Manuel Cabrera — OGILVIE

Manuel CabreraSS Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 155 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION268 act + 8 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†42

AVG/OBP/SLG.143 / .250 / .143

PA8

HR0

K%38

BB%12

BABIP263

ISO63

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$8M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE51

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	179	148	23	6	0	1	20	40	7	8	1	155	286	216	502	61	200	22	11	242	50	-11	+1	—	—	+4	-0.6
2024	18	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	146	113	30	5	1	1	17	36	14	12	3	265	424	354	778	88	377	25	12	364	132	+6	+1	—	—	+3	1.0
2025	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	115	100	22	2	0	1	11	41	4	2	0	220	322	270	592	50	362	36	10	282	77	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	179	155	18	4	0	1	13	56	7	8	1	116	217	161	378	45	152	31	7	169	1	-21	+1	—	—	+4	-1.6
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	146	120	24	4	1	1	10	50	14	12	3	200	333	275	608	75	294	34	7	256	59	-7	+1	—	—	+3	-0.3
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	115	104	14	1	0	0	7	59	4	2	0	135	217	144	362	10	303	51	6	175	5	-13	+0	—	—	+2	-1.0
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	179	155	18	4	0	1	13	56	7	8	1	116	217	161	378	45	168	31	7	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	179	148	23	6	0	1	20	40	7	8	1	155	286	216	502	61	200	22	11	242	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	146	120	24	4	1	1	10	50	14	12	3	200	333	275	608	75	329	34	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	146	113	30	5	1	1	17	36	14	12	3	265	424	354	778	88	377	25	12	364	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	115	104	14	1	0	0	7	59	4	2	0	135	217	144	362	10	311	51	6	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	—	115	100	22	2	0	1	11	41	4	2	0	220	322	270	592	50	362	36	10	282	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	179	157	18	4	0	1	13	56	7	8	1	115	217	159	376	45	152	31	7	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	146	121	24	4	1	1	10	50	14	12	3	198	333	273	606	74	294	34	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	115	103	14	1	0	0	7	59	4	2	0	136	217	146	363	10	303	51	6	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	179	157	18	4	0	1	13	56	7	8	1	115	217	159	376	45	152	31	7	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	146	121	24	4	1	1	10	50	14	12	3	198	333	273	606	74	294	34	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	115	103	14	1	0	0	7	59	4	2	0	136	217	146	363	10	303	51	6	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A MLE	WSH	—	268	238	40	5	0	5	19	107	5	7	1	168	244	252	496	84	265	40	7	224	38	-20	+1	+0	+3	+6	-1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	WSH	—	16	16	4	0	0	1	0	6	0	1	0	250	250	438	688	188	333	38	0	300	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A RAW	WSH	—	252	210	46	7	0	5	31	69	5	6	1	219	333	324	657	105	289	27	12	299	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	A MLE	WSH	0%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		264	38	12	230	42	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	20	A MLE	WSH	—	276	245	41	5	0	5	20	110	5	7	1	167	244	249	493	82	265	40	7	224	38	-20	+1	+0	+3	+6	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	299	268	49	8	1	5	22	102	7	6	1	183	263	276	539	93	268	34	7	246	53	-17	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.6
