Manuel Cabrera
SS Fredericksburg Nationals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKWSH | 146 | .265/.424/.354 | 1 | 12 | 51 | — | .176/.319/.218 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROKWSH | 115 | .220/.322/.270 | 1 | 2 | 5 | — | .135/.217/.144 |
| 2026 | 20 | A/ROKWSH | 268 | .221/.328/.332 | 6 | 7 | 42 | — | .174/.260/.259 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBWSH | 378 | .195/.269/.289 | 6 | 7 | 59 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBWSH | 72 | .200/.275/.302 | 1 | 1 | 65 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBWSH | 144 | .204/.279/.312 | 3 | 3 | 69 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 41
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Nationals | — | 179 | 148 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 40 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 155 | 286 | 216 | 502 | 61 | 200 | 22 | 11 | 242 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Nationals | — | 146 | 113 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 36 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 265 | 424 | 354 | 778 | 88 | 377 | 25 | 12 | 364 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 115 | 100 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 322 | 270 | 592 | 50 | 362 | 36 | 10 | 282 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 252 | 210 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 69 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 219 | 333 | 324 | 657 | 105 | 289 | 27 | 12 | 299 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 16 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 250 | 438 | 688 | 188 | 333 | 38 | 0 | 300 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 179 | 153 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 48 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 92 | 206 | 111 | 317 | 20 | 129 | 27 | 8 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 146 | 119 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 176 | 319 | 218 | 538 | 42 | 245 | 29 | 8 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 115 | 104 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 59 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 135 | 217 | 144 | 362 | 10 | 305 | 51 | 6 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 252 | 219 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 94 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 174 | 264 | 251 | 515 | 78 | 253 | 37 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 16 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 188 | 375 | 562 | 188 | 265 | 56 | 0 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 179 | 153 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 48 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 92 | 206 | 111 | 317 | 20 | 130 | 27 | 8 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Nationals | — | 179 | 148 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 40 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 155 | 286 | 216 | 502 | 61 | 200 | 22 | 11 | 242 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 146 | 119 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 176 | 319 | 218 | 538 | 42 | 269 | 29 | 8 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Nationals | — | 146 | 113 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 36 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 265 | 424 | 354 | 778 | 88 | 377 | 25 | 12 | 364 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 115 | 104 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 59 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 135 | 217 | 144 | 362 | 10 | 311 | 51 | 6 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Nationals | — | 115 | 100 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 220 | 322 | 270 | 592 | 50 | 362 | 36 | 10 | 282 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 268 | 235 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 102 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 166 | 252 | 238 | 490 | 72 | 259 | 38 | 8 | 231 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 268 | 226 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 75 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 221 | 328 | 332 | 660 | 111 | 291 | 28 | 12 | 299 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 179 | 155 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 48 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 90 | 206 | 110 | 315 | 19 | 129 | 27 | 8 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 146 | 120 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 175 | 319 | 217 | 536 | 42 | 245 | 29 | 8 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 115 | 103 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 59 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 136 | 217 | 146 | 363 | 10 | 305 | 51 | 6 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 268 | 239 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 102 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 163 | 252 | 234 | 486 | 71 | 254 | 38 | 8 | 231 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 146 | 120 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 175 | 319 | 217 | 536 | 42 | 245 | 29 | 8 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 115 | 103 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 59 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 136 | 217 | 146 | 363 | 10 | 305 | 51 | 6 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 268 | 239 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 102 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 163 | 252 | 234 | 486 | 71 | 254 | 38 | 8 | 231 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | WSH | 0% | 378 | 341 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 107 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 195 | 269 | 289 | 558 | 94 | 262 | 28 | 8 | 256 | 59 | -18 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | WSH | 34% | 209 | 188 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 58 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 275 | 303 | 578 | 103 | 265 | 28 | 8 | 264 | 65 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | WSH | 48% | 298 | 268 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 81 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 204 | 279 | 314 | 593 | 110 | 267 | 27 | 8 | 270 | 69 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | WSH | 53% | 370 | 332 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 99 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 207 | 283 | 322 | 604 | 114 | 269 | 27 | 8 | 274 | 72 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | WSH | 55% | 407 | 365 | 76 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 108 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 210 | 285 | 327 | 612 | 117 | 270 | 27 | 8 | 277 | 74 | -13 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | WSH | 56% | 430 | 386 | 82 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 35 | 113 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 211 | 287 | 331 | 618 | 120 | 271 | 26 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -13 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +9 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | WSH | 55% | 437 | 392 | 82 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 116 