%6%69-0.2
✕Chris Roller
2018 · A 		21 37 37→50 53→55 45 178/254/255 77243 412 27% 8% 40 -2.4 208/276/322 114297 811 31% 7% 66 -0.6 179/262/313134284161640%8%57-0.7
✕Emilio King
2010 · A 		20 40 37→45 51→40 43 190/274/270 79258 49 26% 6% 53 -1.5 203/253/290 87301 64 33% 4% 47 -1.9 213/250/309963117233%3%47-1.0
✕Jason Lopez
2018 · A 		20 40 38→55 47→45 44 192/261/269 76264 59 28% 7% 46 -2.0 207/248/334 127286 136 31% 5% 57 -1.2 189/235/31412426513833%5%43-0.9