2028	22	MLB MLE	WSH	48%	401	359	68	11	1	8	30	132	9	8	1	189	269	292	561	103	271	33	7	257	60	-19	+1	+0	+4	+9	-0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	WSH	54%	463	414	80	13	1	9	35	149	11	9	2	193	274	295	569	101	273	32	8	264	65	-20	+1	+0	+5	+10	-0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	503	448	88	14	1	11	39	160	11	11	2	196	277	306	583	109	275	32	8	267	67	-20	+1	+0	+5	+11	-0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	WSH	56%	523	465	91	15	1	11	41	165	12	11	2	196	278	303	581	108	275	32	8	269	68	-20	+1	+0	+6	+11	-0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	WSH	56%	533	474	93	15	1	12	42	169	12	11	2	196	278	308	586	112	275	32	8	269	68	-20	+1	+0	+6	+12	-0.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	WSH	60%	535	475	93	15	1	12	43	170	12	12	2	196	279	307	587	112	274	32	8	269	68	-20	+2	+0	+6	+12	-0.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	WSH	62%	531	471	93	15	1	12	43	169	12	11	2	197	281	310	591	113	274	32	8	268	68	-20	+1	-1	+6	+12	-0.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	WSH	63%	522	463	90	15	1	11	42	167	12	11	2	194	279	302	581	108	273	32	8	267	67	-21	+1	-1	+6	+11	-0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	103	92	17	3	0	2	8	35	2	2	0	185	265	283	547	98	268	34	8	228	53	-6	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	WSH	48%	194	172	32	5	0	4	15	64	5	4	1	186	271	285	556	99	271	33	8	239	60	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	WSH	54%	251	224	43	7	0	5	19	81	6	5	1	192	273	290	563	98	273	32	8	246	65	-11	+1	+0	+3	+5	-0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	279	249	49	8	1	6	22	88	6	6	1	197	278	309	587	112	274	32	8	250	67	-11	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	WSH	56%	293	261	51	8	1	6	23	93	7	6	1	195	278	303	581	107	274	32	8	251	68	-11	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	WSH	56%	300	266	54	9	1	7	24	95	7	6	1	203	286	323	610	120	274	32	8	252	68	-11	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	WSH	60%	319	284	56	9	1	7	25	101	7	7	1	197	278	310	588	113	274	32	8	252	68	-12	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	WSH	62%	327	291	57	9	1	7	26	104	7	7	1	196	278	306	584	110	273	32	8	251	68	-13	+1	-0	+4	+7	-0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	WSH	63%	327	291	57	9	1	7	26	105	7	7	1	196	278	306	584	110	273	32	8	250	67	-13	+1	-1	+4	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2393	2130	416	67	6	51	188	766	54	50	8	195	277	304	582	109	275	32	8	248	61	-96	+7	-1	+26	+52	-1.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	113	18	2	14	51	208	15	14	2	195	278	306	584	111	274	32	8	248	61	-26	+2	-0	+7	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4758	4223	802	130	10	93	368	1551	123	112	20	190	274	291	566	102	272	33	8	259	61	-177	+12	-2	+46	+94	-2.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	110	18	1	13	50	212	17	15	3	191	275	293	568	102	272	33	8	259	61	-27	+2	-0	+7	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
/162	664	7	9	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.8	2,551	52	53	195	274	300	+27	+18	-0.2	0.1
/162	664	14	14	+7.1	+4.7	-0.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Cabrera (OGILVIE)	20	20→25	35→40	50→55	51	169/248/237	69	264	2	4	36%	7%	42	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	39→29	38→45	51→50	41	185/255/266	81	281	5	13	34%	7%	49	-2.4	210/275/314	104	329	8	15	36%	7%	68	-1.0	190/253/306	116	287	12	16	36%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	36	38→40	53→60	42	174/248/255	81	275	5	19	36%	8%	45	-2.7	193/258/268	75	281	5	10	31%	7%	51	-2.3	172/238/215	43	239	3	6	27%	7%	30	-1.1