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 210 | 286 | 328 | 614 | 118 | 271 | 27 | 8 | 278 | 74 | -13 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +9 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | WSH | 55% | 436 | 392 | 82 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 35 | 116 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 209 | 284 | 324 | 608 | 115 | 270 | 27 | 8 | 276 | 73 | -14 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +9 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | WSH | 53% | 427 | 384 | 79 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 115 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 206 | 281 | 318 | 599 | 112 | 269 | 27 | 8 | 272 | 70 | -15 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | WSH | 57% | 416 | 375 | 77 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 114 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 204 | 278 | 311 | 589 | 107 | 267 | 27 | 8 | 268 | 67 | -16 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | WSH | 34% | 72 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 275 | 302 | 577 | 102 | 264 | 28 | 8 | 263 | 65 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | WSH | 48% | 144 | 130 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 204 | 279 | 312 | 592 | 109 | 267 | 27 | 8 | 269 | 69 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | WSH | 53% | 195 | 174 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 52 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 283 | 320 | 603 | 113 | 269 | 27 | 8 | 274 | 72 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | WSH | 55% | 223 | 200 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 59 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 209 | 285 | 326 | 610 | 116 | 270 | 26 | 8 | 277 | 74 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | WSH | 56% | 239 | 215 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 63 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 211 | 286 | 329 | 616 | 118 | 271 | 26 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | WSH | 55% | 240 | 215 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 64 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 210 | 286 | 327 | 613 | 117 | 270 | 27 | 8 | 278 | 74 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | WSH | 55% | 238 | 214 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 64 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 284 | 323 | 606 | 114 | 270 | 27 | 8 | 275 | 73 | -8 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | WSH | 53% | 228 | 205 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 62 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 206 | 281 | 317 | 598 | 111 | 269 | 27 | 8 | 272 | 70 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | WSH | 57% | 237 | 213 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 65 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 203 | 278 | 310 | 587 | 106 | 267 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 67 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +5 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1816 | 1631 | 339 | 62 | 8 | 36 | 146 | 488 | 24 | 33 | 8 | 208 | 283 | 322 | 605 | 114 | 272 | 27 | 8 | 274 | 64 | -61 | +3 | -2 | +19 | +39 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 121 | 22 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 175 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 207 | 283 | 322 | 605 | 115 | 271 | 27 | 8 | 274 | 64 | -22 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4297 | 3837 | 755 | 133 | 18 | 74 | 344 | 1216 | 78 | 93 | 22 | 197 | 276 | 299 | 575 | 102 | 265 | 28 | 8 | 262 | 64 | -124 | +6 | -4 | +38 | +78 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 114 | 20 | 3 | 11 | 52 | 184 | 12 | 14 | 3 | 197 | 276 | 298 | 575 | 102 | 265 | 28 | 8 | 262 | 64 | -22 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 252 PAwOBA .299 → .235 (−65)K% 27.4% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.38% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 8.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.98% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 21.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 4.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.92% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .299 → .235; ISO .105 → .081; BABIP .289 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Nationals · 16 PAwOBA .290 → .171 (−120)K% 37.5% → 54.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 54.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 24.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 7.76% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .290 → .171; ISO .188 → .107; BABIP .333 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Nationals · 115 PAwOBA .276 → .176 (−99)K% 35.7% → 51.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.65% | ÷0.995 | ×1.440 | — | — | 51.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.57% | ÷1.012 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 5.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.48% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.20% | ÷0.946 | ×0.820 | ×0.996 | ×1.008 | 28.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.39% | ÷1.138 | ×0.720 | ×0.996 | ×1.008 | 2.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.929 | ×0.720 | ×0.996 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.328 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 166, 1B 89, 2B 128, 3B 86, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .276 → .176; ISO .050 → .024; BABIP .362 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Nationals · 146 PAwOBA .358 → .244 (−114)K% 24.7% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.66% | ÷1.043 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.64% | ÷1.053 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 9.59% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.87% | ÷1.018 | ×0.680 | ×0.995 | ×1.008 | 20.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.49% | ÷0.970 | ×0.600 | ×0.995 | ×1.008 | 4.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.995 | ×1.008 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.30% | ÷1.207 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.51% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 104, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 109, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .358 → .244; ISO .088 → .051; BABIP .377 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Nationals · 179 PAwOBA .241 → .165 (−76)K% 22.3% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.35% | ÷1.023 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.17% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 8.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.91% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.81% | ÷0.989 | ×0.680 | ×0.973 | ×1.022 | 10.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.078 | ×0.600 | ×0.973 | ×1.022 | 3.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.946 | ×0.600 | ×0.973 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.008 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.44% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 116, 3B 89, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .241 → .165; ISO .061 → .033; BABIP .200 → .129. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).