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	40	37→50	50→45	41	186/263/256	70	295	4	13	35%	8%	50	-2.3	197/264/292	95	299	9	5	35%	6%	59	-1.6	197/266/334	137	285	16	5	35%	7%	66	-0.6
✕Neyfy Castillo 2021 · A	20	40→31	37→45	54→55	38	188/244/263	75	289	4	11	34%	6%	44	-2.8	180/251/307	127	326	15	16	46%	7%	58	-1.7	166/238/291	125	290	16	19	46%	7%	47	-1.7
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	38	40	51→50	39	187/249/281	94	269	8	13	32%	6%	51	-2.3	196/261/274	78	315	7	10	37%	7%	53	-2.1	188/258/263	75	295	9	10	37%	7%	47	-1.2
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A	20	40→37	40	52→50	40	195/254/288	93	274	7	14	31%	6%	53	-2.1	201/272/277	76	304	4	8	32%	8%	58	-1.7	190/273/260	70	294	3	7	33%	10%	51	-1.4
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A	20	40	37→40	50→55	42	192/252/267	75	262	4	12	27%	6%	48	-2.5	202/274/290	88	285	7	19	30%	8%	61	-1.5	196/282/285	89	259	11	29	27%	9%	63	-0.8
✕Victor Tademo 2018 · A	19	39	37→40	52→55	37	189/240/263	74	277	4	14	32%	5%	42	-2.9	195/241/256	61	285	3	7	31%	5%	40	-3.0	181/217/201	20	252	0	3	27%	4%	17	-1.4
✕Miguel Rodriguez 2007 · A	20	35	37→45	48→45	34	175/223/246	71	263	5	6	34%	4%	32	-3.7	209/264/290	81	278	5	5	25%	5%	57	-1.8	217/275/301	85	280	4	3	23%	5%	63	-0.6
✕Yeuris Ramirez 2019 · A	20	33	39→40	47→50	40	163/252/248	85	260	6	8	37%	7%	45	-2.7	192/272/290	98	317	8	13	39%	7%	62	-1.4	158/238/238	80	331	8	23	50%	6%	35	-1.2
✕Lizandro Espinoza 2023 · A	20	38→24	37→45	51→60	37	182/239/259	77	286	4	10	36%	6%	40	-3.0	159/226/247	88	256	8	13	39%	7%	34	-3.5	160/233/271	111	241	12	30	37%	7%	41	-1.7
✕Jorge Quiterio 2015 · A	20	36	40→45	46→45	39	183/234/269	86	255	8	8	31%	5%	41	-3.0	194/235/279	85	299	6	9	35%	5%	43	-2.8	177/200/259	83	273	6	12	37%	2%	24	-1.1
✕Omar Meregildo 2018 · A	20	36→33	37→45	47→30	38	174/239/249	74	275	4	6	36%	6%	39	-3.1	196/254/306	110	314	10	3	38%	7%	58	-1.7	173/241/298	125	280	15	1	41%	7%	50	-1.2
✕Max George 2016 · A	20	39→38	39→45	54→55	42	186/270/274	88	290	7	14	35%	8%	57	-1.8	186/268/290	104	258	9	15	30%	8%	60	-1.6	164/253/286	122	221	13	23	31%	8%	52	-1.3
✕Rey Duran 2009 · A	20	36	41→50	49→40	41	183/243/277	94	256	9	6	31%	6%	47	-2.5	213/267/338	125	268	14	5	25%	6%	70	-0.8	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	69	-0.4
✕Christian Cairo 2021 · A	20	39→46	35→40	48→60	44	183/264/241	59	277	2	9	32%	8%	47	-2.5	186/287/267	81	289	6	15	34%	11%	63	-1.3	205/292/276	72	294	4	31	28%	9%	64	-0.8
✕Frank Rodriguez 2022 · A	20	40	36→45	48→30	43	191/262/259	68	272	4	4	30%	7%	50	-2.3	182/239/268	86	269	8	4	34%	5%	43	-2.8	183/244/267	84	244	9	1	28%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Ranfy Adon 2018 · A	20	38	39→45	52→50	38	185/244/270	85	282	6	12	35%	6%	45	-2.7	208/252/318	110	358	9	11	42%	5%	59	-1.7	176/236/282	105	327	9	25	46%	5%	44	-0.6
✕Ameilis Carvajal 2009 · A	20	41	39→40	50	48	191/281/275	84	291	6	12	33%	10%	61	-1.5	194/264/268	74	320	4	9	37%	8%	53	-2.1	140/204/175	34	267	0	8	44%	7%	9	-1.1
✕Jase Bowen 2021 · A	20	41→40	36→50	50→55	39	192/247/263	71	293	3	8	34%	6%	45	-2.7	190/249/299	109	289	12	14	37%	5%	55	-2.0	203/254/335	133	288	14	24	34%	5%	62	-0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps